All right deep-league nerds, here are your best draft bets for holds. The list below consciously avoids including relievers in battles for the closer spot (Andrew Miller, Arodys Vizcaino, Jeremy Jeffress, etc.) to start the season, because if you are drafting a player based on his ability to give you holds, you don’t necessarily want him pitching the ninth right away. If you’re in a save/hold league, we’d recommend using a blending of our various rankings.

Anyway, the rankings below are the relievers we believe will be most likely to rack up holds. Other factors that affect the rankings include overall team potential (likelihood to have the lead in games late) and a lack of competition for late inning work. Good luck!

1. Tony Watson
2. Dellin Betances
3. Joe Smith
4. Kevin Siegrist
5. Roberto Osuna
6. Sergio Romo
7. Joakim Soria
8. Addison Reed
9. Darren O’Day
10. Pedro Strop
11. Koji Uehara
12. Keone Kela
13. Luke Gregerson
14. Tyler Clippard
15. Kevin Jepsen
16. Kelvin Herrera
17. Carson Smith
18. Jumbo Diaz
19. Chris Hatcher
20. Nate Jones

Below is a ranking of our top 15 middle relievers, based on their likelihood to get saves this season — not necessarily their skill level. As an example, Kelvin Herrera is a very good reliever who’s unlikely to get any save chances, because he’s stuck behind Wade Davis and Joakim Soria. So although Herrera is a much better pitcher than a number of pitchers listed below, he’s not ranked.

1. Andrew Miller, New York Yankees — The third-ranked reliever according to ESPN’s Player Rater may have lost his closing role on paper, but the 30-game suspension for Aroldis Chapman means that Miller should grab the first eight to ten saves of the Yankee season. If he can produce a streak of scoreless appearances and converted saves similar to last spring’s, he might not stop there.

2. Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays — 20-year-old Osuna came out of nowhere to be very good in the ninth for Toronto last season, and the only thing standing between him and a repeat performance is Drew Storen — who, don’t forget, broke his thumb late last season while raging at his poor performance. Although Osuna’s future is likely in the rotation, he might get one more shot at closing.

3. Jeremy Jeffress, Milwaukee Brewers — Jeffress is rap-battling with lefty Will Smith for the closer’s job in Milwaukee, and has the stuff to be a good fit. Jeffress throws hard, gets ground balls, and has a solid K/9 rate.

4. Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves — Jason Grilli is 39, and coming off a torn Achilles tendon, while Vizcaino (and his high-90s fastball) went 9-for-10 in 2015 save opps. With the Braves expected to reside in the NL East cellar, even a successful season for Grilli could end in a trade, elevating Vizcaino for a second year.

5. Kevin Quackenbush, San Diego Padres — Quackenbush grabbed six saves in 2014, and his road back to the ninth was eased (to say the least) when the Padres replaced Craig Kimbrel with Fernando Rodney this offseason.

6. Jumbo Diaz, Cincinnati Reds — Diaz has a great fastball that induces swinging strikes at an impressive rate, and he’s backing up J.J. Hoover, who doesn’t seem to have the stuff to close in such a homer-friendly ballpark.

7. Joaquin Benoit, Seattle Mariners — Benoit has never been a team’s closer at the start of a season, yet he’s earned at least one save in each of his last eight seasons (barring 2009, when he was out with rotator cuff surgery). He’s solid, and he’s backing up Steve Cishek, so expect the streak to continue.

8. Kevin Jepsen, Minnesota Twins — After Glen Perkins got hurt last year, Jepsen took over and did such a good job that he stayed in the role after Perkins returned. He’ll likely be the first call if Perkins succumbs again to the back trouble that has shortened his past two seasons.

9. Sergio Romo, San Francisco Giants — Romo and Santiago Casilla have been passing the mantle of Giants closer back and forth since 2012. Although Casilla has had the job this time since June 2014, Romo is coming off a better statistical season.

10. Ryan Madson, Oakland A’s — Although Sean Doolittle appears to have recovered well from his torn labrum, his decision to avoid surgery increases his risk going forward. Madson is best-positioned behind him.

11. Dellin Betances, New York Yankees — New York’s relievers are so good that we can’t leave Betances out, especially with Chapman starting the season on the bench. If the team struggles, it may decide that its bullpen uber-Cerberus is worth more as a bargaining chip, perhaps giving Betances a shot in New York or elsewhere.

12. Pedro Strop, Chicago Cubs — Strop has a fantastic slider, and anything can happen in a bullpen managed by Joe Maddon.

13. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals — Soria has a history as an effective closer, beginning with the Royals. If things break right, he might get another chance.

14. Luke Gregerson, Houston Astros — We put Luke this far down so he doesn’t realize he’s on the list; see, he still thinks he’s closing. He has the ability, and we think he’ll show it if Ken Giles gets hurt or struggles.

15. The survivor, Philadelphia Phillies — As Philadelphia rebuilds, the back end of the bullpen is a giant question mark. We can’t tell you yet which of their closer reclamation projects and middle-relief innings-eaters will make the roster (Ernesto Frieri? Luis Garcia? Jeanmar Gomez? James Russell?), but whoever does has a good chance at grabbing a handful of saves to go with the team’s handful of wins.

March 7, 2016

We have reviewed all 30 team’s bullpens so you know who we think will be the closer to start the season and who else will be relevant at the back end of each bullpen. Now let’s rank each closer from number 30 to number 1.

Tier 6 – Might not have jobs by May 1

30. Fernando Rodney, San Diego Padres – Rodney’s strikeouts dropped last season and his WHIP rose to 1.40.  He will also be 39 when the season starts. None of those numbers bode well for a closer, and that lands Rodney at the bottom of our list.
29. David Hernandez, Philadelphia Phillies – Hernandez missed all of 2014 after having Tommy John surgery, but had a decent season in his return last year.  Still, he has never been a closer for a full season and with a career ERA over 4.00, it’s hard to have that much faith in him going into this season.
28. J.J. Hoover, Cincinnati Reds – Manager Bryan Price says the closer’s job is Hoover’s to lose, and chances are he will do just that.  Two years ago, Hoover gave up 13 homers, and last season he had less than two strikeouts for every walk.
27. Jason Grilli, Atlanta Braves – Grilli expects to be the Braves’ closer and he had a strong season last year.  However, there are concerns about his age and injuries, and Arodys Vizcaino proved he could close last year, going nine for ten in save opportunites.
26. Will Smith, Milwaukee Brewers – Smith struck out over 90 batters last season and would likely be higher on this list if he was guaranteed the job.  However, he will be competing with Jeremy Jeffress and he only has one career save, so it’s hard to rank him any higher at this point.
25. Steve Cishek, Seattle Mariners – Cishek had put together back-to-back solid seasons before a disastrous 2015, which saw him record more losses (6) than saves (4). But he does, at least, have a guaranteed job, as the Mariners have already announced that he’ll get another shot at closing to start the season. He’ll likely be on a short leash with Joaquin Benoit waiting behind him.

Tier 5 – The enigma

24. Drew Storen, Toronto Blue Jays – Storen went from one of the best young closers in baseball to a headcase of a middle reliever, and was sent to the Blue Jays in the offseason to compete for the 9th inning job. His rough second half and the fact that he doesn’t have the job yet are the reasons that he’s not higher on this list — indeed, he could have a bad spring and lose out on the closer role to Roberto Osuna. But he could also find his stuff again and save 40+ games on what should be an excellent Blue Jays team.

Tier 4 – You could do worse

23. Jake McGee, Colorado Rockies – He’s good, he’s just in Colorado now, where only three players have ever recorded 35-save seasons. (And those three relievers — Jose Jimenez, Shawn Chacon, and Huston Street — combined for a 4.54 ERA.)
22. Brad Ziegler, Arizona Diamondbacks – Defy your FIP once, and you might be headed back to earth the next season. Defy it every single year of your 8-year career, and, well, maybe it shouldn’t actually apply to you any more. Ziegler’s ground-ball-inducing submarine delivery and infinitesimal home run rate have allowed him to flourish in the late innings despite a career 5.9 K/9. There’s no reason he can’t post another 30-save (and 36-K) season, like he did last year — he’s just unlikely to contribute in any categories.
21. Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants – Another guy who consistently outperforms his FIP and is kind of hard to trust as a result despite several years of solid results. Draft Casilla and you probably won’t be disappointed, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to trip over ourselves recommending him.
20. Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays – Boxberger was lights out in 2014, earning himself the closer role last year, but despite 41 saves, he wasn’t the same pitcher, as he finished the year with 30 fewer strikeouts and 12 more walks in about the same number of innings. The upsides: Jake McGee is gone, so he won’t have much competition, and a return to form could mean you get a great steal in the draft.
19. Sean Doolittle, Oakland A’s – A few weeks ago, Doolittle wouldn’t have cracked the top 20, but he’s drawn rave reviews at camp and is already throwing as hard or harder than he did after returning from shoulder troubles last season — a great sign for this early in spring training.
18. Francisco Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers – It feels like K-Rod has been around forever, partly because he has — 2016 this will be his 15th season in the bigs. But he’s still only 34 and has never failed to average at least one strikeout per inning in his entire career.

Tier 3 – Solid options

17. Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins – His strikeouts are down, his durability is in question, but when healthy, he’s as reliable as anyone.
16. A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins – Carter Capps is visiting Dr. James Andrews, which isn’t a good sign for his prospects in 2016 and gives Ramos the chance to build on an excellent first season as closer. Could outperform his ranking here.
15. Shawn Tolleson, Texas Rangers – The Rangers were 16-23 last season when Tolleson took over the closer role and essentially rescued the entire bullpen. A key reason the Rangers surged to an AL West crown, Tolleson saved 35 games over the last three quarters of the season. At age 28, he should be entering his prime.
14. Jonathan Papelbon, Washington Nationals – As mentioned in our Nationals preview, Papelbon will likely be a perfectly reliable stopper who falls in your draft because people don’t like him very much. Which, you know, is probably fair. But if he falls too far, scoop him for the value.
13. Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels – He’ll probably never shed the “injury-prone” label, but Street has posted back-to-back 40-save seasons. We totally just jinxed him, huh?
12. Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs – The Cubs will be excellent, and Rondon would be a candidate to lead the league in saves if not for manager Joe Maddon, who tends to do weird stuff with his relievers. Still, Rondon could easily jump a tier (or two) by next season.

Tier 2 – The very good

11. Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates – Melancon led the league in saves last year and, aside from a terrible blip of a season with the Red Sox, has been very sturdy over the past few years. A slight drop in velocity affected his strikeout rate last year, but he was never a guy who blew batters away, instead relying on a mean cutter and pinpoint control.
10. David Robertson, Chicago White Sox – It’s terrifying to imagine what the Yankees bullpen would look like these days if they’d retained Robertson. His ERA has crept up the past two seasons, but his FIP remains steady and he continues to boast excellent strikeout rates.
9. Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians – We thought last year would be the year that Allen stepped into the elite, and many of his metrics suggested he did just that. His strikeout rate climbed again (99 in 69.1 innings!), he only allowed two home runs all year, and his FIP dropped to a miniscule 1.99. But he was the victim of some bad luck (.344 BABIP) and ended the year with a good-but-not-great ERA of 2.99. If his luck evens out this year, he could be one of the best.
8. Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees – Picture this scenario: The Yankees, with their aging lineup and middle-of-the-road rotation, struggle out of the gate. Their only bright spot is reliever Andrew Miller, who continues to pitch like he did last year. Chapman returns after his 30-game suspension and, after a few back-and-forth weeks, claims the job, but the Yankees struggle to an 82-80 record and Chapman only ends up with 26 saves. While perhaps not likely, that scenario is certainly in the realm of possibility, right? That’s why Chapman isn’t in our top 5 (or 3 or 1).

Tier 1 – The elite

7. Jeurys Familia, New York Mets – Familia sneaks into the top tier on the strength of a breakout 2015 campaign and the terrifying fact that he figured out how to throw his 93 mph splitter (the fastest secondary pitch in baseball by a wide margin) only starting in July. So there’s a chance he’ll be even better this season on a Mets team with high hopes. Finally, if you need more convincing, just read what the Red Sox said about Familia after facing him for the first time last August.
6. Ken Giles, Houston Astros – It must be frustrating when you post an ERA of 1.80 and people are saying things like “He wasn’t as dominant as his rookie season.” But we still love us some Ken Giles, who is already throwing harder than early last season and could lead the league in saves if everything breaks right for him on a good Astros team.
5. Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals – After taking a step back in 2014, Rosenthal regained his form in 2015, lowering his walk rate and posting a 48-save season. Still just 25 years old, Rosenthal is an especially good option in keeper/dynasty leagues.
4. Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles – If you read the above Fangraphs article on Familia, you might have picked up on this one obscure stat category that Zach Britton dominated last year: fastballs in the dirt that hitters swung at anyway. That’s how much movement is on Britton’s 96-mph sinker, which induced an 82 percent ground ball rate last season. This guy is filthy.
3. Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers – Jansen missed the first month and a half of the season in 2015 but when he returned, he was lights out.  He finished last season with 80 strikeouts, in only 52.1 innings, a 10 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio, and a WHIP of 0.78.  Jansen will be an elite closer again in 2016 and should approach 100 strikeouts with a full season of work.
2. Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox – Kimbrel struggled some to start last season and his ERA on May 13th was almost 6.00.  However, he returned to his dominant self for the rest of the season, giving up only 8 earned runs over his final 46 appearances.  Kimbrel moves to a better team for 2016 and should return 40+ saves, great strikeout numbers, and strong ratios for anybody willing to spend an early pick on him.
1. Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals – When the Royals moved Wade Davis to the bullpen in 2014, I don’t think anybody could have predicted that he would become one of the best relievers in the game.  He finished 2014 with an ERA of 1.00 and a WHIP of 0.85, and in his second full season in the bullpen, all he did was improve both of those numbers, as he finished with an ERA of 0.94 and WHIP of 0.79.  With Greg Holland now out of the mix, Davis enters 2016 as the closer for the Royals and if he can get even close to his numbers from the past two seasons, he will be the best closer in fantasy baseball.

A few notes on draft strategy:

-Our top tier is rather large this season, and while Wade Davis is wonderful, he’ll probably only be marginally better than Familia or Giles. Even if you like having a top-end closer on your roster, you probably don’t have to be among the first to draft a reliever to still end up with a great #1.

-Closers are volatile, which is why this site exists, but there aren’t quite as many red flags this season, with even the guys in Tier 4 seeming like they’ve got at least a 50 percent shot of holding their jobs all year. (By comparison, last season we had 11 closers with “moderate to major concerns” at the start of the year.) While this means there are a lot of solid draft options, it also means that it might be a little harder to win saves just by dominating the waiver wire — in the early going, anyway.

-There are a small handful of middle relievers that might be preferable to the last two or three guys on this list. Check back on Wednesday for our post on the top middle relievers.