Appreciating this remains a fluid process, especially given the recent injury news for many relievers, a second run of tiered rankings seems appropriate, especially for those who may be drafting or taking part in an auction this weekend. These rankings do not reflect average draft position (available at Fantasy Pros). Instead, they are based on blended rankings from Fangraphs (Steamer, THE BAT, and ZiPS), with my save projections fused in. I use a spreadsheet with Standings Gain Points as my guide, though there are a couple of liberties taken in the tiers below.
One does not have to take a reliever where they will be listed, but this will be a guide on relievers, not consensus group think. It’s not gospel, and if you feel differently about a reliever, target him accordingly.
Tier One
- Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
- Edwin Díaz (NYM)
This tier lost a member when Devin Williams was diagnosed with two stress fractures in his back. Others will be drafted ahead of this group, but using the data, they bubbled toward the top. No other reliever may provide the strikeout upside Díaz possesses, and Durán may take his game to a new level like Félix Bautista did last year. There’s risk with any reliever, but they present high ceilings. No one loves Clase, but he’s recorded 40-plus saves in consecutive seasons. He’s the floor play. (UPDATE: With Jhoan Durán on the injured list for Opening Day with an oblique injury, he leaves this tier for upcoming drafts)
Tier Two
- Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
- Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
- Josh Hader (HOU)
- Camilo Doval (SFG)
- Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
- David Bednar (PIT)
- Jordan Romano (TOR)
It’s the pick-your-poison tier, with Muñoz leading the way. He’s not for the risk-averse, but if he’s closer to his 2022 iteration than last year, he could be the reliever taken in the second tier this year who performs like a top-tier reliever. Iglesias and Hader will be “safer” picks, especially given their team’s propensity for contending each season. Doval could be hurt by his team’s win total. Fairbanks and Romano may not be sexy, but when healthy, produce solid numbers. It’s with trepidation keeping Bednar this high, especially if his throwing program does not move to a mound soon. Dialed back his save total and hope he’s back by mid-April.
Tier Three
- Alexis Díaz (CIN)
- Ryan Helsley (STL)
- Evan Phillips (LAD)
- Tanner Scott (MIA)
- Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
- Paul Sewald (ARI)
- Jhoan Durán (MIN)
- Clay Holmes (NYY)
- Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
- Mason Miller (OAK)
Many fantasy players may draw a line in this tier, meaning they will have one, if not two relievers, because this represents the cliff for many. There will be the never-pay-for-saves crowd in every room, which can work, especially since one can make the case for and against each of these relievers. Díaz tailed off at the end of last year, was it fatigue or the decaying K-BB percentage? Phillips stands out in his bullpen, but will the team add a veteran “closer” with experience for the playoffs? Scott has displayed zero command this spring, can he dial it back in while working on his mechanics in the backfields? Miller may emerge as a terrific high-leverage reliever, will the A’s let him? (UPDATE: With Durán’s injury, giving him 50 projected innings, which lands him between Sewald and Holmes in SGPs)
Tier Four
- Kenley Jansen (BOS)
- Michael Kopech (CWS)
- José Alvarado (PHI)
- Robert Suarez (SDP)
- Hunter Harvey (WSH)
- Carlos Estévez (LAA)
Mining for a second reliever here can make sense, and at his present price point, Suarez will enhance many team builds. Jansen did not make a splashy debut this spring, but he did record 29 saves last year in 33 chances. He does present a risk in WHIP moving forward, father time always wins. No one loves Estévez, but he has the ninth inning and his main competition has not resumed throwing with shoulder discomfort. Alvarado’s another high-risk, high-reward reliever, but his floor will not be as safe as others. Can Kopech thrive as a “closer“, or will his team even use him as one? No idea. However, his results as a reliever in 2021, especially the 25.2 K-BB percentage over 55.1 innings with 80 strikeouts cannot be overlooked. If he does well, the team can move him ahead of the trade deadline.
Tier Five
- José Leclerc (TEX)
- Robert Stephenson (LAA)
- Devin Williams (MIL)
- Jason Adam (TBR)
- Yuki Matsui (SDP)
- Aroldis Chapman (PIT)
- Alex Lange (DET)
- Griffin Jax (MIN)
- Ryan Pressly (HOU)
- A.J. Minter (ATL)
- Seranthony Domínguez (PHI)
It feels like risk may be the prevailing theme of this exercise. Stephenson and Williams still receive decent SGPs based on past pedigree, but health will determine their fantasy impacts. Adam, Matsui, Chapman, Pressly, and Minter represent handcuffs with ancillary save upside. If you believe in Lange, move him up. It’s all about the walk rate in my apprehension with him. He has great secondary offerings, but his fastball remains flat and hittable. Domínguez may be a surprise, yet, he could be a late round flier who gets double digits in saves within the Phillies’ “floating closer” concept. (UPDATE: With the Twins’ news, Jax enters this tier with a projected 10 saves by our team).
Tier Six
- Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
- Will Smith (KCR)
- Bryan Abreu (HOU)
- Joel Payamps (MIL)
- Giovanny Gallegos (STL)
- Erik Swanson (TOR)
- Josh Sborz (TEX)
- Tyler Kinley (COL)
Can Finnegan prove me wrong for a third straight year, it’s entirely possible. Beat writers keep saying it’s Payamps getting the first chance, but if he gets stuck as the HLR (highest leveraged reliever), a different Brewers reliever may provide late-round value, segue alert.
Late-Round Fliers
- Trevor Megill/Abner Uribe (MIL)
- Jordan Leasure (CWS) – stash play
- Chris Martin (BOS) – if his team trades Jansen, until he gets moved too
- James McArthur (KCR) – this year’s Alzolay
- Shelby Miller (DET) – it’s him or Jason Foley if Lange falters
Hybrids (Relievers who may work multiple innings with ancillary save upside)
- Garrett Crochet (CWS)
- Ian Hamilton (NYY)
- Chad Green (TOR)
- Sixto Sánchez (MIA)
Thanks for stopping by. Until next time, stay safe and be well.
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