Updated MLB Closer Depth Chart

Closer1st in line2nd in lineUpdatedCloser1st in line2nd in lineUpdated
BALF BautistaCanoDomínguez11/27/24ATLIglesiasJohnsonDy Lee11/27/24
BOS*Slaten*Hendriks*Chapman12/3/24MIA*Faucher*TinocoBender11/27/24
NYYD WilliamsWeaverHamilton12/13/24NYMEd.DíazGarrettD Núñez12/4/24
TBFairbanksUcetaCleavinger11/27/24PHIRomanoKerkeringAlvarado12/9/24
TORGreenY GarcíaSwanson12/10/24WAS*Law*Ferrer*Garcia11/27/24
        
CHWJ AndersonEllardBerroa11/27/24CHCHodgeTy. MillerPearson11/27/24
CLEClaseGaddisSmith11/27/24CINAl.DíazPagánSantillan11/27/24
DET*Brieske*Vest*Foley11/27/24MILTr MegillPayampsUribe12/13/24
KCErcegHarveyBubic11/27/24PITBednarD SantanaHolderman11/27/24
MINDuránJaxSands11/27/24STLHelsleyFernandezRomero11/27/24
        
HOUHaderAbreuPressly11/27/24ARI*Martinez*Puk*Ginkel11/27/24
LAAJoyceBurkeZeferjahn11/27/24COL*Kinley*HalvorsenVodnik11/27/24
OAKMillerFergusonOtañez11/27/24LAD*Treinen*Kopech*Phillips12/9/24
SEAMuñozG SantosTaylor11/27/24SDSuarezAdamEstrada11/27/24
TEXSborzChurchFesta11/27/24SFR. WalkerTy. RogersDoval11/27/24

* = closer-by-committee

Projected Closers by Team for 2025

Noting many of these situations may change based on end-of-season injury reports and off-season moves, our too-early attempt at identifying the closers for 2025 is ready before the last full slate of games on Sunday, September 29. Thanks for being a part of this season at Closer Monkey. Enjoy and be well. If we have helped this season, please leave a TIP for next season’s expenses.

American League

American League East

Baltimore Orioles – “The Mountain” will return as the closer next year. Félix Bautista recorded 33 saves with 110 strikeouts against 26 walks (35.4 K-BB%) in 2023 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He’s been throwing live bullpen sessions and will anchor this bullpen in 2025. His stock will rise appreciably with a strong spring, but fantasy managers will focus on his command. 

Boston Red SoxForecasting the Red Sox closer comes with apprehension. Although the team signed Liam Hendriks for the role in 2025, he suffered a setback with “forearm soreness”, preventing his return this season. Can he remain healthy throughout next year? Will he be effective? Those in keeper leagues should stash Justin Slaten. He flourished as a Rule 5 pick with a 1.01 WHIP and 22.3 K-BB percentage as a rookie. A wild card in this mix could be Garrett Whitlock. His splits by role: 

  • Whitlock as a SP: 109 IP, 102:23 K:BB (17.4 K-BB%), .328 weighted on-base average, 1.27 WHIP
  • Whitlock as an RP: 132.2 IP, 150:29 K:BB (22.7 K-BB%), .273 weighted on-base average, 1.05 WHIP

As of today, pedigree propels Hendriks atop the hierarchy, but his hold will be tenuous unless he’s terrific at Spring Training. 

New York Yankees – Playoff games may determine how the team handles the closer position in 2025, but Clay Holmes will be an unrestricted free agent at season’s end. Luke Weaver has emerged as the preferred save option with an adapted arsenal. He’s one of five relievers with at least 100 strikeouts this season. He’s also converted all four save chances with six wins and 22 holds through 61 appearances. Barring a free agent splurge, he lines up as the Opening Day closer. 

Tampa Bay Rays – Despite losing Pete Fairbanks, the Rays bullpen flourished in the second half. When he’s healthy, he remains the closer. He’s recorded 48 saves over the last two seasons but produced a reduced K-BB percentage and swinging strike rate in 2024. Health remains his hurdle. He begins 2025 as the closer, but change may be afoot as the season ensues. Dynasty league players should monitor Edwin Uceta and Hunter Bigge closely. 

Toronto Blue Jays – Jordan Romano underwent elbow surgery, cutting his 2024 short. He remains the team’s closer, but health will be an issue like others on this list. He could be a terrific “buy low” or a “bust,” with health being the deciding factor. Chad Green remains under contract and will fill in if injury issues resurface. 

American League Central

Chicago White SoxAfter enduring the most losses in MLB history, prognosticating a closer for a team in this steep of a rebuild remains difficult. Justin Anderson ended the season as the highest-leveraged reliever. However, since wins may be difficult again, getting a veteran reliever with “closer” experience would benefit the rebuild. Probably, the saves leader is not on the current roster. Keeper league players hope Prelander Berroa or Jordan Leasure improve in 2025. 

Cleveland GuardiansSince the start of 2022, no reliever has recorded more saves than Emmanuel Clase. He’s secured 40-plus saves in the last three years with a 0.84 WHIP over 221.2 innings. Although he’s on a team-friendly deal, it escalates in 2025 and reaches ten million in 2027. For a franchise that prefers keeping payroll down, he could be moved when his stock’s at its peak. Stay tuned. Dynasty league players will track Andrew Walters closely. 

Detroit TigersA.J. Hinch mixed and matched with aplomb while getting his team into the playoffs. Jason Foley led the team with 28 saves through 161 games. Tyler Holton recorded seven wins, eight saves, and 14 holds through 66 appearances. How far the team goes and how the bullpen performs may determine how it’s structured in 2025. For now, plan on much of the same next year unless the team targets a free agent closer for the preferred save share. 

Kansas City Royals – Although most believed Hunter Harvey would usurp the closer role from James McArthur, Lucas Erceg emerged since his acquisition. In his 23 games with the Royals, he’s converted 11 of his 13 save opportunities with 31 strikeouts against three walks across 25 innings. Despite the meltdown that injured Vinnie Pasquantino, Erceg’s been almost lights out. He should enter 2025 as the closer. 

Minnesota Twins What felt like a slam dunk has become murky. Jhoan Durán took a step back, though it’s possible his oblique injury affected his performance throughout the season. It feels like he should get a mulligan for 2024, but his spring performance should be tracked closely. Griffin Jax emerged as a trusted high-leverage option, but the team has spoken about him potentially being used as a starter. Stay tuned. 

American League West

Houston Astros – With Josh Hader signed on a long-term deal, it’s no surprise he’s the projected closer for 2025. Ryan Pressly can opt out of his contract, which may put him in play for another team’s ninth-inning duties. 

Los Angeles Angels – Good news will come in two parts next year: an emerging Ben Joyce and the return of Robert Stephenson. Joyce introduced a “splinker” into his arsenal on June 16 and produced 25 scoreless appearances in his last 27 games with 33 strikeouts against 11 walks across 31 innings. His velocity and experience at the end of the season should ensure his role as the closer in 2025. 

Oakland A’s – Many did not believe Mason Miller would be used as the closer this season. All he did was set the franchise record for saves by a rookie with 28, including throwing the last pitch at Oakland Coliseum. Reports indicate he will remain in this role moving forward, which makes him a terrific target for 2025. He’s recorded 104 strikeouts with a 0.88 WHIP through 65 innings across 55 appearances. 

Seattle Mariners – Forced into the closer role because of injuries throughout the leverage ladder, Andrés Muñoz converted 22 of 27 save chances with a 0.96 WHIP through 57.1 innings. He pitched through lingering back tightness and elbow soreness at the end of the season. Returns by Matt Brash and Gregory Santos will be pivotal for the team’s progress, but Muñoz remains atop the hierarchy, barring injury, on Opening Day next year. 

Texas Rangers – Despite hitting the jackpot on its one-year deal with Kirby Yates, he and José Leclerc will be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season. David Robertson can also opt out of his player option. This means turnover may affect the entire bullpen hierarchy, though a team which sees itself as a World Series contender next year will be aggressive in rebuilding the leverage ladder. Yates went 7-2 while converting 33 of 34 save chances for the Rangers and may return on a deal beneficial for both sides. Those in keeper leagues will monitor how Marc Church develops as a high-leverage option. 

National League

National League East

Atlanta Braves – Since his debut with Atlanta on August 5, 2022, Raisel Iglesias has logged 150 appearances, posting a 1.86 ERA (second lowest in this timeframe) with 11 wins, 67 saves, and a 0.907 WHIP. He will be entering the final year of his contract in 2025, which means change may be coming at the closer position in 2026, but for next year, he remains a reliable target for saves. 

Miami Marlins – After the team traded Tanner Scott, Calvin Faucher received the majority share of saves until he was sidelined with an injury. Jesús Tinoco took over as the most trusted high-leverage option over the last six weeks, and this may be a spring battle for roles. However, there’s no clear plan in place for the franchise, making the closer role speculative at best. There will be aging veterans with closer experience, or the team could be aggressive and trade for a reliever like Camilo Doval, who needs a change of scenery. Stay tuned. 

New York MetsRiding a second-half resurgence buoyed by throwing more four-seam fastballs and being less reliant on his slider, Edwin Díaz reestablished himself as a top-tier closer. Can he maintain this throughout the entirety of 2025? Here’s hoping so. He will be a top target in preseason drafts and rankings. 

Philadelphia Phillies – After using the “floating closer” concept most of the season, Rob Thomson used Carlos Estévez as his closer after the trade deadline. However, Estévez and Jeff Hoffman will be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season. Will the Phillies try re-signing them or turn to Orion Kerkering as the closer of the future? 

Washington Nationals – Entering his last season under team control, Kyle Finnegan will be the closer on Opening Day. However, as a team on the rise, the Nationals may enhance their leverage ladder this winter via free agency or trades. Coming off a career-high in saves, Finnegan may be a fade depending on his preseason price points. 

National League Central

Chicago CubsPorter Hodge ended 2024 with 18 scoreless appearances over his last 19 games, converting eight of nine save chances with 26 strikeouts against nine walks. Because the front office’s modus operandi has not included overpaying for a closer, a pieced-together bullpen may be in store again next season. This puts Hodge at the top of the list for being the closer on Opening Day, but off-season roster construction will determine if this happens. 

Cincinnati RedsStreaky in his performances in high-leverage events and spotty at times with his command, Alexis Díaz remains a fantasy enigma. He’s recorded 55 saves in the last two years, but his declining K-BB percentage and rising WHIP do not foster trust from fantasy managers. He projects as the Opening Day closer, but his potential volatility makes him a risky investment for 2025. 

Milwaukee Brewers – Tough decisions await the Brewers this winter. Devin Williams will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2025 season. Fantasy players recall past situations where this franchise traded players at their peak ahead of free agency. Will this happen once again? “The Airbender” was terrific after missing the first four months of the season but converted 14 of 15 save chances while being scoreless in 20 of his 22 regular season appearances, recording 38 strikeouts against 11 walks. Those in keeper leagues should track Craig Yoho‘s progress this spring closely. 

Pittsburgh Pirates – What felt like an easy prognostication at the beginning of the season has become much more complex as it concludes. David Bednar was removed from the closer role and was ineffective this season after undergoing two oblique injuries. He’s dealt with side or back injuries in three of the past four seasons. Can he regain his role, or will the team bring pending free agent Aroldis Chapman back on another one-year deal? 

St. Louis Cardinals – A revamped bullpen anchored by Ryan Helsley resulted in a franchise record 49 saves. Andrew Kittredge and JoJo Reyes performed well in set-up roles as well. Can Helsley repeat this level of production in 2025? 

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks – Limping toward the finish line, there are more questions than answers about the bullpen at the end of the season. A.J. Puk suffered an ugly loss in a “must-win” game and Justin Martinez showed flashes of brilliance, mixed with traffic-induced save situations. Based on in-season usage patterns, Martinez should open 2025 as the closer, but a match-up-based approach could also be deployed. 

Colorado Rockies – The Rockies had a revolving door at the closer position this season. At the beginning of the season, Justin Lawrence and Tyler Kinley were the top two relievers in the hierarchy. Victor Vodnik emerged as the closer in early July until he landed on the injured list in late August. Kinley reemerged, converting all six save chances until he was on the injured list in September. Rookie Seth Halvorsen took over the top of the hierarchy, and a spring battle will decide who gets the gig on Opening Day. Based on underlying indicators, plan on Kinley (if healthy) or Halvorsen, with Jaden Hill, a potential contender, by the second half of 2025. 

Los Angeles Dodgers – Targeting Michael Kopech at the trade deadline, he helped stabilize the backend of the bullpen. He recorded four wins, converted six saves, and notched seven holds with 27 strikeouts versus ten walks across 23 innings. Evan Phillips and Blake Treinen also operated in the late innings, but Treinen will be a free agent at the end of the season. As for Opening Day next season, we lean toward Kopech. Still, those in keeper leagues will track Edgardo Henriquez‘s development closely unless the team makes a trade for a more reliable closer this off-season. 

San Diego Padres – Robert Suarez was dominant in the first half, throwing his four-seam fastball and converting 22 of his first 24 save chances. Fatigue and predictability affected his results in the second half. One should not run from the Padres closer, but a more diverse use of his arsenal will prevent further migration toward the mean. He will be the closer on Opening Day, but his runway was reduced slightly by the second-half struggles ahead of the playoffs. 

San Francisco Giants – It’s too early to give up on Camilo Doval as a closer, and it’s tough to trust him next season after struggling with a rising WHIP and declining K-BB percentage. Things become trickier with the emergence of Ryan Walker. He took over as the closer and converted all ten save chances from August 10-on with 28 strikeouts versus five walks during his last 17 appearances, spanning 19.2 innings. Doval may need a change of scenery, and Walker was the team’s best reliever, making him our projected closer for 2025.

Free Agents for 2025

  • Carlos Estévez
  • Tanner Scott
  • Kirby Yates
  • Aroldis Chapman
  • Kenley Jansen
  • Jeff Hoffman
  • Blake Treinen
  • Clay Holmes
  • Chris Martin
  • Paul Sewald

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast

Month in Review for Relievers: Results of Interest and Trends through the End of May

With two months of the season finished, one must remember it’s just past one-third of the season. Do not overreact. But, this process will focus on underlying metrics, hard statistical data, and comparing results from April to May.

Team Saves

  • May, 2024: 199 saves
  • May, 2023: 208 saves

Blown Saves

  • May, 2024: 115 blown saves
  • May, 2023: 131 blown saves

Save Opportunities

  • May, 2024: 314 save chances
  • May, 2023: 339 save chances

Year-to-Date (through May)

  • 2024: 439 saves, 257 blown saves, 696 save opportunities
  • 2023: 418 saves, 249 blown saves, 667 save opportunities

Leverage Trends by Relievers

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qAal7/1/

One notices that saves remain more concentrated this year, especially for closers with more than 14 saves. Last year, only Emmanuel Clase reached this mark by the end of May, but this year, he’s joined by:

  • Ryan Helsley (STL) – 18 saves
  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE) – 17 saves
  • Robert Suarez (SDP) – 17 saves
  • Clay Holmes (NYY) – 16 saves
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH) – 15 saves

Individual Results and Trends

During May, six relievers recorded at least six saves without suffering a blown one:

  • Jhoan Durán (MIN) – 8 saves
  • Ryan Helsley (STL) – 8 saves
  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA) – 7 saves
  • Robert Suarez (SDP) – 7 saves
  • David Bednar (PIT) – 6 saves
  • Craig Kimbrel (BAL) – 6 saves

Unlike in April, when only one qualified reliever (Mason Miller) recorded a K-BB percentage greater than 20, a swinging strike rate over 15 percent, a strike percentage over 65 percent, and a contact rate allowed below 65 percent, there were eight in May:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9tkhF/1/

These relievers qualified in three of the four categories during May:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qTUDp/1/

Shifting gears, here were the SOLDS (saves plus holds) leaders in May

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UQwMf/1/

Here are the SOLDS leaders for the season through the end of May

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yoU4j/1/

For those in leagues with holds as a separate category, the leaders in May:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/l4Voe/1/

Here are the Holds leaders for the season through the end of May:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7reY9/1/

Two key indicators for success by relievers are K-BB percentage and swinging strike rate. Leaders from each category in May are as follows:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7QfJy/1/

Strikeouts and WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) should also be monitored closely by fantasy managers. Here are the leaders in these categories for May.

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zFWXJ/1/

It’s been two great months providing information at Closer Monkey. More volatility awaits, along with the trade deadline in less than 60 days. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast

Monkey Bytes, May 17: Another blown save for Edwin, A Rays blunder costs Adam a save, and The Renegade notched his ninth

Thursday’s slate was small in size featuring only six games, but not in its provision of high-leverage event content. Philadelphia and the Mets played 11 innings, Tampa Bay tried making a mound visit in the ninth with none left, forcing the removal of its reliever during a save chance, and David Bednar recorded a second straight clean appearance while closing out a one-run win against the Cubs. These games and the remaining high-leverage events of interest from last night will be covered below in our condensed and full recaps.

Closer CliffsNotes

(RP | BOS): Suffering his first loss, Kenley Jansen allowed two hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out two against the Rays. 

(RP | CHC): Taking over in the top of the sixth, Hayden Wesneski tossed 1.1 scoreless frames and recorded three strikeouts. He threw 21 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and induced four whiffs (19 SwStr%). He or Ben Brown may earn a larger leverage share over the next two weeks, track their results closely. 

Updated Hierarchy: Héctor Neris | Mark Leiter Jr. | Ben Brown

(RP | CIN): Facing the Dodgers, Cincinnati ran a bullpen game which yielded a win for Nick Martinez. He threw five shutout innings and allowed one hit while striking out four after taking over in the third inning.

(RP | HOU): Going old school, Shawn Dubin registered his first major-league save during a three-inning outing against Oakland, preserving a lopsided win. He allowed two hits and an earned run while striking out two on 39 pitches (66.7 Strike%) with six whiffs (15.4 SwStr%).

Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu

(RP | NYM): Hanging on for his first save, Jake Diekman navigated around a hit-batter and a walk, scoring the “place” runner, but preserved the one-run win in the bottom of the 11th. 

(RP | PHI): Entering in the top of the 11th, José Alvarado suffered his second loss, giving up two hits, two runs (one earned), and striking out two against the Mets. 

(RP | PIT): Nailing down his ninth save, David Bednar fired a clean bottom of the ninth, striking out one while securing a one-run win over the Cubs in Chicago. 

(RP | TBR): Pressed into action because of a rules violation, Erasmo Ramírez recorded his first save after retiring his only batter faced, preserving a two-run win in Boston. 

Game Recaps – May 16

Boston Red Sox Veteran closer Kenley Jansen took over a tied game in the top of the ninth and suffered his first loss of the season. He issued a one-out walk and allowed consecutive singles, scoring the go-ahead run, then a sacrifice fly, resulting in a two-run deficit. Jansen did record two strikeouts, throwing 18 pitches (13 strikes – 72.2 Strike%) and inducing three whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). He’s allowed multiple runs in two of his last five contests. Chris Martin worked a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit. Justin Slaten fired a clean seventh, striking out the side on 16 pitches (13 strikes – 81.3 Strike%) while generating six whiffs (37.5 SwStr%).

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Justin Slaten

Cincinnati Reds Appearing as the “bulk follower” in a bullpen game, Nick Martinez took over in the third inning producing five shutout frames while giving up one hit and striking out four for his first win. He threw 68 pitches (45 strikes – 66.2 Strike%) and generated 11 whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). Lucas Sims fired a clean eighth while striking out two on 15 pitches (80 Strike%) with two whiffs (13.3 SwStr%).

Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Lucas Sims| Fernando Cruz

New York Mets – Entering with a two-run lead in the bottom of the 11th, Jake Diekman escaped with his first save. He retired his first batter-faced, followed by Brandon Marsh reaching on an error and a walk. After inducing a run-scoring fielder’s choice ground out, he produced a game-ending strikeout of Kyle Schwarber. Jorge López collected his first win, issuing an intentional walk (Bryce Harper) during a scoreless tenth. Edwin Díaz suffered his third blown save of the season, and third in four outings. He issued Marsh a lead-off walk after 10 pitches and recorded a strikeout but threw a wild pitch, advancing the runner who scored on a game-tying RBI single by Bryson Stott. Díaz struck out Schwarber and produced a lineout by J.T. Realmuto, ending the inning. Adam Ottavino notched his seventh hold, allowing a hit in a scoreless eighth. Reed Garrett was tagged with his second blown save, yielding two hits, an earned run, and a walk while striking out two over 1.2 innings.

Many will want Díaz placed on the hot seat, especially since he’s already matched his blown save total from 2022 this season. However, his underlying data does not imply a reduction in skills, he must refine his command and improve his strikeout rates moving forward.

Hierarchy remains: Edwin Díaz | Adam Ottavino | Reed Garrett

Philadelphia Phillies – Suffering his second loss, José Alvarado gave up two hits, including a go-ahead RBI single by J.D. Martinez leading off the 11th, a double, and a run on a wild pitch. He also recorded two strikeouts in his outing, throwing 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) while producing three whiffs (20 SwStr%). José Ruiz logged two clean frames, striking out three. Jeff Hoffman was tagged with his third blown save, allowing a hit, two unearned runs, and a walk while striking out two in the eighth, courtesy of a throwing error by Bryson Stott. Gregory Soto retired the side in the seventh. Orion Kerkering worked a scoreless sixth, yielding a hit and striking out three. Matt Strahm fired 1.2 clean innings, striking out two.

One should note, that Kerkering has been scoreless over his last three allowing one hit while recording five strikeouts (50 K%).

Hierarchy remains: *José Alvarado | *Jeff Hoffman | Orion Kerkering

*= closer-by-committee

Pittsburgh Pirates – Raise the Jolly Roger following a second straight clean appearance by David Bednar, locking down his ninth save. He threw eight pitches (7 strikes – 87.5 Strike%) and produced one while recording one strikeout. He’s converted all four save chances in May and been scoreless in five of his last six games with five strikeouts against one walk. Colin Holderman held on for his fourth hold, giving up an unearned run, a hit-by-pitch, and a walk while striking out one in a scoreless eighth. Aroldis Chapman fired a clean seventh, striking out two, and securing his ninth hold.

Hierarchy remains: David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Colin Holderman

Tampa Bay Rays – With two outs, and two runners on, the Rays pitching coach tried making a mound visit without one remaining, causing the removal of Jason Adam from the save chance. Erasmo Ramírez stranded both inherited runners, inducing a game-ending groundout by Romy Gonzalez for his first save this season, and first since 2020. Adam gets credit for his ninth hold, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out one on 23 pitches (15 strikes – 65.2 Strike%) while producing four whiffs (17.4 SwStr%). Manuel Rodríguez collected his first win, striking out one during a clean bottom of the eighth, ahead of his team’s rally. Garrett Cleavinger turned in a scoreless seventh, walking one and striking out one.

Hierarchy remains: *Pete Fairbanks | *Jason Adam | Garrett Cleavinger

*= closer-by-committee

Closer Monkey’s filthy outing of the day goes to Justin Slaten, recording all three outs via strikeout during his outing against the Rays, courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community, stay safe and be well.

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Under the Hood: What’s going on with David Bednar and Héctor Neris

Life, like underlying data, can be tricky. Although time did not allow itself last week, it’s time for another Under the Hood session featuring two relievers in the National League Central. Acknowledging ERA can be a fluky statistic, lets post some surface numbers for the two relievers:

  • Reliever A: 17 games, 19:5 K:BB, 1.53 WHIP
  • Reliever B: 16 games, 13:14 K:BB, 1.80 WHIP

Which one owns the lower ERA? As one can assume, it’s Reliever B, Héctor Neris. Despite his inflated WHIP, he’s posted a 3.00 ERA through 15 innings this season. Reliever A, David Bednar has a 9.00 ERA even though he allows less contact, throws more strikes, and induces more whiffs. Using season-to-date results, each reliever’s outcomes, and outlook will be explored in today’s post.

David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates

It’s tough not rooting for the “Renegade“. He’s a hometown talent playing in front of friends and family. However, he missed most of the spring with a latissimus dorsi issue and had a rough start to his season. Fantasy managers assumed with more repetitions that Bednar would find past form, which can still happen.

Seeing his current ERA, and his 3.03 SIERA, a metric on Fangraphs that predicts in-season ERA better than other ones such as FIP, one envisions him as a potential buy low from a fantasy perspective. But he must improve his results, especially in contact allowed and with his four-seam fastball placement.

Beginning with his contact trends this season, he’s produced a career-worst 30.4 percent line drive rate, fueling a disparity in his quality of contact:

  • 2.2 pop-up percentage plus 4.3 percent weak contact = 6.5 percent poor contact-induced
  • 8.7 solid contact percentage plus a 13 percent barrel rate = 21.7 good contact allowed

As a comparison, here’s his heatmap from Statcast with his pitches this year:

However, on hits this season, one notices most are on fastballs at the middle or bottom third of the strike zone:

Location may play a part in his early struggles, but when viewing his splits-by-pitch this year versus past results, the fastball results jump off the chart:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/J2Lfr/2/

One would think he would throw more of his secondary pitches, but he’s increased his four-seam use early on this year:

Hope lies in improved results with the curve, which has suffered a steep drop in swinging strike percentage in 2024. Delving into his leverage trends, there are no major differences, which may mean better outcomes lie in the offing:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/rwSLw/3/

It’s tough giving up on a closer like Bednar, especially when he’s produced a 19.4 K-BB percentage with a 65.4 strike percentage and a 72.9 percent contact rate allowed. Monitor his results over the next two weeks closely, especially the curve, and hope this will be a small sample fantasy players forget about as the year progresses.

Héctor Neris, Chicago Cubs

It’s been a running joke in the game recaps, but he’s been the “Teflon” man during high-leverage events. He’s logged 16 appearances this year with one clean outing. He’s issued at least a walk during 10 games, and multiple walks in three.

He’s staved off trouble by increasing his ground ball percentage, currently at a career-best 54.8 percent. Despite the high volume of traffic on the bases in his outings, he’s only induced one groundball double play out of 22 opportunities. Like Bednar, he’s not performed great in terms of quality of contact, but it does not have as large of a disparity:

  • 2.4 pop-up percentage plus a 9.5 percent weak contact rate = 11.9 percent poor contact-induced
  • 7.1 solid percentage plus an 11.9 percent barrel rate = 18.9 percent good contact allowed

Leaning into his split-finger fastball has helped him avoid implosions:

But, when diving into his splits by pitch this year compared with past results, there are some eye-opening numbers:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/juCNv/1/

Taking this step further, his leverage trends in this updated chart:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZmOLj/3/

One cannot refute Neris being a valuable component of Chicago’s leverage ladder, but it’s tough staving off this much pending migration, especially with a negative K-BB percentage. He’s relied on and produced results with the split-finger fastball, but he will be forced to adjust if hitters lay off this pitch moving forward. It will be intriguing to see how he performs through the end of May, and into June. Note his 5.75 SIERA entering his next appearance.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Baseball-Reference.com

Fangrapghs.com

Month in Review for Relievers: Results of Interest and Trends through the End of April

Remembering the sample size this season remains small, with only a month-plus of results in the rearview mirror, it helps to review how relievers performed, which will be the process for today’s post. Using underlying metrics and hard statistical data, we try to remain ahead of the curve in the ever-changing world of high-leverage events.

Team Saves

  • 2024: 248 saves recorded between March and April
  • 2023: 210 saves recorded between March and April

Blown Saves

  • 2024: 132 blown saves between March and April
  • 2023: 118 blown saves between March and April

Save Opportunities

  • 2024: 380 save chances between March and April
  • 2023: 328 save chances between March and April

As one can observe, there’s been more saves recorded, and save opportunities provided, over the first month-plus of this season compared with last year’s results. This coincides with offense on the decline, illustrated by runs scored:

  • 2024: 3,408 runs scored between March and April
  • 2023: 3, 744 runs scored between March and April

Before delving into individual performances, there’s a small difference between the numbers of pitchers recording at least one save with 72 through the end of April this year and 69 with one through this same timeframe last season. Despite the rise in save chances, the distribution has remained mostly stable.

Individual Results and Trends

At the end of April, there were four relievers with at least eight saves without suffering a blown one:

  • Robert Suarez (SDP) – 10 saves
  • Jason Foley (DET) – 9 saves
  • Mason Miller (OAK) – 8 saves
  • Evan Phillips (LAD) – 8 saves

Not only has Miller been terrific as his team’s closer, he’s also the only qualified reliever at the end of April with a K-BB percentage greater than 20, a swinging strike rate above 15 percent, a strike percentage over 65 percent, and a contact rate allowed below 65 percent. He finished with a 47.1 K-BB percentage, a 22.4 swinging strike percentage, a 68.7 strike percentage, and a 58.4 percent contact rate allowed, just dominant.

These relievers qualified for three of the four categories described above:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tRu81/7/

Shifting gears, here were the SOLDS (saves plus holds) at the conclusion of April:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wXS38/8/

These relievers have the most SOLDS without suffering a blown save, knock on wood:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hMCId/1/

For those who play in leagues with holds as a separate category, here are the leaders from March and April in them:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VI04i/1/

Two key indicators for sustained success by relievers are K-BB percentage and swinging strike rate. Leaders from each category are as follows:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Lpx9L/1/

Strikeouts and WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) should also be monitored closely by fantasy managers. Here are the leaders in these categories during the first month-plus this season:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Lpx9L/1/

It’s been a great first-month providing information for the Closer Monkey community. More volatility lies on the horizon, so stay safe and be well until these situations arise.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Under the Hood: Alzolay and Hader outlooks moving forward

This week’s under the hood sets its sights on the early struggles by Adbert Alzolay, removing him from the closer role in Chicago in the near-term, and Josh Hader suffering from some bad luck in his results.

Adbert Alzolay, Chicago Cubs

Not much has gone right for Alzolay, he’s already suffered more blown saves (four) in 2024 through 11 games than he did last year (three) over 58 appearances. He’s given up four home runs in only 31 batted ball events and gave up five all last year across 168 batted ball events. He’s matched last season’s home run total with his slider (three) in only 14 batted balls in play.

He’s not throwing with a drastic reduction in velocity and increased his first-strike percent rate. However, when diving into his results on Statcast, one notices an increase in sweet spot percentage by over five percentage points, a boost in his expected batting average (.278), and a 5.02 expected ERA (xERA).

In terms of quality of contact, he’s struggling:

  • 3.2 solid percentage allowed plus 12.9 percent barrel rate = 16.1 good contact allowed
  • 0 percent weak contact and 0 percent pop-ups = 0 percent poor contact-induced

Taking this a step further, here’s his 10-game rolling chart from beginning of last year through his last outing, using strikeout percentage, walk rate, swinging strike percentage, and contact rate allowed:

One notices some shifts in his outcomes during the second half before he landed on the injured list and at the start of this season. With this in mind, here are his splits in some key leverage categories:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/R2jww/1/

If he retakes the ninth inning for Cubs relies on his slider. Comparing his outcomes by pitch, the lack of whiffs, and increased expected results against his most used pitch accounts for his early struggles:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vUjx0/2/

Focus on his slider over the next two weeks, and his usage patterns. It’s tough being patient with a struggling closer, but if he finds his past production with the pitch, better days may happen. However, it’s a tough needle for a reliever to thread during the season.

Josh Hader, Houston Astros

Expecting a repeat of his 1.28 ERA from 2023 would not be realistic, but seeing Hader’s 8.38 ERA entering game play on Monday, April 22 seems like some sort of cruel joke. While sorting out qualified relievers by ERA minus SIERA, he ranks eighth in bad luck with a 5.95 run difference between the metrics. He owns a 2.43 SIERA, almost in line with his 2.34 expected ERA (xERA) from last year.

In fact, his SIERA and 2024 xERA (3.35) set a nice baseline of expectations for his results going forward. Despite his inflated ERA, he owns a 25.6 K-BB percentage, a 14.9 percent swinging strike rate, and a 64.1 strike percentage through his first 11 appearances.

As upsetting as his ERA may be, his usage patterns under first year manager Joe Espada proves more confusing. Hader’s appeared in four games with a lead, in three tied games, and worked in four games with his team trailing. Using Baseball Reference’s leverage ratings, he’s turned in four high-leverage outings, two medium leverage appearances, and pitched in five low leverage contests. Not ideal.

Viewing his underlying data from Statcast, his barrel rate remains in line with last year but he’s allowed a spike in hard hit percentage (45.5 percent) versus his career 32.9 percent barrel rate allowed. Hope lies in his .223 xBA with the sinker against his current .375 batting average against with the pitch, and a .278 expected slugging (xSLG) versus a .458 slugging percent allowed by the pitch. Things migrate toward the mean, and his results will even out.

It’s tough seeing a closer with such a high price point struggle, but focus on his past production with his pitches, and know things will improve:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SoiKP/1/

Houston gets a break with the schedule over the next two weeks, here’s hoping Hader and his leverage teammates turn the tide with regression working in their favor.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community, until next time, stay safe and be well.

Tiered Rankings for SOLDS, April 5

Once again, noting these rankings remain fluid, here’s an updated tiered look at relievers in SOLDS formats. Those in leagues with holds as a separate category can use this list as well.

Tier One

  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
  • Evan Phillips (LAD)
  • Edwin Díaz (NYM)
  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
  • David Bednar (PIT)
  • Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
  • Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
  • Ryan Helsley (STL)
  • Josh Hader (HOU)
  • Griffin Jax (MIN)

Tier Two

  • Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
  • Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
  • Robert Suarez (SDP)
  • Jason Foley (DET)
  • Carlos Estévez (LAA)
  • Clay Holmes (NYY)
  • Abner Uribe (MIL)
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
  • Alexis Díaz (CIN)
  • Camilo Doval (SFG)
  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)
  • Kevin Ginkel (ARI)

Tier Three

  • José Alvarado (PHI)
  • Aroldis Chapman (PIT)
  • Chris Martin (BOS)
  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • A.J. Minter (ATL)
  • Giovanny Gallegos (STL)
  • Jason Adam (TBR)
  • Joel Payamps (MIL)
  • Jeff Hoffman (PHI)
  • Hunter Harvey (WSH)
  • Hector Neris (CHC)
  • Ryan Pressly (HOU)
  • Ian Hamilton (NYY)
  • Yennier Cano (BAL)
  • Bryan Abreu (HOU)
  • Mason Miller (OAK)

Tier Four

  • Pierce Johnson (ATL)
  • Lucas Sims (CIN)
  • Fernando Cruz (CIN)
  • Scott Barlow (CLE)
  • Daniel Hudson (LAD)
  • Justin Lawrence (COL)
  • Kirby Yates (TEX)
  • David Robertson (TEX)
  • José Leclerc (TEX)
  • Brock Stewart (MIN)
  • Tyler Rogers (SFG)
  • Shelby Miller (DET)
  • JoJo Romero (STL)
  • Andrew Chafin (DET)
  • Ryne Stanek (SEA)
  • Yimi García (TOR)
  • Taylor Rogers (SFG)

Tier Five

  • Michael Kopech (CWS)
  • Gabe Speier (SEA)
  • John Schreiber (KCR)
  • Ryan Borucki (PIT)
  • Will Smith (KCR)
  • Chad Green (TOR)
  • James McArthur (KCR)
  • Matt Moore (LAA)
  • Ryan Thompson (ARI)
  • Julian Merryweather (CHC)
  • Emilio Pagán (CIN)
  • Joe Kelly (LAD)
  • Josh Sborz (TEX)
  • Gregory Soto (PHI)

Tiered Rankings for Saves, April 5

Noting these rankings remain fluid, here’s an updated tiered look at relievers for saves-only formats entering the weekend.

Tier One

  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
  • Edwin Díaz (NYM)
  • Evan Phillips (LAD)
  • David Bednar (PIT)
  • Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
  • Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
  • Ryan Helsley (STL)
  • Josh Hader (HOU)

Tier Two

  • Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
  • Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
  • Robert Suarez (SDP)
  • Carlos Estévez (LAA)
  • Clay Holmes (NYY)
  • Abner Uribe (MIL)
  • Jason Foley (DET)
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
  • Alexis Díaz (CIN)
  • Camilo Doval (SFG)
  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)
  • Kevin Ginkel (ARI)

Tier Three

  • Griffin Jax (MIN)
  • José Alvarado (PHI)
  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • Mason Miller (OAK)
  • José Leclerc (TEX)
  • Michael Kopech (CWS)
  • Justin Lawrence (COL)
  • Aroldis Chapman (PIT)
  • Brock Stewart (MIN)
  • Joel Payamps (MIL)
  • Giovanny Gallegos (STL)
  • Daniel Hudson (LAD)
  • Will Smith (KCR)

Tier Four

  • Hunter Harvey (WSH)
  • Ian Hamilton (NYY)
  • Ryan Pressly (HOU)
  • Chris Martin (BOS)
  • Jason Adam (TBR)
  • Shelby Miller (DET)
  • David Robertson (TEX)
  • Kirby Yates (TEX)
  • Bryan Abreu (HOU)
  • Yennier Cano (BAL)
  • Chad Green (TOR)
  • Yimi García (TOR)
  • John Schreiber (KCR)
  • James McArthur (KCR)
  • Jeff Hoffman (PHI)
  • Scott Barlow (CLE)
  • Dany Jiménez (OAK)

Tier Five

  • A.J. Minter (ATL)
  • Lucas Sims (CIN)
  • Fernando Cruz (CIN)
  • Hector Neris (CHC)
  • José Soriano (LAA)
  • John Brebbia (CWS)
  • Anthony Bender (MIA)
  • Yuki Matsui (SDP)
  • Josh Sborz (TEX)

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community.

American League Central 2024 Preview

Chicago White Sox: Way more questions than answers for the White Sox bullpen coming into 2024. If looking for the most likely reliever to land 10 or more saves, you may consider Michael Kopech. The once highly-touted starter turned emergency reliever is as good a bet as anyone to hit the double-digit mark. Other potential SV leaders include John Brebbia, although the veteran is ailing this spring. Young Jordan Leasure is a deep roster name to monitor too. This situation is best avoided as currently constructed.

Here are the three-year high-leverage results for Chicago:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Steven Wilson | Jordan Leasure

Primary hold candidates: Brebbia, Wilson, Leasure, Tim Hill, Prelander Berroa

Cleveland Guardians: Lock Emmanuel Clase in as a top fantasy option once in 2024. He sits atop the Cleveland depth chart and was the top SV getter in baseball in 2023, with 44. The depth behind Clase, however, will be tested. Veteran Scott Barlow is in the fray, while Sam Hentges‘ finger must remain calm throughout the year. Carlos Carrasco may end up providing high-leverage outings for Cleveland, as well.

Here is how the Guardians high-leverage relievers have fared over the past three seasons:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Emmanuel Clase | Scott Barlow | Nick Sandlin

Primary holds candidates: Barlow, Hentges, Sandlin, Eli Morgan

Detroit Tigers: Command, command, command are the three keys to Alex Lange remaining as the Detroit closer in 2024. Gone are the days when he was the only option in town, as Jason Foley, Beau Briske, and Shelby Miller all pose threats to Lange’s hold on the ninth.

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Alex Lange | Jason Foley | Shelby Miller | Andrew Chafin

Primary holds candidates: Chafin, Foley, Miller, Briske

Kansas City Royals: It’s not sexy, but Will Smith again finds himself in a fantasy-friendly position within the Royals bullpen. Now, it may not last all season, as his fastball is god-awful and James McArthur lurks, but Smith is a near certainty to get the role and a leash pre-trade deadline for KC. There are a few other names of interest including John Schreiber, Nick Anderson, and Chris Stratton.

High leverage results for the past three seasons in Kansas City:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Will Smith | James McArthur(HLR) | John Schreiber | Chris Stratton

Primary holds candidates: Schreiber, Anderson, Stratton, McArthur, John McMillon

Minnesota Twins: A repeat performance in 2024 from Jhoan Durán would make the Twins’ closer a Top 5 relief pitching option. Any progression could have Durán landing as the overall best fantasy reliever this year. The Minnesota bullpen is a collection of powerful arms behind their closer too. Griffin Jax led the team in appearance over the past two seasons, posting a 68:19 K:BB ratio in 2023. While Brock Stewart was unscored upon in 27 of 28 relief appearances.

Below is a look at the Twins high-leverage results over the last three seasons:

Projected 2024 Hierachy: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Brock Stewart

Primary holds candidates: Jax, Stewart, Caleb Thielbar

Thanks for stopping by Closer Monkey.

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Spring Vibes, March 17: White Sox Leverage Updates, Colorado closer choice emerging, Kimbrel improving, and Game Recaps

Chicago White Sox – Making his first spring relief appearance, Michael Kopech retired the side in order, and in the recap by Scott Merkin of MLB.com, the reliever hit 100 m.p.h. on the stadium radar. Although he’s not focused on being the “closer“, he would welcome it but remains focused on doing the “best job he can”. Stay tuned.

In a separate post for the Chicago Sun-Times, Daryl Van Schouwen featured quotes about Jordan Leasure being a potential ninth-inning option by Pedro Grifol as well. Until the lights go on, it appears the manager will keep his high-leverage plans close to the vest. Also in the mix is John Brebbia, though he’s not appeared in a Cactus League game yet.

Projected Hierarchy: *Michael Kopech | *Jordan Leasure | *John Brebbia

Colorado Rockies – Perhaps a pivotal day in the “closer” competition. During Saturday’s contest, Tyler Kinley retired the side in order in the sixth inning. He owns a 0.50 WHIP with seven strikeouts against two walks over six innings. Justin Lawrence went nuclear in one-third of the eighth. He allowed five hits, six runs (five earned), and a walk while striking out one. This spiked his WHIP to 2.05 with 10 strikeouts versus two walks through 6.1 innings this spring. Patrick Saunders, of the Denver Post, penned in his game recap, Kinley “continues to show why he’s likely to begin the season as the closer“.  Once Bud Black echoes this sentiment, the committee designation will be removed. Our bullpen depth chart leaned Kinley from the jump, hopefully he fares well in the role this season, or until Daniel Bard returns.

Hierarchy remains: *Tyler Kinley | *Justin Lawrence | Jake Bird

Baltimore Orioles –  Appearing in the sixth inning, Craig Kimbrel issued a walk and recorded two strikeouts during a scoreless outing. Following his rough start this spring, he’s scoreless in his last three contests with three strikeouts. He’s on schedule for Opening Day, and his manager agrees in this column by Jake Rill for MLB.com. As for his last hurdle, working on consecutive days will be the last test for the veteran reliever. He enters this season eighth in MLB history with 417 saves. 

Hierarchy: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Dillon Tate

Boston Red Sox –  Veteran reliever Chris Martin successfully completed his live batting practice throwing session and will move forward in his preparations for the season. His next step will be another live batting practice or his Grapefruit League debut per the injuries and roster moves page on MLB.com. He’s a key component in the leverage ladder recording four wins, three saves, and 23 holds last year with a 1.03 WHIP and 19.1 K-BB percentage. 

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Josh Winckowski

Seattle Mariners – Multiple updates about the Mariners bullpen were posted on “X”. First, Ryan Divish shared Ryne Stanek will appear in a Cactus League game in the coming days. He also reported Matt Brash will long toss at max effort then progress to a mound in the next few days if there’s no lingering soreness. Last, but not least, Gregory Santos is rehabbing and resting, but not throwing. No timetable for his return until he commences a throwing program. 

Hierarchy for Opening Day remains: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Gabe Speier

Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 16)

Atlanta Braves – A traffic-laden outing by Raisel Iglesias did not result in any runs despite allowing a hit and two walks during his two-thirds of the sixth. He did record one strikeout in this outing but owns a 1.93 WHIP with six strikeouts against four walks through 4.2 innings this spring.

Chicago CubsHector Neris notched his first spring hold, allowing two hits and an earned run while striking out one. Adbert Alzolay fired a clean eighth, striking out two for his first hold. He owns a 0.50 WHIP with six strikeouts against one walk over six innings. Julian Merryweather recorded his first spring save with a clean ninth, striking out the side.

Cincinnati Reds – Suffering his first blown save this spring, Alexis Díaz allowed two hits, including a two-run home run, and recorded two strikeouts. This marked his fourth outing and he owns a 1.50 WHIP with seven strikeouts versus two walks.

Houston Astros – In an eventual loss, Ryan Pressly fired a clean fifth, striking out one. He’s posted a 1.00 WHIP with three strikeouts over four innings. Bryan Abreu gave up two hits, four earned runs, and two walks during two-thirds of the sixth. He’s struggled this spring and owns a 2.73 WHIP with five strikeouts against six walks through 3.2 innings.

Miami Marlins –  In an eventual tie, George Soriano worked a scoreless fifth, giving up a hit. Tanner Scott completed an inning, this is not a test. He allowed a hit and recorded a strikeout during a scoreless sixth. He threw 17 pitches (12 strikes – 70.6 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (17.6 SwStr%). Hopefully, this will be an outing he can build on moving forward:

Milwaukee Brewers –  Collecting his first win, Hoby Milner fired 1.1 clean innings. Trevor Megill took the baton in the seventh, facing two hitters, and retired both for his second hold. Suddenly on fantasy players’ radars, he owns a 1.33 WHIIP with five strikeouts against one walk over six innings.

Oakland A’s – In a split-squad game against Milwaukee,  a rough outing alert by Trevor Gott. He was tagged with his first loss, giving up four hits, five earned runs, and two walks without recording an out in the fifth inning. Lucas Erceg also struggled, allowing two hits, three earned runs, and two walks in the sixth.

Seattle Mariners – For a second straight outing, Andrés Muñoz struggled, giving up two hits and an earned run in two-thirds of the sixth. He’s made five appearances this spring, posting a 1.07 WHIP with five strikeouts and zero walks over 4.2 innings.

Texas Rangers – During a split-squad game against Arizona, Kirby Yates fired a clean sixth, striking out one. Through five appearances this spring, he owns a 0.80 WHIP with eight strikeouts versus one walk. 

Closer Monkey’s filthy sequence of the day winner goes to Luis Gil, featuring his change-up and slider.

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Until next time, stay safe and be well, especially on this celebration of St. Patrick’s Day.

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American League East 2024 Preview

March 13, 2024

Baltimore Orioles – As a team last year, the Orioles finished second in the American League in saves, fueled by the breakout season turned in by Félix Bautista. He will miss the season after undergoing elbow surgery, but all will not be lost for the franchise. Craig Kimbrel signed as a free agent and will take over as the primary save share. He finished third in strikeouts among qualified relievers in the National League in 2023 and converted 23 of 28 save chances for the Phillies. Yennier Cano will operate as the eighth inning option, and will often take on the toughest lineup pockets on opposing teams. He logged 72 appearances last year and tied for the major-league lead in holds (31). Getting Dillon Tate back and using Danny Coulombe versus left-handed pockets will enhance the bridge options for the upcoming season.

With this in mind, here’s the team’s high-leverage results over the last three years:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Dillon Tate

Primary Holds Candidates: Cano, Coulombe, Mike Baumann, Keegan Akin

Boston Red Sox After tipping their hand about potentially trading Kenley Jansen, he remains a Red Sox as of this writing. He will open the season as their “closer” unless a last-minute deal occurs. Even though he missed time down the stretch, he went 29-for-33 in save opportunities last year (87.9 save percentage) and he’s tied for ninth all-time with nine seasons with 30 or more saves. How he performs early on may set his trade market. He’s an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. Chris Martin played Robin to Jansen’s Batman well last year, recording a team-high 23 holds along with three saves, and 46 strikeouts against eight walks over 51.1 innings. His 1.03 WHIP makes him an alluring target in leagues with holds or SOLDS categories. With eyes on the future, the team signed Liam Hendriks. He plans on returning near the Trade Deadline (August 2), but how much and in what situations Boston deploys him in will be determined as the season progresses.

Here’s Boston’s high-leverage results since 2021:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Josh Winckowski

Primary Holds Candidates: Martin, Winckowski, Isaiah Campbell, Brennan Bernardino, Justin Slaten, Greg Weissert

New York Yankees – This bullpen may lean heavily on Clay Holmes early on this year. He turned in a career-high 24 saves last season and finished strong being scoreless in 12 of his last 13 outings. His 66 appearances in 2023 represent the second most in his career and he will utilize his 64.8 ground ball percentage in leverage events. However, getting him to save situations may be a weak link for this bullpen. Tommy Kahnle will open the season on the injured list and oft injured Jonathan Loáisiga projects as the main set-up option early on. One bright spot will be Ian Hamilton. He will take over the vacated multi-inning role filled by Michael King last year, and has shoved so far this spring. In deeper formats, he will retain value by providing vulture wins, ancillary saves, and strikeout upside.

Since 2021, here’s how this leverage ladder has performed in high-leverage events:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Clay Holmes | Jonathan Loáisiga | Ian Hamilton

Primary Holds Candidates: Loáisiga, Caleb Ferguson, Nick Burdi

Tampa Bay Rays – It happened, the Rays stopped spreading the wealth in the bullpen and relied upon Pete Fairbanks as their “closer” when he was not on the injured list. He set career highs in appearances (49), innings (45.1), strikeouts (68), and saves (25). He also ranked seventh among American League relievers with an 86.2 save percentage. His save total represented the most by a Tampa Bay reliever since Sergio Romo recorded 25 in 2018. Setting him up affably, and filling in as the “closer” when necessary, Jason Adam remains a rock in this leverage ladder. Through 117.2 innings with the Rays, he ons a 0.875 WHIP with 144 strikeouts versus 37 walks, and secured 20 saves. Colin Poche led all relievers with 12 wins last season, but it’s a tough feat to repeat. He’s only the sixth reliever in team history with consecutive 65-plus game seasons.

Taking all of this in, here’s the teams high-leverage results since 2021:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche

Primary Holds Candidates: Adam, Poche, Shawn Armstrong, Garrett Cleavinger

Toronto Blue Jays – Anchoring a deep, and pliable leverage ladder, Jordan Romano has recorded 36 saves in back-to-back seasons. He accomplished this total despite missing 18 days with back inflammation during the second half. His durability will determine his ceiling for 2024, along with how he handles left-handed hitters, but from a saves standpoint, he remains a reliable source. Erik Swanson set career-bests in games (69), innings (66.2), and strikeouts (75) in his first season with Toronto. He also finished third in the American League with 29 holds. Tim Mayza, Yimi García, Chad Green, and Trevor Richards will also factor as bridge relievers this year.

Here’s the Blue Jays high-leverage trends since 2021:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Jordan Romano | Erik Swanson | Yimi García

Primary Holds Candidates: Swanson, García, Tim Mayza, Chad Green, Trevor Richards

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Spring Vibes, March 13: Injury Updates, Colorado’s Closer Competition, Game Recaps and more

With Opening Day (stateside) just over two weeks away, injury news may determine a player’s availability when the season begins. Results in games will vary as well with relievers experiencing a “dead arm” phase in their buildups. Here are the notes of interest from a fantasy perspective.

Milwaukee Brewers – Per Sophia Minnaert of Bally Sport Wisconsin, Devin Williams will see a spine specialist on Wednesday, while the fantasy community holds its collective breath about the severity of his back issues. He will undergo further imaging at his appointment.

Chicago White Sox – For a bullpen already stretched thin on talent, updates on Wednesday did not go well for the leverage ladder. Jimmy Lambert has been experiencing lingering shoulder issues and will see Dr. ElAttrache in Los Angeles for a second opinion. Later on, Daryl Van Schouwen reported Prelander Berroa will be sidelined with an arm/shoulder area issue, with an update pending clarification. On MLB.com’s injuries and roster moves page, manager Pedro Grifol said Berroa pitched with reduced velocity in his last outing against Colorado and will see the team doctors. Less than optimal, unless one prefers taking a “Leasure“-ly approach for targeting saves in this bullpen.

Updated hierarchy for the White Sox: John Brebbia | Jordan Leasure | Tim Hill

Seattle Mariners – In the never ending injury saga for the this leverage ladder, Gregory Santos felt a pinch” in his lat, and will be shut down for a few days, which will keep him sidelined on Opening Day. Daniel Kramer and Ryan Divish broke the news on “X”. 

In a separate column by Daniel Kramer of MLB.com about how Seattle’s bullpen will take shape after Santos’ injury, he speculated Andrés Muñoz will work almost exclusively in the save situations. Because of this, Ryne Stanek will open the season as the primary set-up reliever. However, two relievers may be selected from the “Steckenrider” bucket. 

Updated hierarchy for Seattle: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Gabe Speier

These next two teams feature a camp battle for the “closer” role.

Colorado Rockies – As each game passes, the “closer” competition heats up. On Tuesday, Tyler Kinley notched his first hold this spring, firing a clean seventh, striking out one. He threw 11 pitches (54.5 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (18.2 SwStr%). He owns a 0.60 WHIP with seven strikeouts versus two walks over five innings. Justin Lawrence also worked a clean outing in the eighth, recording a strikeout for his second hold on 12 pitches (50 Strike%) with one whiff. He’s made six appearances this spring, posting a 1.17 WHIP with nine strikeouts against one walk through six innings. 

Oakland A’s –  In his latest roster projection for MLB.com, Martín Gallegos wrote Mason Millerlines up as the closer“, with Lucas Erceg, Dany Jiménez, and Trevor Gott all in the mix for high-leverage situations. Until Mark Kotsay confirms Miller’s role, it’s purely speculation. However, the talented pitcher’s outings and eye-popping velocities may result in a reliable reliever in save opportunities. 

Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 12)

Baltimore Orioles – Making his third appearance this spring, Yennier Cano retired the side in order, recording two strikeouts. He owns a 0.33 WHIP with five strikeouts against zero walks over three innings. Cionel Pérez navigated around two hits and a walk for a scoreless sixth.

Los Angeles DodgersEvan Phillips worked a scoreless eighth inning, walking one and striking out one. He’s made five appearances this spring, recording a 0.40 WHIP with six strikeouts versus one walk over five innings.

Oakland A’s –  Although he let his only inherited runner score, Dany Jiménez collected his first spring win, giving up a hit and a walk while retiring two batters in the fifth. After five outings this spring, he owns a 1.07 WHIP with five strikeouts against two walks through 4.2 innings.

San Francisco Giants – Getting in work during the fourth inning, Camilo Doval navigated around two hits for a scoreless outing. This marked his fourth outing this spring, he owns a 1.25 WHIP with five strikeouts against two walks over four innings.

Washington NationalsHunter Harvey fired 1.1 clean frames while striking out two. He’s made five spring outings and owns a 1.13 WHIP with a 9:1 K:BB over 5.1 innings. Kyle Finnegan faced two batters, striking both out, in the top of the ninth. He’s logged five appearances and posed a 0.43 WHIP with nine strikeouts against one walk.

Closer Monkey’s filthy outing of the day goes to prospect, Jackson Jobe. He will be a starting pitcher, but recorded his first spring save, turning in a clean ninth, and striking out two while hitting triple digits on the radar.

Until next time, stay safe and be well.

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Tiered Rankings (March 1, 2024)

With March upon us and draft season on the horizon, it’s time for the first run of tiered rankings. It’s difficult to choose which reliever will be the “closer” for a few teams, and many may prefer avoiding certain situations, like these three:

At present, there are three writers ready at the wheel for Closer Monkey fueled by Reliever Recon. Myself (Greg Jewett), Nate Marcum, and Aaron Pags. Being three individuals, there will be different relievers in each of our tiers, but they will be shared at the same time with quick thoughts or explanations of why our tier differs from the perceived consensus. As with any rankings, they are our own, not gospel. If anyone feels differently about a reliever, then it’s clear how they should handle him during their draft or auction. Enjoy.

Tier One

Greg

  • Edwin Díaz (NYM)
  • Jhoan Durán (MIN)
  • Devin Williams (MIL)
  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE)

Nothing crazy here. Strong “closer” candidates with ratio insulation, and three with strikeout upside. Many remain wary of Emmanuel Clase but he’s entering his Age-26 season coming off a career-worst WHIP courtesy of an inflated batting average on balls in play (BAbip). His team construct helps save chances accumulate. If he cuts his blown saves in half last year, he would have made a run at 50. Jhoan Durán remains the reliever I believe will turn in the breakout performance of the year. He could record 100 strikeouts, last year 473 of his 1,017 pitches were 100 m.p.h. or faster in 2023, most among MLB pitchers. He’s thrown 865 100-plus pitches since 2022, also the most among major-league pitchers.

Nate

  • Edwin Díaz (NYM)
  • Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
  • Jhoan Durán (MIN)

The common names atop most draft boards when it’s time for RP.  A notable exception is Devin Williams, which is not a slight on his potential, but based on the potential for a trade when the Brewers are no longer contenders.  While the fire has supposedly been extinguished, I still have my reservations.  The name I have in my 1st Tier that could seem out of place to some is Raisel Iglesias.  Iglesias’ strikeout percentage was a tick down, but his ground ball rate was supported by a solid Braves infield.  As good a chance as there is in baseball for 30 saves, that is if the Braves don’t win every game by 10.

Aaron

  • Josh Hader (HOU)
  • Devin Williams (MIL)
  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
  • Camilo Doval (SFG)
  • Edwin Díaz (NYM)

The Doval Guy

So, I am the Doval guy! And it has nothing to do with his ability but is 100 percent about his stability. For me, he is one of five relievers with a less than one percent chance of losing their job to anyone on their team’s roster. That makes him a tier-one closer.
But also, Camilo Doval‘s 2023 season showcased him as a vital force for the San Francisco Giants, marked by impressive stats, including a 2.93 ERA over 67.2 innings and 87 strikeouts. Despite a rocky start and a notable streak of four consecutive blown saves, a first for a Giants closer, Doval demonstrated resilience and excellence, especially from May onwards, significantly contributing to the team’s midseason turnaround. His stellar performance, underscored by his All-Star selection, solidified his status as a key player, despite a late-season slump that raised questions about overuse.

Tier Two

Greg:

  • Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
  • Josh Hader (HOU)
  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
  • Camilo Doval (SFG)
  • Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
  • Jordan Romano (TOR)
  • David Bednar (PIT)

Some veterans mixed in with a little bit of upside. Recent news about Matt Brash means Andrés Muñoz could gain the primary save share like Paul Sewald held last year. If he notches 30 or more saves and remains healthy, he’s a top-five reliever in fantasy. There may be some migration toward the mean for David Bednar and Camilo Doval, but they each secured 39 saves last year. For Pete Fairbanks, it’s all about health. More innings yield more fantasy goodness. I’m likely the low man on Josh Hader. He’s seen his K-BB percentage decline in each of the last two years, he’s in a deep bullpen, and not recorded more than 60 innings since 2019.

**With the recent injury news about Bednar, he’s been moved to the end of this tier.**

Nate:

  • Devin Williams (MIL)
  • Josh Hader (HOU)
  • Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
  • David Bednar (PIT)
  • Evan Phillips (LAD)
  • Camilo Doval (SFG)
  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA)

This tier is where I will most likely do most of my RP fishing during drafts.  The concerns I have for Williams’ team security are minimal.  Hader may have his hiccups, but with a track record as long as his, the double-digit walk percentage in three of the last four years is a wart worth looking past.  The fact that he hasn’t had 60-plus innings means the days of 100 strikeouts are gone.  If I could get a full season out of Fairbanks guaranteed, he may appear in the first tier in 2025. The Rays’ neglect for a true closer may be over.  Evan Phillips may be the “outlier” in this tier for me.  Similar to Iglesias and others, his team construct is set to build up his save total “floor”, but may limit his “ceiling” with their offensive output.  Over the past two seasons, Phillips has a combined 1.59 ERA and 0.80 WHIP.  Andrés Muñoz’s value remains intact with the news of Matt Brash’s injury.  Both Camilo Doval and David Bednar are convenient RP1 anchors for those who want to cast their line into the second tier.

Aaron:

  • Jordan Romano (TOR)
  • Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
  • Alexis Díaz (CIN)
  • Jhoan Durán (MIN)
  • David Bednar (PIT)
  • Paul Sewald (ARI)
  • Evan Phillips (LAD)
  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA)

Durán’s Health


I know you can say, “But health…” for anyone, however, Jhoan Durán has a history that shouldn’t be dismissed quickly. He missed the 2020 season due to COVID-19 and experienced arm issues in 2021. Despite a strong start post-recovery, he struggled in June and was shut down for the season without undergoing surgery. In 2022, he showed promise in spring training, secured a spot on the Opening Day roster, and became a key bullpen arm, cautiously managing to avoid overuse. His performance in 2023 was strong, marked by a slight increase in ERA and WHIP but maintained a high strikeout rate, despite not being selected as an All-Star. But, he was unleashed more often than last year. His powerful pitching arm also raises concerns about potential injury risks, as has been noted in many studies of the past.

Tier Three

Greg

  • Alexis Díaz (CIN)
  • Evan Phillips (LAD)
  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • Ryan Helsley (STL)
  • Paul Sewald (ARI)
  • Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
  • Clay Holmes (NYY)
  • Adbert Alzolay (CHC)

If the Reds can keep Alexis Díaz fresh, he may finish the season strong, but it’s still an if. When viewing his end-of-year statistics, do not forget he owned a 2.10 ERA and 36 saves through his first 66 games (until September 15). Tanner Scott provides strikeout upside if the command gains hold. Evan Phillips represents the only qualified reliever to do this over the last two years. Ryan Helsley could be the steal in this tier if he’s healthy all season. Steady and unsexy options also lie in this tier like Craig Kimbrel, Paul Sewald, Clay Holmes, and Adbert Alzolay.

Nate

  • Paul Sewald (ARI)
  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • Ryan Helsley (STL)
  • Alexis Díaz (CIN)
  • Jordan Romano (TOR)
  • Clay Holmes (NYY)

The best “values” could be in my third tier.  Alexis Diaz flashed in his first season as “the guy” in Cincy.  Diaz’s 37 saves still only accounted for 70 percent of the Reds’ total saves.  Seeing how his second half compared to his first, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him with a similar team save percentage. Oliver Marmol turned to Ryan Helsley down the stretch of 2023 and was rewarded with a 0.77 ERA, a .108 batting average against, and a 0.86 WHIP.  There will be many who don’t trust the Cardinals’ to stick with Helsley, but I think they will. 

Aaron

  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • Clay Holmes (NYY)
  • Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
  • Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
  • José Alvarado (PHI)
  • Ryan Helsley (STL)
  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)

Tier Four

Greg:

  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)
  • José Alvarado (PHI)
  • Hunter Harvey (WSH)
  • Carlos Estévez (LAA)
  • Robert Suarez (SDP)
  • Alex Lange (DET)

Welcome into the volatile tier of relievers. This could be where many see a cliff during their drafts. Kenley Jansen could be a fallback option for many, but where he pitches will make a difference. A trade could move him up, or down in this process. José Alvarado has the velocity and skillset, but his pre-and-post-injury splits last year cannot be ignored. Carlos Estévez and Alex Lange may open the year as the preferred save option for their respective teams, but can they stay there?

Nate

  • Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
  • Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)
  • José Alvarado (PHI)

If you don’t have your first reliever by now, let’s hold hands and say a prayer.  While there are many household names (Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen), it will require some guts to trust as your RP anchor.  Both of those two are in situations that are conducive to plenty of opportunities, but what they do with those opportunities is yet to be seen.   Jansen is also “most likely to screw up a good closer situation for another team” in 2024.

Alvarado will get the first crack this season, but injuries were rough last year, and we have Pags along with my favorite “closer in waiting”, Orion Kerkering lurking.  Say that five times fast.

Aaron

  • Robert Suarez (SDP)
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
  • Mason Miller (OAK)
  • Alex Lange (DET)
  • Will Smith (KCR)
  • Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
  • Robert Stephenson (LAA)

Wild for Will

If you told me that I would ever be the high-man on Will Smith in reliever rankings, I would have laughed in your face. His fastball STINKS ON ICE! However, he always seems to wriggle his way into promising fantasy baseball situations. Kansas City is no different. Veteran presence during a rebuild is a must, especially in high leverage spots. Sure, a trade is always likely with the Royals and their relievers, but saves in April, May, June, and July can equate to value. Just jump off the bucking horse before it’s too late.

Tier Five

Greg

  • José Leclerc (TEX)
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
  • Will Smith (KCR)
  • Yuki Matsui (SDP)
  • Mason Miller (OAK)
  • Tyler Kinley (COL)
  • John Brebbia (CWS)

Pick your poison in this tier. It’s sort of wide open and should be used as an end-game option during a build. For the “never pay for saves” crowd, this will be what it looks like at the end of your draft. Feeling lucky? From purely a skills perspective, Miller could be a steal in this tier if the A’s make him their primary save share. But it’s speculative until his manager anoints him.

Nate:

  • José Leclerc (TEX)
  • Alex Lange (DET)
  • Yuki Matsui (SDP)
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH)

I would love to have one of these relievers as my third RP, but grabbing three RPs in a draft and still having balance is nearly impossible.  That being said, each of these as your RP2 could result in a full season of production, but most likely indigestion.  Alex Lange gets mentioned in the same breath as Mark Melancon, which is gross.  I can’t quit José Leclerc, but I acknowledge that he needs to throw strikes to keep his job.  Yuki Matsui could see his draft stock rise during the Spring, but I still think it could be an uphill battle to overtake Suarez.  I have Matsui here and not Suarez because I think Matsui will eventually take the job.  In Washington, it’s choose your stance.  Harvey is the better pitcher.  Finnegan has a “proven” track record of saves.

Aaron:

  • Hunter Harvey (WSH)
  • José Leclerc (TEX)
  • Jason Adam (TBR)
  • Ryan Pressly (HOU)
  • Hector Neris (CHC)
  • David Robertson (TEX)

Thanks for checking out our reliever tiers. If interested, check out Closer Monkey’s updated bullpen depth charts.

Under the Hood: Wild Card Round in Review

With the first round of the playoffs in the rearview mirror, here are some thoughts and observations about how relievers performed.

American League

Detroit Tigers

Capping a comeback in Game 2, Will Vest recorded his first postseason save after securing two in the regular season. He also posted 1.2 clean frames in Game 1 with two strikeouts. Jason Foley allowed three hits and an earned during one-third of the ninth in the first game of the series. Beau Brieske allowed a walk but induced two outs on 17 pitches for his first save of the playoffs. He recorded one during the regular season. 

If there’s anything we’ve learned about the Tigers, different match-ups will be deployed in each game. From a fantasy perspective, monitoring how the relievers are used going forward may determine their roles in 2025. 

Reliever of interest: Will Vest

  • He was scoreless in 11 of his last 12 appearances in the regular season, with 12 strikeouts against one walk (22 K-BB%), a 0.57 WHIP, and a 9.2 swinging strike percentage. 
  • Against Houston, he retired all eight batters faced, five via strikeout (62.5 K%), throwing 31 pitches (24 strikes – 77.4 Strike%) with three whiffs. 

Here’s his Statcast box from Game 1:

Houston Astros

Heavily invested in the backend of the bullpen, things went differently than planned for first-year manager Joe Espada. First, why was Josh Hader pitching with his team down by three in Game 1? With a one-run lead at the top of the eighth, Ryan Pressly took over against Detroit. After striking out Parker Meadows, he allowed consecutive singles by Kerry Carpenter and Matt Vierling, putting runners at the corners. The game-tying run scored on a wild pitch during the next at-bat, ending with Riley Greene striking out. However, this handed Pressly his first postseason blown save, snapping an eight-game scoreless streak in the playoffs. 

Hader took over with two runners on and two outs. He issued Spencer Torkelson a four-pitch walk loading the bases. With an 0-2 count on pinch-hitter Andy Ibáñez, he hung a sinker rather than throwing a slider: 

During the regular season, here were his splits by pitch: 

  • Sinker: 71.5 percent usage, 24.8 K-BB%, 67.7 Strike%, .286 wOBA, 16.1 SwStr%, 70.4 percent contact allowed
  • Slider: 27.4 percent usage,59.2 K-BB%, 65.3 Strike%, .175 wOBA, 32.2 SwStr%, 41.1 percent contact allowed

Hader’s postseason ends with 2.1 innings, allowing three hits, an earned run, and two walks with zero strikeouts. He threw 50 pitches (62 Strike%) and produced five whiffs (10 SwStr%). Bryan Abreu was in line for the win after tossing 1.1 scoreless innings, walking one and striking out two on 18 pitches in Game 2. 

Kansas City Royals

Entering the playoffs, Lucas Erceg was scoreless in 19 of 23 games since his acquisition, converting 11 of 13 save opportunities with the Royals. He recorded an impressive 31 strikeouts versus three walks (28.9 K-BB%) with a 0.84 WHIP and a 15.2 swinging strike percentage. Against the Orioles, he secured the save in both games of a sweep, throwing 32 pitches (21 strikes – 65.6 Strike%) through 2.1 scoreless innings, allowing a walk and striking out three. 

Although his change-up was his least used pitch during the regular season, he threw 11 in Game 1 and four in Game 2, producing four combined whiffs (26.7 SwStr%). This goes against his trends by month but may signal a newfound trust in a pitch that could help him flourish in 2025. Stay tuned. 

National League

Milwaukee Brewers

Preserving a two-run win in Game 2, Devin Williams retired the side on ten pitches (80 Strike%) with two whiffs. In Game 3, things were drastically different. Entering with a two-run lead again, “The Airbender” issued Francisco Lindor a lead-off walk, a high-leverage mortal sin, especially in the playoffs. After striking out Mark Vientos, Williams allowed Brandon Nimmo’s single, followed by Pete Alonso’s go-ahead three-run home run on this pitch: 

On “X,” Jomboy shared this video clip, displaying Williams tipping his pitches, verified by two former MLB players (Trevor Plouffe and Trevor May). There are very slim margins in winning and losing. Any information like this can make or break an outing. 

There are no long-term effects on his health or performance for Williams; he’s a dominant reliever. But, through three postseason appearances, he owns a 3.478 WHIP over 2.1 innings, throwing 75 pitches (60 Strike%) with ten whiffs (13.3 SwStr%). 

New York Mets

Shutting the door on his first career save, David Peterson worked a scoreless bottom of the ninth, giving up a hit and striking out one. Edwin Díaz collected his first win in Game 3, logging 1.2 scoreless innings, issuing two walks, and recording three strikeouts. He threw 39 pitches (21 strikes – 53.8 Strike%) and produced six whiffs (15.4 SwStr%). Of more concern, he allowed three stolen bases in his outing. 

Since August 29, he’s logged 16 appearances, 14 scoreless, with 33 strikeouts versus seven walks (37.1 K-BB%) with a 0.90 WHIP across 17.2 innings, including his game against Milwaukee during the postseason. Using more four-seams and fewer sliders has spurred this level of production: 

His outcomes against Philadelphia will be pivotal, but they will be aggressive on the bases in this series. 

San Diego Padres

During his team’s two-game sweep in the Wild Card round, Robert Suarez turned in two scoreless outings, including a save during a one-run win in Game 2. He threw a combined 22 pitches (14 strikes – 63.6 Strike%) with one whiff. Of more interest, he has not relied on his four-seam fastball. Setting a baseline, here are his pitch usage percentages from the regular season: 

In the postseason, he’s been using his sinker with a much higher frequency: 

  • Sinker: 15 pitches (68.2 usage percentage)
  • Four-seam: 5 pitches (22.7 usage percentage)
  • Change-up: 2 pitches (9.1 usage percentage)

Taking this a step further, here are his usage patterns in these two playoff games by hitter handedness, courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast

Monkey Bytes: September 30

On the last full slate of the regular season, relievers recorded three wins and secured nine saves. Six relievers recorded their first save of 2024, with four being the first of a pitcher’s career: Ryne Nelson (ARI), Kris Bubic (KC), Edgardo Henriquez (LAD), José Ruiz (PHI).

In case you missed it, Closer Monkey’s 2025 Projected Closer by Teams was posted yesterday.

There will be two games today between Atlanta and the New York Mets; here are the tiebreaker scenarios per MLB.com:

Thanks for being a part of this season at Closer Monkey. Enjoy and be well. If we have helped this season, please leave a TIP for next season’s expenses.

Once the World Series ends, the bullpen hierarchies on the site will reset for 2025 and update once free-agent signings occur. There will not be any further email updates until spring training.

Closer CliffsNotes

Ryne Nelson (ARI) logged three scoreless frames, allowing a hit and striking out one for his first career save. He threw 37 pitches (26 strikes – 70.3 Strike%) and induced four whiffs, closing a nine-run win over the Padres. Joe Mantiply let his only inherited runner on a fielder’s choice groundout and struck out one in two-thirds of the sixth. 

Justin Slaten (BOS) secured his second save with a scoreless ninth, working around a lead-off bunt single by Dylan Carlson and retiring the next three hitters. He threw 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) and induced one whiff. Over his last 13 games, he was scoreless in ten while earning a win and recording a save with 13 strikeouts against zero walks.

Ethan Roberts (CHC) gave up three hits, three earned runs, and a walk at the top of the tenth, resulting in his first loss. Nate Pearson stranded two runners in the eighth and logged 1.1 scoreless innings, allowing a hit and striking out one. 

Enyel De Los Santos (CHW) took over with the bases loaded and two outs at the bottom of the eighth. Inducing an inning-ending groundout. He returned for the ninth and worked around a one-out single with a game-ending double play groundout for his second save. He threw 11 pitches (72.7 Strike%) and produced one whiff.

Buck Farmer (CIN) capped a three-run rally at the top of the tenth, recording his first save with a scoreless bottom of the inning despite issuing a walk. Tony Santillan collected his third win, firing a clean ninth and striking out one.

Victor Vodnik (COL) suffered his fourth loss and a sixth blown save, giving up three hits, including a game-tying Chris Taylor solo home run, and two earned runs over one-third of the eighth. Seth Halvorsen stranded one of two inherited runners while retiring all five batters faced, three via strikeout. He threw 21 pitches (71.4 Strike%) and generated five whiffs (23.8 SwStr%). 

Kris Bubic (KC) not only converted his first career save but also secured the fifth seed in the playoffs, finishing a two-run win in Atlanta. He allowed Gio Urshela’s lead-off single, then retired the next three batters for a scoreless appearance. He threw 17 pitches (12 strikes – 70.6 Strike%) and induced one whiff while recording one strikeout.

Edgardo Henriquez (LAD) preserved a one-run win in Colorado with a scoreless ninth for his first career save. He allowed a walk and recorded two strikeouts on 17 pitches (10 strikes – 58.8 Strike%) with three whiffs (17.6 SwStr%). Michael Kopech notched his ninth hold, firing a clean eighth and striking out two against the 2-3-4 lineup pocket. He threw eighth pitches (87.5 Strike%) and generated three whiffs (37.5 SwStr%). Evan Phillips collected his fifth win, retiring the side and striking out two in the seventh, ahead of his team’s rally at the top of the eighth. 

Anthony Bender (MIA) took over at the bottom of the eighth. He stranded a runner and logged 1.1 scoreless innings, allowing a walk while striking out two for his first save. He threw 25 pitches (52 Strike%) and induced one whiff.

Edwin Díaz (NYM) completed a combined shutout with a scoreless ninth in a non-save outing. He issued a walk and recorded three strikeouts on 26 pitches (50 Strike%) with seven whiffs (26.9 SwStr%). Since August 29, he’s been scoreless in 13 of 14 appearances, converting six saves with 28 strikeouts versus three walks over 14.1 innings.

Clay Holmes (NYY) was called upon with a two-run lead at the top of the ninth against his former team, Pittsburgh. He retired the side and recorded a strikeout facing the 2-3-4 lineup pocket on 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) with one whiff for his 30th save. He finished the regular season on a modest five-game scoreless streak. Luke Weaver collected his seventh win, tossing a scoreless eighth, allowing a hit, and striking out two. Over his last seven appearances, he’s recorded three wins and converted four saves with 24 strikeouts against three walks across 11 innings.

José Ruiz (PHI) navigated around two hits and a walk with two strikeouts in a scoreless bottom of the ninth against the Nationals for his first career save. He threw 25 pitches (64 Strike%) and induced two whiffs.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast

Monkey Bytes: September 29

With the marathon regular season almost over, things remain unsettled in the National League Wild Card standings. There are eight possible scenarios covered in this column by Theo DeRosa of MLB.com, but here are the shortened possibilities for the three teams vying for two postseason spots:

For the American League, if Detroit wins, they will be the fifth seed and play at Baltimore. However, if they lose and Kansas City wins, the Royals will play Baltimore, and the Tigers face Houston.

Ten relievers recorded wins and seven secured saves from Saturday’s games. There were two four-inning saves, including a career first for Justin Wrobleski (LAD). Spencer Bivens (SF) also recorded his first career save, preserving a one-run win over the Cardinals. Our condensed game recaps cover all of yesterday’s high-leverage events of interest.

Closer CliffsNotes

A.J. Puk (ARI) took over with one out during a tied game at the top of the ninth against the Padres. He allowed a single by David Peralta, Kyle Hhigashioka’s go-ahead two-run home run, and Brandon Lockridge’s solo home run. Puk was removed after retiring Tyler Wade on a lineout, suffering his ninth loss. He lost a 25-game scoreless streak and allowed two home runs in a relief outing for the first time in his career. Scott McGough finished the ninth, giving up two hits and two earned runs. Justin Martinez retired all four batters, one via strikeout. 

  • Updated Hierarchy: *Justin Martinez | *A.J. Puk | Kevin Ginkel
  • *= closer-by-committee

Raisel Iglesias (ATL) kept the game tied with a clean top of the ninth and collected his sixth win on a walk-off home run at the bottom of the inning. He threw 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and generated four whiffs (26.7 SwStr%) while recording two strikeouts. Over his last 13 outings, he’s been scoreless in 11 with two wins and five saves while posting 16 strikeouts against five walks.

  • Hierarchy remains: Raisel Iglesias | Joe Jiménez | Pierce Johnson

Porter Hodge (CHC) fired a clean top of the ninth and recorded a strikeout for his ninth save. He threw 12 pitches (7 strikes – 58.3 Strike%) and induced one whiff. Since August 4, he’s appeared in 19 games and been scoreless in 18 while converting eight of nine save chances with 26 strikeouts against nine walks. Tyson Miller collected his fifth win, allowing a hit during two-thirds of the eighth. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Porter Hodge | Tyson Miller | Nate Pearson

Gus Varland (CHW) finished a combined shutout, allowing a walk during a scoreless bottom of the ninth. Michael Soroka notched his second hold, firing three clean frames and striking out five. He threw 43 pitches (29 strikes – 67.4 Strike%) and generated eight whiffs (18.6 SwStr%). He finishes September with three scoreless appearances, spanning 7.1 innings while recording 13 strikeouts against two walks. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Justin Anderson | Fraser Ellard | Prelander Berroa

Shawn Dubin (HOU) fired a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded two strikeouts, preserving a one-run win in Cleveland for his second save. He threw 14 pitches (64.2 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (21.4 SwStr%) versus the 7-8-9 lineup pocket. Ryan Pressly faced the heart of the Guardians’ lineup, working around José Ramírez’s lead-off double with a groundout and a fielder’s choice groundout, cutting down the runner at home for his 25th hold.

  • Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu

Sam Long (KC) entered at the bottom of the eighth but suffered his third loss, allowing a walk-off Travis d’Arnaud home run in the ninth. Long finished 1.1 innings, giving up one hit, one earned run, and a walk while striking out three.

  • Hierarchy remains: Lucas Erceg | John Schreiber | Kris Bubic

José Quijada (LAA) was summoned for the save chance with a three-run lead at the top of the ninth. He issued Marcus Semien a lead-off walk, recorded a strikeout, then another walk and a hit batter, loading the bases. After Nathaniel Lowe singled in a run, Quijada was removed, leaving three runners on base. Ryan Miller let all three inherited runners score, giving up a two-RBI single by Jonathan Ornelas, with the third scoring on a throwing error, resulting in his first blown save. Miller recorded two outs and allowed only one hit. Quijada was tagged with his second loss, allowing four runs (three earned) and three walks in one-third of the ninth.

  • Updated Hierarchy: *José Quijada | *Ryan Miller | Brock Burke
  • *= closer-by-committee

Justin Wrobleski (LAD) logged four scoreless frames during a lopsided win in Colorado, recording his first career save. He allowed two hits and two walks while striking out four on 49 pitches (33 strikes – 67.3 Strike%) with nine whiffs (18.4 SwStr%). 

  • Hierarchy remains: *Michael Kopech | *Blake Treinen | *Evan Phillips
  • *= closer-by-committee

Darren McCaughan (MIA) logged four scoreless frames, scattering two hits and walking one while striking out four for his second save. He threw 54 pitches (37 strikes – 68.5 Strike%) and only induced two whiffs. He’s converted the team’s last two saves. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Jesús Tinoco | Declan Cronin | Anthony Bender

Devin Williams (MIL) preserved a combined shutout, issuing a one-out walk during a scoreless ninth in a non-save outing. He threw 14 pitches (71.4 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (21.4 SwStr%) in potentially his last outing of the regular season. He’s amid a 13-game scoreless streak and converted all nine save chances with 22 strikeouts against five walks.

  • Hierarchy remains: Devin Williams | Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps

Scott Alexander (OAK) entered a tied game at the bottom of the tenth. He issued a one-out intentional walk to Dylan Moore and induced a fielder’s choice groundout, which scored the “place” runner, resulting in his third loss. Mason Miller could not protect a two-run lead at the bottom of the ninth. He allowed two hits, including a game-tying Luke Raley two-run home run, and recorded three strikeouts in his third blown save. He threw 17 pitches (13 strikes – 76.5 Strike%) and generated seven whiffs (41.2 SwStr%). In his previous 29 appearances, he converted all 16 save chances with 45 strikeouts versus nine walks across 32.1 innings since June 18. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Mason Miller | Tyler Ferguson | Michel Otañez

Jeff Hoffman (PHI)  took over a tied game at the bottom of the eighth. He allowed four hits, including Joey Gallo’s three-run home run, and recorded two strikeouts, resulting in his third loss.

  • Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Jeff Hoffman | Matt Strahm

Aroldis Chapman (PIT) was summoned with the bases loaded and one out. He protected the lead, striking out Aaron Judge and inducing a game-ending flyout by Austin Wells, resulting in his 14th save. He threw nine pitches (55.6 Strike%) and produced one whiff. He’s converted eight consecutive save opportunities and been scoreless in his last six. Jalen Beeks created the save situation, allowing two hits and a walk while striking out one in one-third of the ninth.

  • Hierarchy remains: Aroldis Chapman | Dennis Santana | David Bednar

Yuki Matsui (SD) capped a five-run rally at the top of the ninth, completing a combined shutout. He navigated around a lead-off single with a lineout and consecutive strikeouts. Wandy Peralta collected his third win, issuing a walk during a scoreless bottom of the eighth.

  • Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Tanner Scott | Jason Adam

Eduard Bazardo (SEA) retired the side and recorded a strikeout at the top of the tenth, collecting his second win on a walk-off at the bottom of the inning. Collin Snider suffered his second blown save, giving up three hits, including Shea Langeliers’ three-run home run, and striking out two at the top of the ninth. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Andrés Muñoz | Collin Snider | Troy Taylor

Spencer Bivens (SF) recorded his first career save, allowing a lead-off single and retiring the next three batters, two via strikeout, sealing a one-run win. Ryan Walker took over at the top of the eighth against the Cardinals’ 2-3-4 lineup pocket, navigating around a hit and a walk for a scoreless outing. He collected his tenth win courtesy of his team’s rally at the bottom of the inning. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Ryan Walker | Tyler Rogers | Camilo Doval

Matthew Liberatore (STL) took over a tied game at the bottom of the eighth. He allowed two hits and an unearned run while striking out two, resulting in his fourth loss.

  • Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | Matthew Liberatore

Kirby Yates (TEX) retired the side and recorded one strikeout against the Angels’ 4-5-6 lineup pocket for his 33rd save. He threw nine pitches (66.7 Strike%) and produced two whiffs (22.2 SwStr%). He’s converted 12 consecutive save opportunities and been scoreless over his last 11 appearances with 11 strikeouts versus five walks with a 0.68 WHIP. Dane Dunning collected his fifth win, tossing a clean eighth and striking out one ahead of his team’s four-run top of the ninth. Marc Church allowed a hit and struck out one in a scoreless seventh while making his major league debut. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | José Leclerc

Kyle Finnegan (WSH) entered with a four-run lead at the top of the ninth. He gave up Nick Castellanos’ lead-off triple and an RBI fielder’s choice while striking out one in a non-save capacity. He threw 13 pitches (10 strikes – 76.9 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (15.4 SwStr%). He’s allowed a run in three straight outings. Jose A. Ferrer was tagged with his first blown save and collected his first win, giving up Trea Turner’s game-tying two-run home run at the top of the eighth. He finished 1.1 innings with one hit, two earned runs, and a strikeout.

  • Hierarchy remains: Kyle Finnegan | Derek Law | Jose A. Ferrer

Vulture Save Options for Sunday, September 29

  • Andrew Kittredge (STL): Helsley will not pitch on Sunday, ending his season at 49 saves. 
  • Bryan Abreu (HOU): He’s the most rested high-leverage reliever and doubt Hader pitches today. 
  • Trevor Megill (MIL): Williams pitched last night and will be rested until their first playoff contest. 
  • Troy Taylor (SEA): Muñoz has not pitched since Tuesday, and the rookie secured his first on Friday. 
  • David Bednar (PIT): Chapman and Santana have appeared in back-to-back games. 
  • Michel Otañez (OAK): If the A’s rest Mller, their other flamethrowing rookie would be in line for the save.

Vulture Save Stashes for Monday, September 30

  • José Butto (NYM)
  • Pierce Johnson (ATL)

No Three Takeaways today, but our projected 2025 closers will be posted later today (Sunday, September 29).

Those seeking full game recaps should surf the team pages; they’ve all been updated with Saturday’s results.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast