Thursday’s eight-game slate provided plenty of intrigue, but the news cycle off the field was even more robust. Four relievers recorded a win yesterday, and there were five saves, including two career-firsts. Because of the smaller slate, here are the Closer CliffsNotes:
Yennier Cano (BAL) was awarded his fourth win after replacing Craig Kimbrel during a blown save in the bottom of the ninth. Cionel Pérez secured his second save in the bottom of the tenth against Miami.
Shelby Miller (DET) notched his second save in a potential trade showcase with a clean ninth inning, preserving a combined shutout of Cleveland.
David Robertson (TEX) tossed two clean frames for his second save during a one-run win over the White Sox.
Brent Honeywell (LAD) secured his first major league save, finishing a two-run win over the Giants.
Phil Maton (NYM) collected his second win after tossing a clean tenth inning against Atlanta and courtesy of his team’s walk-off.
Tyler Ferguson (OAK) nailed down his first major league save with a clean ninth against the Angels, finishing a one-run win on the road.
Before Oakland’s game in Los Angeles, the team announced Mason Miller was placed on the 15-day injured list, and after their game, Miami traded A.J. Puk to Arizona. Today’s takeaways feature these news items and the Dodgers’ ever-evolving bullpen. If you have not done so, please bookmark our Trade Deadline Tracker; it will update each trade as it happens through Tuesday.
Three Takeaways
Miller lands on the IL: The first instinct in these situations usually works out, but for fantasy managers on Thursday night, things did not go as planned. It started with news that Mason Miller was placed on the 15-day injured list with a fractured pinky. His manager provided the full story of how the injury transpired. After our update was sent via email, Mark Kotsay suggested he would run a match-up-based approach during save situations while Miller is sidelined. This played out in Thursday’s save situation and is reflected in our updated hierarchy in the game recap below. Before rushing to add Lucas Erceg or Tyler Ferguson, last night’s save was the team’s first since July 10 and third since June 21.
Miami trades Puk for two prospects: Many of us; myself included, felt A.J. Puk could be the heir apparent to replace Tanner Scott atop the Marlins’ bullpen hierarchy. This will not happen since he’s been traded to Arizona. He arrives with a 13-game scoreless streak, recording four wins and a robust 22 strikeouts against three walks across 15 innings. Our adjusted hierarchy places Puk as next-in-line to Paul Sewald, but if the veteran closer’s struggles continue into August, the newly acquired southpaw could earn a share of saves with a postseason spot on the line.
As the Dodgers bullpen turns: This may be a recurring series in our takeaways segment. Not only did Daniel Hudson not get the save opportunity yesterday, he took over in the sixth inning with a two-run lead. This usage pattern resembles match-ups based on lineup pockets. Hudson took over against Mike Yastrzemski, a left-handed hitter, then faced Michael Conforto as a pinch-hitter as the lineup turned over to the top. Evan Phillips would line up against the first four right-handed hitters but settled for taking over in the sixth versus the 3-4-5 hitters. Alex Vesia was summoned against the Yastrzemski pocket in the eighth but allowed two earned runs. Blake Treinen entered with a runner on second and two outs, giving up a game-tying RBI single by Jorge Soler. This left Brent Honeywell as the last reliever standing in the ninth, and he responded with his first career save. Long story short, this will be a confusing leverage ladder unless roles settle in early August.
Vulture Save Option for Friday, July 26
Yennier Cano (BAL): Kimbrel suffered a blown save and threw 28 pitches against the Marlins and should be unavailable tonight.
Vulture Save Option for Saturday, July 27
A.J. Minter (ATL): If Iglesias pitches against tonight, he will be off on Saturday.
Jake Diekman (NYM): If Díaz pitches this evening, it will be consecutive outings and Saturday off.
Game Recaps from Thursday, July 25
Baltimore Orioles – Securing his second save, Cionel Pérez retired the side and recorded two strikeouts in the bottom of the tenth in Miami. He threw 12 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and generated four whiffs (33.3 SwStr%) while facing the 5-6-7 lineup pocket.
Yennier Cano collected his fourth win. He took over with two runners on and two outs in the bottom of the ninth. He stranded both courtesy of an inning-ending strikeout of Bryan De La Cruz.
Craig Kimbrel suffered his sixth blown save. He allowed a one-out single and issued consecutive walks, loading the bases before a fielding error by Gunnar Henderson scored a run. Kimbrel also gave up a sacrifice fly and an RBI single by Josh Bell before his removal. He threw 28 pitches (16 strikes – 57.1 Strike%) and induced three whiffs. He’s given up multiple runs in two of his last three appearances.
Detroit Tigers – Finishing a bullpen game and perhaps being showcased for a trade, Shelby Miller recorded his second save, issuing a walk and striking out one in a scoreless ninth. He preserved the combined shutout, throwing 18 pitches (50 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. This extended his scoreless streak to eight games, spanning ten innings.
Andrew Chafin notched his eighth hold, tossing 1.1 scoreless frames with a hit batter and two strikeouts while stranding a runner in the seventh.
Jason Foley allowed a hit during two-thirds scoreless in the eighth for his sixth hold.
Alex Faedo logged two scoreless innings, giving up a hit and striking out three, securing his eighth hold.
Easton Lucas worked two clean frames and recorded two strikeouts for his first career win.
Updated Hierarchy: *Jason Foley | *Shelby Miller | *Tyler Holton
*= closer-by-committee
Los Angeles Dodgers – Things were interesting with the bullpen working the last five innings of Clayton Kershaw’s season debut. Brent Honeywell recorded his first career save with a scoreless ninth. He allowed a lead-off single, induced a groundball double play, and produced a game-ending strikeout of Patrick Bailey. Honeywell threw 12 pitches (7 strikes – 58.3 Strike%) and induced one whiff.
Blake Treinen collected his fifth win despite suffering his third blown save. He took over in the eighth with a runner at second and two outs, giving up a game-tying Jorge Soler RBI single before recording a strikeout. His team’s two solo home run rally proved beneficial.
Alex Vesia was credited with his seventh hold, allowing two hits and two earned runs while recording two strikeouts in his two-thirds of the eighth.
Evan Phillips retired the side and recorded a strikeout for his second hold in the seventh, facing two right-handed batters.
Daniel Hudson notched his 14th hold, tossing a scoreless sixth. He issued a walk and struck out two versus the Giants’ 8-9-1 hitters.
Joe Kelly navigated around a hit and a walk while striking out three in a scoreless fifth.
Miami Marlins – Taking over in the top of the tenth, Calvin Faucher suffered his second loss. He allowed a lead-off single by Anthony Santander, then recorded a strikeout, followed by a go-ahead Ryan Mountcastle RBI single with two runners being thrown out on the bases, ending the inning. Faucher finished with two hits allowed and an unearned run.
JT Chargois escaped with a scoreless ninth despite giving up three hits.
Declan Croniin logged three scoreless frames, yielding a hit and striking out two.
Updated Hierarchy: Tanner Scott | Andrew Nardi | Calvin Faucher
Oakland A’s – With their closer landing on the injured list, Mark Kotsay said he would use a match-up-based approach during save opportunities. Rookie Tyler Ferguson locked down his first MLB save with a clean ninth and recorded two strikeouts while preserving a one-run win over the Angels. He threw 13 pitches (9 strikes – 69.2 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (23.1 SwStr%) while facing the 5-6-7 lineup pocket.
Lucas Erceg retired the 2-3-4 batters in order in the eighth, recording one strikeout on 11 pitches for his 12th hold. He was used like an HLR, so be patient for save chances with Miller sidelined.
Austin Adams notched his 19th hold, allowing a hit and striking out one in a scoreless seventh.
Scott Alexander stranded a runner and struck out his only batter in the sixth, securing his sixth hold.
Updated Hierarchy: *Lucas Erceg | *Tyler Ferguson | *Scott Alexander
New York Mets – After retiring the side in the top of the tenth, Phil Maton collected his second win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning. He only needed seven pitches against Atlanta’s ninth and lead-off batters on a sacrifice bunt; the “place” runner retired in a rundown and an inning-ending groundout.
Edwin Díaz tossed a scoreless ninth, issuing a walk and recording two strikeouts. He threw 13 pitches (7 strikes – 53.8 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (15.4 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless in six of seven outings in July and converted five of six save chances.
José Buttó logged three clean frames and struck out four on 40 pitches (62.5 Strike%) with ten whiffs (25 SwStr%). He’s worked 13.2 innings over seven appearances as a reliever, giving up one earned run while posting 17 strikeouts against five walks. He has been a SPARP (starting pitcher as a relief pitcher) stud in formats with pitcher designations.
Hierarchy remains: Edwin Díaz | Dedniel Núñez | Phil Maton
Texas Rangers – Slamming the door on his second save, David Robertson logged two clean frames and recorded two strikeouts, preserving a one-run win over the White Sox. He threw 19 pitches (15 strikes – 78.9 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (15.8 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless in 11 of his last 12 appearances, with 17 strikeouts against walks across 12.1 innings.
José Leclerc notched his seventh hold, stranding two runners and retiring his only batter (Nick Senzel) on an inning-ending groundout.
Jacob Latz was credited with his ninth hold despite allowing two hits and a walk while striking out one in two-thirds of the seventh.
Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | José Leclerc
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As trades happen leading up to this year’s trade deadline, this tracker will keep Closer Monkey readers informed with updated hierarchies and instant analysis. Since it will update with each move, please bookmark it for continued use through July 30.
July 26, 2024
New York Mets – Per the team’s Twitter page, the Mets have acquired Ryne Stanek for a minor league outfielder, Rhylan Thomas:
Updated Hierarchy: Edwin Díaz | Phil Maton | Ryne Stanek
Seattle Mariners – Making a second move in two days, this one addressed a clear need in the leverage ladder. Seattle traded outfielder Jonatan Clase to Toronto for Yimi García:
Updated Hierarchy: Andrés Muñoz | Yimi García | Ryne Stanek
Baltimore Orioles -In a trade that benefits both teams, the Orioles acquired Seranthony Domínguez and Cristian Pache for Austin Hays. While this does not jump off the page from a fantasy perspective, it signals that a bigger deal may be imminent for the Phillies. It’s been reported Philadelphia has been in conversations about Carlos Estévez, Tanner Scott, and Kyle Finnegan. Stay tuned. For now, there are no hierarchy changes in either bullpen.
July 25, 2024
Arizona Diamondbacks – As announced by Craig Mish, the Marlins have tradedA.J. Puk to Arizona for prospect Deyvison De Los Santos. Manager Torey Lovullo has steadfastly supported Paul Sewald, but this move makes his runway in save situations a bit shorter. Puk remains under team control through 2026, which may make him the closer next year, if not sooner. He will arrive in Arizona riding a 13-game scoreless streak with 22 strikeouts versus three walks during his last 15 innings.
Our hierarchy as of tonight:
Updated Hierarchy: Paul Sewald | A.J. Puk | Kevin Ginkel
July 13, 2024
Kansas City Royals – After a shutout loss in Boston, the team announced a trade to shore up its bullpen, adding Hunter Harvey for third base prospect Cayden Wallace and its Competitive Balance A pick in this year’s draft. While many may presume this will provide Harvey with save chances, he and James McArthur have very similar statistics since the second half of last year through this season:
James McArthur last 56.2 IP: 5-3 record, 21 saves in 25 chances, three holds, 50:8 K:BB (18.7 K-BB percentage), 3.02 ERA, 2.96 SIERA, 1.08 WHIP, 12.4 swinging strike percentage, 75.4 percent contact rate allowed
Until the team or the manager provide contrary information, fantasy managers should plan on McArthur remaining the Royals’ closer, but if there’s an update regarding a change, this will change our hierarchy accordingly. “The General” was recalled on September 1 last year and in the games since, he’s recorded the fifth most saves in the American League (21), trailing Emmanuel Clase (36), Clay Holmes (29), Pete Fairbanks (23), and Craig Kimbrel (23).
For now:
Updated Hierarchy: James McArthur | Hunter Harvey | John Schreiber
July 9, 2024
New York Mets – After suffering multiple injuries within its leverage ladder, the Mets made the first trade of the month, acquiring Phil Maton from Tampa for cash considerations. He immediately was slotted into the bullpen hierarchy:
Updated Hierarchy: Edwin Díaz | Dedniel Núñez | Phil Maton
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With days until the trade deadline (July 30), here are the latest playoff projections for the American League courtesy of Baseball-Reference:
Glossary:
BUY+: This reliever has a strong chance (50 percent or better) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
BUY: This reliever has a slight chance (at least 20 percent) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
SELL: This reliever has a slight chance (at least 20 percent) of losing the closer role by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This reliever has a strong chance (50 percent or higher) of losing the closer role by the trade deadline.
TL;DR – National League Relievers
BUY+: Andrew Nardi (MIA); Devin Williams (MIL); Victor Vodnik (COL)
BUY: Daniel Hudson (LAD); Robert Garcia (WSH); Fernando Cruz (CIN); Nick Mears (COL); Ryan Walker (SFG); Porter Hodge (CHC); Huascar Brazobán (MIA); Julian Merryweather (CHC)
In case you missed it, our First Half in Review for Relievers covers leaders for saves, holds, SOLDS, and underlying metrics for the first half and the last 365 days. Our American League version was also updated on Tuesday, July 23.
National League East
Atlanta Braves—Spending the offseason building depth through the leverage ladder has paid off, and there is no clear need for this bullpen before the trade deadline. However, an upgrade will not be passed over, though it’s likely a promotion from within, not via trade.
BUY: None; Sell: None
Miami Marlins – Open for business, the Marlins will be selling relievers. The biggest question here is, how many will be traded? Pending free agent Tanner Scott will bring the biggest return, but will they also move Declan Cronin, Calvin Faucher, and others? How many relievers get moved may depend on how the teams on the fence handle their relievers in what has been a slow-moving market.
*Already traded A.J. Puk to Arizona.
BUY+: Andrew Nardi; BUY: Huascar Brazobán; SELL+: Tanner Scott
New York Mets – After finishing the first half with a flurry, the team has turned its season around. It also may have found two relievers for the stretch run out of necessity in Dedniel Núñez and José Buttó. Getting one more solid reliever, especially an upgrade over Jake Diekman, would help this team’s postseason chances. Fantasy managers will also be curious how Edwin Díaz finishes the season, which will determine his price point in drafts next season.
BUY: None; SELL: None
Philadelphia Phillies – Keeping the starting pitchers rested and the bullpen healthy for the postseason will be at the forefront of this team’s thoughts for the second half. Since Tyler Phillips and Spencer Turnbull could make multiple-inning outings over the last two-plus months, getting one more leverage option for the late innings makes sense. How big depends on Dave Dombrowski. Even if they trade for a veteran with “closer” experience, the team’s “floating closer” strategy may remain in place. Per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Phillies have been linked to Carlos Estévez, Tanner Scott, and Kyle Finnegan in his latest post.
*Traded Seranthony Domínguez to Baltimore for Austin Hays, perhaps opening a bullpen spot for a future move.
Stay tuned.
BUY: None; SELL: José Alvarado
Washington Nationals – It’s tough threading the needle of maximizing return on players under team control through next year while fielding a team that can compete in 2025. This faces the Nationals’ front office. Should the team move Kyle Finnegan, especially if Texas does not become a seller? If he is traded, and Jose A. Ferrer can return to past form, Robert Garcia could be a sneaky play for saves in August.
BUY: Robert Garcia; SELL: Kyle Finnegan
National League Central
Chicago Cubs – Part of the decision process on how the team handles the trade deadline will depend on the bevy of relievers on the mend. Julian Merryweather has been activated but has not appeared as of this writing. He could be back by next weekend. Adbert Alzolay hopes he can return, plus Caleb Kilian could log important relief outings over the last two months. If they sell, Héctor Neris will be a free agent at the end of the season, making him expendable. He does have a contract stipulation worth noting:
Cincinnati Reds – Getting a solid second half out of Alexis Díaz may be the best-case scenario for this fragile leverage ladder. If his struggles continue, especially with traffic on the bases, the team may be forced to move him out of save situations. Monitor his results closely. He was featured in Three Takeaways on July 23. As for the Reds, they remain on the fence ahead of the trade deadline, though Baltimore has been linked to trade interest for Nick Martinez.
BUY: Fernando Cruz; SELL: Alexis Díaz
Milwaukee Brewers – It’s been a terrific run, but those who have Trevor Megill on their roster should be planning on potential replacements ahead of the trade deadline. He may record ancillary saves once Devin Williams returns, but he will slot into the eighth inning, making this good bullpen even better.
BUY+: Devin Williams; SELL+: Trevor Megill
Pittsburgh Pirates – It appears the team may add ahead of the deadline. Still, its focus will be on hitters and a potential starting pitcher, not necessarily the bullpen, which continues to get healthier. A returning Ryan Borucki and Hunter Stratton may be this team’s biggest leverage ladder additions.
BUY: None; SELL: None
St. Louis Cardinals – Closer Ryan Helsley combined to share in 70 percent of his team’s 50 victories in the first half with 32 saves and three wins. His 17 clean saves (three batters faced) leads all MLB relievers, and he became the eighth pitcher with 32 saves before the All-Star break, first since Edwin Díaz (36 in 2018). As great as this sounds, the team needs some depth ahead of the trade deadline. Andrew Kittredge has already logged 47 appearances, his most since 57 games in 2021. JoJo Romero ended the first half tied for the major league lead in holds (26). However, he’s produced a 0.00 ERA on one-day rest this year (13.1 innings) versus a 6.30 ERA on zero days rest (10 innings).
BUY: None; SELL: None
National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks – Mike Hazen has reported the team will be buying ahead of the trade deadline, so it appears Paul Sewald will remain the closer through the end of the season. Making a move, the Diamondbacks have traded for A.J. Puk, and he immediately slots into our adjusted bullpen hierarchy. He will be under team control through the end of 2026 and could earn a save share if Sewald’s struggles persist into August. Stay tuned.
BUY: A.J. Puk; SELL: Paul Sewald
Colorado Rockies—If they can move Jalen Beeks, the team will do so. Focusing on relievers capable of operating in Coors with velocity and an arsenal suited for the ballpark would help moving forward. Victor Vodnik emerged with three saves in July and may become the de facto closer after the trade deadline. Keep tabs on Nick Mears; his arsenal suits Coors well.
BUY+: Victor Vodnik; Buy: Nick Mears; SELL: Jalen Beeks
Los Angeles Dodgers – Although Dave Roberts supports Evan Phillips, his recent outings do not give fantasy managers confidence. Daniel Hudson has recorded a save in his last four appearances, taking over the top spot in our adjusted hierarchy. How the Dodgers handle the trade deadline may provide the second-half blueprint for the leverage roles, but for now, they seem fluid.
BUY: Daniel Hudson; SELL: Evan Phillips
San Diego Padres – Anchoring his bullpen’s hierarchy, Robert Suarez has recorded five saves requiring four or more outs this season. His team has won 37 of 39 games he’s appeared in, and he’s only nine innings for tying his career MLB high in a season. Jeremiah Estrada has already thrown 45.1 innings across Triple-A and the majors this season; his career-high is only 54 innings set in 2022. If the Padres plan on contending for a spot in the postseason, they will need a reliever or two before the deadline lapses.
BUY: None; SELL: None
San Francisco Giants – On the positive side, the team has one of the easiest remaining strengths of schedules while getting starting pitchers back. This could fuel a run. However, Camilo Doval‘s inflated WHIP (1.605) places him on watch at the onset of the second half. If Doval’s struggles continue into August, Ryan Walker may earn some save chances in the second half.
BUY: Ryan Walker; SELL: Camilo Doval
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With days remaining until the trade deadline (July 30), here are the latest playoff projections for the American League courtesy of Baseball-Reference:
Glossary:
BUY+: This reliever has a strong chance (50 percent or better) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
BUY: This reliever has a slight chance (at least 20 percent) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
SELL: This reliever has a slight chance (at least 20 percent) of losing the closer role by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This reliever has a strong chance (50 percent or higher) of losing the closer role by the trade deadline.
TL;DR – American League Relievers
BUY+: Ben Joyce (LAA)
BUY: Jason Adam (TBR): Hunter Harvey (KCR); Tyler Ferguson (OAK)
SELL: Pete Fairbanks (TBR); Clay Holmes (NYY); Chad Green (TOR); James McArthur (KCR); Mason Miller (OAK); Kenley Jansen (BOS)
SELL+: Michael Kopech (CHW); Carlos Estévez (LAA)
In case you missed it, our First Half in Review for Relievers covers leaders for saves, holds, SOLDS, and underlying metrics for the first half and the last 365 days.
American League East
Baltimore Orioles – With eyes on a repeat of a postseason berth, the Orioles will be buyers ahead of the trade deadline. Though its main focus will be on starting pitching, getting a veteran reliever capable of setting up in high-leverage situations will also be on the team’s radar. Reports have speculated that the team will get Tanner Scott back from Miami, and a left-handed reliever makes sense, given the timeline for Danny Coulombe‘s injury. How Craig Kimbrel pitches early in the second half will determine his team’s course of action at closer.
BUY: None; SELL: None
Boston Red Sox – Losing four straight beginning the second half places general manager Craig Breslow into a tough position. He planned on trading closer Kenley Jansen, per reports, early in the season, but the players and manager suggest the team should be adding, not selling, ahead of the deadline. This weekend and next week may play a pivotal part in how he threads the needle in handling the roster for the rest of the season. Liam Hendriks may be available as soon at some point in August, which could bolster the leverage ladder if the team adds before the deadline.
BUY: TBD; SELL: Kenley Jansen
New York Yankees – This bullpen’s deficiencies are not its closer’s fault, but there is a chance Clay Holmes should be the primary set-up reliever, not the closer. Much of this will depend on how the Yankees handle the trade deadline. New York should add one if not two, relievers for the stretch run, but will it shop at the top of the closer food chain? Time will tell.
BUY: None; SELL: Clay Holmes
Tampa Bay Rays – According to Tankathon, the Rays have the second most difficult schedule from July 23-on, which does not help its current 1.4 percent playoff odds by Baseball-Reference. This may prompt the team to buy and sell ahead of the trade deadline, which puts closer Pete Fairbanks on the block. He’s converted 18 of 20 save chances this season with diminished underlying metrics. However, the Rays may keep him based on his below market value contract and move Jason Adams instead. Stay tuned.
BUY: Jason Adam; SELL: Pete Fairbanks
Toronto Blue Jays – Projected as a seller, the Blue Jays will try moving pending free agents Yimi García and Trevor Richards. How they handle Chad Green will determine how save chances are recorded in the last two months of the season, but if he’s traded too, this bullpen may be worth avoiding from a fantasy perspective. Reports suggest Baltimore and the Yankees are interested in Green.
BUY: None; SELL: Chad Green (if traded)
American League Central
Chicago White Sox – It may be ironic if the team traded John Brebbia but did not move Michael Kopech. Both may be moved, but time will tell how Chris Getz handles the deadline. If he trades both veteran relievers, the hierarchy will be very light on experience for the last two months. Unpopular opinion, if Kopech stays: he will finish the year strong despite his team’s limited upside for wins in the second half.
BUY: None; SELL+: Michael Kopech
Cleveland Guardians – Representing one of the few contenders not requiring bullpen help, an extra veteran with playoff experience would prove beneficial based on the team’s second half strength of schedule. Focused on winning the division, do not plan on many changes in the leverage ladder, one of the most stable in the majors.
BUY: None; SELL: None
Detroit Tigers – Although Jason Foley has recorded 15 of his team’s 22 saves, he’s only secured four since the start of June. Through 17 games in July, he has notched two saves, while Andrew Chafin, Tyler Holton, and Shelby Miller have one each. This bullpen has been fluid over the last 14 days. Projected as sellers, Chafin and Miller will be traded, if possible, since they are pending free agents. How the team handles save chances during the second half will be monitored closely.
BUY: None; SELL: Jason Foley
Kansas City Royals – In an early move to strengthen their leverage ladder, they traded for Hunter Harvey in early July. General Manager J.J. Picollo discussed getting him in this video and suggested that he will work in high-leverage innings and save situations will evolve. For now, James McArthur remains the closer, but his runway in the role gets shorter with Harvey in the mix.
BUY: Hunter Harvey; SELL: James McArthur
Minnesota Twins – The biggest thing for fantasy managers in this leverage ladder is how Jhoan Durán finishes the season and his velocities. This team has other needs than the bullpen, so do not anticipate a big move here unless an injury happens in the next ten days. Getting Brock Stewart and Justin Topa back may represent the second-half’s two biggest additions for this bullpen.
BUY: None; SELL: None
American League West
Houston Astros – Although he’s had some issues with home runs, Josh Hader will remain the closer. After the slow start, the team enters the last week before the deadline tied with Seattle for first place. Only a collapse would prompt the team to move Ryan Pressly, who will opt out at the end of the season if he wants to close games next year. Projected as buyers, the team will target one or two veterans for the bullpen, capable of protecting leads in the sixth and seventh innings.
BUY: None; SELL: None
Los Angeles Angels – There is no denying the improvement displayed by Ben Joyce since introducing his “splinker” on June 14, but he needs the team to trade Luis García, not just Carlos Estévez, for a full run as the closer. This should happen, but one cannot ignore Ron Washington’s patience in not moving up Logan O’Hoppe or Zach Neto in the lineup to avoid putting pressure on the young hitters. The good news is that the Angels should be moving any commodity possible, and with the easiest remaining strength of schedule, Joyce hopefully accrues six to eight saves down the stretch.
BUY+: Ben Joyce; SELL+: Carlos Estévez
Oakland A’s – One of the biggest trade deadline questions remains: how will they handle Mason Miller? In the latest post about the topic by Joel Sherman of the New York Post. This decision looms, especially after Miler’s dominant outing in the All-Star game. The team may hold onto him and move Lucas Erceg instead, but monitor how this evolves closely. If the team does move Erceg, it paves the way for Tyler Ferguson to gain a larger leverage role for the rest of the season.
BUY: Tyler Ferguson; SELL:None
Seattle Mariners – This leverage ladder remains a delicate ecosystem. All three relievers have missed time because of injuries, with Andrés Muñoz and Ryne Stanek pitching through lingering back issues and Gregory Santos missing most of the first half with a lat injury. With one of the best rotations in baseball, the team must add one, if not two, relievers for depth in leverage situations.
BUY: None; SELL: None
Texas Rangers – With a week until the trade deadline, they sit only four games back in the division, making their plans more difficult. Preparing to buy and sell, a mix of both will likely happen. If they decide to sell, they can take over the reliever market with Kirby Yates and José Leclerc being pending free agents, while David Robertson (mutual option) could also be moved. This would create a huge chasm in the leverage ladder, but if he’s healthy, Josh Sborz could be the beneficiary of save chances over the last two months with Jonathan Hernández getting a larger leverage role as well.
**Updated on July 25: Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports the team will buy ahead of the deadline, which would remove Yates, Robertson, and Leclerc from trade discussions.
BUY: None; SELL: None
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With two months of the season finished, one must remember it’s just past one-third of the season. Do not overreact. But, this process will focus on underlying metrics, hard statistical data, and comparing results from April to May.
Team Saves
May, 2024: 199 saves
May, 2023: 208 saves
Blown Saves
May, 2024: 115 blown saves
May, 2023: 131 blown saves
Save Opportunities
May, 2024: 314 save chances
May, 2023: 339 save chances
Year-to-Date (through May)
2024: 439 saves, 257 blown saves, 696 save opportunities
2023: 418 saves, 249 blown saves, 667 save opportunities
One notices that saves remain more concentrated this year, especially for closers with more than 14 saves. Last year, only Emmanuel Clase reached this mark by the end of May, but this year, he’s joined by:
Ryan Helsley (STL) – 18 saves
Emmanuel Clase (CLE) – 17 saves
Robert Suarez (SDP) – 17 saves
Clay Holmes (NYY) – 16 saves
Kyle Finnegan (WSH) – 15 saves
Individual Results and Trends
During May, six relievers recorded at least six saves without suffering a blown one:
Jhoan Durán (MIN) – 8 saves
Ryan Helsley (STL) – 8 saves
Andrés Muñoz (SEA) – 7 saves
Robert Suarez (SDP) – 7 saves
David Bednar (PIT) – 6 saves
Craig Kimbrel (BAL) – 6 saves
Unlike in April, when only one qualified reliever (Mason Miller) recorded a K-BB percentage greater than 20, a swinging strike rate over 15 percent, a strike percentage over 65 percent, and a contact rate allowed below 65 percent, there were eight in May:
Strikeouts and WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) should also be monitored closely by fantasy managers. Here are the leaders in these categories for May.
It’s been two great months providing information at Closer Monkey. More volatility awaits, along with the trade deadline in less than 60 days. Stay safe and be well.
Thursday’s slate was small in size featuring only six games, but not in its provision of high-leverage event content. Philadelphia and the Mets played 11 innings, Tampa Bay tried making a mound visit in the ninth with none left, forcing the removal of its reliever during a save chance, and David Bednar recorded a second straight clean appearance while closing out a one-run win against the Cubs. These games and the remaining high-leverage events of interest from last night will be covered below in our condensed and full recaps.
Closer CliffsNotes
(RP | BOS): Suffering his first loss, Kenley Jansen allowed two hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out two against the Rays.
(RP | CHC): Taking over in the top of the sixth, Hayden Wesneski tossed 1.1 scoreless frames and recorded three strikeouts. He threw 21 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and induced four whiffs (19 SwStr%). He or Ben Brown may earn a larger leverage share over the next two weeks, track their results closely.
Updated Hierarchy: Héctor Neris | Mark Leiter Jr. | Ben Brown
(RP | CIN): Facing the Dodgers, Cincinnati ran a bullpen game which yielded a win for Nick Martinez. He threw five shutout innings and allowed one hit while striking out four after taking over in the third inning.
(RP | HOU): Going old school, Shawn Dubin registered his first major-league save during a three-inning outing against Oakland, preserving a lopsided win. He allowed two hits and an earned run while striking out two on 39 pitches (66.7 Strike%) with six whiffs (15.4 SwStr%).
Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu
(RP | NYM): Hanging on for his first save, Jake Diekman navigated around a hit-batter and a walk, scoring the “place” runner, but preserved the one-run win in the bottom of the 11th.
(RP | PHI): Entering in the top of the 11th, José Alvarado suffered his second loss, giving up two hits, two runs (one earned), and striking out two against the Mets.
(RP | PIT): Nailing down his ninth save, David Bednar fired a clean bottom of the ninth, striking out one while securing a one-run win over the Cubs in Chicago.
(RP | TBR): Pressed into action because of a rules violation, Erasmo Ramírez recorded his first save after retiring his only batter faced, preserving a two-run win in Boston.
Game Recaps – May 16
Boston Red Sox – Veteran closer Kenley Jansen took over a tied game in the top of the ninth and suffered his first loss of the season. He issued a one-out walk and allowed consecutive singles, scoring the go-ahead run, then a sacrifice fly, resulting in a two-run deficit. Jansen did record two strikeouts, throwing 18 pitches (13 strikes – 72.2 Strike%) and inducing three whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). He’s allowed multiple runs in two of his last five contests. Chris Martin worked a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit. Justin Slaten fired a clean seventh, striking out the side on 16 pitches (13 strikes – 81.3 Strike%) while generating six whiffs (37.5 SwStr%).
Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Justin Slaten
Cincinnati Reds – Appearing as the “bulk follower” in a bullpen game, Nick Martinez took over in the third inning producing five shutout frames while giving up one hit and striking out four for his first win. He threw 68 pitches (45 strikes – 66.2 Strike%) and generated 11 whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). Lucas Sims fired a clean eighth while striking out two on 15 pitches (80 Strike%) with two whiffs (13.3 SwStr%).
Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Lucas Sims| Fernando Cruz
New York Mets – Entering with a two-run lead in the bottom of the 11th, Jake Diekman escaped with his first save. He retired his first batter-faced, followed by Brandon Marsh reaching on an error and a walk. After inducing a run-scoring fielder’s choice ground out, he produced a game-ending strikeout of Kyle Schwarber. Jorge López collected his first win, issuing an intentional walk (Bryce Harper) during a scoreless tenth. Edwin Díaz suffered his third blown save of the season, and third in four outings. He issued Marsh a lead-off walk after 10 pitches and recorded a strikeout but threw a wild pitch, advancing the runner who scored on a game-tying RBI single by Bryson Stott. Díaz struck out Schwarber and produced a lineout by J.T. Realmuto, ending the inning. Adam Ottavino notched his seventh hold, allowing a hit in a scoreless eighth. Reed Garrett was tagged with his second blown save, yielding two hits, an earned run, and a walk while striking out two over 1.2 innings.
Many will want Díaz placed on the hot seat, especially since he’s already matched his blown save total from 2022 this season. However, his underlying data does not imply a reduction in skills, he must refine his command and improve his strikeout rates moving forward.
Hierarchy remains: Edwin Díaz | Adam Ottavino | Reed Garrett
Philadelphia Phillies – Suffering his second loss, José Alvarado gave up two hits, including a go-ahead RBI single by J.D. Martinez leading off the 11th, a double, and a run on a wild pitch. He also recorded two strikeouts in his outing, throwing 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) while producing three whiffs (20 SwStr%). José Ruiz logged two clean frames, striking out three. Jeff Hoffman was tagged with his third blown save, allowing a hit, two unearned runs, and a walk while striking out two in the eighth, courtesy of a throwing error by Bryson Stott. Gregory Soto retired the side in the seventh. Orion Kerkering worked a scoreless sixth, yielding a hit and striking out three. Matt Strahm fired 1.2 clean innings, striking out two.
One should note, that Kerkering has been scoreless over his last three allowing one hit while recording five strikeouts (50 K%).
Pittsburgh Pirates – Raise the Jolly Roger following a second straight clean appearance by David Bednar, locking down his ninth save. He threw eight pitches (7 strikes – 87.5 Strike%) and produced one while recording one strikeout. He’s converted all four save chances in May and been scoreless in five of his last six games with five strikeouts against one walk. Colin Holderman held on for his fourth hold, giving up an unearned run, a hit-by-pitch, and a walk while striking out one in a scoreless eighth. Aroldis Chapman fired a clean seventh, striking out two, and securing his ninth hold.
Hierarchy remains: David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Colin Holderman
Tampa Bay Rays – With two outs, and two runners on, the Rays pitching coach tried making a mound visit without one remaining, causing the removal of Jason Adam from the save chance. Erasmo Ramírez stranded both inherited runners, inducing a game-ending groundout by Romy Gonzalez for his first save this season, and first since 2020. Adam gets credit for his ninth hold, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out one on 23 pitches (15 strikes – 65.2 Strike%) while producing four whiffs (17.4 SwStr%). Manuel Rodríguez collected his first win, striking out one during a clean bottom of the eighth, ahead of his team’s rally. Garrett Cleavinger turned in a scoreless seventh, walking one and striking out one.
Hierarchy remains: *Pete Fairbanks | *Jason Adam | Garrett Cleavinger
*= closer-by-committee
Closer Monkey’s filthy outing of the day goes to Justin Slaten, recording all three outs via strikeout during his outing against the Rays, courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.
Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community, stay safe and be well.
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Life, like underlying data, can be tricky. Although time did not allow itself last week, it’s time for another Under the Hood session featuring two relievers in the National League Central. Acknowledging ERA can be a fluky statistic, lets post some surface numbers for the two relievers:
Reliever A: 17 games, 19:5 K:BB, 1.53 WHIP
Reliever B: 16 games, 13:14 K:BB, 1.80 WHIP
Which one owns the lower ERA? As one can assume, it’s Reliever B, Héctor Neris. Despite his inflated WHIP, he’s posted a 3.00 ERA through 15 innings this season. Reliever A, David Bednar has a 9.00 ERA even though he allows less contact, throws more strikes, and induces more whiffs. Using season-to-date results, each reliever’s outcomes, and outlook will be explored in today’s post.
David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates
It’s tough not rooting for the “Renegade“. He’s a hometown talent playing in front of friends and family. However, he missed most of the spring with a latissimus dorsi issue and had a rough start to his season. Fantasy managers assumed with more repetitions that Bednar would find past form, which can still happen.
Seeing his current ERA, and his 3.03 SIERA, a metric on Fangraphs that predicts in-season ERA better than other ones such as FIP, one envisions him as a potential buy low from a fantasy perspective. But he must improve his results, especially in contact allowed and with his four-seam fastball placement.
Beginning with his contact trends this season, he’s produced a career-worst 30.4 percent line drive rate, fueling a disparity in his quality of contact:
8.7 solid contact percentage plus a 13 percent barrel rate = 21.7 good contact allowed
As a comparison, here’s his heatmap from Statcast with his pitches this year:
However, on hits this season, one notices most are on fastballs at the middle or bottom third of the strike zone:
Location may play a part in his early struggles, but when viewing his splits-by-pitch this year versus past results, the fastball results jump off the chart:
One would think he would throw more of his secondary pitches, but he’s increased his four-seam use early on this year:
Hope lies in improved results with the curve, which has suffered a steep drop in swinging strike percentage in 2024. Delving into his leverage trends, there are no major differences, which may mean better outcomes lie in the offing:
It’s tough giving up on a closer like Bednar, especially when he’s produced a 19.4 K-BB percentage with a 65.4 strike percentage and a 72.9 percent contact rate allowed. Monitor his results over the next two weeks closely, especially the curve, and hope this will be a small sample fantasy players forget about as the year progresses.
Héctor Neris, Chicago Cubs
It’s been a running joke in the game recaps, but he’s been the “Teflon” man during high-leverage events. He’s logged 16 appearances this year with one clean outing. He’s issued at least a walk during 10 games, and multiple walks in three.
He’s staved off trouble by increasing his ground ball percentage, currently at a career-best 54.8 percent. Despite the high volume of traffic on the bases in his outings, he’s only induced one groundball double play out of 22 opportunities. Like Bednar, he’s not performed great in terms of quality of contact, but it does not have as large of a disparity:
2.4 pop-up percentage plus a 9.5 percent weak contact rate = 11.9 percent poor contact-induced
7.1 solid percentage plus an 11.9 percent barrel rate = 18.9 percent good contact allowed
Leaning into his split-finger fastball has helped him avoid implosions:
But, when diving into his splits by pitch this year compared with past results, there are some eye-opening numbers:
One cannot refute Neris being a valuable component of Chicago’s leverage ladder, but it’s tough staving off this much pending migration, especially with a negative K-BB percentage. He’s relied on and produced results with the split-finger fastball, but he will be forced to adjust if hitters lay off this pitch moving forward. It will be intriguing to see how he performs through the end of May, and into June. Note his 5.75 SIERA entering his next appearance.
Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.
Remembering the sample size this season remains small, with only a month-plus of results in the rearview mirror, it helps to review how relievers performed, which will be the process for today’s post. Using underlying metrics and hard statistical data, we try to remain ahead of the curve in the ever-changing world of high-leverage events.
Team Saves
2024: 248 saves recorded between March and April
2023: 210 saves recorded between March and April
Blown Saves
2024: 132 blown saves between March and April
2023: 118 blown saves between March and April
Save Opportunities
2024: 380 save chances between March and April
2023: 328 save chances between March and April
As one can observe, there’s been more saves recorded, and save opportunities provided, over the first month-plus of this season compared with last year’s results. This coincides with offense on the decline, illustrated by runs scored:
2024: 3,408 runs scored between March and April
2023: 3, 744 runs scored between March and April
Before delving into individual performances, there’s a small difference between the numbers of pitchers recording at least one save with 72 through the end of April this year and 69 with one through this same timeframe last season. Despite the rise in save chances, the distribution has remained mostly stable.
Individual Results and Trends
At the end of April, there were four relievers with at least eight saves without suffering a blown one:
Robert Suarez (SDP) – 10 saves
Jason Foley (DET) – 9 saves
Mason Miller (OAK) – 8 saves
Evan Phillips (LAD) – 8 saves
Not only has Miller been terrific as his team’s closer, he’s also the only qualified reliever at the end of April with a K-BB percentage greater than 20, a swinging strike rate above 15 percent, a strike percentage over 65 percent, and a contact rate allowed below 65 percent. He finished with a 47.1 K-BB percentage, a 22.4 swinging strike percentage, a 68.7 strike percentage, and a 58.4 percent contact rate allowed, just dominant.
These relievers qualified for three of the four categories described above:
Strikeouts and WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) should also be monitored closely by fantasy managers. Here are the leaders in these categories during the first month-plus this season:
It’s been a great first-month providing information for the Closer Monkey community. More volatility lies on the horizon, so stay safe and be well until these situations arise.
This week’s under the hood sets its sights on the early struggles by Adbert Alzolay, removing him from the closer role in Chicago in the near-term, and Josh Hader suffering from some bad luck in his results.
Adbert Alzolay, Chicago Cubs
Not much has gone right for Alzolay, he’s already suffered more blown saves (four) in 2024 through 11 games than he did last year (three) over 58 appearances. He’s given up four home runs in only 31 batted ball events and gave up five all last year across 168 batted ball events. He’s matched last season’s home run total with his slider (three) in only 14 batted balls in play.
He’s not throwing with a drastic reduction in velocity and increased his first-strike percent rate. However, when diving into his results on Statcast, one notices an increase in sweet spot percentage by over five percentage points, a boost in his expected batting average (.278), and a 5.02 expected ERA (xERA).
In terms of quality of contact, he’s struggling:
3.2 solid percentage allowed plus 12.9 percent barrel rate = 16.1 good contact allowed
Taking this a step further, here’s his 10-game rolling chart from beginning of last year through his last outing, using strikeout percentage, walk rate, swinging strike percentage, and contact rate allowed:
One notices some shifts in his outcomes during the second half before he landed on the injured list and at the start of this season. With this in mind, here are his splits in some key leverage categories:
If he retakes the ninth inning for Cubs relies on his slider. Comparing his outcomes by pitch, the lack of whiffs, and increased expected results against his most used pitch accounts for his early struggles:
Focus on his slider over the next two weeks, and his usage patterns. It’s tough being patient with a struggling closer, but if he finds his past production with the pitch, better days may happen. However, it’s a tough needle for a reliever to thread during the season.
Josh Hader, Houston Astros
Expecting a repeat of his 1.28 ERA from 2023 would not be realistic, but seeing Hader’s 8.38 ERA entering game play on Monday, April 22 seems like some sort of cruel joke. While sorting out qualified relievers by ERA minus SIERA, he ranks eighth in bad luck with a 5.95 run difference between the metrics. He owns a 2.43 SIERA, almost in line with his 2.34 expected ERA (xERA) from last year.
In fact, his SIERA and 2024 xERA (3.35) set a nice baseline of expectations for his results going forward. Despite his inflated ERA, he owns a 25.6 K-BB percentage, a 14.9 percent swinging strike rate, and a 64.1 strike percentage through his first 11 appearances.
As upsetting as his ERA may be, his usage patterns under first year manager Joe Espada proves more confusing. Hader’s appeared in four games with a lead, in three tied games, and worked in four games with his team trailing. Using Baseball Reference’s leverage ratings, he’s turned in four high-leverage outings, two medium leverage appearances, and pitched in five low leverage contests. Not ideal.
Viewing his underlying data from Statcast, his barrel rate remains in line with last year but he’s allowed a spike in hard hit percentage (45.5 percent) versus his career 32.9 percent barrel rate allowed. Hope lies in his .223 xBA with the sinker against his current .375 batting average against with the pitch, and a .278 expected slugging (xSLG) versus a .458 slugging percent allowed by the pitch. Things migrate toward the mean, and his results will even out.
It’s tough seeing a closer with such a high price point struggle, but focus on his past production with his pitches, and know things will improve:
Houston gets a break with the schedule over the next two weeks, here’s hoping Hader and his leverage teammates turn the tide with regression working in their favor.
Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community, until next time, stay safe and be well.
Once again, noting these rankings remain fluid, here’s an updated tiered look at relievers in SOLDS formats. Those in leagues with holds as a separate category can use this list as well.
Chicago White Sox: Way more questions than answers for the White Sox bullpen coming into 2024. If looking for the most likely reliever to land 10 or more saves, you may consider Michael Kopech. The once highly-touted starter turned emergency reliever is as good a bet as anyone to hit the double-digit mark. Other potential SV leaders include John Brebbia, although the veteran is ailing this spring. Young Jordan Leasure is a deep roster name to monitor too. This situation is best avoided as currently constructed.
Here are the three-year high-leverage results for Chicago:
Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Steven Wilson | Jordan Leasure
Primary hold candidates: Brebbia, Wilson, Leasure, Tim Hill, Prelander Berroa
Cleveland Guardians: Lock Emmanuel Clase in as a top fantasy option once in 2024. He sits atop the Cleveland depth chart and was the top SV getter in baseball in 2023, with 44. The depth behind Clase, however, will be tested. Veteran Scott Barlow is in the fray, while Sam Hentges‘ finger must remain calm throughout the year. Carlos Carrasco may end up providing high-leverage outings for Cleveland, as well.
Here is how the Guardians high-leverage relievers have fared over the past three seasons:
Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Emmanuel Clase | Scott Barlow | Nick Sandlin
Primary holds candidates: Barlow, Hentges, Sandlin, Eli Morgan
Detroit Tigers: Command, command, command are the three keys to Alex Lange remaining as the Detroit closer in 2024. Gone are the days when he was the only option in town, as Jason Foley, Beau Briske, and Shelby Miller all pose threats to Lange’s hold on the ninth.
Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Alex Lange | Jason Foley | Shelby Miller | Andrew Chafin
Kansas City Royals: It’s not sexy, but Will Smith again finds himself in a fantasy-friendly position within the Royals bullpen. Now, it may not last all season, as his fastball is god-awful and James McArthur lurks, but Smith is a near certainty to get the role and a leash pre-trade deadline for KC. There are a few other names of interest including John Schreiber, Nick Anderson, and Chris Stratton.
High leverage results for the past three seasons in Kansas City:
Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Will Smith | James McArthur(HLR) | John Schreiber | Chris Stratton
Primary holds candidates: Schreiber, Anderson, Stratton, McArthur, John McMillon
Minnesota Twins: A repeat performance in 2024 from Jhoan Durán would make the Twins’ closer a Top 5 relief pitching option. Any progression could have Durán landing as the overall best fantasy reliever this year. The Minnesota bullpen is a collection of powerful arms behind their closer too. Griffin Jax led the team in appearance over the past two seasons, posting a 68:19 K:BB ratio in 2023. While Brock Stewart was unscored upon in 27 of 28 relief appearances.
Below is a look at the Twins high-leverage results over the last three seasons:
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Chicago White Sox – Making his first spring relief appearance, Michael Kopech retired the side in order, and in the recap by Scott Merkin of MLB.com, the reliever hit 100 m.p.h. on the stadium radar. Although he’s not focused on being the “closer“, he would welcome it but remains focused on doing the “best job he can”. Stay tuned.
In a separate post for the Chicago Sun-Times, Daryl Van Schouwen featured quotes about Jordan Leasure being a potential ninth-inning option by Pedro Grifol as well. Until the lights go on, it appears the manager will keep his high-leverage plans close to the vest. Also in the mix is John Brebbia, though he’s not appeared in a Cactus League game yet.
Colorado Rockies – Perhaps a pivotal day in the “closer” competition. During Saturday’s contest, Tyler Kinley retired the side in order in the sixth inning. He owns a 0.50 WHIP with seven strikeouts against two walks over six innings. Justin Lawrence went nuclear in one-third of the eighth. He allowed five hits, six runs (five earned), and a walk while striking out one. This spiked his WHIP to 2.05 with 10 strikeouts versus two walks through 6.1 innings this spring. Patrick Saunders, of the Denver Post, penned in his game recap, Kinley “continues to show why he’s likely to begin the season as the closer“. Once Bud Black echoes this sentiment, the committee designation will be removed. Our bullpen depth chart leaned Kinley from the jump, hopefully he fares well in the role this season, or until Daniel Bard returns.
Hierarchy remains: *Tyler Kinley | *Justin Lawrence | Jake Bird
Baltimore Orioles – Appearing in the sixth inning, Craig Kimbrel issued a walk and recorded two strikeouts during a scoreless outing. Following his rough start this spring, he’s scoreless in his last three contests with three strikeouts. He’s on schedule for Opening Day, and his manager agrees in this column by Jake Rill for MLB.com. As for his last hurdle, working on consecutive days will be the last test for the veteran reliever. He enters this season eighth in MLB history with 417 saves.
Boston Red Sox – Veteran reliever Chris Martin successfully completed his live batting practice throwing session and will move forward in his preparations for the season. His next step will be another live batting practice or his Grapefruit League debut per the injuries and roster moves page on MLB.com. He’s a key component in the leverage ladder recording four wins, three saves, and 23 holds last year with a 1.03 WHIP and 19.1 K-BB percentage.
Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Josh Winckowski
Seattle Mariners – Multiple updates about the Mariners bullpen were posted on “X”. First, Ryan Divish shared Ryne Stanek will appear in a Cactus League game in the coming days. He also reported Matt Brash will long toss at max effort then progress to a mound in the next few days if there’s no lingering soreness. Last, but not least, Gregory Santos is rehabbing and resting, but not throwing. No timetable for his return until he commences a throwing program.
Hierarchy for Opening Day remains: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Gabe Speier
Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 16)
Atlanta Braves – A traffic-laden outing by Raisel Iglesias did not result in any runs despite allowing a hit and two walks during his two-thirds of the sixth. He did record one strikeout in this outing but owns a 1.93 WHIP with six strikeouts against four walks through 4.2 innings this spring.
Chicago Cubs – Hector Neris notched his first spring hold, allowing two hits and an earned run while striking out one. Adbert Alzolay fired a clean eighth, striking out two for his first hold. He owns a 0.50 WHIP with six strikeouts against one walk over six innings. Julian Merryweather recorded his first spring save with a clean ninth, striking out the side.
Cincinnati Reds – Suffering his first blown save this spring, Alexis Díaz allowed two hits, including a two-run home run, and recorded two strikeouts. This marked his fourth outing and he owns a 1.50 WHIP with seven strikeouts versus two walks.
Houston Astros – In an eventual loss, Ryan Pressly fired a clean fifth, striking out one. He’s posted a 1.00 WHIP with three strikeouts over four innings. Bryan Abreu gave up two hits, four earned runs, and two walks during two-thirds of the sixth. He’s struggled this spring and owns a 2.73 WHIP with five strikeouts against six walks through 3.2 innings.
Miami Marlins – In an eventual tie, George Soriano worked a scoreless fifth, giving up a hit. Tanner Scott completed an inning, this is not a test. He allowed a hit and recorded a strikeout during a scoreless sixth. He threw 17 pitches (12 strikes – 70.6 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (17.6 SwStr%). Hopefully, this will be an outing he can build on moving forward:
Milwaukee Brewers – Collecting his first win, Hoby Milner fired 1.1 clean innings. Trevor Megill took the baton in the seventh, facing two hitters, and retired both for his second hold. Suddenly on fantasy players’ radars, he owns a 1.33 WHIIP with five strikeouts against one walk over six innings.
Oakland A’s – In a split-squad game against Milwaukee, a rough outing alert by Trevor Gott. He was tagged with his first loss, giving up four hits, five earned runs, and two walks without recording an out in the fifth inning. Lucas Erceg also struggled, allowing two hits, three earned runs, and two walks in the sixth.
Seattle Mariners – For a second straight outing, Andrés Muñoz struggled, giving up two hits and an earned run in two-thirds of the sixth. He’s made five appearances this spring, posting a 1.07 WHIP with five strikeouts and zero walks over 4.2 innings.
Texas Rangers – During a split-squad game against Arizona, Kirby Yates fired a clean sixth, striking out one. Through five appearances this spring, he owns a 0.80 WHIP with eight strikeouts versus one walk.
Closer Monkey’s filthy sequence of the day winner goes to Luis Gil, featuring his change-up and slider.
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Baltimore Orioles – As a team last year, the Orioles finished second in the American League in saves, fueled by the breakout season turned in by Félix Bautista. He will miss the season after undergoing elbow surgery, but all will not be lost for the franchise. Craig Kimbrel signed as a free agent and will take over as the primary save share. He finished third in strikeouts among qualified relievers in the National League in 2023 and converted 23 of 28 save chances for the Phillies. Yennier Cano will operate as the eighth inning option, and will often take on the toughest lineup pockets on opposing teams. He logged 72 appearances last year and tied for the major-league lead in holds (31). Getting Dillon Tate back and using Danny Coulombe versus left-handed pockets will enhance the bridge options for the upcoming season.
With this in mind, here’s the team’s high-leverage results over the last three years:
Primary Holds Candidates: Cano, Coulombe, Mike Baumann, Keegan Akin
Boston Red Sox – After tipping their hand about potentially trading Kenley Jansen, he remains a Red Sox as of this writing. He will open the season as their “closer” unless a last-minute deal occurs. Even though he missed time down the stretch, he went 29-for-33 in save opportunities last year (87.9 save percentage) and he’s tied for ninth all-time with nine seasons with 30 or more saves. How he performs early on may set his trade market. He’s an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. Chris Martin played Robin to Jansen’s Batman well last year, recording a team-high 23 holds along with three saves, and 46 strikeouts against eight walks over 51.1 innings. His 1.03 WHIP makes him an alluring target in leagues with holds or SOLDS categories. With eyes on the future, the team signed Liam Hendriks. He plans on returning near the Trade Deadline (August 2), but how much and in what situations Boston deploys him in will be determined as the season progresses.
Here’s Boston’s high-leverage results since 2021:
Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Josh Winckowski
New York Yankees – This bullpen may lean heavily on Clay Holmes early on this year. He turned in a career-high 24 saves last season and finished strong being scoreless in 12 of his last 13 outings. His 66 appearances in 2023 represent the second most in his career and he will utilize his 64.8 ground ball percentage in leverage events. However, getting him to save situations may be a weak link for this bullpen. Tommy Kahnle will open the season on the injured list and oft injured Jonathan Loáisiga projects as the main set-up option early on. One bright spot will be Ian Hamilton. He will take over the vacated multi-inning role filled by Michael King last year, and has shoved so far this spring. In deeper formats, he will retain value by providing vulture wins, ancillary saves, and strikeout upside.
Since 2021, here’s how this leverage ladder has performed in high-leverage events:
Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Clay Holmes | Jonathan Loáisiga | Ian Hamilton
Primary Holds Candidates: Loáisiga, Caleb Ferguson, Nick Burdi
Tampa Bay Rays – It happened, the Rays stopped spreading the wealth in the bullpen and relied upon Pete Fairbanks as their “closer” when he was not on the injured list. He set career highs in appearances (49), innings (45.1), strikeouts (68), and saves (25). He also ranked seventh among American League relievers with an 86.2 save percentage. His save total represented the most by a Tampa Bay reliever since Sergio Romo recorded 25 in 2018. Setting him up affably, and filling in as the “closer” when necessary, Jason Adam remains a rock in this leverage ladder. Through 117.2 innings with the Rays, he ons a 0.875 WHIP with 144 strikeouts versus 37 walks, and secured 20 saves. Colin Poche led all relievers with 12 wins last season, but it’s a tough feat to repeat. He’s only the sixth reliever in team history with consecutive 65-plus game seasons.
Taking all of this in, here’s the teams high-leverage results since 2021:
Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche
Toronto Blue Jays – Anchoring a deep, and pliable leverage ladder, Jordan Romano has recorded 36 saves in back-to-back seasons. He accomplished this total despite missing 18 days with back inflammation during the second half. His durability will determine his ceiling for 2024, along with how he handles left-handed hitters, but from a saves standpoint, he remains a reliable source. Erik Swanson set career-bests in games (69), innings (66.2), and strikeouts (75) in his first season with Toronto. He also finished third in the American League with 29 holds. Tim Mayza, Yimi García, Chad Green, and Trevor Richards will also factor as bridge relievers this year.
Here’s the Blue Jays high-leverage trends since 2021:
Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Jordan Romano | Erik Swanson | Yimi García
Primary Holds Candidates: Swanson, García, Tim Mayza, Chad Green, Trevor Richards
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With Opening Day (stateside) just over two weeks away, injury news may determine a player’s availability when the season begins. Results in games will vary as well with relievers experiencing a “dead arm” phase in their buildups. Here are the notes of interest from a fantasy perspective.
Milwaukee Brewers – Per Sophia Minnaert of Bally Sport Wisconsin, Devin Williams will see a spine specialist on Wednesday, while the fantasy community holds its collective breath about the severity of his back issues. He will undergo further imaging at his appointment.
Chicago White Sox – For a bullpen already stretched thin on talent, updates on Wednesday did not go well for the leverage ladder. Jimmy Lambert has been experiencing lingering shoulder issues and will see Dr. ElAttrache in Los Angeles for a second opinion. Later on, Daryl Van Schouwen reported Prelander Berroa will be sidelined with an arm/shoulder area issue, with an update pending clarification. On MLB.com’s injuries and roster moves page, manager Pedro Grifol said Berroa pitched with reduced velocity in his last outing against Colorado and will see the team doctors. Less than optimal, unless one prefers taking a “Leasure“-ly approach for targeting saves in this bullpen.
Updated hierarchy for the White Sox: John Brebbia | Jordan Leasure | Tim Hill
Seattle Mariners – In the never ending injury saga for the this leverage ladder, Gregory Santos felt a “pinch” in his lat, and will be shut down for a few days, which will keep him sidelined on Opening Day. Daniel Kramer and Ryan Divish broke the news on “X”.
In a separate column by Daniel Kramer of MLB.com about how Seattle’s bullpen will take shape after Santos’ injury, he speculated Andrés Muñoz will work almost exclusively in the save situations. Because of this, Ryne Stanek will open the season as the primary set-up reliever. However, two relievers may be selected from the “Steckenrider” bucket.
Updated hierarchy for Seattle: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Gabe Speier
These next two teams feature a camp battle for the “closer” role.
Colorado Rockies – As each game passes, the “closer” competition heats up. On Tuesday, Tyler Kinley notched his first hold this spring, firing a clean seventh, striking out one. He threw 11 pitches (54.5 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (18.2 SwStr%). He owns a 0.60 WHIP with seven strikeouts versus two walks over five innings. Justin Lawrence also worked a clean outing in the eighth, recording a strikeout for his second hold on 12 pitches (50 Strike%) with one whiff. He’s made six appearances this spring, posting a 1.17 WHIP with nine strikeouts against one walk through six innings.
Oakland A’s – In his latest roster projection for MLB.com, Martín Gallegos wrote Mason Miller “lines up as the closer“, with Lucas Erceg, Dany Jiménez, and Trevor Gott all in the mix for high-leverage situations. Until Mark Kotsay confirms Miller’s role, it’s purely speculation. However, the talented pitcher’s outings and eye-popping velocities may result in a reliable reliever in save opportunities.
Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 12)
Baltimore Orioles – Making his third appearance this spring, Yennier Cano retired the side in order, recording two strikeouts. He owns a 0.33 WHIP with five strikeouts against zero walks over three innings. Cionel Pérez navigated around two hits and a walk for a scoreless sixth.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Evan Phillips worked a scoreless eighth inning, walking one and striking out one. He’s made five appearances this spring, recording a 0.40 WHIP with six strikeouts versus one walk over five innings.
Oakland A’s – Although he let his only inherited runner score, Dany Jiménez collected his first spring win, giving up a hit and a walk while retiring two batters in the fifth. After five outings this spring, he owns a 1.07 WHIP with five strikeouts against two walks through 4.2 innings.
San Francisco Giants – Getting in work during the fourth inning, Camilo Doval navigated around two hits for a scoreless outing. This marked his fourth outing this spring, he owns a 1.25 WHIP with five strikeouts against two walks over four innings.
Washington Nationals – Hunter Harvey fired 1.1 clean frames while striking out two. He’s made five spring outings and owns a 1.13 WHIP with a 9:1 K:BB over 5.1 innings. Kyle Finnegan faced two batters, striking both out, in the top of the ninth. He’s logged five appearances and posed a 0.43 WHIP with nine strikeouts against one walk.
Closer Monkey’s filthy outing of the day goes to prospect, Jackson Jobe. He will be a starting pitcher, but recorded his first spring save, turning in a clean ninth, and striking out two while hitting triple digits on the radar.
Until next time, stay safe and be well.
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With March upon us and draft season on the horizon, it’s time for the first run of tiered rankings. It’s difficult to choose which reliever will be the “closer” for a few teams, and many may prefer avoiding certain situations, like these three:
At present, there are three writers ready at the wheel for Closer Monkey fueled by Reliever Recon. Myself (Greg Jewett), Nate Marcum, and Aaron Pags. Being three individuals, there will be different relievers in each of our tiers, but they will be shared at the same time with quick thoughts or explanations of why our tier differs from the perceived consensus. As with any rankings, they are our own, not gospel. If anyone feels differently about a reliever, then it’s clear how they should handle him during their draft or auction. Enjoy.
Tier One
Greg
Edwin Díaz (NYM)
Jhoan Durán (MIN)
Devin Williams (MIL)
Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
Nothing crazy here. Strong “closer” candidates with ratio insulation, and three with strikeout upside. Many remain wary of Emmanuel Clase but he’s entering his Age-26 season coming off a career-worst WHIP courtesy of an inflated batting average on balls in play (BAbip). His team construct helps save chances accumulate. If he cuts his blown saves in half last year, he would have made a run at 50. Jhoan Durán remains the reliever I believe will turn in the breakout performance of the year. He could record 100 strikeouts, last year 473 of his 1,017 pitches were 100 m.p.h. or faster in 2023, most among MLB pitchers. He’s thrown 865 100-plus pitches since 2022, also the most among major-league pitchers.
Nate
Edwin Díaz (NYM)
Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
Jhoan Durán (MIN)
The common names atop most draft boards when it’s time for RP. A notable exception is Devin Williams, which is not a slight on his potential, but based on the potential for a trade when the Brewers are no longer contenders. While the fire has supposedly been extinguished, I still have my reservations. The name I have in my 1st Tier that could seem out of place to some is Raisel Iglesias. Iglesias’ strikeout percentage was a tick down, but his ground ball rate was supported by a solid Braves infield. As good a chance as there is in baseball for 30 saves, that is if the Braves don’t win every game by 10.
Aaron
Josh Hader (HOU)
Devin Williams (MIL)
Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
Camilo Doval (SFG)
Edwin Díaz (NYM)
The Doval Guy
So, I am the Doval guy! And it has nothing to do with his ability but is 100 percent about his stability. For me, he is one of five relievers with a less than one percent chance of losing their job to anyone on their team’s roster. That makes him a tier-one closer. But also, Camilo Doval‘s 2023 season showcased him as a vital force for the San Francisco Giants, marked by impressive stats, including a 2.93 ERA over 67.2 innings and 87 strikeouts. Despite a rocky start and a notable streak of four consecutive blown saves, a first for a Giants closer, Doval demonstrated resilience and excellence, especially from May onwards, significantly contributing to the team’s midseason turnaround. His stellar performance, underscored by his All-Star selection, solidified his status as a key player, despite a late-season slump that raised questions about overuse.
Tier Two
Greg:
Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
Josh Hader (HOU)
Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
Camilo Doval (SFG)
Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
Jordan Romano (TOR)
David Bednar (PIT)
Some veterans mixed in with a little bit of upside. Recent news about Matt Brash means Andrés Muñoz could gain the primary save share like Paul Sewald held last year. If he notches 30 or more saves and remains healthy, he’s a top-five reliever in fantasy. There may be some migration toward the mean for David Bednar and Camilo Doval, but they each secured 39 saves last year. For Pete Fairbanks, it’s all about health. More innings yield more fantasy goodness. I’m likely the low man on Josh Hader. He’s seen his K-BB percentage decline in each of the last two years, he’s in a deep bullpen, and not recorded more than 60 innings since 2019.
**With the recent injury news about Bednar, he’s been moved to the end of this tier.**
Nate:
Devin Williams (MIL)
Josh Hader (HOU)
Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
David Bednar (PIT)
Evan Phillips (LAD)
Camilo Doval (SFG)
Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
This tier is where I will most likely do most of my RP fishing during drafts. The concerns I have for Williams’ team security are minimal. Hader may have his hiccups, but with a track record as long as his, the double-digit walk percentage in three of the last four years is a wart worth looking past. The fact that he hasn’t had 60-plus innings means the days of 100 strikeouts are gone. If I could get a full season out of Fairbanks guaranteed, he may appear in the first tier in 2025. The Rays’ neglect for a true closer may be over. Evan Phillips may be the “outlier” in this tier for me. Similar to Iglesias and others, his team construct is set to build up his save total “floor”, but may limit his “ceiling” with their offensive output. Over the past two seasons, Phillips has a combined 1.59 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. Andrés Muñoz’s value remains intact with the news of Matt Brash’s injury. Both Camilo Doval and David Bednar are convenient RP1 anchors for those who want to cast their line into the second tier.
Aaron:
Jordan Romano (TOR)
Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
Alexis Díaz (CIN)
Jhoan Durán (MIN)
David Bednar (PIT)
Paul Sewald (ARI)
Evan Phillips (LAD)
Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
Durán’s Health
I know you can say, “But health…” for anyone, however, Jhoan Durán has a history that shouldn’t be dismissed quickly. He missed the 2020 season due to COVID-19 and experienced arm issues in 2021. Despite a strong start post-recovery, he struggled in June and was shut down for the season without undergoing surgery. In 2022, he showed promise in spring training, secured a spot on the Opening Day roster, and became a key bullpen arm, cautiously managing to avoid overuse. His performance in 2023 was strong, marked by a slight increase in ERA and WHIP but maintained a high strikeout rate, despite not being selected as an All-Star. But, he was unleashed more often than last year. His powerful pitching arm also raises concerns about potential injury risks, as has been noted in many studies of the past.
Tier Three
Greg
Alexis Díaz (CIN)
Evan Phillips (LAD)
Tanner Scott (MIA)
Ryan Helsley (STL)
Paul Sewald (ARI)
Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
Clay Holmes (NYY)
Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
If the Reds can keep Alexis Díaz fresh, he may finish the season strong, but it’s still an if. When viewing his end-of-year statistics, do not forget he owned a 2.10 ERA and 36 saves through his first 66 games (until September 15). Tanner Scott provides strikeout upside if the command gains hold. Evan Phillips represents the only qualified reliever to do this over the last two years. Ryan Helsley could be the steal in this tier if he’s healthy all season. Steady and unsexy options also lie in this tier like Craig Kimbrel, Paul Sewald, Clay Holmes, and Adbert Alzolay.
Nate
Paul Sewald (ARI)
Tanner Scott (MIA)
Ryan Helsley (STL)
Alexis Díaz (CIN)
Jordan Romano (TOR)
Clay Holmes (NYY)
The best “values” could be in my third tier. Alexis Diaz flashed in his first season as “the guy” in Cincy. Diaz’s 37 saves still only accounted for 70 percent of the Reds’ total saves. Seeing how his second half compared to his first, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him with a similar team save percentage. Oliver Marmol turned to Ryan Helsley down the stretch of 2023 and was rewarded with a 0.77 ERA, a .108 batting average against, and a 0.86 WHIP. There will be many who don’t trust the Cardinals’ to stick with Helsley, but I think they will.
Aaron
Tanner Scott (MIA)
Clay Holmes (NYY)
Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
José Alvarado (PHI)
Ryan Helsley (STL)
Kenley Jansen (BOS)
Tier Four
Greg:
Kenley Jansen (BOS)
José Alvarado (PHI)
Hunter Harvey (WSH)
Carlos Estévez (LAA)
Robert Suarez (SDP)
Alex Lange (DET)
Welcome into the volatile tier of relievers. This could be where many see a cliff during their drafts. Kenley Jansen could be a fallback option for many, but where he pitches will make a difference. A trade could move him up, or down in this process. José Alvarado has the velocity and skillset, but his pre-and-post-injury splits last year cannot be ignored. Carlos Estévez and Alex Lange may open the year as the preferred save option for their respective teams, but can they stay there?
Nate
Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
Kenley Jansen (BOS)
José Alvarado (PHI)
If you don’t have your first reliever by now, let’s hold hands and say a prayer. While there are many household names (Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen), it will require some guts to trust as your RP anchor. Both of those two are in situations that are conducive to plenty of opportunities, but what they do with those opportunities is yet to be seen. Jansen is also “most likely to screw up a good closer situation for another team” in 2024.
Alvarado will get the first crack this season, but injuries were rough last year, and we have Pags along with my favorite “closer in waiting”, Orion Kerkering lurking. Say that five times fast.
Aaron
Robert Suarez (SDP)
Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
Mason Miller (OAK)
Alex Lange (DET)
Will Smith (KCR)
Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
Robert Stephenson (LAA)
Wild for Will
If you told me that I would ever be the high-man on Will Smith in reliever rankings, I would have laughed in your face. His fastball STINKS ON ICE! However, he always seems to wriggle his way into promising fantasy baseball situations. Kansas City is no different. Veteran presence during a rebuild is a must, especially in high leverage spots. Sure, a trade is always likely with the Royals and their relievers, but saves in April, May, June, and July can equate to value. Just jump off the bucking horse before it’s too late.
Tier Five
Greg
José Leclerc (TEX)
Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
Will Smith (KCR)
Yuki Matsui (SDP)
Mason Miller (OAK)
Tyler Kinley (COL)
John Brebbia (CWS)
Pick your poison in this tier. It’s sort of wide open and should be used as an end-game option during a build. For the “never pay for saves” crowd, this will be what it looks like at the end of your draft. Feeling lucky? From purely a skills perspective, Miller could be a steal in this tier if the A’s make him their primary save share. But it’s speculative until his manager anoints him.
Nate:
José Leclerc (TEX)
Alex Lange (DET)
Yuki Matsui (SDP)
Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
I would love to have one of these relievers as my third RP, but grabbing three RPs in a draft and still having balance is nearly impossible. That being said, each of these as your RP2 could result in a full season of production, but most likely indigestion. Alex Lange gets mentioned in the same breath as Mark Melancon, which is gross. I can’t quit José Leclerc, but I acknowledge that he needs to throw strikes to keep his job. Yuki Matsui could see his draft stock rise during the Spring, but I still think it could be an uphill battle to overtake Suarez. I have Matsui here and not Suarez because I think Matsui will eventually take the job. In Washington, it’s choose your stance. Harvey is the better pitcher. Finnegan has a “proven” track record of saves.
Aaron:
Hunter Harvey (WSH)
José Leclerc (TEX)
Jason Adam (TBR)
Ryan Pressly (HOU)
Hector Neris (CHC)
David Robertson (TEX)
Thanks for checking out our reliever tiers. If interested, check out Closer Monkey’s updated bullpen depth charts.
Wednesday did not feature a doubleheader, with the second game in Atlanta being postponed, but it did provide nine reliever wins. Two were relievers replacing a struggling starter while their team held the lead (Adam Ottavino and Sam Moll), and one was in a bulk relief outing (Jakob Junis). There were only four saves, including Joel Payamps getting the vulture save, his first since April.
There’s a fine line in high-leverage events, which boxscores cannot always capture. Two such circumstances will be covered in today’s takeaways and when the Brewers’ bullpen hierarchy will receive a boost.
Three Takeaways
The Phillies’ rough road trip: Coming out of the All-Star break on the road, Philadelphia lost two games, during which it led by three runs. This was not the case on Wednesday, but Gregory Soto could have done better in his audition for a larger role in his team’s hierarchy. He was awarded the win on Tuesday despite uncorking a wild pitch and only throwing two strikes of his nine pitches. Yesterday, he suffered the loss, throwing another wild pitch and only six of his 12 pitches in the strike zone. Matt Gelb of The Athletic covered this topic and the team’s trade deadline modus operandi. Within the post, he suggested José Alvarado may retake his lost leverage role after his demotion, which represented a wakeup call. Because of the varied results over the last 30 days, the hierarchy has not been altered. As the weekend usage patterns unfold, and trade rumors gain traction, it will adapt. For now, this link displays the team’s Win Probability Added results from the last 30 days and this table with their results by reliever:
A missed call derails McArthur: One cannot sugarcoat James McArthur giving up five earned runs in a blown save meltdown, especially since he produced an average exit velocity of 101.1 m.p.h. among his six batted ball events. However, with one out and a full count, he issued a walk on a pitch in the strike zone, which affected his outing. It’s discussed in Anne Rogers’ game recap for MLB.com, along with quotes from his teammates standing by the reliever. It’s a fine line relievers walk in save situations, and with Hunter Harvey wriggling out of his own messy situation in the eighth, the Royals may be in the market for one more veteran with “closer” experience ahead of the deadline. For now, McArthur will be on watch for a hierarchy shift, and here’s the illustrator courtesy of Statcast on ball four:
D-Will’s timeline: Devin Williams may be on the precipice of rejoining the Brewers after making his third rehab appearance and second at Triple-A. He tossed a scoreless inning, issuing a walk and striking out two on 19 pitches (52.6 Strike%) with three whiffs (15.8 SwStr%). Although the team suggested he may require six to eight outings before returning, his recall may be expedited by team need and some positivity following Christian Yelich’s unfortunate back injury. Those hoping they can stash the talented closer should act sooner rather than later. His last hurdle may be pitching on consecutive days or two times in a three-day span unless the team sees his velocity last night as a sign of him being ready.
Next, our condensed game recaps cover Wednesday’s high-leverage events of interest.
Closer CliffsNotes
American League
Cleveland Guardians – Preserving a one-run win, Emmanuel Clase worked a scoreless top of the ninth, allowing a walk and striking out one for his 31st save. He threw 17 pitches (12 strikes – 70.6 Strike%) and induced one whiff against the Tigers’ 9-1-2-3 batters. He’s converted 18 straight save chances since May 20 and has been scoreless over his last four.
Hunter Gaddis collected his fourth win after firing a clean eighth, striking out the side on 12 pitches.
Tim Herrin retired both batters in the seventh.
Scott Barlow tossed 1.1 clean frames, striking out one.
Hierarchy remains: Emmanuel Clase | Hunter Gaddis | Scott Barlow
Kansas City Royals -Handed a one-run lead in the top of the ninth, James McArthur suffered his fourth loss and fifth blown save after being a strike away from preserving a win. He allowed a one-out Lourdes Gurriel Jr. single and a walk to Geraldo Perdomo, followed by Gabriel Moreno’s go-ahead two-RBI double. Corbin Carroll reached on an infield single, and Ketel Marte launched a three-run home run. McArthur finished with four hits allowed, five earned runs, and a walk while striking out one.
Hunter Harvey tossed a scoreless eighth, giving up a walk, and recorded his 27th hold.
Sam Long retired the side in the seventh, striking out one for his third hold.
Hierarchy remains (for now): James McArthur | Hunter Harvey | John Schreiber
Los Angeles Angels – Capping a come-from-behind win, Carlos Estévez nailed down his 20th save, retiring the side in Seattle. He threw nine pitches (77.8 Strike%) and induced one whiff against the 6-7-8 lineup pocket. This extends his scoreless streak to 18 games. He’s recorded a win and 13 saves with 15 strikeouts versus two walks across his last 18 innings.
Luis García notched his 11th hold, allowing a hit during a scoreless eighth.
Hans Crouse earned his fourth win. He allowed a hit and struck out two in a scoreless seventh, ahead of his team’s two-run rally in the top of the eighth.
Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Luis García | Ben Joyce
Minnesota Twins – Despite throwing 27 pitches last night, Jhoan Durán took over a tied game in the top of the ninth. He dispensed the top of the Phillies’ lineup in order and recorded a strikeout on 10 pitches (60 Strike%) with one whiff. He collected his sixth win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the frame.
Cole Sands fired a clean eighth and recorded two strikeouts.
In his first appearance since May 1, Brock Stewart allowed a hit, an earned run, and a walk while striking out one.
Chicago Cubs – Tasked with the top of the ninth during a tied game, Héctor Neris suffered his third loss. He allowed Blake Perkins’ lead-off single and a one-out, William Contreras RBI double, resulting in the team’s 22nd loss in a one-run contest. This snapped Neris’ nine-game scoreless streak.
Mark Leiter Jr. tossed a clean eighth and struck out one.
Porter Hodge issued a walk and recorded two strikeouts in a scoreless seventh.
Tyson Miller was tagged with his first blown save, letting one of two inherited runners score while allowing two hits in two-thirds of the sixth.
Hierarchy remains: Héctor Neris | Mark Leiter Jr. | Porter Hodge
Miami Marlins – Not only did Tanner Scott record his 17th save with a scoreless ninth against the Orioles, but he’s completed a reliever no-hitter with nine straight hitless appearances, spanning 9.2 innings since June 27. He worked around a hit-batter with two strikeouts during the three-run win, throwing 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) with two whiffs (13.3 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless over his last 15 games with 19 strikeouts against five walks.
A.J. Puk fired two clean frames while recording three strikeouts and collected his fourth win. He owns a 13-game scoreless streak with four wins and 22 strikeouts versus three walks across 15 innings.
Andrew Nardi notched his 11th hold, retiring the side and striking out two in the sixth.
Hierarchy remains: Tanner Scott | A.J. Puk | Calvin Faucher
Milwaukee Brewers – Recording his fifth save, and first since April 24, Joel Payamps fired a clean bottom of the ninth, preserving a one-run win over the Cubs. He threw 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (26.7 SwStr%). He’s on a five-game scoreless streak.
Jakob Junis collected his third win. He logged three scoreless innings, allowing a hit and a walk while striking out one, benefiting from his team’s rally in the top of the ninth.
Bryse Wilson worked four innings, giving up Seiya Suzuki’s solo home run and recording three strikeouts.
Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Elvis Peguero | Bryan Hudson
Philadelphia Phillies – Vying for a larger leverage role, Gregory Soto was summoned into a tied contest in the bottom of the ninth. However, his command did him in. He hit Trevor Larnach, putting the lead-off hitter aboard, uncorked a wild pitch, moving him to second, and a sacrifice bunt got him to third with one out. Soto induced a groundball by Max Kepler, but it was up the middle and let the runner score for a walk-off rally, resulting in his fourth loss.
Jeff Hoffman tossed a scoreless eighth, allowing a hit and striking out two on 21 pitches (66.7 Strke%) with three whiffs (14.3 SwStr%).
Matt Strahm suffered his fifth blown save, letting all three inherited runners score on a fielder’s choice groundout and Carlos Santana’s two-RBI double.
Orion Kerkering gave up three earned runs on a hit batter and two walks during his one-third of the seventh but was credited with his tenth hold.
Cade Smith (CLE): Clase, Gaddis, and Barlow have all appeared in back-to-back contests.
A.J. Puk (MIA): Scott has pitched in two straight, and if the team’s showcasing for trade, what better way than Puk in a save chance?
David Robertson (TEX): If the team can give Kirby Yates an extra day off after working three straight, they should. If not, Robertson could be in line for Friday.
Ben Joyce (LAA): Estévez and García have appeared three times in the last four days. If they work again today, Joyce will be in line for Friday.
Vulture Save Option for Friday, July 26
*See above. Otherwise, it’s dependent on usage patterns today, with 14 teams receiving an off-day.
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Tuesday night’s 14 games featured six reliever wins and nine saves. There was a rainout, which means Atlanta and Cincinnati will play a doubleheader on today’s slate. There were two ancillary saves, including the first of the season by Matt Strahm.
Last night’s most common theme was command, which affected results by some key leverage relievers, covered in today’s takeaways.
Three Takeaways
Durán suffers his fifth loss: Entering a scoreless game in the top of the ninth, Jhoan Durán allowed a one-out Bryce Harper double, issued consecutive walks, and gave up a go-ahead Brandon Marsh sacrifice fly, followed by a two-RBI Nick Castellanos double. He was removed after giving up three runs and suffered his fifth loss. His final line was two hits, three earned runs, and two walks over two-thirds of an inning. He threw 27 pitches (11 strikes – 40.7 Strike%) and only induced one whiff. Before this appearance, Durán posted 16 strikeouts against four walks across 16 innings while recording five wins and converting five of six save chances. Rocco Baldelli stood by his closer in postgame comments, but he must command his arsenal better than this moving forward:
Did Hoffman issue two walks?: Before Durán’s outing in the ninth, Jeff Hoffman could not finish the eighth inning for the Phillies. He handed out two walks for the first time in any appearance this season and the first time since August 2 last year. He threw 20 pitches (55 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (15 SwStr%) against the Twins’ 9-1-2-3 lineup pocket before his removal. Although he’s been scoreless through seven games in July, he’s allowed four walks during his last 3.2 innings.
Dodgers call on Phillips?: Alex Vesia began his outing in the ninth with a four-run lead by issuing consecutive walks. He had allowed two walks against his previous 46 batters. After allowing an earned run and his pitch count rising, Evan Phillips took over for Vesia and walked Jorge Soler before getting a game-ending groundout for his 15th save. Suggesting Phillips is past his recent struggles would be premature, but he’s still in Dave Roberts’ trust tree and has been placed back into our updated bullpen hierarchy below.
Our condensed game recaps cover Tuesday’s high-leverage events of interest.
Also, we updated the reliever buy/sell posts with less than a week before the trade deadline:
Cleveland Guardians – Shutting the door on his American League-leading 30th save, Emmanuel Clase preserved a one-run while retiring the side against Detroit. He threw nine pitches (88.9 Strike%) without a whiff and has converted his last 17 save opportunities since May 20. His 116 saves since the start of 2022 leads all major league relievers.
Scott Barlow secured his 18th hold, allowing a hit and striking out one in a scoreless eighth.
Hunter Gaddis notched his 21st hold despite letting both inherited runners score on a sacrifice fly and his throwing error. He issued a walk during two-thirds of the seventh.
Nick Sandlin gave up a hit, two runs (one earned), and a walk while striking out one in one-third of the seventh.
Cade Smith collected his fifth win, logging 1.2 clean frames and recording three strikeouts.
Hierarchy remains: Emmanuel Clase | Hunter Gaddis | Scott Barlow
Tampa Bay Rays – Securing his 19th save, Pete Fairbanks retired the side, closing out a two-run win in Toronto. He threw 11 pitches (72.7 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s converted six straight save chances despite allowing a run in three outings.
Jason Adam recorded his 19th hold, firing a clean eighth and striking out one. Kevin Kelly tossed a clean seventh for his 12th hold.
Manuel Rodriguez was credited with his fourth hold, although he allowed two solo home runs in the sixth.
Tyler Alexander collected his third win, logging three scoreless frames as the “bulk follower,” scattering three hits and striking out four.
Hierarchy remains: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche
Texas Rangers – Summoned for a third straight game, Kirby Yates retired both batters, one via strikeout, while recording his 18th save. He threw six pitches (83.3 Strike%) and induced one whiff (16.7 SwStr%). He’s converted seven saves in July with 13 strikeouts against three walks across 8.2 innings.
Josh Sborz gets credit for his sixth hold. He allowed Andrew Benintendi’s solo home run leading off the ninth and recorded a strikeout over two-thirds combined innings.
Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | José Leclerc
National League
Los Angeles Dodgers – With a three-run lead, two runners on, and two outs, the Dodgers called upon Evan Phillips to face Jorge Soler. Although he issued a walk loading the bases, he induced a game-ending LaMonte Wade Jr. groundout for his 15th save, his first since July 5. He threw nine pitches (33.3 Strike%) without a whiff.
Alex Vesia struggled with his command, walking the first two batters he faced and allowing an RBI single before recording two outs. He was removed after throwing 26 pitches (15 strikes – 57.7 Strike%) and only getting one whiff. He had issued two walks in his previous 46 batters faced over 12 games.
Blake Treinen secured his eighth hold, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out one in a scoreless eighth.
Brent Honeywell logged two scoreless frames, yielding a hit for his first hold.
Miami Marlins – Not only did Tanner Scott record his 17th save with a scoreless ninth against the Orioles, but he’s completed a reliever no-hitter with nine straight hitless appearances, spanning 9.2 innings since June 27. He worked around a hit-batter with two strikeouts during the three-run win, throwing 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) with two whiffs (13.3 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless over his last 15 games with 19 strikeouts against five walks.
A.J. Puk fired two clean frames while recording three strikeouts and collected his fourth win. He owns a 13-game scoreless streak with four wins and 22 strikeouts versus three walks across 15 innings.
Andrew Nardi notched his 11th hold, retiring the side and striking out two in the sixth.
Hierarchy remains: Tanner Scott | A.J. Puk | Calvin Faucher
Milwaukee Brewers – Navigating around a lead-off single, Trevor Megill retired the next three hitters for a scoreless ninth, preserving a shutout during his 20th save. He threw 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. He’s converted three of four save opportunities in July and been scoreless in five of seven appearances.
Jared Koenig worked around two hits and a walk for a scoreless eighth, hanging on for his fight hold.
Elvis Peguero collected his sixth win, tossing a clean seventh and striking out one.
Bryan Hudson worked a clean sixth, recording one strikeout.
Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Elvis Peguero | Bryan Hudson
New York Mets – With limited bullpen options, Jake Diekman stepped up for his teammates. He posted his fourth save with a scoreless bottom of the ninth, preserving a one-run win over the Yankees. He navigated around a one-out Juan Soto walk with a strikeout of Aaron Judge and a game-ending ground-out by Ben Rice.
Phil Maton notched his 12th hold, walking one and striking out one in a scoreless eighth.
Dedniel Núñez secured his ninth hold, issuing a walk and striking out one in a scoreless seventh.
Alex Young retired two batters and stranded one for his fifth hold in the sixth.
Adam Ottavino gave up two hits and an earned run during his one-third of the sixth, getting credit for his 14th hold.
Hierarchy remains: Edwin Díaz | Dedniel Núñez | Phil Maton
Philadelphia Phillies – Capping a ninth-inning rally, Matt Strahm secured his first save. He retired the side and recorded two strikeouts in the bottom of the ninth against the Twins, throwing 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) with two whiffs (18.2 SwStr%).
Gregory Soto collected his first win, issuing a walk and stranding two runners in the bottom of the eighth, retiring his only batter via a fielder’s choice groundout.
Jeff Hoffman issued two walks and recorded two strikeouts in the eighth but was removed after two outs. He remains unscored upon through seven appearances in July, but this outing represents the first time all year he’s allowed more than one walk.
St. Louis Cardinals – Nailing down his MLB-leading 33rd save, Ryan Helsley preserved a one-run in Pittsburgh by striking out the side. He threw 13 pitches (9 strikes – 69.2 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (18.6 SwStr%). This represents his 17th clean save, leading all relievers this season.
Ryan Fernandez collected his first win. He induced an inning-ending groundball double play in the eighth and stranded a runner, ahead of his team taking the lead in the top of the ninth.
JoJo Romero suffered his fifth blown save, giving up two hits and an earned run during one-third of the eighth. Andrew Kittredge secured his 27th hold, retiring the side and striking out one in the seventh.
Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero
Vulture Save Options for Wednesday, July 24
David Robertson (TEX): Yates has appeared in three straight games, leaving the veteran atop the hierarchy for today’s contest against the White Sox.
Jakob Junis (MIL): Megill has pitched in three of the last four days. Junis should be in line for a multiple-inning outing. He’s recorded two wins and a save through four outings in July. Joel Payamps may get the save chance, but it depends on how the late-innings progress.
Grant Holmes (ATL): Same idea as Junis, with a doubleheader on tap, he may absorb a multi-inning appearance with a shot at a vulture win or save finishing up a contest. Pierce Johnson could also be in play as the preferred vulture save chance if Atlanta can sweep Cincinnati.
Vulture Save Options for Thursday, July 25
Scott Barlow (CLE): If Clase and Gaddis pitch today, and Barlow does not, he would be in line for the save on Thursday.
A.J. Puk (MIA): If Scott appears today, Puk could get the vulture save chance on Thursday.
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