With March upon us and draft season on the horizon, it’s time for the first run of tiered rankings. It’s difficult to choose which reliever will be the “closer” for a few teams, and many may prefer avoiding certain situations, like these three:
At present, there are three writers ready at the wheel for Closer Monkey fueled by Reliever Recon. Myself (Greg Jewett), Nate Marcum, and Aaron Pags. Being three individuals, there will be different relievers in each of our tiers, but they will be shared at the same time with quick thoughts or explanations of why our tier differs from the perceived consensus. As with any rankings, they are our own, not gospel. If anyone feels differently about a reliever, then it’s clear how they should handle him during their draft or auction. Enjoy.
Tier One
Greg
- Edwin Díaz (NYM)
- Jhoan Durán (MIN)
- Devin Williams (MIL)
- Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
Nothing crazy here. Strong “closer” candidates with ratio insulation, and three with strikeout upside. Many remain wary of Emmanuel Clase but he’s entering his Age-26 season coming off a career-worst WHIP courtesy of an inflated batting average on balls in play (BAbip). His team construct helps save chances accumulate. If he cuts his blown saves in half last year, he would have made a run at 50. Jhoan Durán remains the reliever I believe will turn in the breakout performance of the year. He could record 100 strikeouts, last year 473 of his 1,017 pitches were 100 m.p.h. or faster in 2023, most among MLB pitchers. He’s thrown 865 100-plus pitches since 2022, also the most among major-league pitchers.
Nate
- Edwin Díaz (NYM)
- Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
- Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
- Jhoan Durán (MIN)
The common names atop most draft boards when it’s time for RP. A notable exception is Devin Williams, which is not a slight on his potential, but based on the potential for a trade when the Brewers are no longer contenders. While the fire has supposedly been extinguished, I still have my reservations. The name I have in my 1st Tier that could seem out of place to some is Raisel Iglesias. Iglesias’ strikeout percentage was a tick down, but his ground ball rate was supported by a solid Braves infield. As good a chance as there is in baseball for 30 saves, that is if the Braves don’t win every game by 10.
Aaron
- Josh Hader (HOU)
- Devin Williams (MIL)
- Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
- Camilo Doval (SFG)
- Edwin Díaz (NYM)
The Doval Guy
So, I am the Doval guy! And it has nothing to do with his ability but is 100 percent about his stability. For me, he is one of five relievers with a less than one percent chance of losing their job to anyone on their team’s roster. That makes him a tier-one closer.
But also, Camilo Doval‘s 2023 season showcased him as a vital force for the San Francisco Giants, marked by impressive stats, including a 2.93 ERA over 67.2 innings and 87 strikeouts. Despite a rocky start and a notable streak of four consecutive blown saves, a first for a Giants closer, Doval demonstrated resilience and excellence, especially from May onwards, significantly contributing to the team’s midseason turnaround. His stellar performance, underscored by his All-Star selection, solidified his status as a key player, despite a late-season slump that raised questions about overuse.
Tier Two
Greg:
- Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
- Josh Hader (HOU)
- Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
- Camilo Doval (SFG)
- Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
- Jordan Romano (TOR)
- David Bednar (PIT)
Some veterans mixed in with a little bit of upside. Recent news about Matt Brash means Andrés Muñoz could gain the primary save share like Paul Sewald held last year. If he notches 30 or more saves and remains healthy, he’s a top-five reliever in fantasy. There may be some migration toward the mean for David Bednar and Camilo Doval, but they each secured 39 saves last year. For Pete Fairbanks, it’s all about health. More innings yield more fantasy goodness. I’m likely the low man on Josh Hader. He’s seen his K-BB percentage decline in each of the last two years, he’s in a deep bullpen, and not recorded more than 60 innings since 2019.
**With the recent injury news about Bednar, he’s been moved to the end of this tier.**
Nate:
- Devin Williams (MIL)
- Josh Hader (HOU)
- Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
- David Bednar (PIT)
- Evan Phillips (LAD)
- Camilo Doval (SFG)
- Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
This tier is where I will most likely do most of my RP fishing during drafts. The concerns I have for Williams’ team security are minimal. Hader may have his hiccups, but with a track record as long as his, the double-digit walk percentage in three of the last four years is a wart worth looking past. The fact that he hasn’t had 60-plus innings means the days of 100 strikeouts are gone. If I could get a full season out of Fairbanks guaranteed, he may appear in the first tier in 2025. The Rays’ neglect for a true closer may be over. Evan Phillips may be the “outlier” in this tier for me. Similar to Iglesias and others, his team construct is set to build up his save total “floor”, but may limit his “ceiling” with their offensive output. Over the past two seasons, Phillips has a combined 1.59 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. Andrés Muñoz’s value remains intact with the news of Matt Brash’s injury. Both Camilo Doval and David Bednar are convenient RP1 anchors for those who want to cast their line into the second tier.
Aaron:
- Jordan Romano (TOR)
- Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
- Alexis Díaz (CIN)
- Jhoan Durán (MIN)
- David Bednar (PIT)
- Paul Sewald (ARI)
- Evan Phillips (LAD)
- Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
Durán’s Health
I know you can say, “But health…” for anyone, however, Jhoan Durán has a history that shouldn’t be dismissed quickly. He missed the 2020 season due to COVID-19 and experienced arm issues in 2021. Despite a strong start post-recovery, he struggled in June and was shut down for the season without undergoing surgery. In 2022, he showed promise in spring training, secured a spot on the Opening Day roster, and became a key bullpen arm, cautiously managing to avoid overuse. His performance in 2023 was strong, marked by a slight increase in ERA and WHIP but maintained a high strikeout rate, despite not being selected as an All-Star. But, he was unleashed more often than last year. His powerful pitching arm also raises concerns about potential injury risks, as has been noted in many studies of the past.
Tier Three
Greg
- Alexis Díaz (CIN)
- Evan Phillips (LAD)
- Tanner Scott (MIA)
- Ryan Helsley (STL)
- Paul Sewald (ARI)
- Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
- Clay Holmes (NYY)
- Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
If the Reds can keep Alexis Díaz fresh, he may finish the season strong, but it’s still an if. When viewing his end-of-year statistics, do not forget he owned a 2.10 ERA and 36 saves through his first 66 games (until September 15). Tanner Scott provides strikeout upside if the command gains hold. Evan Phillips represents the only qualified reliever to do this over the last two years. Ryan Helsley could be the steal in this tier if he’s healthy all season. Steady and unsexy options also lie in this tier like Craig Kimbrel, Paul Sewald, Clay Holmes, and Adbert Alzolay.
Nate
- Paul Sewald (ARI)
- Tanner Scott (MIA)
- Ryan Helsley (STL)
- Alexis Díaz (CIN)
- Jordan Romano (TOR)
- Clay Holmes (NYY)
The best “values” could be in my third tier. Alexis Diaz flashed in his first season as “the guy” in Cincy. Diaz’s 37 saves still only accounted for 70 percent of the Reds’ total saves. Seeing how his second half compared to his first, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him with a similar team save percentage. Oliver Marmol turned to Ryan Helsley down the stretch of 2023 and was rewarded with a 0.77 ERA, a .108 batting average against, and a 0.86 WHIP. There will be many who don’t trust the Cardinals’ to stick with Helsley, but I think they will.
Aaron
- Tanner Scott (MIA)
- Clay Holmes (NYY)
- Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
- Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
- José Alvarado (PHI)
- Ryan Helsley (STL)
- Kenley Jansen (BOS)
Tier Four
Greg:
- Kenley Jansen (BOS)
- José Alvarado (PHI)
- Hunter Harvey (WSH)
- Carlos Estévez (LAA)
- Robert Suarez (SDP)
- Alex Lange (DET)
Welcome into the volatile tier of relievers. This could be where many see a cliff during their drafts. Kenley Jansen could be a fallback option for many, but where he pitches will make a difference. A trade could move him up, or down in this process. José Alvarado has the velocity and skillset, but his pre-and-post-injury splits last year cannot be ignored. Carlos Estévez and Alex Lange may open the year as the preferred save option for their respective teams, but can they stay there?
Nate
- Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
- Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
- Kenley Jansen (BOS)
- José Alvarado (PHI)
If you don’t have your first reliever by now, let’s hold hands and say a prayer. While there are many household names (Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen), it will require some guts to trust as your RP anchor. Both of those two are in situations that are conducive to plenty of opportunities, but what they do with those opportunities is yet to be seen. Jansen is also “most likely to screw up a good closer situation for another team” in 2024.
Alvarado will get the first crack this season, but injuries were rough last year, and we have Pags along with my favorite “closer in waiting”, Orion Kerkering lurking. Say that five times fast.
Aaron
- Robert Suarez (SDP)
- Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
- Mason Miller (OAK)
- Alex Lange (DET)
- Will Smith (KCR)
- Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
- Robert Stephenson (LAA)
Wild for Will
If you told me that I would ever be the high-man on Will Smith in reliever rankings, I would have laughed in your face. His fastball STINKS ON ICE! However, he always seems to wriggle his way into promising fantasy baseball situations. Kansas City is no different. Veteran presence during a rebuild is a must, especially in high leverage spots. Sure, a trade is always likely with the Royals and their relievers, but saves in April, May, June, and July can equate to value. Just jump off the bucking horse before it’s too late.
Tier Five
Greg
- José Leclerc (TEX)
- Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
- Will Smith (KCR)
- Yuki Matsui (SDP)
- Mason Miller (OAK)
- Tyler Kinley (COL)
- John Brebbia (CWS)
Pick your poison in this tier. It’s sort of wide open and should be used as an end-game option during a build. For the “never pay for saves” crowd, this will be what it looks like at the end of your draft. Feeling lucky? From purely a skills perspective, Miller could be a steal in this tier if the A’s make him their primary save share. But it’s speculative until his manager anoints him.
Nate:
- José Leclerc (TEX)
- Alex Lange (DET)
- Yuki Matsui (SDP)
- Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
I would love to have one of these relievers as my third RP, but grabbing three RPs in a draft and still having balance is nearly impossible. That being said, each of these as your RP2 could result in a full season of production, but most likely indigestion. Alex Lange gets mentioned in the same breath as Mark Melancon, which is gross. I can’t quit José Leclerc, but I acknowledge that he needs to throw strikes to keep his job. Yuki Matsui could see his draft stock rise during the Spring, but I still think it could be an uphill battle to overtake Suarez. I have Matsui here and not Suarez because I think Matsui will eventually take the job. In Washington, it’s choose your stance. Harvey is the better pitcher. Finnegan has a “proven” track record of saves.
Aaron:
- Hunter Harvey (WSH)
- José Leclerc (TEX)
- Jason Adam (TBR)
- Ryan Pressly (HOU)
- Hector Neris (CHC)
- David Robertson (TEX)
Thanks for checking out our reliever tiers. If interested, check out Closer Monkey’s updated bullpen depth charts.
