2016 NL East preview

March 2, 2016

Atlanta Braves – In all likelihood, Arodys Vizcaino will be the Atlanta closer by year’s end. The question is whether he’ll start the year with the role. As you may recall, veteran Jason Grilli was perfectly respectable — good, even — before rupturing his Achillies last summer, and has reported to camp assuming that he’ll be the closer. Pretty much every veteran on the Braves roster will be expendable come summer time, so even if Grilli wins the job, it’s probably a three-month gig, but this battle will be one to watch in Spring Training. Beyond those two, your league would have to be really, really deep for you to be looking at anyone else. If that’s the case, though, Jim Johnson is kicking around and could nab a few holds if he proves he can still pitch, and promising youngster Shae Simmons could return as early as May.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Grilli | Vizcaino | Johnson.
Holds candidates: Vizcaino, Johnson.

Miami Marlins – News broke Tuesday that Carter Capps was headed for an MRI on his throwing elbow, potentially scuttling what would have been one of the more interesting Spring Training closer battles. If Capps is OK, he has the potential to be something special, regardless of where you stand on his illegal delivery. But elbow MRIs rarely end well, meaning AJ Ramos is likely to start the season as the Miami closer, with Bryan Morris and Mike Dunn behind him. We will monitor Capps closely.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Ramos | Capps | Morris.
Holds candidates: Capps, Morris, Dunn.

New York Mets – Jeurys Familia came out of nowhere last season to post one of the most dominant seasons in the majors, and he enters 2016 as a top ten closer. His handcuffs are a little unclear, due to Jenrry Mejia becoming the first player to be permanently banned from MLB after testing positive for PEDs for the third time — for those tracking at home, that’s just one fewer than the number of companies that Donald Trump has bankrupted. (**After our Democratic primary joke on Monday, we’ve now fulfilled our obligation to make jokes about both political parties. Please don’t rage-unsubscribe. Thank you.**) But in all likelihood, the 8th inning will be handled by Addison Reed, who recaptured some of his form after joining the Mets late in the year. Antonio Bastardo, Hansel Robles, and Jerry Blevins will be tasked with getting the ball to Reed and Familia.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Familia | Reed | Bastardo.
Holds candidates: Reed, Bastardo, Robles. 

Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies traded one of their last valuable assets in Ken Giles during the offseason, leaving them with a hodgepodge of washed-up former closers (David Hernandez! Ernesto Frieri! Andrew Bailey! Edward Mujica!) and not-good-enough-yet youngsters vying for the 9th inning role. Though this is one of the most wide-open races in baseball, beat writers have labeled Hernandez the early favorite, as he was the only reliever to sign a guaranteed major league contract with the Phillies in the offseason. Hernandez got off to a strong start yesterday, firing a perfect inning in his first action of the spring. If he wins the job, his handcuff will probably be whichever former closer listed above can make the roster. If none of them do, Luis Garcia and Jeanmar Gomez are both, uh, kind of OK.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Hernandez | Garcia | Gomez.
Holds candidates: Garcia, Gomez. 

Washington Nationals – Jonathan Papelbon’s first act of the spring was to apologize for being the worst, and to his credit, his teammates seem to be enjoying his presence. So we’ll continue to recommend him as a reliable source for saves who will likely fall in your draft just because people don’t like him very much. (He hasn’t averaged a strikeout per inning in three years, but has compensated by mostly keeping the ball in the ballpark and issuing hardly any walks.) Shawn Kelley was signed to a 3-year, $15 million deal in the offseason and is loosely penciled in to the 8th inning role, but the Nationals have a lot of nice depth, also boasting promising youngsters Felipe Rivero, Trevor Gott, and Blake Treinen, along with veterans Yusmeiro Petit and Oliver Perez. We’ll figure on Rivero being the 7th inning man for now.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Papelbon | Kelley | Rivero.
Holds candidates: Kelley, Rivero, Gott.

2016 NL Central preview

March 2, 2016

Chicago Cubs – Hector Rondon took over the closer role in July, and never looked back. Joe Maddon has always been a wild-card with his bullpen, (see: Fernando Rodney’s career), but Rondon enters 2016 with a firm grip on the late innings for what is projected to be one of the best teams in the league. Behind him, Pedro Strop and Justin Grimm will take the setup spots. While we think Strop will start the year getting the 8th inning, and would likely take over if Rondon struggles early, but Grimm is younger and has better numbers over the last two year. Also, Joe Maddon said recently that Grimm has “the kind of stuff that finishes games” while adding that he hopes that he stays in the role he had last year. Travis Wood and Rex Brothers will battle for the LOOGY role, but neither is likely to be in the mix for consistent saves in the early going.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Rondon | Strop | Grimm.
Holds candidates: Strop, Grimm, Brothers, Wood.

Cincinnati Reds – The departure of (recently suspended) Aroldis Chapman leaves a void in the back end of the Reds bullpen. When Chapman missed time last year, Jumbo Diaz and JJ Hoover took most of the save opportunities with mixed results. Both relievers struggled, but both also had stretches of dominance. Hoover has been announced as the first one to take the closer’s role, but the Reds will have Diaz ready to take over if Hoover doesn’t start well. With the team in rebuilding mode, the bullpen is likely to be in flux all year, but Blake Wood and Tony Cingrani are likely to lead the charge in the middle innings. Wood has electric stuff, but struggles with command, while Cingrani was a top prospect as a starter, who will spend spring training prepping as a reliever. Both will get chances at the back end of the Reds bullpen, but are not likely to close as long as Hoover and Diaz are in the way.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Hoover | Diaz | Cingrani.
Holds candidates: Diaz, Cingrani, Wood.

Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers had one of the most surprisingly stable bullpens in 2015, but the exit of Francisco Rodriguez leaves Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress singing Just the Two of Us. (We will run out of these eventually.) Smith and Jeffress will battle for the first shot at the closer role, but it will be an open competition, and Craig Counsell has already hinted at committee, saying “that’s not even a job really.” We think that Smith has the inside track, both because he has slightly better ratios and Jeffress is battling a minor injury, but this has all the makings of a dreaded closer-by-committee. Behind the frontrunners is former first round draft pick Corey Knebel, who could turn some heads this year with his swing-and-miss stuff if he can stay healthy.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Smith | Jeffress | Knebel.
Holds candidates: Jeffress, Knebel, Blazek.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Last year’s NL Reliever of the Year and major league saves leader Mark Melancon returns to the closers role in 2016. While he had a couple of struggles last year, Melancon never lost the closers job, and will likely have a longer leash this year. Tony Watson will take the set-up role, and feels comfortable closing if called upon. Jared Hughes will fill the role left by Antonio Bastardo and Joakim Soria in the early going, but fireballer Arquimedes Caminero will also be in the mix for holds. The Pirates have a solid set of relievers and figure to be in the hunt for the playoffs again in 2016, so they can be a good source of holds in leagues that count them.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Melancon | Watson | Hughes.
Holds candidates: Watson, Hughes, Caminero.

St. Louis Cardinals – Trevor Rosenthal leads the always strong Cardinals bullpen again in 2016. With 48 saves last year, he is as locked in as anybody, but he does have an unusually strong set of relievers behind him. Top set up option Kevin Siegrist filled in at times as the closer and was dominant, while former closers Jonathan Broxton and Jordan Walden bring the always discussed “closing experience” to the table as well. Seth Maness has been a workhorse, and a sleeper in holds leagues, and if that wasn’t enough, the Cardinals picked up international free agent Seung Hwan Oh, who saved 41 games pitching in Japan last year. Oh has been talked about as a competitor for the set up job, and does boast a great nickname (“Final Boss.”) but with the other options in the crowded Cardinals bullpen, he will likely have to earn his way to the late innings. Jordan Walden is coming back from a shoulder injury that cost him the end of the 2015 season, but looks to be ready to start the season.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Rosenthal | Siegrist | Broxton.
2016 Holds Candidates: Siegrist, Broxton, Maness, Oh, Walden.

2016 NL West preview

March 2, 2016

Arizona Diamondbacks – There are few question marks for the Diamondbacks bullpen heading into 2016. Brad Ziegler earned the ninth inning midway through last season and never looked back. He’ll have two strong options handing him the lead, as Daniel Hudson and newly-signed Tyler Clippard will handle the seventh and eighth innings. Clippard, who is happy to accept any role in the bullpen, is making $4.1 million this year and probably has the edge for the eighth over Hudson.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Ziegler | Clippard | Hudson.
Holds candidates: Clippard, Hudson, Andrew Chafin.

Colorado Rockies – Jake McGee came to Colorado in an offseason trade, and should slot in as the team’s closer after Adam Ottavino hit the 60-day DL. The team also signed veterans Jason Motte and Chad Qualls to bolster the bullpen. In addition, the Rockies have two young arms in Jairo Diaz an Justin Miller who throw hard and impressed last season.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: McGee | Motte | Qualls.
Holds candidates: Motte, Qualls, Miller.

Los Angeles Dodgers – After nearly trading for Aroldis Chapman, the Dodgers will head into 2016 with Kenley Jansen as the closer once again. Jansen has been one of the best closers in baseball over the last three seasons, and while his bridge is full of potential candidates, two appear to be leading the pack. Chris Hatcher got the majority of the eighth-inning work at the end of the season and will likely retain that role to begin 2016. If Pedro Baez can locate his 100-mph fastball, he’ll be a good seventh-inning option. Yimi Garcia is also in the mix for the seventh, with lefties Luis Avilan and JP Howell candidates for holds.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Jansen | Hatcher | Baez.
Holds candidates: Hatcher, Baez, Garcia, Howell.

San Diego Padres – Old friend Fernando Rodney will likely emerge from spring training as the team’s closer, but how long he remains in the ninth inning is a complete mystery. The other mystery is who emerges from a wide-open bullpen. Former Toronto Closer Casey Janssen was invited to camp, but has to make the team first. Kevin Quackenbush is nursing a sore hamstring after a not-so-good 2015. Jon Edwards saved 23 games in triple-A last season, but he has control issues. Nick Vincent was a solid September call-up, while former Drew Pomeranz may be an option if he’s not slotted into the starting rotation.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Rodney | Quackenbush | Edwards.
Holds candidates: Quackenbush, Edwards, Pomeranz.

San Francisco Giants – The Giants bullpen saw a lot of work last season, which may help explain a 19-28 record in one-run games last season. Back to close will be Santiago Casilla, with Sergio Romo in the eighth inning again. Hunter Strickland will be the most likely seventh-inning arm, but keep an eye out for hard-throwing Josh Osich.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Casilla | Romo | Strickland.
Holds candidates: Romo, Strickland, Osich.

2016 AL East preview

February 29, 2016

Baltimore Orioles — Zach Britton and Darren O’Day will be back in the roles they’ve dominated since Tommy Hunter’s demotion last May. The seventh inning should be left in the capable hands of Mychal Givens and Brad Brach.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Britton | O’Day | Givens.
Holds candidates: O’Day, Givens, Brach.

Boston Red Sox — What a difference this offseason made for the dog’s breakfast of a Fenway bullpen. A November trade installed Craig Kimbrel in the closer role; although he led the league in saves each year between 2011 and 2014, he’s still only 27. Setting up Kimbrel will be the ageless Koji Uehara, back from his broken wrist and giving Sox opponents two very different looks in the late innings. The seventh inning should belong to Carson Smith and his crazy release point, with Junichi Tazawa and Robbie Ross, Jr. providing further depth. And don’t look now, but Carlos Marmol got a minor league deal from Boston, and there’s already talk that he might be back to his effective self again.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Kimbrel | Uehara | Smith.
Holds candidates: Uehara, Smith, Tazawa.

New York Yankees — You may have heard a little about these guys — the only three relievers to strike out over 100 batters in 2015, combining to compensate for a Yankee offense so old it got invited to a Democratic debate. The major complicating factor is a possible domestic violence suspension for Aroldis Chapman, which could sideline him as many as 45 days. In that event, New York would turn to last year’s dynamic duo of Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Chapman | Miller | Betances.
Holds candidates: Miller, Betances, Chasen Shreve.

Tampa Bay Rays — Brad Boxberger will hold onto the closer role he inherited last season, but with Jake McGee out of the picture, it’s the newly acquired Danny Farquhar who will be his chief assistant. Behind them are familiar names like Xavier Cedeno, Alex Colome, and Steve Geltz, although Enny Romero is a longshot worth watching.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Boxberger | Farquhar | Cedeno.
Holds candidates: Farquhar, Cedeno, Geltz.

Toronto Blue Jays — It’ll be a spring training battle for the closer role between incumbent Roberto Osuna and newcomer Drew Storen. Storen, who was displaced from the ninth a few times in Washington, is expressing a team-first attitude about his role, and we think he has the edge over Osuna, whose usage will be somewhat limited. Brett Cecil should be in line for the seventh, but if you want a deep sleeper with Storen-edging experience, Rafael Soriano just joined the team as well.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Storen | Osuna | Cecil.
Holds candidates: Osuna, Cecil, Aaron Sanchez.

2016 AL Central preview

February 29, 2016

Chicago White Sox – The back end of the White Sox bullpen settled into a nice groove at the end of last season and the good news is that all of the key members will be returning for 2016.  David Robertson has established himself as a solid closer, with the potential to be elite, after he finished last season with a WHIP under 1.00 and 86 Ks in only 63.1 innings.  Flamethrower Nate Jones pitched well after returning toward the end of last season, and has been impressive so far this spring.  Matt Albers re-signed after a successful first year with the White Sox and should slot into the late innings too.  Zach Duke could see time in the later innings as well, as a situational lefty.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Robertson | Jones | Albers.
Holds candidates: Jones, Albers, Duke.

Cleveland Indians – Cody Allen will close again for the Indians in 2016, and Bryan Shaw should return to the set-up role.  Zach McAllister will get a chance to compete for a spot in the starting rotation, but is more likely to end up at the back end of the bullpen.  Jeff Manship is coming off an incredible year, and we’ll slide him into 2nd in line while McAllister fights for a rotation spot.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Allen | Shaw | Manship.
Holds candidates: Shaw, Manship.

Detroit Tigers — The Detroit Tigers have revamped their bullpen for 2016.  They acquired veteran closer Francisco Rodriguez — who was a little late to spring training due to visa issues — as well as Mark Lowe and Justin Wilson.  Alex Wilson was the team’s best relief pitcher last year and he will return in 2016, though likely in a middle relief role.  Talented Bruce Rondon is also back, after being sent home early last season, and could factor into the late-inning plans if he can get his act together.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Rodriguez | Lowe | J. Wilson.
Holds candidates: Lowe, Justin Wilson, Alex Wilson.

Kansas City Royals – The Royals won the World Series on the strength of their bullpen last year and bring back several key members, including closer Wade Davis, who has been pretty good the past two seasons.  They also added former closer Joakim Soria, who should share set-up duties with Kelvin Herrera.  Veteran Luke Hochevar also returns and should see time in the later innings.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Davis | Soria | Herrera.
Holds candidates: Soria, Herrera, Hochevar.

Minnesota Twins — Glen Perkins had a tough second half of 2015, but he will start 2016 as the closer for the Twins again.  Kevin Jepsen filled in for Perkins at the end of last season and will be right behind him in case anything happens, and Casey Fien will also return.  Trevor May pitched well out of the pen last season, but he could move to the starting rotation this year.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Perkins | Jepsen | Fien.
Holds candidates: Jepsen, Fien, Fernando Abad.