2015 NL Central preview

March 8, 2015

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs enter the season with more certainty at closer than they have had in years. Hector Rondon did not waste his opportunity last year, and enters this year with Joe Maddon already committing to him as the closer. Maddon has never been shy about using his closer in non-save spots though, so that takes a bite out of Rondon’s value and adds some to the other relief options. There are a lot of power arms available in the Cubs bullpen, so the true hierarchy will probably be in flux early on. Pedro Strop will start in the set-up role and Neil Ramirez will be in line in case they falter. Maddon also spoke highly of their major pickup Jason Motte, calling him a “force multiplier.” And with the recent addition of Phil Coke, they found the lefty specialist that they were looking for, and he should be in line for any LOOGY holds that pop up. Overall, the Cubs have a lot of solid options in the bullpen, but that hurts each player’s individual value, especially with Maddon’s tendency to use his best relievers in the highest-leverage spots, without worrying if they will pick up a hold or a save.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Rondon | Strop | Ramirez.
Holds candidates: Strop, Ramirez.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds bullpen has a fantasy monster in closer Aroldis Chapman. When healthy, he is the most dominant relief pitcher in the game, and will rack up K’s as quickly as some starting pitchers. Behind him, Cincy is a bit of a mess. Jumbo Diaz was a solid option for them last year, and will likely start with the 8th inning duties, but he doesn’t have overpowering stuff. Sam LeCure was a consistent performer last year, but despite injuries and poor performances around him, he only found himself in 2 save opportunities all season. Newly acquired Kevin Gregg has closing experience, but at 38 and coming off an injury, he will have to prove himself before he gets the call. Sean Marshall was supposed to be the primary left hander, but injuries last year and a recent setback in his recovery have slowed his return. Finally, J.J. Hoover is trying to forget his 2014 campaign, and the early returns are solid, striking out the side in his first appearance in spring training. With a multitude of options, nobody really stands out. The best bets for holds early on are Diaz and LeCure. If Marshall and Gregg can recover from their injuries, or if Hoover regains some of his form, then they could run away with the set up job, but nothing but an injury is going to unseat the Cuban Missile in the closer role.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Chapman | Diaz | LeCure
Holds candidates: Diaz, LeCure.

Milwaukee Brewers – With the re-signing of Francisco Rodriguez, and the addition of Jonathan Broxton, the top two spots in the Milwaukee pen seem to be pretty well set. That’s what we thought last year as well, before a surprise appearance of K-Rod coming on to close instead of Jim Henderson. Rodriguez never looked back, and racked up 44 saves over a very solid season. This year the job is his to lose, but he has yet to report to camp. The Brewers say they are not worried, but if his absence stretches later into March we know that Ron Roenicke isn’t afraid to defy expectations. Will Smith will be the primary lefty in the pen and should see plenty of work against right handed hitters as well. If he can Focus on avoiding a mid-season lull like last year, he is a strong candidate for holds as he led the league in appearances with 78. Jim Henderson is a sleeper candidate for saves as the former closer is trying to make a comeback from a forgettable 2014.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Rodriguez | Broxton | Smith.
Holds candidates: Broxton, Smith.

Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates head into the season with no major changes to their bullpen. Mark Melancon will get the first shot at saves after taking over the closers role last year — he converted 23 of 24 save opportunities down the stretch and was instrumental in Pittsburgh’s playoff run. Behind him, the Pirates will turn to lefty Tony Watson as their primary set up man, who has value as a middle reliever, particularly in holds leagues, as a strikeout-per-inning pitcher who doesn’t walk many batters. Newly acquired Antonio Bastardo joins him as the other lefty in the pen, with Jared Hughes also in the mix for late-inning work. In holds leagues, the pride of New Zealand, John Holdzkom, is a sleeper candidate for high leverage innings. He has a power arm and performed well in his brief call up at the end of 2014, but he’s unproven in the majors and has minor league options available. The Pirates may send him down early, and lean on new acquisitions Arquimedes Caminero and former top prospect Radhames Liz to fill out the back end of their bullpen.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Melancon | Watson | Bastardo.
Holds candidates – Watson, Hughes.

St. Louis Cardinals – Trevor Rosenthal seems secure in his spot to start 2015, though the departure of All Star Pat Neshek has left a hole in the setup role. However, the Cardinals acquired Jordan Walden and Matt Belisle, who will likely slot into the late innings along with Kevin Siegrist. The Cardinals have made a habit of picking up relievers and making them stars, and that could happen with either of their new additions, or journeyman Carlos Villanueva. Villanueva has posted much better numbers as a reliever than as a starter, and if the Cards shift him to that role, he could be a poor man’s Pat Neshek.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Rosenthal | Walden | Belisle.
Holds candidates: Walden, Belisle.

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Joakim Soria and Rafael Soriano make their returns

September 11, 2014

Oakland A’s — After a successful outing on Wednesday, Sean Doolittle is on track to return from the DL on Friday.

Hierarchy remains: O’Flaherty | Cook | Gregerson.

Houston Astros — With a lefty-heavy Mariners lineup in the 9th, it was Tony Sipp (mentioned in Wednesday’s VSW) who earned the save last night. It’s Josh Fields who will get most of the save chances as long as Chad Qualls is hurt, however.

Updated hierarchy: Qualls | Fields | Sipp.

Detroit Tigers — Joakim Soria returned from the DL on Wednesday, giving up one run in the ninth with the team behind. If Joe Nathan’s arm troubles worsen, Brad Ausmus could turn to the experienced Soria.

Updated hierarchy: Nathan | Chamberlain | Soria.

Washington Nationals — Rafael Soriano returned from a five-day hiatus to pitch in a low-leverage outing on Wednesday. Club brass hopes he’ll be willing to accept a set-up role as the postseason approaches.

Hierarchy remains: Storen | Clippard | Soriano.

Kansas City Royals — With Greg Holland remaining unavailable, Wade Davis picked up another save on Wednesday.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

Baltimore Orioles — The Orioles led 10-1 entering the bottom of the ninth and somehow still managed to squeeze out a save for Darren O’Day. Joe Saunders gets credit for the assist; he gave up two more baserunners than starter Wei-Yin Chin, while recording only 20 fewer outs.

Hierarchy remains: Britton | O’Day | Miller.

NFL — After an anonymous law enforcement source claimed that he sent a copy of the damning Ray Rice video to NFL officials in April, commissioner Roger Goodell announced that former FBI director Robert Mueller will head up an investigation into the league’s handling of evidence in the case. As cries for his dismissal grow louder, Goodell should be looking over his shoulder at Condoleeza Rice, who combines impressive professional credentials with a deep love of football — and could allow the Ravens to repurpose all their now-worthless “RICE” jerseys. Also in the mix is the logorrheic choice of the football gods, Gregg “TMQ” Easterbrook, who has written more words about the NFL than you have ever said. About anything.

Updated hierarchy: Goodell | Rice | Easterbrook.
Roger Goodell to Hot Seat.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Josh Fields, Houston Astros — As noted, Chad Qualls remains unavailable.
2. Joe Smith, Los Angeles Angels — As does Huston Street, until Friday.
3. Kevin Quackenbush, San Diego Padres — No news yet on Joaquin Benoit’s return.
4. Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals — Greg Holland might still be hobbled.
5. Will Smith, Milwaukee Brewers — K-Rod and Jonathan Broxton have been used a lot the last few days, and Wisconsin loves Pig Latin rap.

Jonathan Broxton acquired by Brewers, will set-up for K-Rod

September 1, 2014

Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers acquired Jonathan Broxton from the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday and the big righty will share set-up duties with lefty Will Smith. With Francisco Rodriguez set to become a free agent next year — and Broxton under contract for $9 million — he’s among the favorites to close for the Brewers in 2015.

Updated hierarchy: Rodriguez | Broxton | Smith.

Cincinnati Reds – Jonathan Broxton’s departure elevates Jumbo Diaz into a set-up role, while Sam LeCure could see a few 7th inning holds.

Updated hierarchy: Chapman | Diaz | LeCure.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Kevin Quackenbush, San Diego Padres – Kevin Quackenbush is closing for the Padres with Joaquin Benoit nursing an injury.
2. Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals – Greg Holland has pitched in back to back games and four of five.
3. Bryan Shaw, Cleveland Indians – Cody Allen has pitched in back to back games and three of four, throwing 52 pitches.
4. Andrew Miller/Darren O’Day, Baltimore Orioles – Zach Britton has pitched in back to back games and three of four, though he’s only thrown 25 pitches.
5. Sergio Romo, San Francisco Giants – Sergio Romo’s perpetual existence on the Vulture Save Watch is compounded today by the fact that the Giants are resuming a make-up game against the Rockies and then them playing again. Should they have a save chance in both, it’ll probably be Santiago Casilla getting one, and Romo getting the other.
6. Adam Ottavino, Colorado Rockies – Likewise for the Rockies; it’s unlikely that LaTroy Hawkins pitches in both games.

John Axford claimed by Pirates; Brian Wilson gets knocked around

August 15, 2014

Cleveland Indians – The Indians placed John Axford on waivers earlier this month, and yesterday, he was claimed by the Pirates, who will pick up the remaining $1.1 million of his salary. We’ll leave him off the Pirates hierarchy until we see how they’re going to use him, but in Cleveland, look for Scott Atchison to continue his recent run of 7th inning holds.

Updated hierarchy: Allen | Shaw | Atchison.

Milwaukee Brewers – Will Smith has had an up and down season, which we’ve been thoroughly happy to chronicle with help from his IMDB page. Right now, he’s back on the upswing, with a bunch of recent 8th inning holds to his name. Last night, Smith pitched a perfect 8th with two strikeouts and is again the most likely candidate for saves when Francisco Rodriguez needs a night off.

Updated hierarchy: Rodriguez | Smith | Kintzler.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Brian Wilson had an ugly outing last night, allowing three earned runs in 0.2 innings and forcing Kenley Jansen into an extended appearance. Prior to last night, Wilson had been sort of decent lately, and his strikeout totals are still excellent (50 in 39.1 IPs). But he’s still walking way too many guys, leading to an ERA and WHIP of 5.26 and 1.70 — unseemly numbers for the would-be set-up man on the NL’s best team. With Brandon League pitching very effectively lately, Wilson might not be Jansen’s handcuff at this point. We’ll watch how this unfolds in the coming days.

Hierarchy remains: Jansen | Wilson | League.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays – With his appearance last night, Jake McGee has now worked 3 innings over the last 3 days.

Another Hitch for Will Smith

July 30, 2014

Milwaukee Brewers — With only one earned run allowed in his first 26 innings, we started the season with Men in Black Will Smith: a man astride his craft, untouchable by mere mortals. A few hiccups in June downgraded him to Hancock — a flawed, complicated hero — and when he started July with nine runs in two innings, he had become a full-fledged Wild Wild West, worth watching only when Salma Hayek was with him. Smith climbed back up to Shark Tale (good intentions; poor aim) with some mid-July success, but after allowing three runs in a third of an inning on Tuesday night, he hit rock bottom. After Earth. Jim Henderson’s last scheduled rehab session was rained out on Tuesday, but once the Brewers activate him, Smith should transition into more of a DJ Jazzy Jeff.

Hierarchy remains: Rodriguez | Kintzler | Smith.

Atlanta Braves — Shae Simmons’s recent struggles have been explained by a shoulder strain that has landed him on the disabled list. Anthony Varvaro should take Simmons’s place even after a rough outing on Tuesday, completing his heartwarming comeback from a broken leg in the 2006 Preakness. Recently recalled Juan Jaime has great stuff, but also walked almost a man an inning at AAA.

Updated hierarchy: Kimbrel | Walden | Varvaro.

Houston Astros — After a clean eighth from Josh Fields put Houston in the rare position to close out Oakland, Chad Qualls gave up five runs to pick up the loss. After the game, Bo Porter defended Qualls, saying that he has been the team’s best reliever all year. And Tony Sipp and his overlooked 12.2 K/9 ratio shed a single tear.

Hierarchy remains: Qualls | Fields | Sipp.

San Diego Padres — Still a “good chance” that Joaquin Benoit gets traded in the next few days, opening the door for Kevin Quackenbush.

Hierarchy remains: Benoit | Quackenbush | Thayer.

Philadelphia Phillies — Jonathan Papelbon certainly isn’t making it any easier on the Phillies, refusing to waive his no-trade clause for any team that won’t promise to let him close. A real stand-up guy, that Paps.

Hierarchy remains: Papelbon | Giles | Bastardo.

Colorado Rockies — LaTroy Hawkins is coveted by five or six teams as a set-up guy, but his strong influence in the clubhouse makes him very unlikely to move this week.

Hierarchy remains: Hawkins | Ottavino | Brothers.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Danny Farquhar, Seattle Mariners — Fernando Rodney’s 20-pitch outing on Tuesday was his fourth in the last five days.
2. Jonathan Broxton, Cincinnati Reds — Aroldis Chapman has pitched on three out of four days.
3. Dustin McGowan, Toronto Blue Jays — Casey Janssen has been used in three of four.
4. Dellin Betances/Adam Warren, New York Yankees — It was a tough night for all the Yankees relievers, but David Robertson labored through 31 pitches.