Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: National League

July 14, 2016

—–
Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR – NL relievers
BUY+: None.
BUY: Mauricio Cabrera, Jake Barrett, Edubray Ramos.
SELL: Arodys Vizcaino, Jeremy Jeffress, Jeanmar Gomez, Daniel Hudson, Tyler Clippard, Santiago Casilla.
SELL+: Hector Rondon.
—–

NL East

Atlanta Braves – The Braves have the worst record in baseball at the All-Star break and that will likely mean some players getting dealt at the trade deadline.  The Red Sox were rumored to be interested in closer Arodys Vizcaino. Veteran Jim Johnson, who the Braves traded last season, could be on the move again.  The Braves have a young flame thrower in Mauricio Cabrera, and they may want to audition him in the closer’s role in the second half of this season if Vizcaino is dealt. BUY: Jim Johnson, Mauricio Cabrera, SELL: Arodys Vizcaino.

Miami Marlins– The surprising Marlins have already acquired former Padres closer Fernando Rodney.  A.J. Ramos has been great and is still the closer, and the Marlins’ bullpen is deep with David Phelps and Kyle Barraclough. We don’t see any potential trades that would shake up the back end of this pen. BUY/SELL: None.

New York Mets – The Mets are all set at closer with All-Star Jeurys Familia, and set-up man Addison Reed had a stellar first half. The Mets could look to acquire some bullpen help, but it won’t affect Familia. BUY/SELL: None.

Philadelphia Phillies – After a disastrous start to the season for the Phillies’ bullpen, Jeanmar Gomez has developed into a reliable closer.  Gomez came out of nowhere to claim the job and, as a result, some think the Phillies would be smart to trade him now while his value is high.  Prospect Edubray Ramos has been impressive so far and that could also make Gomez expendable. BUY: Edubray Ramos, SELL: Jeanmar Gomez.

Washington Nationals – The Nationals have been mentioned as a possible landing spot for Aroldis Chapman; if that were to happen, Jonathan Papelbon would likely lose his job as closer. However, it’s probably more likely that the Nationals will not acquire an elite reliever such as Chapman, and Papelbon would keep the job over most other relievers on the market. We’ll still put a slight sell on Papelbon due to the Chapman rumors. SELL: Jonathan Papelbon.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs – Hector Rondon might be one of the most underrated closers in baseball, but that hasn’t stopped the rumors about the Cubs acquiring Aroldis Chapman or Andrew Miller (or both).  Miller seems to be the guy that is highest on the Cubs’ wish list and, given how dominant he has been this year, he would be expected to steal save chances from Rondon, if not completely take the job.  The Cubs have been struggling recently, so they will be aggressive at the trade deadline.  SELL: Hector Rondon.

Cincinnati Reds – Tony Cingrani has offered some stability to the Reds’ bullpen, and Raisel Iglesias has been solid in relief.  Still, their bullpen has been one of the worst in the majors this year, and it’s unlikely that any changes will dramatically alter that. BUY/SELL: None.

Milwaukee Brewers – With the Brewers 14.5 games back in the NL Central at the break, they will be looking to move some players.  A couple of the guys being mentioned are closer Jeremy Jeffress and set-up man Will Smith.  Jeffress is unlikely to close if he gets traded to a contender, so he could lose fantasy value.  Will Smith could close if Jeffress is traded — but Smith could also be dealt, which would open the door for Tyler Thornburg to get a shot at closing in the second half.   BUY: Tyler Thornburg, SELL: Jeremy Jeffress.

Pittsburgh Pirates – A few weeks ago, the Pirates were reeling, and it looked like they would be sellers at the deadline. However, a strong run to finish the first half has the Pirates back in the thick of things; as a result, closer Mark Melancon is probably not going to be moved. BUY/SELL: None.

St. Louis Cardinals – Trevor Rosenthal has had a rough season, and with Kevin Siegrist recently going on the DL, the Cardinals might be in the market for some bullpen help.  Seung Hwan Oh has been great for the Cardinals, but he’s still new to closing for the team, and could lose the job if they acquire someone else at the deadline. SELL: Seung Hwan Oh.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks – With closer Brad Ziegler already gone, the Diamondbacks could be looking to make more deals.  Tyler Clippard and Daniel Hudson are expected to share closing duties with Ziegler gone, but they could both be trade candidates as well.  Hudson is in the final year of his contract, and if he and Clippard are dealt, youngster Jake Barrett could get a look.  BUY: Jake Barrett, SELL: Daniel Hudson, Tyler Clippard.

Colorado Rockies – The Rockies’ bullpen is starting to get healthy, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out the rest of the season among current closer Carlos Estevez and former closers Jake McGee and Adam Ottavino. However, we don’t expect those three to be involved in any trades — so as far as the trade deadline goes, the Rockies bullpen should be pretty quiet. BUY/SELL: None

Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers have a stud closer in Kenley Jansen and won’t be making any deals to replace him at the deadline. Joe Blanton has turned into a reliable reliever, and Pedro Baez has been solid. If the Dodgers acquire any relief help, it will just add depth.  BUY/SELL: None.

San Diego Padres – The Padres already traded All-Star closer Fernando Rodney, and they will probably roll with Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter for the rest of the season to see what they have there. BUY/SELL: None.

San Francisco Giants – The Giants have the best record in baseball, but their bullpen hasn’t been great.  There has been some controversy around Santiago Casilla, who was very unhappy about being pulled in the middle of the inning during a couple save opportunities. Sergio Romo has returned from injury, and should help the bullpen, but the Giants have also been rumored to be interested in the Yankees’ big two, Miller and Chapman. If the Giants want to continue their streak of winning the World Series in even years, they might decide to upgrade their closer situation. SELL: Santiago Casilla.

Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: American League

July 13, 2016

Special Update (Part 1 of 2 — check back tomorrow for the National League)

—–
Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR – AL relievers
BUY+: Andrew Miller.
BUY: Dellin Betances; Trevor May; Cam Bedrosian; Ryan Dull.
SELL: Koji Uehara; Brandon Kintzler; Huston Street; Ryan Madson.
SELL+: Sam Dyson.
—–

AL East

Baltimore Orioles — The first-place Orioles have one of the best bullpens in the American League, and are not expected to make any moves. Ace set-up man Darren O’Day will rejoin the team over the weekend, although he has no timeline yet to return to the mound. BUY/SELL: None.

Boston Red Sox — Our first draft of this blurb advised that Boston might trade for middle relief help like Brad Ziegler. Now that the submariner calls Fenway home, GM Dave Dombrowski said that the bullpen was “pretty well set.” Craig Kimbrel’s prolonged absence might make him reconsider, however; the team’s current closer and top set-up guy were each born in the 1970s. An internal option to bolster the relief corps is 23-year-old Chandler Shepherd, who has excelled at Portland and Pawtucket this season. SELL: Koji Uehara.

New York Yankees — The Yankees hit the .500 mark in their final game before the break, and they continue to debate whether to buy or sell on the trade market. Whether they can contend this year or not, breaking up their ostentatious bullpen seems necessary — there are too many holes in the walls to keep the Lamborghini. If either Aroldis Chapman or Andrew Miller is traded, Miller seems a lock to close somewhere. In the unlikely event that both men go, Dellin Betances will get his shot. BUY+: Andrew Miller, BUY: Dellin Betances.

Tampa Bay Rays — All-Star Alex Colome has been one of the only bright spots in a truly dismal season for the Rays. The team might move one of their lefthanded set-up men, but that’s not going to impact anyone’s ninth. BUY/SELL: None.

Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto moved early, acquiring Jason Grilli from Atlanta way back in June. Although they might still be in the market to buy (Brandon Kintzler) or sell (Drew Storen) a middle reliever, Roberto Osuna’s job is safe. It seems likely that the impact set-up man the Jays will count on most down the stretch is currently their best starter. BUY/SELL: None.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox — After a great start, the Sox are scuffling near the .500 mark. If the team decides to reinforce the bullpen, it’s not likely that they bring in a name big enough to unseat David Robertson. BUY/SELL: None.

Cleveland Indians — Cleveland has opened up a 6.5-game lead in the division, and Cody Allen is a fixture in the closer role. BUY/SELL: None.

Detroit Tigers — The Tigers are happy with their bullpen, including the rejuvenated Bruce Rondon and the ageless K-Rod — who has a real chance to retire holding the career saves record. BUY/SELL: None.

Kansas City Royals — Kansas City’s bullpen is as dominant as ever (2.95 ERA in relief), and Wade Davis expects to return after the minimum 15-day stay on the disabled list. BUY/SELL: None.

Minnesota Twins — Brandon Kintzler has gotten some attention lately, and even manager Paul Molitor has admitted that his closer might be headed out the door. With arbitration-eligible lefty Fernando Abad also a trade target, it’s converted starter Trevor May who could stand to benefit most from a possible fire sale. BUY: Trevor May, SELL: Brandon Kintzler. 

AL West

Houston Astros — Houston is in the thick of the wild card race and has a surprisingly impressive bullpen (4.75 K-BB ratio!) to thank for it. If life were a baseball sim, the team might consider flipping Will Harris before he reverts to the mean, but it’s not. Life is a location-based augmented-reality game sometimes played on a baseball field. BUY/SELL: None.

Los Angeles Angels — Huston Street’s injuries and struggles have depressed his market, but a move isn’t entirely out of the question. Joe Smith is also a possibility to be traded in what has become a lost season for the Angels. BUY: Cam Bedrosian, SELL: Huston Street.

Oakland Athletics — Ryan Dull’s impressive season could encourage the A’s to move expensive Ryan Madson to a contender. BUY: Ryan Dull, SELL: Ryan Madson.

Seattle Mariners — If Seattle is going to make a push for the playoffs, they might consider an upgrade at closer — although it’s unlikely that they have the prospects needed to get that kind of return. In any event, Steve Cishek’s peripherals are still solid, and we don’t think the Mariners are going to give up on him yet. Joaquin Benoit is more likely to see a change of scenery. BUY/SELL: None.

Texas Rangers — By any metric, the Rangers have the worst bullpen in the American League, a fact they desperately want to change before October. Although Keone Kela should return this week, Texas could be in the market for someone like Jeremy Jeffress, Will Smith, or even Andrew Miller. SELL+: Sam Dyson.

Tyler Clippard inches to the front of the Diamondbacks committee

July 11, 2016

Arizona Diamondbacks – After their starter logged six innings, the Diamondbacks went first to Daniel Hudson for the 7th, then to Tyler Clippard for the 8th, in a losing effort. Though Chip Hale has said both relievers will get opportunities, it seems the pecking order is set, and Clippard is now more likely to get the first save chance after the All Star break.

Updated hierarchy: *Clippard | Hudson | Barrett.
* = closer-by-committee

Atlanta Braves – Arodys Vizcaino is suffering from some minor elbow troubles so Jim Johnson picked up the save in his place. If Vizcaino is dealt, Johnson and youngster Mauricio Cabrera will be battling for saves in Atlanta. (Stay tuned for our Trade Deadline Buy/Sell previews during the All Star break!)

Updated hierarchy: Vizcaino | Johnson | Cabrera.

Oakland A’s – Ryan Madson blew his second consecutive save on Sunday, and he now has five blown saves on the year. With Oakland looking to sell off parts, they’re probably going to give him every chance to turn it around so they can maximize his trade value. (Hey, did we mention we’ll be doing Trade Deadline previews?)

Hierarchy remains: Madson | Dull | Axford.

Uehara and Herrera pick up saves

July 10, 2016

Boston Red Sox — Koji Uehara struck out two in a scoreless ninth inning on Saturday for his fourth save of the season.  Manager John Farrell has named Uehara the closer while Kimbrel is out.  Newly acquired Brad Ziegler will see save chances only when Uehara is unavailable for now.

Hierarchy remains: Uehara | Ziegler | Barnes.

Kansas City Royals — Kelvin Herrera recorded his first save of the year yesterday.  Herrera pitched a perfect ninth, while Soria pitched a scoreless eighth inning.  It appears Ned Yost will go with the reliever pitching better over closing experience at this point so we will move Herrera to the head of the committee.  However, it may be short lived as Wade Davis threw back-to-back days pain free, and will assume the closer’s role as soon as he returns.

Updated hierarchy: *Herrera | Soria | Hochevar.
* = closer-by-committee

Chicago White Sox — With David Robertson unavailable, Nate Jones got four outs to record his third save of the season.  Robertson will be out until after the All-Star break, and Jones should continue to close while he is out.

Hierarchy remains: Robertson | Jones | Duke.

Oakland A’s – Ryan Dull’s streak of stranding inherited runners ended on Saturday but he still picked up his first save of the season.   Regular closer Ryan Madson was unavailable, and Dull should continue to see save chances when Madson can’t go.

Hierarchy remains: Madson | Dull | Axford.

Minnesota Twins – Fernando Abad’s struggles continued on Saturday; he has given up at least one run in five of his last seven appearances.  Brandon Kintzler came on to clean up Abad’s mess in the eighth inning, and even though he gave up a run of his own in the ninth, he recorded his fifth save of the year.  Kintzler is seeing most of the save chances and pitching better than Abad so we will drop the asterisk.  Trevor May pitched a scoreless seventh inning with two strikeouts, and now has three scoreless innings since returning from the DL.  May’s strikeout numbers are great and he could work his way into the saves conversation if he continues to throw up zeroes.

Updated hierarchy: Kintzler | Abad | May.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Jared Hughes pitched the last three innings of a Pirates’ blowout win to record the save.  Hughes has pitched pretty well this season but the Pirates’ back end of the bullpen is pretty set right now with Melancon, Feliz, and Watson.

Hierarchy remains: Melancon | Feliz | Watson.

Colorado Rockies — Jordan Lyles picked up the second three inning save of Saturday in a Rockies’ five run victory.  Lyles does not figure into the Rockies’ regular late inning plans.

Hierarchy remains: Estevez | McGee | Ottavino.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Nate Jones, Chicago White Sox – David Robertson is out with a leg injury.
2. Brad Ziegler, Boston Red Sox – Koji Uehara has pitched in two straight.
3. Pedro Baez, Los Angeles Dodgers – Kenley Jansen and Joe Blanton have both pitched in two straight and three of four.
4. David Phelps, Miami Marlins – AJ Ramos and Fernando Rodney have both appeared in two straight.
5. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals – The Royals could still give the veteran a shot at saves.

 

Craig Kimbrel to miss 3-6 weeks after knee surgery

July 9, 2016

Boston Red Sox — Craig Kimbrel will have surgery to replace cartilage in his left knee, and is expected to be out 3-6 weeks. Newly-acquired Brad Ziegler and veteran Koji Uehara should close in Kimbrel’s absence, with Uehara likely getting the first crack in the two-man committee since Ziegler is unavailable tonight. Matt Barnes will join the hierarchy as the bridge to Uehara and Ziegler.

Updated hierarchy: *Uehara | Ziegler | Barnes.
* = closer-by-committee