Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: National League

July 13, 2017

Special Update (Part 2 of 2 — read Part 1 here)

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Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR – NL relievers
BUY+: None.
BUY: Arodys Vizcaino, Kyle Barraclough, CJ Edwards, Phil Maton.
SELL: Jim Johnson, AJ Ramos, Addison Reed, Brandon Maurer.
SELL+: Matt Albers.
—–

NL East

Atlanta Braves – Atlanta was a pleasant surprise in the first half, as they’re hovering around .500. But given the fact that they’re taking calls for their ace, they’re still much more likely to be sellers than buyers come the end of the month, and if that’s the case, they’d love to get virtually anything for Jim Johnson. Johnson did them no favors by melting down in his last appearance of the first half, but his peripherals are still strong (FIP: 2.66, 48 Ks in 38.1 IP) and a bullpen-hungry team could make a run at him. He’s unlikely to close if he goes anywhere other than Washington, though, so look for his value to drop precipitously if he’s moved. Arodys Vizcaino would inherit the job if Johnson goes anywhere. BUY: Arodys Vizcaino; SELL: Jim Johnson.

Miami Marlins – Several teams are reportedly interested in AJ Ramos and David Phelps, which could pave the way for Kyle Barraclough to close in Miami for the latter portion of the season. Phelps’s value is unlikely to change much unless he goes to Washington, where he could conceivably be used as a closer, while Ramos is likely to lose some value as he’d probably be used as a set-up man wherever he lands. But he’s got one year of arbitration left before he hits free agency after 2018, so the Marlins might want to hang on to him for next year unless they can get a decent haul. BUY: Kyle Barraclough; SELL: AJ Ramos.

New York Mets – The Mets will most likely be selling at the deadline, with Addison Reed and his expiring contract being a player they’ll be shopping hard. Unfortunately for Reed owners, most trade scenarios result in him returning to a set-up role, where he excelled in 2016. He’d close if he landed in Washington (are we a broken record on this yet?), but the Mets don’t appear likely to send him there. There’s no obvious handcuff for Reed right now, so if he’s dealt, look for the Mets to either go the committee route, or to give the first crack to whoever is pitching the best a few weeks from now. Jerry Blevins would have been a decent candidate, though he could be on the block as well, and hasn’t been pitching great lately after being overworked in the early going. Paul Sewald is worth monitoring, while Fernando Salas has been terrible, but does have some closing experience. BUY: None; SELL: Addison Reed.

Philadelphia Phillies – Hector Neris is the only name in Philadelphia to worry about, but it’s very unlikely he’s going anywhere. The Phillies have him under team control for four more years, and he just hasn’t been all that good this year, so it’s unlikely a contending team ponies up with what would be required to get him. We’re betting he stays put through the deadline. BUY/SELL: None.

Washington Nationals – Matt Albers has brought a bit of stability to the back end of the Washington bullpen as of late, and is probably going to become the de facto full-time closer once the second half gets under way. But the Nationals will definitely be looking to acquire a high-end stopper to displace the big righty as they prepare for a postseason which is practically in the bag already. BUY: None. SELL+: Matt Albers.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs have been disappointing this season and find themselves only five games back in the extremely mediocre NL Central, but the bullpen has been one area of strength for the defending World Series champions. The Cubs are still very much alive for the postseason, and will likely be buyers at the deadline, but they need starting pitching, not relievers. In the event that the Cubs decide to blow it up and come back next year, Wade Davis (1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 0 blown saves), who is in the last year of his deal, is a major trade chip. With reliable veteran Koji Uehara and up and coming C.J. Edwards behind him, the Cubs could afford to ship Davis, but its hard to see them making a deal like this unless they have given up on the postseason. If they are sellers, Uehara would likely be out as well. That having been said, Davis is likely to close for any team he ends up on, making any trade a bit of a wash for him. If the Cubs are sellers, they would likely see if Edwards (2 years before arbitration) can be a reliable closer, so we’ll put a soft buy on him. It’s most likely, though, that the Cubs don’t make any bullpen changes. BUY: CJ Edwards; SELL: None.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds’ rebuilding process continues, which means that any of their bullpen options could be available. Drew Storen has been quietly effective for the Reds, and with his contract up this year, he could be a cheap rental for any team looking for bullpen help, but he likely would not close for anybody at this point. The most intriguing option is Raisel Iglesias, who has put together an excellent season as the team’s primary closer (1.69 ERA, 0.91 WHIP). Washington is a potential landing spot for the young righty, and if he goes there, he would probably be handed the closer’s role immediately. Michael Lorenzen would be the immediate beneficiary of any deal, but with Iglesias under team control through 2020, it would have to be a major haul in order to pry him out of Cincinnati. Washington has the prospects to pull it off, but it remains to be seen if they are desperate enough for bullpen help that they would part with a Victor Robles, even for a long-term fix like Iglesias. BUY/SELL: None.

Milwaukee Brewers – The surprise leaders of the NL Central have already swatted away the idea of renting players, saying that any pieces they add would need to have some long-term appeal. With that, the Brewers aren’t likely to add to their bullpen. Corey Knebel is enjoying an excellent run as the closer since taking the job in early May, and any acquisition would have a hard time unseating him. Behind him, Jacob Barnes, Jared Hughes, and Carlos Torres have all pitched effectively, so any trades would likely target other needs. Don’t expect any major moves out of the bullpen either, as all four have arbitration years left. BUY/SELL: None.

Pittsburgh Pirates – After running into the DUI / PED / testicular cancer trifecta of problems this year, the Pirates never really got off the ground and are likely to sell at the deadline. GM Neal Huntington has said that he thinks they could be contenders next year, so a softer sell is more likely. The bullpen is always on the block, but closer Felipe Rivero is viewed as nearly untouchable given his team control through 2021. This leaves Tony Watson and Juan Nicasio as the most likely targets for trades. Both have expiring contracts, and while Nicasio has been good enough to draw interest on his own, Watson will mostly see interest as a lefty specialist, possibly with the Dodgers. Nicasio has an outside chance at falling into a closer spot (Nationals or Texans), but is far more likely to land a setup role with a contender. Overall, the Pirates are likely to shift pieces in their bullpen, but Rivero should stay locked in. BUY/SELL: None.

St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals, like the rest of the NL Central, will have to decide whether to be sellers or buyers at the deadline, and the next few weeks will determine the approach. The bullpen has been a weak point, so a push for the playoffs could lead them to address it. Seung Hwan Oh has been inconsistent, and a high profile closer could be brought in to replace him, but for the Cardinals to consider that, they’d need to go through a serious surge against a tough schedule over the next few weeks. The Cardinals have the prospect depth to make a move, but the question is how much emphasis they’ll want to put on the bullpen, especially for a short-term fix. It’s unlikely the Cardinals deal their top bullpen pieces. Oh still has arbitration years left, as does Rosenthal, and Brett Cecil has a large contract, so if a change is going to happen, it would likely a hot streak combined with struggles from Oh. BUY/SELL: None.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks – The surprising Diamondbacks are in a novel position — 9.5 games up in the wild card race in the topheavy NL, and looking to upgrade a few pieces for a playoff run. Torey Lovullo remains committed to Fernando Rodney, so although the team could add veteran bullpen depth behind him, we don’t expect a demotion due to trade. If Rodney returns to his mediocre form of April and early July, though, he could be sacked in favor of Archie Bradley (1.10 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) or a newly acquired reinforcement. BUY/SELL: None.

Colorado Rockies – Greg Holland has been outstanding in his debut season at Coors Field (1.62 ERA, 11.6 K/9), and Colorado won’t mess with what he’s got going on. Behind him in the bullpen is a different story; it would be no surprise to see the wild-card Rockies acquire a setup arm, like one of the Marlins’ relievers, Pat Neshek, or even intradivision rival Brad Hand. BUY/SELL: None.

Los Angeles Dodgers – The third NL West playoff team is also its best, but the Dodgers don’t appear content to rest on their laurels. Justin Wilson could be the perfect piece to get the ball to the phenomenal Kenley Jansen (0.96 ERA, 40.4% K-BB%, no blown saves). BUY/SELL: None.

San Diego Padres – Any playoff team would love to get lefty Brad Hand (2.30 ERA, 11.5 K/9, .200 BAA) for the right price, and it seems virtually certain that San Diego will cash him in before the deadline. The Yankees are one possible landing spot for Hand, but they’re also kicking the tires on closer Brandon Maurer, whose 5.60 ERA is a function of his mediocre strikeout rate, yes, but also some bad luck (.316 BABIP, 53% LOB%). After the dust settles, we like young Phil Maton (and his high-spin fastball) to grab the closer job over Kirby Yates and Ryan Buchter. BUY: Phil Maton; SELL: Brandon Maurer.

San Francisco Giants – The disappointing Giants are “open for business,” says GM Brian Sabean, but they aren’t interested in low-level prospects or dismantling their expensive roster. This could mean that their deals stay small, perhaps involving cheap, effective middle-inning guys like George Kontos or Cory Gearrin. Mark Melancon is stuck on the DL again and won’t move before the deadline, and we don’t yet see a contender desperate enough to go after Sam Dyson. BUY/SELL: None.

Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: American League

July 12, 2017

Special Update (Part 1 of 2 — check back tomorrow for the National League)

—–
Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR – AL relievers
BUY+: Tommy Kahnle.
BUY: Bruce Rondon, Mike Minor, Joakim Soria, Cam Bedrosian, David Hernandez, Blake Parker, Keone Kela, Matt Bush.
SELL: David Robertson, Justin Wilson, Bud Norris, Jose Leclerc, Alex Claudio.
SELL+: None.
—–

AL East

Baltimore Orioles — The Orioles are four games back in a wide-open Wild Card race and 3.5 games in front of the last-place team in the American League, which means the team is still unsure how it will proceed at the trade deadline. How does this affect the bullpen? Zach Britton is not likely to be moved, which means that Brad Brach and Darren O’Day aren’t going to assume the closer’s role in Baltimore. Either one of those setup men, however, is an intriguing trade target for a team in need of some bullpen depth. Brach was the team’s closer during Britton’s extended DL stint, but it’s unlikely he closes for a new team if he does get moved. BUY/SELL: None.

Boston Red Sox — The Red Sox own one of the best bullpens in the American League thanks in large part to All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel. Joe Kelly (1.49 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) has been the team’s next-best pitcher, but his hold on the 8th inning in Boston is not all that certain. The Sox are in the market for another reliever, with David Phelps and Pat Neshek being mentioned as potential targets. But Boston also has an in-house option in Carson Smith, who is set to throw from a mound this week. If he progresses well, the Sox may stand pat in the ‘pen. BUY/SELL: None.

New York Yankees — The Yankees will be buyers at the deadline, with Brad Hand highlighted as one of the potential targets. They have also scouted Pat Neshek. Despite recent struggles, Dellin Betances (15.00 ERA in July) should remain the handcuff to Aroldis Chapman, though the addition of a reliever like Hand will put some more pressure on Betances. BUY/SELL: None.

Tampa Bay Rays — Like the Yankees, the Rays could use another bullpen arm as they make a push for a playoff spot. Closer Alex Colome (3.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) has not been lights-out this year, but Kevin Cash doesn’t seem interested in making a switch to either Brad Boxberger or Tommy Hunter, and it’s unlikely the Rays will trade for someone with the intention of having him slot immediately into the closer’s role. BUY/SELL: None.

Toronto Blue Jays — The Blue Jays are in a similar predicament as the Orioles at the All-Star break. Toronto is five games back in the Wild Card race, but only 2.5 games from being last in the American League. It’s more than likely that the Jays will be sellers, but it’s less than likely that they trade 22-year-old closer Roberto Osuna. BUY/SELL: None.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox — The White Sox will almost certainly be sellers at the deadline and they have a number of bullpen arms who could be interesting to contending teams. Closer David Robertson tops the list and will likely be dealt before the trade deadline. He is an attractive option due to his postseason experience and ability to go more than one inning. The Nationals have been linked to Robertson since before the season, and that would likely be the best situation for fantasy owners since he would take over as the Nationals’ closer immediately. The Red Sox and Yankees have also been rumored to be interested in Robertson, but he would likely serve in a setup role to either Kimbrel or Chapman. We will list Robertson as a soft sell based on the possibility of ending up somewhere as a setup man. Tommy Kahnle should get a chance to close if Robertson is dealt, unless he also gets traded. BUY+: Tommy Kahnle; SELL: David Robertson.

Cleveland Indians — Cleveland’s bullpen got them to the World Series last year, and they won’t be making any moves that affect Andrew Miller or Cody Allen at the back end. BUY/SELL: None.

Detroit Tigers — The Tigers already cut their Opening Day closer in Francisco Rodriguez and it would not be surprising if their current closer is not around for much longer, although for much different reasons. Justin Wilson is having a great year, and teams are usually willing to overpay for bullpen help at the deadline. The Astros have been linked to Wilson for a while and the Dodgers also seem interested. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Wilson probably will not remain as a closer if he is dealt. Bruce Rondon could get another shot to close if Wilson is shipped somewhere else. BUY: Bruce Rondon; SELL: Justin Wilson.

Kansas City Royals — The Royals started the year out slow, but after a record of 17-9 in June, they put themselves back into contention. That might not matter in a couple weeks for Kelvin Herrera. Herrera hasn’t been as good this year (4.50 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.74 K/9) as the past couple years, but he is still a very good reliever and has a team-friendly contract. The Nationals are rumored to be interested in Herrera. Joakim Soria is a veteran arm who is having a good season (11.68 K/9, 11 holds) but his contract is a little richer, so he may stick around and close if Herrera is dealt. Mike Minor (1.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) is having a stellar season in the bullpen and could close if both Herrera and Soria are gone at the deadline. BUY: Joakim Soria, Mike Minor; SELL: Kelvin Herrera.

Minnesota Twins — Closer Brandon Kintzler was recently named an injury replacement for the All-Star team, and the Twins are surprisingly in second place in the AL Central. While Kintzler thought his manager was calling to tell him he was being traded, we don’t think he will be going anywhere. The Twins opted not to trade Kintzler last year when they were much further out of contention, and they will likely keep the All-Star around this season as well. BUY/SELL: None.

AL West

Houston Astros — The Astros, who sport a ridiculous 16.5-game lead in the AL West, are virtual locks for the postseason. They will definitely be buyers ahead of the deadline, but will they add another piece to their strong back-end? Some rumors have the Astros targeting starting pitching, but if that proves unsuccessful, they could aim to boost the bullpen depth. The Detroit Free Press says the Astros may be interested in Tigers closer Justin Wilson. For now, the Tigers have been asking for Houston’s top outfield prospect Derek Fisher, which could prove to be too steep a price. BUY/SELL: None.

Los Angeles Angels — The Angels are two games under .500 and way, way behind the Astros in the division, but they’re only three games behind New York and Tampa for a Wild Card berth. Mike Trout’s return could turn the Angels into buyers, or the team can falter and find themselves sellers. Either scenario puts the Angels in the conversation to trade for or deal away some relievers, and they have some intriguing options. Health has been the big issue with the back end of the ‘pen, as Huston Street is back on the DL again. Bud Norris (2.23 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) and Cam Bedrosian (1.69 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) have pitched well, but each pitcher has had their injury woes this season. Both players are healthy now and could probably be had at the deadline for a reasonable price, especially Norris. If either player is traded to a contender, it’s hard to imagine they’d be a closer with their new club. BUY: Cam Bedrosian, David Hernandez, Blake Parker; SELL: Bud Norris.

Oakland Athletics — The A’s are always active at the deadline, and as one of the worst teams in the American League, they will certainly be sellers. Oakland features a handful of relievers, like Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle and Santiago Casilla, who all could be intriguing to some contenders. One report suggests Doolittle (0.69 WHIP, 12.84 K/9) and Madson (2.17 ERA, 0.80 WHIP) are likely to be traded to contenders. Neither player would close for their new team, so keep that in mind when managing your own roster. Casilla, meanwhile, may stick around as he hasn’t been as impressive (3.82 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) as his bullpen mates, though a contender could look to acquire a veteran reliever like Casilla for cheap. If everyone is dealt, watch out for Liam Hendriks (5.40 ERA, though a 12.03 K/9), or… GULP… John Axford (6.30 ERA) to get a promotion. BUY/SELL: None.

Seattle Mariners — The M’s are four games under .500, but just four games back in the Wild Card race and figure to be buyers at the deadline, primarily because the team is sporting the highest payroll in team history (more than $150 million) and may want to deal for a player or two to put them over the hump. Edwin Diaz seems firmly entrenched in the closer’s role again, but Seattle could look outside the organization to boost the depth behind him. It’s not clear if the team has been connected to any specific reliever, so stay tuned to see if anyone will join Nick Vincent and old closer Steve Cishek behind Diaz in the bullpen. BUY/SELL: None.

Texas Rangers — The Rangers’ bullpen is in shambles and has blown a league-worst 17 save chances. Still, though, Texas is within striking distance of the Wild Card (three games back), and GM Jon Daniels said over the weekend he doesn’t envision his team selling. In fact, the team is likely to pursue relievers and/or controllable players via trade, according to a report. So, what should the Rangers do? Currently sporting a three-headed committee, Texas could be in the market for a marquee reliever, like Brad Hand. Meanwhile, if there’s no deal to be made, keep an eye on the currently injured Keone Kela, Matt Bush or the recently-returned Jeremy Jeffress staking their claim as the team’s primary stopper. BUY: Keone Kela, Matt Bush; SELL: Jose Leclerc, Alex Claudio.

Bud Norris, Hector Neris win their jobs back just before the break

July 10, 2017

Milwaukee Brewers – Jared Hughes picked up his second 7th inning hold in as many days on Sunday and has pitched his way on to the Milwaukee hierarchy. The former Pirate has a significantly better ERA and WHIP than Carlos Torres (2.92/1.19 vs 4.37/1.54), who may be wearing down after pitching in the 2nd most games of any reliever in the first half.

Updated hierarchy: Knebel | Barnes | Hughes.

Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies almost never win, which makes it a little harder to say this for certain, but it appears that Hector Neris has reclaimed the 9th inning. That’s where he pitched yesterday — following Pat Neshek and Joaquin Benoit, who got the 7th and 8th, respectively — and the young righty seems to have rediscovered his control and his splitter, posting relatively good numbers over his past six apperances (3.00 ERA, 8 Ks vs 1 BB). We’ll remove his asterisk as we head into the second half.

Updated hierarchy: Neris | Neshek | Benoit.

Los Angeles Angels – Bud Norris picked up his second save since returning from the DL on Sunday, tossing a perfect inning. Mike Scioscia seems to have every intention of using him as his exclusive closer after a few weeks of uncertainty, so we’ll remove his asterisk as well. Also, Cam Bedrosian got the 8th inning yesterday, the second straight time he’s pitched just ahead of Norris. He moves up to the primary set-up role.

Updated hierarchy: Norris | Bedrosian | Hernandez.

Oh taking control of Cardinals’ bullpen again

July 9, 2017

St. Louis Cardinals — Seung-Hwan Oh pitched a scoreless ninth to pick up his eighteenth save of the season.  After giving way to Trevor Rosenthal for a few save opportunities, Oh has received the last two save chances and converted both.  Rosenthal had his chance, but it looks like Oh has asserted himself as the closer again, so we will drop the committee asterisk.

Hierarchy remains: Oh | Rosenthal | Cecil.

New York Mets – Fernando Salas continued to struggle yesterday, as he gave up another run and pitched with the Mets losing.  It’s hard to imagine the Mets using Salas to protect any type of lead, but they don’t have a lot of other good options.  Paul Sewald has picked up a couple holds in July so we move him into Salas’ spot on the hierarchy.  Injured closer Jeurys Familia is expected to begin throwing during the All-Star break, but there is still no real time table for his return.

Updated hierarchy: Reed | Blevins | Sewald. 

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today
1. Pedro Baez – Kenley Jansen has pitched in two straight, and four of five.
2. Brad Hand – Brandon Maurer has pitched in two straight, and three of four.
3. Trevor Rosenthal – Seung-Hawn Oh has pitched in four of the past five games.
4. Brad Boxberger – Alex Colome has pitched in two of the past three, including a 30 pitch outing yesterday.

Monday – No Games

Jim Johnson adds a seventh blown save to his league-leading total

July 8, 2017

Atlanta Braves — Arodys Vizcaino’s injury came at a bad time for the Braves. In danger of completely falling out of contention, the team has no obvious backup plan to replace Jim Johnson and his league-leading seven blown saves, and it faces decreasing returns if it seeks to move the veteran before the trade deadline. Vizcaino owners are in the odd situation of having to root for Johnson to improve, at least over the short term.

Hierarchy remains: Johnson | Ramirez | Freeman.

Los Angeles Dodgers — 25-year-old Brock Stewart pitched a perfect seventh and eighth with a three-run lead to get the ball to Kenley Jansen. Stewart still projects as a #3 or #4 starter long-term, but he wouldn’t be the first one of those to wind up at the back end of the bullpen. Worth keeping an eye on.

Hierarchy remains: Jansen | Baez | Morrow.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. Brad Brach — Zach Britton threw 22 pitches in a non-save situation and has gone in two of three.
2. Jose Ramirez/Jason Motte — Jim Johnson has pitched in two straight, including a 30-pitch blown save on Friday. Ramirez has gone in two straight and Sam Freeman three, so Jason Motte could get a look.
3. Taylor Rogers/Tyler Duffey — Brandon Kintzler has appeared in four of five and five of seven, while Rogers has gone in two straight and three of four.
4. Pedro Baez — Kenley Jansen has pitched in three of four and Baez is well-rested.

Sunday:
1. C.J. Edwards — Wade Davis has gone in two of three.
2. Archie Bradley — Fernando Rodney has gone in two straight.