Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: National League

July 16, 2015

Special Update (Part 2 of 2 — click here for the American League)

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Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR – NL relievers
BUY+: Ken Giles.
BUY: Jeremy Jeffress, Daniel Hudson, Tommy Kahnle, LaTroy Hawkins, Arodys Vizcaino.
SELL: Francisco Rodriguez, Jim Johnson, Jonathan Papelbon, Brad Ziegler, John Axford.
SELL+: None.
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NL East

Atlanta Braves – The Braves are more likely to sell than buy at the deadline given their position in both the NL East and Wild Card standings, and with Jason Grilli now out for the season, closer Jim Johnson is now the only reliever that will be on the trade block for the Braves. If the Braves do ship Johnson, Arodys Vizcaino is likely to get the first crack at the closer’s role. BUY: Arodys Vizcaino, SELL: Jim Johnson.

Miami Marlins – AJ Ramos has lots of team control left, and at super-cheap entry level prices it is hard to imagine Miami moving him. The Marlins definitely won’t be buyers, since they are out of it now. BUY/SELL: None.

New York Mets – The Mets are just two games back of Washington in the division and a lone game back in the Wild Card race, so they probably would be buyers if their bullpen was a big need. It isn’t, however, since Jeurys Familia has been great, Bobby Parnell is a solid backup and Jenrry Mejia is back from suspension. BUY/SELL: None.

Philadelphia Phillies – Jonathan Papelbon is the obvious trade target in the league, since he’s been begging for a trade almost every day and is tired of waiting. He can block any trade, and he wants to go to a contender, so he’s not really a big sell candidate because he would probably be a closer wherever he went. The rumors are to the Cubs (probable closer), the Blue Jays (definite closer), the Rangers (probably would supplant Tolleson, as good as he’s been) and the Dodgers or Angels (maybe not over Jansen or Street). Ken Giles is the major beneficiary, and he has been really good this year. BUY+: Ken Giles, SELL: Jonathan Papelbon.

Washington Nationals – Drew Storen has been solid, but the rest of the bullpen has been less effective. The Nationals want to win this year, so it’s not out of the question that the Nats could go after a huge name to supplant Storen and knock him to the 8th inning, given them a really solid 1-2-3. However, it’s likely that Washington will go with Storen as its closer in the chase for the NL East title. BUY/SELL: None.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs definitely could be looking for bullpen help, specifically Jonathan Papelbon. Motte has been good since leading the committee, but they have been linked to Papelbon pretty heavily, and any good-to-great reliever would likely take over the 9th inning in Chicago. The Cubs are still playing for this year, so they could make moves, but they may be more concerned with starting pitching rather than the bullpen, where there are plenty of arms, including Rafael Soriano, who may join the roster after the All-Star break. BUY/SELL: None.

Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman is going to be expensive when his deal ends after this season, but Cincinnati doesn’t mind spending money despite calling themselves small market. The Reds likely won’t deal him, and if they did, he’d be the closer wherever he went. BUY/SELL: None.

Milwaukee Brewers – K-Rod is likely going to be on the move. He will probably close wherever he goes, but this opens the door for Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith. The problem is K-Rod’s backloaded contract, with a lot of money tied up for next year if anybody takes him. It takes two to make a trade, and with a year left on his deal, the Brewers may not have anywhere to move him. BUY: Jeremy Jeffress, SELL: Francisco Rodriguez.

Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates lead the NL Wild Card by 5.5 games and Mark Melancon put together an All-Star campaign in the first half of the season. BUY/SELL: None.

St. Louis Cardinals – Trevor Rosenthal has been great for the Cardinals, though he was scratched from the All-Star roster due to arm soreness.The NL Central leaders won’t be looking for any bullpen help during the stretch drive. BUY/SELL: None.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks – Brad Ziegler is entrenched as the closer, but he only has a one-year club option on his deal. This is about as attractive as a trade contract can get. Not a true rental, but if you want it to be it can be. If Arizona sells (and a poor start after the All-Star break could be the tipping point), they would probably deal Ziegler. Daniel Hudson would be the beneficiary, with Enrique Burgos also potentially getting some chances. BUY: Daniel Hudson, SELL: Brad Ziegler.

Colorado Rockies – The Rockies are 8.5 games back in the Wild Card, and John Axford is an attractive trade target thanks to his friendly contract. However, the Rockies may want to keep him for the final year of his deal, despite Axford being eligible for a raise through arbitration. If Axford is dealt, Tommy Kahnle and LaTroy Hawkins are the two choices for manager Walt Weiss. BUY: Tommy Kahnle and LaTroy Hawkins, SELL: John Axford.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Kenley Jansen is too good to be replaced and the Dodgers are too good to deal him. BUY/SELL: None.

San Diego Padres – The Padres aren’t ready to blow up their team yet, though Craig Kimbrel has been linked to the Yankees by ESPN’s Buster Olney. If the Yankees indeed want to add Kimbrel to their already deep bullpen, it won’t be cheap, as Kimbrel is signd through 2017 at lots of money. If the Padres deal set-up man Joaquin Benoit, he won’t close wherever he goes. BUY/SELL: None.

San Francisco Giants – The defending champions are just two games out of the final Wild Card spot and won’t be hunting for another closer to replace an up-and-down Santiago Casilla. BUY/SELL: None.

 

Rockies move to committee as John Axford tends to family

July 1, 2015

Colorado Rockies –John Axford was placed on the personal inactive list Tuesday night in order to take care of things at home, though thankfully it seems as if his son, who was bit by a rattlesnake earlier this year, is fine. By rule, Axford’s absence must last a minimum of three days, and the Rockies will go to a committee during that time. LaTroy Hawkins, Tommy Kahnle and Scott Oberg were mentioned by manager Walt Weiss as committee members, with Hawkins getting the first chance on Tuesday. The 42-year-old earned his second save of the season and his first since April 7. He has allowed just one earned run in nine appearances since returning to the Rockies’ roster and is the leading candidate for saves in Axford’s stead. Boone Logan was up in the ‘pen if a lefty got into the game for the A’s in the 9th, meaning Weiss is willing to play matchups as well.

Updated hierarchy: *Hawkins | Kahnle | Oberg.
* = closer-by-committee.

Chicago Cubs – Jason Motte picked up his second save in June, with Hector Rondon being used in the 7th and Pedro Strop taking the 8th ahead of Motte. Each of the last two save chances for the Cubs have gone to Motte, who has moved to the top of the their committee for the time being.

Updated hierarchy: *Motte | Rondon | Strop.
* = closer-by-committee

Texas Rangers – Tanner Scheppers pitched the 8th inning on Tuesday, facing the 2-3-4 hitters in the potent Orioles lineup and retiring the side in order. Keone Kela got the 7th ahead of Scheppers, which was the order of appearance the previous evening. Expect Scheppers to get more of the high-leverage work immediately ahead of Shawn Tolleson in the future.

Updated hierarchy: Tolleson | Scheppers | Kela.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Daniel Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks – Brad Ziegler has appeared in each of the last three games.
2. Junichi Tazawa, Boston Red Sox – Koji Uehara has pitched in three straight and four of the last five.
3. Hector Rondon/Pedro Strop, Chicago Cubs – Joe Maddon can go to any of his three late-inning options to get a save.
4. Tommy Kahnle/Scott Oberg, Colorado Rockies – Same goes for Walt Weiss, who may choose to rest 42-year-old LaTroy Hawkins.
5. Jeremy Jeffress, Milwaukee Brewers – K-Rod has gone in three straight games and so has Will Smith, who struggled a bit in the 8th on Tuesday before Jeffress bailed him out.
6. Trevor Gott/Fernando Salas, Los Angeles Angels – We’ll try this again. After both Joe Smith and Huston Street pitched in their fourth straight game on Tuesday, expect youngster Trevor Gott or one-time Cardinals closer Fernando Salas to get the call in the ninth if the Angels have a lead.

John Axford placed on personal inactive list

June 30, 2015

Colorado Rockies –John Axford was placed on the personal inactive list Tuesday night in order to take care of things at home, though thankfully it seems as if his son, who was bit by a rattlesnake earlier this year, is fine. The Rockies bullpen has been a mess, so there’s no obvious successor in Axford’s absence, which by rule must last a minimum of three days. That means Walt Weiss will either default to a veteran (LaTroy Hawkins or Rafael Betancourt) or someone who has been pitching pretty well over the past week or so (LaTroy Hawkins or Scott Oberg). With Hawkins the only player on both of those lists, he’s probably the best add if you only have room for one reliever. We’d rank them Oberg and Betancourt after that, with lefty Boone Logan also factoring in if they decide to employ a committee.

Updated hierarchy: *Hawkins | Oberg | Betancourt.
* = closer-by-committee.

Trevor Rosenthal ready to close again; Fernando Rodney on the ascent

June 19, 2015

Tampa Bay Rays — The committee chugs along in Tampa, where Brad Boxberger earned the save on Thursday night. Boxberger allowed a hit and struck out two in a complete ninth for the save, preceded by Jake McGee in a scoreless eighth, and Kevin Jepsen pitching around two hits and a walk in the seventh. We expect this committee to remain for the bulk of the season, with Boxberger still most likely to collect saves.

Hierarchy remains: *Boxberger | McGee | Jepsen.
* = closer-by-committee

Seattle Mariners — Carson Smith has converted all three save opportunities since taking over the closer’s role, but manager Lloyd McClendon is still worried about Smith’s durability, and said on Wednesday that old closer Fernando Rodney, or a combination of Rodney and others, would get the call when and if Smith is unavailable.

Updated hierarchy: *Smith | Rodney | Lowe.

Cleveland Indians — Bryan Shaw picked up his first save on Thursday night, but there’s nothing wrong with closer Cody Allen. During a long rain delay, manager Terry Francona had a lot of time to consider how to handle a bases-loaded threat in a tied fifth inning. Francona turned to Allen in the most pivotal moment of the game, and he got a fly out to end the danger, then followed with a 1-2-3 inning in the sixth. Zach McAllister then tossed 1.1 scoreless innings, leaving Shaw with the opportunity in the ninth. It’s safe to say this game featured some strange circumstances, and that Allen is still Francona’s man.

Hierarchy remains: Allen | McAllister | Shaw.

Colorado Rockies — Righty Brooks Brown was placed on the 15-day disabled list with shoulder inflammation, and Scott Oberg (5.55 ERA) had his second awful outing in three games, allowing three runs in an inning on Thursday night. So, who should slot in after John Axford in one of the worst bullpens in the major leagues? Mike Hampton? Pedro Astacio? Jose Jimenez? We’ll go with Boone Logan — who leads the team in holds (13) and averages 11.2 K/9 — and former closer LaTroy Hawkins, who tossed a scoreless inning with two strikeouts Thursday. It’s also worth keeping an eye on Tommy Kahnle, who has impressed since his major league callup on June 1.

Updated hierarchy: Axford | Logan | Hawkins.

St. Louis Cardinals — Trevor Rosenthal said after Wednesday night’s game that he feels he’s ready to return to closing, and on Thursday night, it appeared that was going to be the case. In a 1-0 game in the eighth inning, manager Mike Matheny sent Kevin Siegrist — who picked up a couple saves when Rosenthal was hurt — to the mound, while Rosenthal warmed up in the bullpen. Siegrist allowed the game-tying home run, though, so he earned the blown save and Rosenthal never got into the game. The Cardinals eventually lost when Kennys Vargas hacked a walkoff HR off Carlos Villanueva.

Hierarchy remains: Rosenthal | Siegrist | Maness.

Kansas City Royals — The last time we saw Greg Holland, he couldn’t record an out, and Wade Davis, the Robin to his Batman, was called on to convert the save. Holland returned with a vengeance Thursday night, earning the save while striking out two. Davis backed him up with a clean eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Tony Watson, Pittsburgh Pirates — Mark Melancon has earned saves on three straight nights, so he may be unavailable Friday.
2. Pedro Strop/Jason Motte, Chicago Cubs — Joe Maddon could turn to Strop, Motte, or Hector Rondon on any given night, depending on the matchup.
3. Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays — Brad Boxberger got the turn Thursday night, but keep an eye on Jake McGee, who also has three saves this year.

Bobby Parnell returns; Jonathan Papelbon trade rumors heat up

June 12, 2015

Tampa Bay Rays — It was a bad seventh inning for the Rays bullpen Thursday night. Up 2-1, manager Kevin Cash went with Kevin Jepsen, who allowed the tying run before getting yanked. Brad Boxberger came into the game with men on first and third with one out and the 1-2-3 hitters due up for the Angels — arguably the highest leverage spot in the game, which is how Kevin Cash has said he’d handle Boxberger’s use in the past. Boxberger allowed an RBI groundout and an RBI double, allowing two inherited runs to score before he was pulled. Jepsen and Boxberger each recorded only one out, and the Rays went on to lose 6-2. With Boxberger’s recent ineffectiveness (6.1 IP, 5 ER since May 26) and his use in non-save situations, we’re going to slap the closer-by-committee tag back on Tampa for the time being.

Updated hierarchy: *Boxberger | McGee | Jepsen.

Chicago Cubs — Speaking of committees, manager Joe Maddon has employed one lately. Thursday night it was Hector Rondon’s turn again, as the righty picked up his 11th save. Pedro Strop pitched the eighth inning and Jason Motte was seen warming up and was ready to go if Rondon faltered in any way. Also of note, Maddon said newly signed reliever Rafael Soriano won’t get called up until after the All-Star break.

Hierarchy remains: *Rondon | Strop | Motte.

New York Mets — 14 months removed from Tommy John surgery, Bobby Parnell is finally back in the big leagues, albeit with diminished velocity. Parnell had been rehabbing for 30 days in the minors and, as a player with five years of major league experience, he had the right to veto an extended stay there. The Mets apparently didn’t ask him to stay on the farm, where he was torched for an 11.57 ERA in 14 innings between A and AA — an outcome he claims was the result of focusing on perfecting individual pitches during his outings. He’ll have to prove he can recapture his old form before he gets many high-leverage looks for the big club.

Hierarchy remains: Familia | C.Torres | Robles.

New York Yankees — Everything’s Not Lost in the Yankees bullpen after all with the Thursday return of righty Chris Martin. Martin had been sent to Triple-A late last month after his DL return so he could get “back on a roll,” according to manager Joe Girardi. Martin has one save and a 3.55 ERA in 12.2 innings for the Yankees this season.

Updated hierarchy: Betances | Shreve | Martin.

Philadelphia Phillies — You may notice a few dozen pickups of setup man Ken Giles on your preferred fantasy platform. That’s because the Phillies are ramping up trade discussions involving closer Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon is due to make $8 million more this season, with a $13 million option for 2016 that will vest if he finishes 26 more games this year. The Phillies are reportedly calling contenders to let them know the team will eat some of Papelbon’s salary for this season and next in order to get a better return. The Blue Jays and Cubs reportedly have talked to the Phillies this month, with the Mariners, Rays, and Marlins possibly interested as well.

Hierarchy remains: Papelbon | Giles | Garcia.

Washington Nationals — Aaron Barrett had a tough outing and was saddled with the loss. Pitching in a tie game in the seventh inning, Barrett gave up a home run and threw a wild pitch before being pulled from the game during an at-bat with an apparent injury. After the game, manager Matt Williams said Barrett was “uncomfortable” on the mound and will need to be evaluated on Friday. We assume Barrett will be unavailable for at least the next game or two, so Blake Treinen moves into his role in the Nationals hierarchy. With Washington’s bullpen in disarray, the team also recently traded for Yankee washout David Carpenter.

Updated hierarchy: Storen | Janssen | Treinen.

Colorado Rockies — LaTroy Hawkins was activated from the disabled list and immediately pitched against the Marlins Thursday, allowing two hits and picking up a strikeout in a scoreless inning with the Rockies down six. Let’s see Hawkins get some work when the Rockies have the lead before we bring him back into the hierarchy.

Hierarchy remains: Axford | Oberg | Brown.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays — Brad Boxberger has pitched in two straight games and has had a rough time of it the last few weeks. Look for McGee to get the next save opportunity if Boxberger (a) needs rest or (b) enters in a high-leverage spot earlier in the game.
2. Pedro Strop/Jason Motte, Chicago Cubs — Hector Rondon got the save chance Thursday night, but Motte was warming in the 9th just in case. The closer situation is still kind of murky, so keep an eye on Motte and Strop.
3. Jonathan Broxton, Milwaukee Brewers — Francisco Rodriguez has pitched in four of the last six games for the Brewers, who are suddenly winning games. If K-Rod needs a break Friday, look for Jonathan Broxton to get the opportunity.