Koji Uehara activated; Chris Hatcher has another bad outing

April 13, 2015

Pittsburgh Pirates – After a ridiculous spring that included a 21:1(!) K:BB ratio, Arquimedes Caminero has brought his 101-mph fastball to the 7th inning in Pittsburgh. On Sunday, he picked up his 2nd hold of the season, and he’s now totaled 2.2 scoreless to start the year.

Updated hierarchy: Melancon | Watson | Caminero.

Chicago White Sox – Zach Duke picked up his second straight 8th inning hold on Sunday. The White Sox have been wise to make good on their offseason investment (3 years, $15M), as Duke has been one of the only reliable arms in the Chicago bullpen thus far. Would-be set-up man Zach Putnam has struggled out of the gate (4 ERs in 2 innings) after struggling during the spring (9.35 ERA) and might be looking at a trip to the minors if he can’t sort things out soon.

Updated hierarchy: Robertson | Duke | Guerra.

Tampa Bay Rays – Ernesto Frieri cleaned up an 8th inning mess and then stayed on for the 9th after the Rays tacked on a run. Frieri allowed a run himself, but picked up a vulture save.

Hierarchy remains: Boxberger | Jepsen | Balfour.

Colorado Rockies – John Axford has left the Rockies for a while to be with his son, who just had surgery following a rattlesnake attack. His absence may be poorly timed for Axford owners, as LaTroy Hawkins just blew his second save in a row and remains firmly on the Hot Seat. With Axford away, Adam Ottavino and Boone Logan are the relievers who could benefit if the Rockies are looking to give Hawkins a break.

Hierarchy remains: Hawkins | Ottavino | Logan.

Seattle Mariners – Fernando Rodney had an atrocious outing on Sunday afternoon, allowing the A’s to score four runs in the bottom of the 9th inning — Yoervis Medina would eventually pick up the save in extras. Rodney also had a shaky spring, with 7 walks in 8.1 IPs, and with his control problems spilling over into the regular season, those in deeper leagues might look to stash either Medina or Danny Farquhar should Rodney end up on the Hot Seat. (He’s already pretty close.)

Hierarchy remains: Rodney | Farquhar | Medina.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Chris Hatcher had another brutal outing on Sunday, allowing 3 runs to score while only recording one out. Joel Peralta came in afterwards to lock down the 1-out save, and is now firmly in the lead in the Los Angeles committee; in fact, the way things have gone thus far, it would surprise us to see anyone other than Peralta used in the 9th going forward. We’ll hold off on lifting the asterisk for one more save, but frankly, Hatcher might not even stay in the bigs for very much longer if he keeps pitching the way he has (33.75 ERA) over the season’s first week.

Updated hierarchy: *Peralta | Hatcher | Howell.
*closer-by-committee

Boston Red Sox – Koji Uehara will come off the disabled list today and will resume closing immediately.

Updated hierarchy: Uehara | Mujica | Ogando.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Joba Chamberlain, Detroit Tigers – Joakim Soria has pitched in three straight.
2. Roman Mendez, Texas Rangers – Neftali Feliz and Shawn Tolleson have both pitched in three straight.
3. Eric O’Flaherty, Oakland A’s – Tyler Clippard has pitched in two straight and three of four, throwing 57 pitches in the process.
4. Jumbo Diaz, Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman has pitched in four of the last five games.

Weekly Hot Seat Update: April 10, 2015

April 10, 2015

After elbow injuries to Joe Nathan and Jenrry Mejia and the recent demotion of Brett Cecil, three of the shakiest closers in the game have already been replaced. Who starts the season on the hot seat? And who stands to benefit if they falter?

5. Miguel Castro
Koji Uehara‘s impending return means that we didn’t even consider Edward Mujica for this spot. Instead it goes to the putative head of the brand-new Toronto closer committee: 20-year-old future starter Castro, whose right elbow (and its single tendon) was expected to start the season at Class A Dunedin. Castro’s rapid rise makes for a great story, but if he falters, it’ll be simple for the Jays to try out fellow youngster Roberto Osuna or return to Cecil.

4. LaTroy Hawkins
The 42-year-old already has his first blown save of the season, and PECOTA predicts that he’ll give up almost as many runs this year (36) as he earns strikeouts (43). Not exactly a recipe to lower a manager’s blood pressure. Walt Weiss can turn to Adam Ottavino, John Axford, or (when he gets back to the majors) perpetual “closer of the future” Rex Brothers.

3. Jason Grilli
Stepping into Craig Kimbrel’s golden cleats is the 38-year-old Grilli, who has an extensive history of injuries, and an apparently revitalized Jim Johnson lurking behind him. The Braves will give him the first shot at the job, but they’ll move on in a hurry if he performs like he did last season in Pittsburgh.

2. Dellin Betances
Betances, one of the breakout stars of 2014, struggled all through spring training, and hasn’t been much better now that the games count. Although the righty seems to have regained his missing velocity, control problems continue to plague him. He’s already in a platoon situation with lefty Andrew Miller, who’s a real threat to take the job and make it his own.

1. Chris Hatcher
Converted catcher Hatcher got the Dodgers’ first save of the year, but he might not be in line for too many more after getting blasted in a tied ninth inning on Tuesday. Joel Peralta, Hatcher’s main competition for the job in Kenley Jansen‘s absence, may have had a rough 2014, but he’s posted a consistently above-average WHIP and K rate over the last five years — and his first two outings so far this year have been scoreless, earning him a win and a save.

Joel Peralta nudges his way to the front in Los Angeles

March 26, 2015

Los Angeles Dodgers — Chris Hatcher and his Wilsonesque beard have endured some rough outings lately, pushing his spring ERA over 10. Although Hatcher is a virtual lock to make the team because he’s out of minor league options, Joel Peralta may have edged in front of him in the race to lead what appears to be a confirmed committee situation that could also include Sergio Santos, Juan Nicasio, and lefties J.P. Howell and Paco Rodriguez. As expected, Brandon League will join Kenley Jansen on the DL to start the season, and some in LA are looking Rafael Soriano’s way.

Updated hierarchy: Peralta* | Hatcher | Santos.
*closer-by-committee

Oakland A’s — A struggling Ryan Cook was sent to the minors on Tuesday to fix his mechanics. Eric O’Flaherty and Dan Otero will back up Tyler Clippard during Sean Doolittle’s absence, and young R.J. Alvarez is another intriguing option. Doolittle, meanwhile, is staying busy teaching his coaches about social media.

Updated hierarchy: Clippard | O’Flaherty | Otero.

Boston Red Sox — Koji Uehara, who turns 40 next week, might miss Opening Day with a hamstring strain. Edward Mujica would likely take the closer’s role until Uehara can get healthy, with Alexi Ogando moving ahead of Junichi Tazawa as a backup option.

Updated hierarchy: Uehara | Mujica | Ogando.

Tampa Bay Rays — Grant Balfour made his first appearance of the spring on Monday and expects to be ready for Opening Day. All three of Tampa’s current top relievers allowed a run in the game. Jake McGee is throwing curveballs again and should be back to closing in late April or early May.

Hierarchy remains: Balfour | Boxberger | Jepsen.

Toronto Blue Jays — As expected, Brett Cecil was officially named Toronto’s closer; Aaron Loup will set him up, with Steve Delabar and Miguel Castro behind them.

Hierarchy remains: Cecil | Loup | Delabar.

Colorado Rockies — Walt Weiss told reporters that Adam Ottavino will be the club’s top vulture save option when 42-year-old closer LaTroy Hawkins is fatigued, or watching Matlock reruns.

Updated hierarchy: Hawkins | Ottavino | Axford.

Cincinnati Reds — The eighth inning is wide open for the Reds, according to manager Bryan Price, who named no fewer than five possibilities for set-up work. We’ll leave things the way they are until the situation clears up, but one intriguing option Price didn’t mention is lefty Tony Cingrani, who may find a welcoming home in the bullpen.

Hierarchy remains: Chapman | Diaz | LeCure.

2015 Tiered Closer Rankings

The Closer Monkey contributors pooled our collective personal closer rankings together and averaged the results; below is our composite list, sorted into tiers for your drafting convenience. Enjoy!

Tier 1 – The Elite
1. Aroldis Chapman
2. Craig Kimbrel
3. Greg Holland

Analysis: Not a lot needs to be said about this trio, but we’ll gush about them a bit anyway. They’re dominant, they have high strikeout rates, and they have proven track records of success.

The “maybe we should move him to the rotation” discussion that normally follows Chapman around all spring has finally dissipated this year, and he’s ready to follow up on what many considered his best season. Kimbrel continues to do his thing (look otherworldly), while Holland is coming off a year where he actually earned a few MVP votes.

Depending on your league size, an early round pick on one of these guys might mean you can ignore closers until the very last few rounds, where you can speculate on Tier 6 guys or middle relievers and still have a solid composite bullpen.

Tier 2 – The Very Good
4. David Robertson
5. Mark Melancon
6. Dellin Betances
7. Cody Allen

Analysis: The main player to watch here is Betances, who just had one of the best seasons any reliever has ever had. His ridiculous numbers would have been enough to push him into the Elite tier, except for the fact that he hasn’t won the job yet. We think he will, though, so we’ve included him in our second tier alongside three guys who we universally like.

Robertson has yet to fully recapture his magical 2011 season, but he’ll be great on the South Side, and could log 40 saves and 100 strikeouts. Thanks to his great control, Melancon has put up 2 straight years with a sub-2 ERA and figures to get lots of chances on a solid Pirates team. And Allen emerged last year as one of the top young stoppers in baseball whose best years are ahead of him.

Tier 3 – The Reliable
8. Trevor Rosenthal
9. Koji Uehara
10. Huston Street
11. Drew Storen
12. Zach Britton
13. Kenley Jansen

Analysis: This tier contains our two favorite veterans (Uehara and Street) mixed in with some promising youngsters.

Rosenthal had some bumpy moments and an unsightly WHIP last year, but did more than enough (45 saves, 11.1 K/9) to be included here. Storen’s deceptive delivery and good control led him to a 1.12 ERA last season. And Zach Britton’s nasty sinker suggests that he’ll still be able to get outs even if he’s not striking out the world.

Finally, this tier was a good spot for Kenley Jansen, an absolutely dominant stopper on a Dodgers team that’s going to win a lot of games. But Jansen, of course, is likely to miss the first month of the season, and might need some time to get up to speed.

Tier 4 – Safe-ish
14. Steve Cishek
15. Glen Perkins
16. Hector Rondon
17. Fernando Rodney
18. Sean Doolittle
19. Jonathan Papelbon

Analysis: Save for Cishek, who is really a Tier 3/Tier 4 tweener, there are minor concerns with every player listed here, from staying healthy (Perkins, Doolittle); to inexperience (Rondon); to past volatility (Rodney); to the fact that literally no one likes you including your own fan base (Papelbon).

But it seems likely that at least four of these six players will be perfectly fine and will hold their jobs for much or all of the season. If you’re going with a cheap saves approach — minimal draft investment combined with waiver wire dominance — you might want to think about snagging someone from this tier to keep you afloat until you can accumulate enough players through free agency.

Tier 5 – Hold on for the ride
20. Santiago Casilla
21. Joaquin Benoit
22. Jake McGee
23. Francisco Rodriguez
24. Addison Reed

Analysis: We’ve now reached the point where every remaining player has a moderate-to-major concern. It’s also where we’ll kick up our analysis a bit, since these players are always the most interesting.

Casilla is okay, but he’s far from dominant and will probably be on a short leash, since Sergio Romo has ample experience in the closer role. Benoit still hasn’t pitched in a spring training game, and can’t go three days in a row even when perfectly healthy. Jake McGee is great, but he’s coming off elbow surgery and is targeting a late April return. Even if he gets up to speed quickly, Brad Boxberger or Grant Balfour could be locked in to the role by then.

Francisco Rodriguez started hot last year, but tailed off significantly down the stretch and still hasn’t reported to camp. Finally, Addison Reed is just kinda bad, plus he’s dealing with shoulder soreness. Pick your poison here, as there are probably only two 30+ save guys in this fivesome.

Tier 6 – Yikes
25. Neftali Feliz
26. Joe Nathan
27. Luke Gregerson
28. Jenrry Mejia
29. Brett Cecil
30. LaTroy Hawkins

Analysis: This tier is where fantasy seasons are sometimes made, as there’s always a closer or two at the bottom of everyone’s list who goes on to defy expectations and have a great year. Obviously, it’s just hard to figure out who that player is.

Our bottom six starts with Neftali Feliz, whose velocity vanished last season. Though he’s put in a lot of work in the offseason, he also talked about not needing — or seemingly even wanting — to raise his strikeout rate. Yikes.

Joe Nathan is 40 years old, and had a 4.81 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 2014. Yikes.

Luke Gregerson was solid last year, but his numbers were a bit inflated by a lucky BABIP. Additionally, he plays for the terrible Astros and hasn’t even won the job yet. Yikes.

Jenrry Mejia also doesn’t have the gig for sure yet; in fact, Terry Collins has said that he needs to be “lights out” to prevent Bobby Parnell from taking over upon his return. Yikes.

Brett Cecil is the presumed frontrunner in Toronto, but megaprospect Aaron Sanchez is breathing down his neck and the Jays are clearly unsettled about their closer situation, having kicked the tires on Jonathan Papelbon. Yikes.

And finally, though we adore LaTroy Hawkins as a human being, nobody at Closer Monkey thinks he can pull off last year’s magic trick, where he saved 23 games and had a 3.31 ERA, despite the fact that he only struck out 5.3 hitters per 9 innings, and played half his games in Coors Field. Yeah. Yikes.

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2015 NL West preview

March 8, 2015

Arizona Diamondbacks – It’s safe to say that the closer spot was not a pillar of strength for 64-98, last-place Arizona Diamondbacks last season. The young and talented Addison Reed got worse in his switch from the American League to the National League, netting 32 saves but finishing an up-and-down season with a 4.25 ERA, and he’s recently come down with a bout of shoulder soreness that will keep him from throwing until mid-March. At this point, he looks fine to start the season, though righties Brad Ziegler and Evan Marshall or lefty Oliver Perez could step in if necessary. Holds seekers can also keep an eye on David Hernandez, who should be ready by May 1 after missing all of last year due to Tommy John surgery.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Reed | Ziegler | Perez.
Holds candidates: Ziegler, Perez.

Colorado Rockies – Yes, the Rockies still employ a closer that began his major league career (1995!) before some of our faithful Closer Monkey readers were born! I’m looking at YOU, LaTroy Hawkins. At 42, Hawkins will be the oldest active player in the big leagues this year, which will be his 21st and final season in Major League Baseball. Don’t let his age fool you. Hawkins had a solid year in Denver last season, collecting 23 saves and a 3.31 ERA. Still, keep an eye on the other late-inning relievers, including heir apparent John Axford, and last year’s up-and-down set-up duo, Adam Ottavino and Rex Brothers.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Hawkins | Axford | Ottavino.
Holds candidates: Axford, Ottavino.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Andrew Friedman took his big-thinking mindset away from the small-market Tampa area and to sunny southern California, and when he arrived, he took a wrecking ball to a Dodgers team that won two straight division titles. Most important to the Closer Monkey is the injury to the electric Kenley Jansen, who will miss the first month of the season, with no clear replacement behind him. Brian Wilson is gone, leaving two recent acquisitions — Joel Peralta and Dustin McGowan — to duke it out with Brandon League for save chances. We think it’ll either be Peralta or League to start the season, with McGowan getting a look if they both struggle in the spring.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: | Peralta | League | McGowan.
Holds candidates: League, JP Howell.

San Diego Padres – Another NL West team in transition was the San Diego Padres, who added Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and James Shields in a busy offseason. A much stronger lineup should present the team with more hold and save opportunities — assuming they actually have more leads — so consider a mid-round investment in closer Joaquin Benoit, who was excellent last year in his first season in the National League (1.41 ERA, 11 saves). Holds-chasers should take a look at Kevin Quackenbush, who could also inherit the closer role if Benoit struggles. The Padres also added Shawn Kelley from the Yankees and Brandon Maurer, a former starter with a big arm, from the Mariners.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Benoit | Quackenbush | Vincent.
Holds candidates: Quackenbush, Vincent.

San Francisco Giants – The defending World Series champions got a scare during the early going of spring training after closer Santiago Casilla was hit in the left shin by a batted ball. Reports indicate Casilla should be OK, but he will need to shake off a bruised shin and should be good to go on Opening Day. Behind Casilla is setup man Sergio Romo, who is dealing with shoulder soreness, of course. Manager Bruce Bochy says Romo should be fine. Romo, when healthy, and Jeremy Affeldt will be the most likely bullpen arms to pick up holds.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Casilla | Romo | Affeldt.
Holds candidates: Romo, Affeldt.

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