July 16, 2015
Special Update (Part 2 of 2 — click here for the American League)
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Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
TL;DR – NL relievers
BUY+: Ken Giles.
BUY: Jeremy Jeffress, Daniel Hudson, Tommy Kahnle, LaTroy Hawkins, Arodys Vizcaino.
SELL: Francisco Rodriguez, Jim Johnson, Jonathan Papelbon, Brad Ziegler, John Axford.
SELL+: None.
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NL East
Atlanta Braves – The Braves are more likely to sell than buy at the deadline given their position in both the NL East and Wild Card standings, and with Jason Grilli now out for the season, closer Jim Johnson is now the only reliever that will be on the trade block for the Braves. If the Braves do ship Johnson, Arodys Vizcaino is likely to get the first crack at the closer’s role. BUY: Arodys Vizcaino, SELL: Jim Johnson.
Miami Marlins – AJ Ramos has lots of team control left, and at super-cheap entry level prices it is hard to imagine Miami moving him. The Marlins definitely won’t be buyers, since they are out of it now. BUY/SELL: None.
New York Mets – The Mets are just two games back of Washington in the division and a lone game back in the Wild Card race, so they probably would be buyers if their bullpen was a big need. It isn’t, however, since Jeurys Familia has been great, Bobby Parnell is a solid backup and Jenrry Mejia is back from suspension. BUY/SELL: None.
Philadelphia Phillies – Jonathan Papelbon is the obvious trade target in the league, since he’s been begging for a trade almost every day and is tired of waiting. He can block any trade, and he wants to go to a contender, so he’s not really a big sell candidate because he would probably be a closer wherever he went. The rumors are to the Cubs (probable closer), the Blue Jays (definite closer), the Rangers (probably would supplant Tolleson, as good as he’s been) and the Dodgers or Angels (maybe not over Jansen or Street). Ken Giles is the major beneficiary, and he has been really good this year. BUY+: Ken Giles, SELL: Jonathan Papelbon.
Washington Nationals – Drew Storen has been solid, but the rest of the bullpen has been less effective. The Nationals want to win this year, so it’s not out of the question that the Nats could go after a huge name to supplant Storen and knock him to the 8th inning, given them a really solid 1-2-3. However, it’s likely that Washington will go with Storen as its closer in the chase for the NL East title. BUY/SELL: None.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs – The Cubs definitely could be looking for bullpen help, specifically Jonathan Papelbon. Motte has been good since leading the committee, but they have been linked to Papelbon pretty heavily, and any good-to-great reliever would likely take over the 9th inning in Chicago. The Cubs are still playing for this year, so they could make moves, but they may be more concerned with starting pitching rather than the bullpen, where there are plenty of arms, including Rafael Soriano, who may join the roster after the All-Star break. BUY/SELL: None.
Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman is going to be expensive when his deal ends after this season, but Cincinnati doesn’t mind spending money despite calling themselves small market. The Reds likely won’t deal him, and if they did, he’d be the closer wherever he went. BUY/SELL: None.
Milwaukee Brewers – K-Rod is likely going to be on the move. He will probably close wherever he goes, but this opens the door for Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith. The problem is K-Rod’s backloaded contract, with a lot of money tied up for next year if anybody takes him. It takes two to make a trade, and with a year left on his deal, the Brewers may not have anywhere to move him. BUY: Jeremy Jeffress, SELL: Francisco Rodriguez.
Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates lead the NL Wild Card by 5.5 games and Mark Melancon put together an All-Star campaign in the first half of the season. BUY/SELL: None.
St. Louis Cardinals – Trevor Rosenthal has been great for the Cardinals, though he was scratched from the All-Star roster due to arm soreness.The NL Central leaders won’t be looking for any bullpen help during the stretch drive. BUY/SELL: None.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks – Brad Ziegler is entrenched as the closer, but he only has a one-year club option on his deal. This is about as attractive as a trade contract can get. Not a true rental, but if you want it to be it can be. If Arizona sells (and a poor start after the All-Star break could be the tipping point), they would probably deal Ziegler. Daniel Hudson would be the beneficiary, with Enrique Burgos also potentially getting some chances. BUY: Daniel Hudson, SELL: Brad Ziegler.
Colorado Rockies – The Rockies are 8.5 games back in the Wild Card, and John Axford is an attractive trade target thanks to his friendly contract. However, the Rockies may want to keep him for the final year of his deal, despite Axford being eligible for a raise through arbitration. If Axford is dealt, Tommy Kahnle and LaTroy Hawkins are the two choices for manager Walt Weiss. BUY: Tommy Kahnle and LaTroy Hawkins, SELL: John Axford.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Kenley Jansen is too good to be replaced and the Dodgers are too good to deal him. BUY/SELL: None.
San Diego Padres – The Padres aren’t ready to blow up their team yet, though Craig Kimbrel has been linked to the Yankees by ESPN’s Buster Olney. If the Yankees indeed want to add Kimbrel to their already deep bullpen, it won’t be cheap, as Kimbrel is signd through 2017 at lots of money. If the Padres deal set-up man Joaquin Benoit, he won’t close wherever he goes. BUY/SELL: None.
San Francisco Giants – The defending champions are just two games out of the final Wild Card spot and won’t be hunting for another closer to replace an up-and-down Santiago Casilla. BUY/SELL: None.
