Special Update (Part 1 of 2 — check back tomorrow for the National League)
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Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
TL;DR – AL relievers
BUY+: None.
BUY: Junichi Tazawa, Jake McGee, Bruce Rondon, Carson Smith, Edward Mujica, Drew Pomeranz.
SELL: Koji Uehara, Brad Boxberger, Joakim Soria, Fernando Rodney, Roberto Osuna.
SELL+: Tyler Clippard.
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AL East
Baltimore Orioles – Baltimore’s pen is as strong as any in the league right now with the 1-2 punch of Zach Britton and Darren O’Day. They are contending, so they’re unlikely to sell, and Britton has been lights out, so they’re probably not buying relief help either. They’ll likely stand pat on everything. BUY/SELL: None.
Boston Red Sox – The Red Sox are still in it, but they are currently in last place, 6.5 games back. If things take a turn for the worse, Koji Uehara could be on the move. He only has the rest of this year and next year left, but at $9 million per season, it would be tough for someone to take him on and not use him as a closer. Any closer that could move, though, becomes a light sell target for these purposes. Uehara is the man as long as he stays, but if Boston starts selling, he’s one of a few guys they could legitimately find buyers for. Let’s give a light buy for Tazawa for the same reasons, as he still has arbitration years left, so he’s unlikely to be traded away. BUY: Junichi Tazawa, SELL: Koji Uehara.
New York Yankees – The Yankees are currently in first, and most of their bullpen concern is from possible injuries and not trades. Miller has a trade-friendly contract (4 years, $36 million), but with the Yankees contending, they won’t be sellers. They could add bullpen depth due to uncertainty behind Miller and Dellin Betances, but those are the only guys who will get consistent save opportunities. BUY/SELL: None.
Tampa Bay Rays – Tampa Bay is home to one of the league’s most unsettled bullpens. The Rays are still contending in the AL East, but they are playing worse than their record would indicate (they have a -9 run differential). If they play poorly over the next two weeks, they could sell quickly, but if so, it’s actually unlikely that they would want to move Brad Boxberger or Jake McGee, based on their team-friendly contracts. They are both relatively young and still have a couple years of team control. (Kevin Jepsen is more likely to get traded away.) We’ll place a light sell tag on Boxberger, and light buy on McGee, because McGee has been absolutely dominant since coming back (he has only given up runs once in 19 appearances) and Boxberger has struggled a bit lately, taking 2 straight losses earlier this month. Long term, McGee could become the closer, but neither player will be traded. BUY: Jake McGee, SELL: Brad Boxberger.
Toronto Blue Jays – It’s a pretty messy situation in Toronto’s bullpen. As a result, they have been linked to several closers who could become available via trade, including Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez and maybe Glen Perkins or Koji Uehara. Either way, we’re going to place the sell tag on 20-year-old Roberto Osuna, who would likely get immediately replaced as closer if Toronto trades for one. Osuna could be traded himself, too. SELL: Roberto Osuna.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox – The White Sox are all but out of it, so they likely will be selling. Rotation pieces are the ones more likely to go than the bullpen, but good relievers on bad teams are always potential targets. David Robertson just signed a 4-year deal, though, so it would be hard to imagine them throwing that out unless a huge prospect comes back. BUY/SELL: None.
Cleveland Indians – The Indians could be sellers at 11 games back in the AL Central, but they probably wouldn’t be trading Cody Allen. If they buy, they might look to add a late inning reliever, but we don’t see Allen being displaced. BUY/SELL: None.
Detroit Tigers – At the All-Star Break, the Tigers are 9 games out in the AL Central, but still are in striking distance for one of the two Wild Card spots. If the Tigers are going to be in contention at the trade deadline, they’re going to have to surge without Miguel Cabrera, who is out the next several weeks with a calf strain. If the Tigers are still way out of it come July 31, they could consider trading Joakim Soria, a proven commodity whose contract expires at the end of the year. No one else in this bullpen stands out, so we’ll go with Bruce Rondon as the most likely man to close if Soria is moved. BUY: Bruce Rondon, SELL: Joakim Soria.
Kansas City Royals – The Royals have the best bullpen in the league, and probably wouldn’t want to break it up. They may deal one of their surplus guys to get help elsewhere, but there’s no way those deals would involve Greg Holland or Wade Davis. Nobody they would trade for would become a closer immediately in KC. BUY/SELL: None.
Minnesota Twins – With the Twins in second place, they probably won’t be sellers, and Perkins has one of the friendliest deals for a top-level closer (he makes $6 million next year and in 2017, with a club option for 2018). It’s unlikely they would replace him, but they could be buyers of bullpen help behind him. BUY/SELL: None.
AL West
Houston Astros – The first-place Astros will likely be buyers at this point, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be trading for a replacement for Luke Gregerson. Still, Houston’s GM, when he’s not getting hacked, is actively looking for a “flame-throwing bullpen arm.” We’ll put a light sell on Gregerson as he might get supplanted if Houston decides to make a big move for someone like Aroldis Chapman. SELL: Luke Gregerson.
Los Angeles Angels – Angels closer Huston Street is currently battling a groin injury, but recently said he’s improving. He’s going to play catch on Sunday as part of the rehab process, and could be back sometime soon. He’s the man for the Angels, and it would be surprising if the team traded for closer help as Joe Smith is a pretty capable — albeit temporary — replacement. BUY/SELL: None.
Oakland Athletics – Tyler Clippard is the least likely player to still be closing at this time next month. A free agent next year for the notoriously stingy A’s, Clippard is effective, but not dominant, and has already been featured in trade rumors. He’s a typical guy the A’s would move if they were going to sell, which, with Oakland 10 games out, seems like a real possibility. If they make a move, that could lead to a closer-by-committee between veteran Edward Mujica and former starter Drew Pomeranz, the latter of whom hasn’t given up a run since June 19. BUY: Edward Mujica, Drew Pomeranz, SELL+: Tyler Clippard.
Seattle Mariners – The M’s are 9 games out at this point, so they may be looking to sell at the deadline. Look for Seattle to do whatever they can to trade closer Fernando Rodney, who is a free agent at the end of the year and has been quite shaky for most of the year. Rodney’s exit could clear the way for Carson Smith to take over the full-time job, if he hasn’t done so already. BUY: Carson Smith, SELL: Fernando Rodney.
Texas Rangers – The Rangers were shopping for bullpen help when they took Neftali Feliz out of the closer role, and have been linked to Jonathan Papelbon, but they stumbled upon Shawn Tolleson, who has locked the gig up. It’s possible the Rangers would want to get a more established guy, but Tolleson has been excellent, and has only blown one save all season. BUY/SELL: None.
