Trade Deadline Buy/Sell Report: American League Closers

July 17, 2013

SPECIAL UPDATE: TRADE DEADLINE BUY/SELL REPORT (PART ONE OF TWO)

Glossary
BUY+: This player has a large chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR Version
BUY+: Jose Cisnero
BUY: Matt Lindstrom; Glen Perkins; Jared Burton; Ryan Cook; Yoervis Medina
SELL: Koji Uehara; Addison Reed; Grant Balfour
SELL+: Joaquin Benoit; Jose Veras; Oliver Perez

Baltimore Orioles — In the thick of an extremely competitive AL East race, the O’s are likely to stay with their current approach in the bullpen: Darren O’Day and Tommy Hunter pitching effectively in front of an inconsistent Jim Johnson. BUY/SELL: None.
Boston Red Sox — Boston might not be satisfied with adding Matt Thornton; there’s still a chance that they acquire Bobby Parnell, Jonathan Papelbon, Addison Reed, or Francisco Rodriguez, any of whom would significantly erode Koji Uehara’s fantasy value. SELL: Koji Uehara.
New York Yankees — With all the injuries stalking the Bronx this season (including a 97 MPH All-Star Game fastball to Robinson Cano’s quadriceps), the late innings are the least of Joe Girardi’s concerns. Although New York could always add a setup arm, there’s not a pitcher in the world who could derail Mariano Rivera’s farewell tour. BUY/SELL: None.
Tampa Bay Rays
Fernando Rodney isn’t the most reliable closer in the league, but the Rays are still likely to stand pat at this year’s trade deadline. BUY/SELL: None.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays’ bullpen has been the team’s biggest strength this disappointing season, and although they might move a pitcher if they get the right offer, any trade is unlikely to affect the save picture. BUY/SELL: None. 

Chicago White Sox — With the White Sox languishing in the AL Central basement, Addison Reed could be traded if another team makes a great offer. If Reed does move, he’ll either take on a setup role (drastically decreasing his value) or close for a better team (mildly increasing it). On balance, we think the rest of this season will see a slight regression in Reed’s worth to you. Meanwhile, if Reed is traded, Matt Lindstrom will probably be the White Sox pitcher who benefits most. Jesse Crain could be in the mix also, once he returns from his injury, but (as noted in the link above) he’s even more likely to be flipped this month. BUY: Matt Lindstrom. SELL: Addison Reed.
Cleveland Indians — The Indians need to add a lefty arm and perhaps replace Vinnie Pestano, but Chris Perez and Cody Allen are pretty secure. BUY/SELL: None.
Detroit Tigers — Detroit is likely to trade for one or two relief pitchers; although it’s not yet clear whether they will replace Joaquin Benoit with a “proven closer” or simply reload with middle relief reinforcements, we think Benoit’s days as the closer in Comerica are numbered. SELL+: Joaquin Benoit.
Kansas City Royals — Although there’s a strong case that Kansas City should flip Greg Holland now, at the height of his value, the three years of team control remaining suggest that he’ll remain a Royal for a while. BUY/SELL: None.
Minnesota Twins — Glen Perkins is too good a closer to stay on this bad Minnesota team; if he’s traded, he’ll almost certainly be closing for a contender, while Ron Gardenhire goes to Jared (Burton) and dreams of someday getting a ring. BUY: Glen Perkins, Jared Burton.

Houston Astros — With Houston as bad as expected, Jose Veras is extremely likely to be traded this July — but he’ll probably move into a setup role wherever he ends up. Jose Cisnero is expected to succeed Veras, if necessary. BUY+: Jose Cisnero. SELL+: Jose Veras.
Los Angeles Angels
— It’s been a disappointing year for the Angels and it’s unlikely that any exciting bullpen trade news will spark a second-half renaissance. BUY/SELL: None.
Oakland A’s — Oakland might add another arm in middle relief; they were chasing Matt Thornton before the Red Sox sealed that deal. With Grant Balfour facing free agency, though, don’t put it past Billy Beane to deal his All-Star closer, even with the A’s atop their division. BUY: Ryan Cook. SELL: Grant Balfour.
Seattle Mariners — Oliver Perez and Charlie Furbush are both attractive trade bait; Perez’s save chances are likely to drop off dramatically if (and when) he’s moved. Yoervis Medina could benefit as a result. BUY: Yoervis Medina. SELL+: Oliver Perez.
Texas Rangers — The Rangers are very happy with their deep bullpen; any trade they make will focus on their offense or starting rotation. BUY/SELL: None.

Fujikawa to DL, Casilla picks up first save of season, Hanrahan Struggling

April 14, 2013

San Francisco Giants – As predicted in the vulture save watch, Santiago Casilla picked up the save yesterday. Sergio Romo is still the closer but the Giants have always tried to limit his usage so Casilla could continue to see some save opportunities on days when Romo is rested. No hierarchy change.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2014 Closer |UpdatedSF |Romo |Casilla |Lopez |Romo |4/14/13

 
Boston Red Sox – Joel Hanrahan has not been pitching well to start the season.  He came on in the 9th yesterday with the score tied and walked the first two batters before being replaced by Uehara.  Managaer John Farrell said after the game that Hanrahan will remain the closer, but that could change quickly.  Andrew Bailey has been pitching extremely well in the 8th inning and could easily slide into the closers role if Hanrahan does not turn it around.  Joel Hanrahan to Hot Seat.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2014 Closer |UpdatedBOS |Hanrahan |Bailey |Uehara |Hanrahan |4/14/13

 
Colorado Rockies – Rex Brothers continues to pitch well out of the Rockies bullpen.  He pitched a scoreless 9th last night with the Rockies up 4 to lower his ERA to 1.42 on the season.  Hierarchy change: Rex Brothers to set-up, Matt Belisle to 2nd in line.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2014 Closer |UpdatedCOL |Betancourt |Brothers |Belisle |Betancourt |4/14/13

 
Houston Astros – Jose Veras blew his first save opportunity of the season last night.  He is still the closer, but remains on the Hot Seat as he has not pitched very well so far this season.  No hierarchy change.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2014 Closer |UpdatedHOU |Veras |Cruz |Ambriz |Veras |4/14/13

 
Chicago Cubs – Kyuji Fujikawa has been placed on the disabled list with a muscle sprain in his right forearm.  The injury is not particularly serious and Fujikawa is expected back in a few weeks, but until then, Shawn Camp and James Russell will share 9th inning duties.  Carlos Marmol is not expected to be involved in the platoon.  Hierarchy change: Shawn Camp to Closer, James Russell to Set-up, Michael Bowden to 2nd in line, Kyuji Fujikawa to DL.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2014 Closer |UpdatedCHC |Camp |Russell |Bowden |Fujikawa |4/14/13 |Fujikawa(DL)|

 
VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. James Russell, Chicago Cubs –  Shawn Camp and James Russell will be sharing the closer role.
2. Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates – Jason Grilli has pitched back to back nights, throwing over 40 pitches in the process.

 

Jose Veras starts season on Hot Seat

April 1, 2013

Texas Rangers – Late last week, Ron Washington signaled that Robbie Ross and Michael Kirkman would be the team’s primary set-up men, moves that were reinforced over the weekend.  Josh Lindblom, who many thought would serve as a late-inning man, was sent to the minors to be stretched out as a starter, while Jason Frasor was used in the 7th inning last night with the Rangers down four runs.  Hierarchy change: Robbie Ross to Set-up, Michael Kirkman to 2nd in line. 

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2014 Closer |UpdatedTEX |Nathan |Ross |Kirkman |Nathan |4/1/13

 
Houston Astros – Erik Bedard, the team’s fifth starter, picked up a 3.1-inning save last night.  Bedard isn’t expected to start for several days and may not appear out of the bullpen for the rest of the year.  However, this doesn’t mean Jose Veras’s job is safe by any means.  He struggled in Spring Training and the World Baseball Classic, and the team has said that he will have to earn his closer spot.  A few bad outings, and the Astros may look elsewhere.  Jose Veras to Hot Seat.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2014 Closer |UpdatedHOU |Veras |Ambriz |Wright |Veras |4/1/13

 
Detroit Tigers – Joaquin Benoit, our listed “closer” is not actually the team’s stopper, as Jim Leyland has indicated that any member of the bullpen could be the man to get the final outs.  Based on the volatility of the bullpen, however, it is safe to say that a few bad outings from Benoit (or any of the team’s other relievers) will remove him from the discussion.  Joaquin Benoit to Hot Seat

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2014 Closer |UpdatedDET |Benoit |Coke |Alburquerque|Rondon |4/1/13

Brewers bullpen melts down again; Chad Durbin pitching well

July 30, 2012

Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers bullpen had another meltdown on Sunday, and all of their top relievers were to blame; John Axford, Francisco Rodriguez, and Jose Veras all gave up multiple runs.  Earlier this week, Ron Roenicke declared a closer-by-committee, with several Brewers beat writers thought Axford would quickly win his job back.  He’s still likely to do so before the end of the season, but the Brewers may look elsewhere for saves in the near future.  No hierarchy change.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedMIL |Axford |Rodriguez |Veras |Axford |7/30/12

 
Atlanta Braves – With Jonny Venters’ inconsistency and the team’s desire to stretch Kris Medlen out, the Braves have been searching for a steady 7th inning man all season.  They may have found one in Chad Durbin, who after a rough start has allowed only 4 ERs in his last 28 innings, a span of 35 appearances.  On Sunday, he bailed Venters out in the 6th inning and then stayed on for the 7th, recording his 10th hold of the year.  Hierarchy change: Chad Durbin to 2nd in line, replacing Jonny Venters.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedATL |Kimbrel |O'Flaherty |Durbin |Kimbrel |7/30/12

 
Minnesota Twins – Alex Burnett pitched the 7th inning on Sunday ahead of Jared Burton and Glen Perkins, earning his 7th hold of the season.  Tyler Robertson has struggled as of late, giving up runs in his last three appearances.  Hierarchy change: Alex Burnett to 2nd in line, replacing Tyler Robertson.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedMIN |Perkins |Burton |Burnett |Perkins |7/30/12 |Capps(DL) |

 
VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Vicente Padilla, Boston Red Sox – Alfredo Aceves pitched 2.1 innings last night, his second night of work in a row.
2. Jared Burton, Minnesota Twins – The Twins are employing a committee, and while Glen Perkins remains the best bet for saves, Jared Burton could get an opportunity whenever the Twins are facing a righty-heavy lineup.