Trade Deadline Buy/Sell Report: American League Closers

July 17, 2013

SPECIAL UPDATE: TRADE DEADLINE BUY/SELL REPORT (PART ONE OF TWO)

Glossary
BUY+: This player has a large chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR Version
BUY+: Jose Cisnero
BUY: Matt Lindstrom; Glen Perkins; Jared Burton; Ryan Cook; Yoervis Medina
SELL: Koji Uehara; Addison Reed; Grant Balfour
SELL+: Joaquin Benoit; Jose Veras; Oliver Perez

Baltimore Orioles — In the thick of an extremely competitive AL East race, the O’s are likely to stay with their current approach in the bullpen: Darren O’Day and Tommy Hunter pitching effectively in front of an inconsistent Jim Johnson. BUY/SELL: None.
Boston Red Sox — Boston might not be satisfied with adding Matt Thornton; there’s still a chance that they acquire Bobby Parnell, Jonathan Papelbon, Addison Reed, or Francisco Rodriguez, any of whom would significantly erode Koji Uehara’s fantasy value. SELL: Koji Uehara.
New York Yankees — With all the injuries stalking the Bronx this season (including a 97 MPH All-Star Game fastball to Robinson Cano’s quadriceps), the late innings are the least of Joe Girardi’s concerns. Although New York could always add a setup arm, there’s not a pitcher in the world who could derail Mariano Rivera’s farewell tour. BUY/SELL: None.
Tampa Bay Rays — Fernando Rodney isn’t the most reliable closer in the league, but the Rays are still likely to stand pat at this year’s trade deadline. BUY/SELL: None.
Toronto Blue Jays — The Jays’ bullpen has been the team’s biggest strength this disappointing season, and although they might move a pitcher if they get the right offer, any trade is unlikely to affect the save picture. BUY/SELL: None. 

Chicago White Sox — With the White Sox languishing in the AL Central basement, Addison Reed could be traded if another team makes a great offer. If Reed does move, he’ll either take on a setup role (drastically decreasing his value) or close for a better team (mildly increasing it). On balance, we think the rest of this season will see a slight regression in Reed’s worth to you. Meanwhile, if Reed is traded, Matt Lindstrom will probably be the White Sox pitcher who benefits most. Jesse Crain could be in the mix also, once he returns from his injury, but (as noted in the link above) he’s even more likely to be flipped this month. BUY: Matt Lindstrom. SELL: Addison Reed.
Cleveland Indians — The Indians need to add a lefty arm and perhaps replace Vinnie Pestano, but Chris Perez and Cody Allen are pretty secure. BUY/SELL: None.
Detroit Tigers — Detroit is likely to trade for one or two relief pitchers; although it’s not yet clear whether they will replace Joaquin Benoit with a “proven closer” or simply reload with middle relief reinforcements, we think Benoit’s days as the closer in Comerica are numbered. SELL+: Joaquin Benoit.
Kansas City Royals — Although there’s a strong case that Kansas City should flip Greg Holland now, at the height of his value, the three years of team control remaining suggest that he’ll remain a Royal for a while. BUY/SELL: None.
Minnesota Twins — Glen Perkins is too good a closer to stay on this bad Minnesota team; if he’s traded, he’ll almost certainly be closing for a contender, while Ron Gardenhire goes to Jared (Burton) and dreams of someday getting a ring. BUY: Glen Perkins, Jared Burton.

Houston Astros — With Houston as bad as expected, Jose Veras is extremely likely to be traded this July — but he’ll probably move into a setup role wherever he ends up. Jose Cisnero is expected to succeed Veras, if necessary. BUY+: Jose Cisnero. SELL+: Jose Veras.
Los Angeles Angels — It’s been a disappointing year for the Angels and it’s unlikely that any exciting bullpen trade news will spark a second-half renaissance. BUY/SELL: None.
Oakland A’s — Oakland might add another arm in middle relief; they were chasing Matt Thornton before the Red Sox sealed that deal. With Grant Balfour facing free agency, though, don’t put it past Billy Beane to deal his All-Star closer, even with the A’s atop their division. BUY: Ryan Cook. SELL: Grant Balfour.
Seattle Mariners — Oliver Perez and Charlie Furbush are both attractive trade bait; Perez’s save chances are likely to drop off dramatically if (and when) he’s moved. Yoervis Medina could benefit as a result. BUY: Yoervis Medina. SELL+: Oliver Perez.
Texas Rangers — The Rangers are very happy with their deep bullpen; any trade they make will focus on their offense or starting rotation. BUY/SELL: None.

Garrett Richards becoming an important man in the Angels bullpen

May 31, 2013

New York Mets – Though he’s been sabermetrically terrifying all season, Scott Rice has been real-world effective for the Mets as their go-to late-innings lefty.  Until his walk rate catches up to him, Rice would probably be the man for the save if the Mets were facing a lefty-heavy ninth inning and Bobby Parnell were unavailable.  Also in Mets news, Frank Francisco was transferred to the 60-day DL and may have thrown his last pitch as a Met.  Hierarchy change: Scott Rice to 2nd in line, replacing LaTroy Hawkins.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
NYMBobby ParnellBrandon LyonScott RiceBobby Parnell5/31/13
Frank Francisco (DL)

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Miami Marlins – Mike Dunn has seen his ERA climb by nearly a point and a half over his last two outings, including an uninspiring 0.1 innings last night.  Since declaring closer-by-committee a week and a half ago, there’s been little clarity in who has the lead, given how rarely the Marlins fall into a 9th inning save chance.  Steve Cishek is probably still the best guy to own, if you only own one Marlins reliever, but given the lefty’s recent struggles, Mike Dunn has likely fallen behind Chad Qualls in the runner-up position.  Hierarchy change: Chad Qualls to Set-up, Mike Dunn to 2nd in line.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
MIASteve CishekChad QuallsMike DunnSteve Cishek5/31/13

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Minnesota Twins – Glen Perkins had the night off on Thursday, so as predicted in yesterday’s Vulture Save Watch, Jared Burton picked up his second save of the year.  No hierarchy change.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
MINGlen PerkinsJared BurtonCasey FienGlen Perkins5/31/13

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Houston Astros – Also predicted in yesterday’s Vulture Save Watch was a potential opportunity for Hector Ambriz, who struck out two in a solid 9th inning for his first career save.  (It was a good day for the VSW, even despite Mike Matheny’s baffling decision to go to Mitchell Boggs rather than Trevor Rosenthal in the Cardinals game.)  No hierarchy change.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
HOUJose VerasHector AmbrizWesley WrightJose Veras5/31/13

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Los Angeles Angels – Garrett Richards has pitched the 8th inning ahead of Ernesto Frieri three times in the past week and has moved ahead of Scott Downs on the depth chart.  Richards now has five holds on the season, four of which have come in the last eight days.  Hierarchy change: Garrett Richards to Set-up, Scott Downs to 2nd in line. 

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
LAAErnesto FrieriGarrett RichardsScott DownsErnesto Frieri5/31/13
Ryan Madson (DL)

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Philadelphia Phillies – Mike Adams had a rocky return from the disabled list on Monday, but was back to his old form on Wednesday, pitching a clean 8th ahead of Jonathan Papelbon.  Hierarchy change: Mike Adams to Set-up, Antonio Bastardo to 2nd in line.  

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
PHIJonathan PapelbonMike AdamsAntonio BastardoJonathan Papelbon5/30/13

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VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Joel Peralta/Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays – Fernando Rodney has pitched in four straight and five of six.  Joel Peralta has also pitched in five of six, though his day off came more recently.  If Peralta can go, he’ll get the save opportunity tonight should one arise.  If not, Jake McGee will get the call.
2. Junichi Tazawa, Boston Red Sox – When Andrew Bailey returned from the DL a little over a week ago, John Farrell said he wouldn’t use him on back to back nights for a while.  Until he proves he can do it, Junichi Tazawa is a decent add after any Bailey appearance.

Neil Wagner with impressive debut; Kyuji Fujikawa done for the year

May 30, 2013

Atlanta Braves – Jordan Walden returned from the DL to pitch a scoreless inning on Wednesday.  Though Cory Gearrin and Luis Avilan have pitched well in their roles as the 8th inning triage team, Walden’s experience would have to throw him into immediate consideration for saves should anything happen to Craig Kimbrel.  Hierarchy change: Jordan Walden to 2nd in line, replacing Luis Avilan.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
ATLCraig KimbrelCory GearrinJordan WaldenCraig Kimbrel5/30/13
Eric O’Flaherty (DL)

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Chicago Cubs – Reports emerged yesterday that Kyuji Fujikawa will undergo Tommy John surgery.  He can safely be dropped in any non-keeper league.  No hierarchy change.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
CHCKevin GreggCarlos MarmolJames Russell
Kevin Gregg5/30/13

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Toronto Blue Jays – With many of their top relievers injured, the Blue Jays on Wednesday called up their AAA closer, Neil Wagner, and immediately thrust him in to a big spot.  Wagner, 29, a hard-throwing righty, pitched the 7th and 8th innings in a 3-run game before giving way to Casey Janssen.  He allowed only one hit and struck out two.  Wagner’s stats in AAA are very impressive (20.1 IP, 0.89 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 13 saves, and 32 Ks/8 BBs), and the lack of (healthy) closing experience in the Toronto bullpen puts him immediately in the conversation if Janssen’s recent shoulder complaints turn into something real.  Hierarchy change: Neil Wagner to 2nd in line, replacing Brett Cecil.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
TORCasey JanssenSteve DelabarNeil WagnerSergio Santos5/30/13
Sergio Santos (DL)Darren Oliver (DL)

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VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals – Edward Mujica has pitched in four straight.
2. Joel Peralta, Tampa Bay Rays – Fernando Rodney has pitched in three straight and four of five.
3. Sean Doolittle/Ryan Cook, Oakland A’s – Grant Balfour has pitched in three straight.  Sean Doolittle has gotten the 8th lately, but he’s pitched 4.1 innings over the past four days, and might be rested tonight as well, meaning a possible save opp for Ryan Cook.
4. Jared Burton, Minnesota Twins – Glen Perkins has pitched in three straight.
5. Hector Ambriz, Houston Astros – Jose Veras has pitched in three straight.

Steve Delabar could be closing soon for the Blue Jays

May 29, 2013

Toronto Blue Jays — With Darren Oliver on the disabled list with a strained shoulder, Steve Delabar has ascended to the setup role in the threadbare Jays bullpen. Right behind him is an equally overworked Brett Cecil, who has struck out eight of the last fourteen batters he’s faced. As Casey Janssen was held out of Tuesday’s game with a “tender” shoulder, Delabar may see ninth-inning action very soon. Hierarchy change: Steve Delabar to Set-up, Brett Cecil to 2nd in line, Darren Oliver to DL.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
TORCasey JanssenSteve DelabarBrett CecilSergio Santos5/29/13
Sergio Santos (DL)Darren Oliver (DL)

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Miami Marlins – Mike Dunn entered in the eighth with a one-run lead and gave up three singles to tie the game; sent back out for the bottom of the ninth, he allowed two more singles and took the loss after Chad Qualls surrendered a game-ending hit. Those looking for clarity from this bullpen should prepare to wait two more weeks for the next save situation. No hierarchy change.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
MIASteve CishekMike DunnChad QuallsSteve Cishek5/29/13

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New York Yankees — Joba Chamberlain was reactivated from the disabled list before Tuesday’s game. Although the Yankees’ pen has grown somewhat crowded in his absence, he should get a chance to regain his seventh-inning role. Hierarchy change: Joba Chamberlain to 2nd in line, replacing Boone Logan.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
NYYMariano RiveraDavid RobertsonJoba ChamberlainDavid Robertson5/29/13

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Cleveland Indians — Chris Perez had an MRI on Tuesday, which revealed tendinitis in his right rotator cuff. The injury is not expected to be serious, and Perez should return from the disabled list on or around June 11. No hierarchy change.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
CLEVinnie PestanoJoe SmithCody AllenChris Perez5/29/13
 Chris Perez (DL)

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Minnesota Twins — Brian Duensing got his first save of the season on Tuesday by pitching a scoreless fourteenth inning. No hierarchy change.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
MINGlen PerkinsJared BurtonCasey FienGlen Perkins5/29/13

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VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals — Edward Mujica has pitched in three straight.
2. Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays — Fernando Rodney and Joel Peralta have each had two straight lengthy outings.
3. Jared Burton, Minnesota Twins — Glen Perkins blew a save last night in a 29-pitch outing, and Burton is slightly better rested.
4. Sean Doolittle/Ryan Cook, Oakland A’s — Grant Balfour has had two somewhat strenuous outings back-to-back.
5. Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers — Jansen has at least a putative shot at a save every night under the current Dodgers bullpen setup.

Brandon League barely hanging on to his job; Heath Bell blows a save

May 13, 2013

Los Angeles Dodgers – Brandon League entered Sunday’s game with the Dodgers up by four, and promptly allowed two runs to score before nailing down the final out.  His ERA climbed to 6.28 after the crummy outing, and he remains firmly on the Hot Seat.  One more bad outing, and Kenley Jansen could finally inherit the job.  No hierarchy change.

CloserSet-Up2nd in line2014 CloserUpdated
LADBrandon LeagueKenley JansenRonald BelisarioKenley Jansen5/13/13

 
Arizona Diamondbacks – Heath Bell looked like the Heath Bell of 2012 on Sunday, blowing the save and watching as the Diamondbacks lost in the 10th.  It was Bell’s first blown save since inheriting the job, but since Kirk Gibson said early on that Bell and David Hernandez could both be used in the 9th inning, Bell might not get another opportunity if he blows up again.  Heath Bell to Hot Seat.

CloserSet-Up2nd in line2014 CloserUpdated
ARIHeath BellDavid HernandezBrad ZieglerJJ Putz5/13/13
JJ Putz (DL)

 
Milwaukee Brewers – Tom Gorzelanny was placed on the DL over the weekend.  Brandon Kintzler picked up an 8th-inning hold earlier this week and stands to get more high-leverage chances in Gorzelanny’s absence.  Hierarchy change: Burke Badenhop to Set-up, Brandon Kintzler to 2nd in line, Tom Gorzelanny to DL.

CloserSet-Up2nd in line2014 CloserUpdated
MILJim HendersonBurke BadenhopBrandon KintzlerJim Henderson5/13/13
Tom Gorzelanny (DL)

 
New York Mets – Scott Rice’s ratios have been ugly all season, but early on, he was at least getting outs.  His high walk rate has started to catch up to him though, and given that he has a tough time facing righties, it’s unlikely the Mets would go to him in a save spot unless they were playing matchups.  Veterans LaTroy Hawkins and Brandon Lyon are both more likely to get a 9th inning chance on nights when Bobby Parnell is unavailable.  Hierarchy change: LaTroy Hawkins to Set-up, Brandon Lyon to 2nd in line.

CloserSet-Up2nd in line2014 CloserUpdated
NYMBobby ParnellLaTroy HawkinsBrandon LyonBobby Parnell5/13/13
Frank Francisco (DL)

 
Tampa Bay Rays – Jake McGee picked up his second 7th-inning hold in the past week on Sunday.  McGee has an extremely high ERA, but it’s mostly due to one horrible outing he had in early May.  On the rare night when both Fernando Rodney and Joel Peralta were unavailable, he’d likely get the save opp.  Hierarchy change: Jake McGee to 2nd in line, replacing Jamey Wright. 

CloserSet-Up2nd in line2014 CloserUpdated
TBFernando RodneyJoel PeraltaJake McGeeFernando Rodney5/13/13

 
Cleveland Indians – Cody Allen picked up a one-inning save in the 10th inning for the Indians on Sunday.  Chris Perez experienced some mild stiffness as he was warming up, but expects to be fine tomorrow.  No hierarchy change.

CloserSet-Up2nd in line2014 CloserUpdated
CLEChris PerezJoe SmithBryan ShawChris Perez5/13/13
Vinnie Pestano (DL)

 
VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Joe Smith, Cleveland Indians – Chris Perez was unavailable last night, and if he can’t go today, Joe Smith could get a save opportunity.  Even if Perez is available, Smith is a decent add, as the Indians have a doubleheader today.
2. LaTroy Hawkins, New York Mets – Bobby Parnell threw 30 pitches in a 1.1 inning outing on Sunday.
3. Jared Burton, Minnesota Twins – Glen Perkins has been unavailable for a few days with a strained side.