2015 NL Central preview

March 8, 2015

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs enter the season with more certainty at closer than they have had in years. Hector Rondon did not waste his opportunity last year, and enters this year with Joe Maddon already committing to him as the closer. Maddon has never been shy about using his closer in non-save spots though, so that takes a bite out of Rondon’s value and adds some to the other relief options. There are a lot of power arms available in the Cubs bullpen, so the true hierarchy will probably be in flux early on. Pedro Strop will start in the set-up role and Neil Ramirez will be in line in case they falter. Maddon also spoke highly of their major pickup Jason Motte, calling him a “force multiplier.” And with the recent addition of Phil Coke, they found the lefty specialist that they were looking for, and he should be in line for any LOOGY holds that pop up. Overall, the Cubs have a lot of solid options in the bullpen, but that hurts each player’s individual value, especially with Maddon’s tendency to use his best relievers in the highest-leverage spots, without worrying if they will pick up a hold or a save.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Rondon | Strop | Ramirez.
Holds candidates: Strop, Ramirez.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds bullpen has a fantasy monster in closer Aroldis Chapman. When healthy, he is the most dominant relief pitcher in the game, and will rack up K’s as quickly as some starting pitchers. Behind him, Cincy is a bit of a mess. Jumbo Diaz was a solid option for them last year, and will likely start with the 8th inning duties, but he doesn’t have overpowering stuff. Sam LeCure was a consistent performer last year, but despite injuries and poor performances around him, he only found himself in 2 save opportunities all season. Newly acquired Kevin Gregg has closing experience, but at 38 and coming off an injury, he will have to prove himself before he gets the call. Sean Marshall was supposed to be the primary left hander, but injuries last year and a recent setback in his recovery have slowed his return. Finally, J.J. Hoover is trying to forget his 2014 campaign, and the early returns are solid, striking out the side in his first appearance in spring training. With a multitude of options, nobody really stands out. The best bets for holds early on are Diaz and LeCure. If Marshall and Gregg can recover from their injuries, or if Hoover regains some of his form, then they could run away with the set up job, but nothing but an injury is going to unseat the Cuban Missile in the closer role.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Chapman | Diaz | LeCure
Holds candidates: Diaz, LeCure.

Milwaukee Brewers – With the re-signing of Francisco Rodriguez, and the addition of Jonathan Broxton, the top two spots in the Milwaukee pen seem to be pretty well set. That’s what we thought last year as well, before a surprise appearance of K-Rod coming on to close instead of Jim Henderson. Rodriguez never looked back, and racked up 44 saves over a very solid season. This year the job is his to lose, but he has yet to report to camp. The Brewers say they are not worried, but if his absence stretches later into March we know that Ron Roenicke isn’t afraid to defy expectations. Will Smith will be the primary lefty in the pen and should see plenty of work against right handed hitters as well. If he can Focus on avoiding a mid-season lull like last year, he is a strong candidate for holds as he led the league in appearances with 78. Jim Henderson is a sleeper candidate for saves as the former closer is trying to make a comeback from a forgettable 2014.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Rodriguez | Broxton | Smith.
Holds candidates: Broxton, Smith.

Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates head into the season with no major changes to their bullpen. Mark Melancon will get the first shot at saves after taking over the closers role last year — he converted 23 of 24 save opportunities down the stretch and was instrumental in Pittsburgh’s playoff run. Behind him, the Pirates will turn to lefty Tony Watson as their primary set up man, who has value as a middle reliever, particularly in holds leagues, as a strikeout-per-inning pitcher who doesn’t walk many batters. Newly acquired Antonio Bastardo joins him as the other lefty in the pen, with Jared Hughes also in the mix for late-inning work. In holds leagues, the pride of New Zealand, John Holdzkom, is a sleeper candidate for high leverage innings. He has a power arm and performed well in his brief call up at the end of 2014, but he’s unproven in the majors and has minor league options available. The Pirates may send him down early, and lean on new acquisitions Arquimedes Caminero and former top prospect Radhames Liz to fill out the back end of their bullpen.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Melancon | Watson | Bastardo.
Holds candidates – Watson, Hughes.

St. Louis Cardinals – Trevor Rosenthal seems secure in his spot to start 2015, though the departure of All Star Pat Neshek has left a hole in the setup role. However, the Cardinals acquired Jordan Walden and Matt Belisle, who will likely slot into the late innings along with Kevin Siegrist. The Cardinals have made a habit of picking up relievers and making them stars, and that could happen with either of their new additions, or journeyman Carlos Villanueva. Villanueva has posted much better numbers as a reliever than as a starter, and if the Cards shift him to that role, he could be a poor man’s Pat Neshek.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Rosenthal | Walden | Belisle.
Holds candidates: Walden, Belisle.

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Uehara has worst outing of career, Qualls returns

August 23, 2014

Boston Red Sox — Koji Uehara had the worst relief outing of his career last night.  He gave up 5 runs, all with two outs, and blew his third save of the season.  Uehara has given up at least one run in three straight appearances, after giving up zero runs in his previous thirteen outings.

Hierarchy remains: Uehara | Mujica | Tazawa.

Houston Astros — Chad Qualls was back on the mound Friday night, pitching a scoreless 9th to finish off an Astros win.  He appears to be over the tightness in his lower back that kept him from pitching on Wednesday and Thursday.

Hierarchy remains: Qualls | Fields | Sipp.

Philadelphia Phillies — Jake Diekman got the last two outs of the 7th inning last night, protecting a one run lead.  Diekman picked up his 15th hold of the season, and it was his second straight appearance pitching the 7th inning ahead of Ken Giles and Jonathan Papelbon.  Antonio Bastardo, on the other hand, has taken the loss in three of his last four appearances.  Diekman should continue to see time in the later innings for the Phillies.

Updated hierarchy: Papelbon | Giles | Diekman.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Junichi Tazawa, Boston Red Sox – Koji Uehara threw 38 pitches last night and Edward Mujica has pitched in three straight
2. Jonathan Broxton, Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman has pitched in two straight, including a 2 inning, 36 pitch appearance last night.
3. Kevin Quackenbush, San Diego Padres – Quackenbush could get the call if Benoit is still unavailable on Saturday.

Chad Qualls unlikely to be traded; Jake Petricka now full-time

July 25, 2014

Houston Astros – Though seemingly a prime trade candidate, Chad Qualls is extremely unlikely to be moved, according to Astros GM Jeff Luhnow. Qualls, who is signed through 2015 and has a team option for 2016, has been a wonderful surprise for both Houston and his fantasy owners, and appears to still be a reliable bet for saves for the remainder of the season.

Hierarchy remains: Qualls | Fields | Sipp.

Miami Marlins – The A’s finally sent ole’ Jim Johnson out to pasture prior to Thursday’s game. We initially weren’t going to mention this, but Johnson is somehow still owned in 13 percent of leagues. And, actually, there’s a small chance that this increases his relevancy again, as the Marlins were reportedly interested in acquiring Johnson as recently as a few days ago. If they sign him, and then decide to move Steve Cishek, then Johnson could potentially be in the mix for saves in Miami.

Hierarchy remains: Cishek | Morris | Ramos.

Chicago White Sox — With Thursday’s news that Zach Putnam is headed to the disabled list with shoulder inflammation, Jake Petricka went, by default, from part-time closer to full-time closer. He responded well in his first save chance on Thursday night, striking out two in a perfect inning, and has the chance to seize the role for good ahead of Putnam’s (and Matt Lindstrom’s and Nate Jones’s) return.

Updated hierarchy: Petricka | Belisario | Guerra.

Detroit Tigers – With Joakim Soria looking on from the bullpen, Joe Nathan on Thursday pitched like a man who knew that even a single slip-up could cost him his job. Nathan had his most dominant appearance of the season, needing only 12 pitches to strike out the side. It’s possible that he’s still just one blown save from losing the job, but Nathan has likely created a tiny bit of breathing room for himself.

Hierarchy remains: Nathan | Soria | Chamberlain.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Ken Giles/Antonio Bastardo, Philadelphia Phillies – Jonathan Papelbon has pitched in three straight, throwing a total of 65 pitches over 4 innings.
2. Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals – Greg Holland and Wade Davis have both pitched in three straight.

Neftali Feliz will close in Texas

July 24, 2014

Texas Rangers — 26-year-old Neftali Feliz, an All-Star closer in 2010, will get the first shot at the ninth with Joakim Soria headed to Detroit. “We’ll give him a shot,” Ron Washington said. “He is the only one with experience.” Shawn Tolleson and Neal Cotts will back him up.

Updated hierarchy: Feliz | Tolleson | Cotts.

Detroit Tigers — The Tigers have acquired Joakim Soria from the Texas Rangers. Joe Nathan will hang onto his job for now, but his Hot Seat is glowing white with his former set-up guy looming.

Updated hierarchy: Nathan | Soria | Chamberlain.

Houston Astros — Although he admits that he’s been burned before and remains “very guarded,” Houston GM Jeff Luhnow still hopes Jesse Crain and Matt Albers will return to give the Astros a few innings this year in exchange for their combined $5.5 million in salary. Finding the saddest part of that sentence is left as an exercise for the reader. In far less depressing news, Josh Fields has struck out 18 men and allowed only three baserunners in 9.1 innings since his return from the DL. He has the edge over Tony Sipp.

Updated hierarchy: Qualls | Fields | Sipp.

Tampa Bay Rays — Brad Boxberger to Jake McGee: two perfect innings with five strikeouts. A fella could get used to this. And get well soon, Joel Peralta; hope you don’t have that nasty chikungunya virus.

Hierarchy remains: McGee | Balfour | Boxberger.

Chicago White Sox — Chicago’s bullpen may soon become crowded if Nate Jones and Matt Lindstrom can return as planned early next month. Jones has been throwing on flat ground for some time now. Lindstrom will pitch batting practice this weekend, then start a minor league rehab assignment if all goes well.

Hierarchy remains: Putnam | Petricka | Belisario.

Toronto Blue Jays — First, Sergio Santos’s stuff went south; now he will, to AAA Buffalo, after clearing waivers.

Hierarchy remains: Janssen | McGowan | Loup.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Sergio Romo, San Francisco Giants — Santiago Casilla has pitched in three straight games.
2. Ken Giles/Antonio Bastardo, Philadelphia Phillies — With Jonathan Papelbon likely unavailable after throwing 55 pitches in the last two days, Ryne Sandberg might have to choose between preparing his closer of the future or showcasing a promising trade chip.
3. Luke Gregerson, Oakland Athletics — Sean Doolittle has pitched in three of four games, including last night, and the A’s play a day game on Thursday.

Grant Balfour, of course, with a seven-out save

June 12, 2014

Tampa Bay Rays — Huh. In a one-run game, Joe Maddon summoned Juan Carlos Oviedo in the sixth, watched him get one out and hit a batter in the seventh, brought in Cesar Ramos as a LOOGY, and then let deposed closer Grant Balfour finish the inning. When the Rays scored two in the bottom of the seventh, Maddon sensed an opportunity to help the embattled Australian regain some confidence — so out he came to pitch a perfect eighth. And though Joel Peralta was up and warming prior to the ninth inning, it was Balfour who finished the game, earning a surprising 2.1-inning save. After the game, Maddon explained that the closer committee is still in effect, but it seems he’d like the Goose Gossage of New South Wales back in the role as soon as possible.

Updated hierarchy: Peralta | Balfour | McGee.

Texas Rangers — Tanner Scheppers came off the disabled list, made four appearances in six days, and promptly returned to the DL Wednesday — this time for a “prolonged shutdown period.” This is Texas’s 20th disabled list move of the season, which means that their next procedure with Dr. James Andrews is free.

Updated hierarchy: Soria | Frasor | Cotts.

Minnesota Twins — Casey Fien picked up an unusual save by coming in for the last out of the eighth with two on in a four-run game, then finishing the ninth up five. He relieved Jared Burton, who has been surprisingly bad this season, with as many earned runs as strikeouts. Lefty Brian Duensing’s peripherals are only slightly better, but his ERA is half that of Burton, and he’s been getting some seventh-inning love lately.

Updated hierarchy: Perkins | Fien | Duensing.

New York Mets — Vic Black appears to have nosed ahead of Carlos Torres in the New York bullpen.

Updated hierarchy: Mejia | Familia | Black.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Antonio Bastardo, Philadelphia Phillies — Jonathan Papelbon threw 28 pitches Tuesday and 17 pitches Wednesday.