Boxberger and Mujica expected to see save chances to start season

March 30, 2015

Tampa Bay Rays — The Rays have several options to close while Jake McGee is out.  Grant Balfour should be ready for the start of the season after missing a couple weeks due to the passing away of his father.  However, it looks like Brad Boxberger will see the most save chances.  Boxberger had over 100 strikeouts last year and could thrive in the closer’s role to start the season.

Updated hierarchy:  Boxberger* | Balfour | Jepsen.
* – closer-by-committee

Boston Red Sox — It looks like closer Koji Uehara will not be ready to close at the beginning of the season for the Red Sox.  Manager John Farrell has said that Edward Mujica will close if Uehara is unavailable.

Updated hierarchy: Mujica | Ogando | Tazawa.

Oakland A’s — Manager Bob Melvin confirmed that Tyler Clippard will begin the season as their closer.  Sean Doolittle is still working his way back from a shoulder injury and felt good after his first throwing session on Friday.

Hierarchy remains: Clippard | O’Flaherty | Otero.

New York Mets — Bobby Parnell could be back for the Mets sooner than the original May 1st target date.  Parnell’s velocity has been down so far but he is not concerned by the radar gun readings as he works his way back.  Parnell could challenge Mejia for the closer’s job when he returns.

Hierarchy remains: Mejia | Familia | Black.

Joel Peralta nudges his way to the front in Los Angeles

March 26, 2015

Los Angeles Dodgers — Chris Hatcher and his Wilsonesque beard have endured some rough outings lately, pushing his spring ERA over 10. Although Hatcher is a virtual lock to make the team because he’s out of minor league options, Joel Peralta may have edged in front of him in the race to lead what appears to be a confirmed committee situation that could also include Sergio Santos, Juan Nicasio, and lefties J.P. Howell and Paco Rodriguez. As expected, Brandon League will join Kenley Jansen on the DL to start the season, and some in LA are looking Rafael Soriano’s way.

Updated hierarchy: Peralta* | Hatcher | Santos.
*closer-by-committee

Oakland A’s — A struggling Ryan Cook was sent to the minors on Tuesday to fix his mechanics. Eric O’Flaherty and Dan Otero will back up Tyler Clippard during Sean Doolittle’s absence, and young R.J. Alvarez is another intriguing option. Doolittle, meanwhile, is staying busy teaching his coaches about social media.

Updated hierarchy: Clippard | O’Flaherty | Otero.

Boston Red Sox — Koji Uehara, who turns 40 next week, might miss Opening Day with a hamstring strain. Edward Mujica would likely take the closer’s role until Uehara can get healthy, with Alexi Ogando moving ahead of Junichi Tazawa as a backup option.

Updated hierarchy: Uehara | Mujica | Ogando.

Tampa Bay Rays — Grant Balfour made his first appearance of the spring on Monday and expects to be ready for Opening Day. All three of Tampa’s current top relievers allowed a run in the game. Jake McGee is throwing curveballs again and should be back to closing in late April or early May.

Hierarchy remains: Balfour | Boxberger | Jepsen.

Toronto Blue Jays — As expected, Brett Cecil was officially named Toronto’s closer; Aaron Loup will set him up, with Steve Delabar and Miguel Castro behind them.

Hierarchy remains: Cecil | Loup | Delabar.

Colorado Rockies — Walt Weiss told reporters that Adam Ottavino will be the club’s top vulture save option when 42-year-old closer LaTroy Hawkins is fatigued, or watching Matlock reruns.

Updated hierarchy: Hawkins | Ottavino | Axford.

Cincinnati Reds — The eighth inning is wide open for the Reds, according to manager Bryan Price, who named no fewer than five possibilities for set-up work. We’ll leave things the way they are until the situation clears up, but one intriguing option Price didn’t mention is lefty Tony Cingrani, who may find a welcoming home in the bullpen.

Hierarchy remains: Chapman | Diaz | LeCure.

Top 30 relievers for holds leagues

Holds are a notoriously difficult category to predict due to the number of variables involved. Relievers who rack up a ton of holds are often solid relievers on good teams who come in ahead of strong closers in the 7th and 8th innings. Good closers will prevent very talented relievers from taking over the 9th inning duties, leaving these fantasy studs perfectly positioned to rack up holds every night. Additionally, being on good teams simply provides more hold opportunities because these teams are more often ahead in the late innings. Because it is difficult to predict injuries and changes in the hierarchy before the season starts (that’s why we are here!), the following rankings are those pitchers most likely to get a lot of holds over the course of the season. There is also value added to guys who are going to be guaranteed to get some saves due to a closer injury to start the season.

1. Wade Davis
2. Andrew Miller
3. Jordan Walden
4. Jason Grilli
5. Tyler Clippard
6. Jake Petricka
7. Tony Watson

With the exception of Clippard, who will at least begin the season as Oakland’s closer with Sean Doolittle injured, this group represents the cream of the set-up man crop. Each of these players will set-up elite closers and reap the benefits of numerous hold opportunities. Their stock will be further bolstered by their stability in their roles. If they out-grow their set-up role, they will trade hold opportunities for save opportunities.

8. Joel Peralta
9. Brad Boxberger
10. Casey Janssen
11. Darren O’Day
12. Jenrry Mejia
13. Joakim Soria

Peralta and Mejia will begin the season in the closer spot, but their real value will be piling up holds once Kenley Jansen and Bobby Parnell return from injury. The early-season saves will be a nice bonus. Joakim Soria will get holds for as long as Joe Nathan can resist imploding this season. Again, Soria’s biggest upside will be stepping in for Nathan, but even if Nathan can stay the Tigers closer, Soria will be setting him up without much of a challenge from Joba Chamberlain or Al Alburquerque.

14. Will Smith
15. Aaron Sanchez
16. J.P. Howell
17. Kelvin Herrera
18. Aaron Loup

LOOGYs are valuable fantasy players for only one reason: holds. Given a hold opportunity, a pitcher can tally one by recording a single out. Lefty specialists will be an asset only if they are consistently used in that role, given the fact that they will not log many innings. Aaron Loup, J.P. Howell, and Will Smith should be used to get tough lefties out on a consistent basis.

19. Casey Fien
20. Bryan Shaw
21. Ken Giles
22. Jumbo Diaz
23. Tanner Scheppers
24. Danny Farquhar

If you checked out our Top 15 Middle Relievers post, you may be surprised to see Ken Giles low on this list. While Giles may be a good fantasy gamble in the saves category if you think Jonathan Papelbon’s Philly days are numbered, Giles’s production in the holds category is much more limited. Even if Pap is the Phillies closer all year, it is likely that the team loses close to 100 games. On a team that bad, holds are harder to come by. That said, when the game is on the line in the 7th or 8th, expect Giles to grab some holds.

25. Pedro Strop
26. Mike Dunn
27. Brad Zeigler
28. Jonathan Broxton
29. Edward Mujica
30. Sergio Romo

Given the number of relievers on each team, these lower-ranked players could still yield significant dividends if they find themselves in advantageous roles. Guys like Pedro Strop and Jonathan Broxton will always make their owners anxious, but when you throw 100 MPH, managers will give you a shot in big spots.

2015 AL East preview

March 6, 2015

Baltimore Orioles — It’s a bullpen bonanza in Baltimore, as the Orioles return seven pitchers from last year, a group that combined to throw 80% of the innings out of the ‘pen last year. Zach Britton saved 37 games last season after winning the job and will be back as the closer again in 2015. Darren O’Day should get the bulk of the eighth-inning chances with Andrew Miller in New York, with Tommy Hunter and lefty Brian Matusz competing for the seventh inning.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Britton | O’Day | Hunter.
Holds candidates: O’Day, Matusz.

Boston Red Sox — Despite heading towards 40, Koji Uehara got a two-year, $18 million deal from the Sox to remain their closer. Behind the seemingly ageless Uehara are Junichi Tazawa and Edward Mujica, who will compete for the eighth inning. Mujica got most of the save opportunities at the end of the season when the Sox shut Uehara down, and has more closing experience than Tazawa. 2011 draftee Matt Barnes might be relevant this year if Boston chooses to move him to the bullpen, and Alexi Ogando is also around.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Uehara | Mujica | Tazawa.
Holds candidates: Tazawa, Craig Breslow.

New York Yankees — With David Robertson departed to the AL Central, the Yankees went out and got Andrew Miller. However, despite a $36 million deal, Miller isn’t the team’s closer . . . at least not yet. He’s in a battle for the job with Dellin Betances, who impressed last year with a 1.40 ERA, setting the Yankee record for strikeouts by a reliever with 135. Betances has terrific stuff and is probably the better pitcher, but it’s possible that Joe Girardi uses him more strategically, in the highest-leverage spots. Girardi could even platoon the two based on matchups. Former Brave David Carpenter projects to be the seventh-inning guy.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Betances | Miller | Carpenter.
Holds candidates: Carpenter, Adam Warren.

Tampa Bay Rays — Joe Maddon is gone, which perhaps means a more stable bullpen in 2015. Jake McGee will lead that group when he returns from elbow surgery, as he impressed as the closer last year when he finally got the role for good. Grant Balfour struggled mightily last season but still wants the closer job. He’ll have to compete with newly-acquired Kelvin Jepsen and Ernesto Frieri, as well as Brad Boxberger, who had a strong 2014. In addition, Jeff Beliveau had 28 strikeouts in 24 innings last season, and might be the only lefty on the team’s Opening Day roster.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Balfour | Boxberger | Jepsen.
Holds candidates: Boxberger, Beliveau.

Toronto Blue Jays — With Casey Janssen no longer the Jays’ closer, Brett Cecil and Aaron Sanchez are the top candidates for the job, but John Gibbons isn’t committing to either man yet. For now, we think Cecil has the edge because Sanchez could still snag a spot in the rotation, but it’s worth noting that Cecil was scratched from Friday’s spring training game with soreness in his shoulder. Aaron Loup and Todd Redmond are likely to pitch middle relief in front of the eventual closer, with Steve Delabar also in play.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Cecil | Sanchez | Loup.
Holds candidates: Loup, Redmond.

Sean Doolittle off DL, Uehara and Holland return

September 13, 2014

Oakland A’s – Closer Sean Doolittle returned from the DL yesterday.  Manager Bob Melvin said that everyone will return to their normal roles so it sounds like Doolittle will resume closing games immediately.

Updated hierarchy: Doolittle | O’Flaherty | Cook.

Boston Red Sox — Edward Mujica recorded another save on Friday night.  Meanwhile, Koji Uehara returned to throw a 1-2-3 8th inning.  It was Uehara’s first clean inning in almost a month.  Uehara will likely need a few more outings like that before he sees some save chances so Mujica should remain the closer for now.

Updated hierarchy: Mujica | Uehara | Tazawa.

Kansas City Royals — Greg Holland returned to the mound last night for the first time since September 3rd.  It was not a save situation but Holland did strike out the side.  Barring any setbacks with Holland’s triceps, he should immediately return to closing games.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

Tampa Bay Rays — Grant Balfour pitched a perfect 9th inning last night to record his first save since July 1st.  Jake McGee threw a perfect 8th inning and should continue to see the majority of save chances.  However, with Joel Peralta giving up 5 runs in his past two outings, Balfour could see more time in the later innings.

Updated hierarchy: McGee | Boxberger | Balfour.

San Diego Padres — Kevin Quackenbush picked up his third save of the season yesterday.  Benoit still wants to pitch again this season and he is scheduled to throw a bullpen on Sunday.

Hierarchy remains: Benoit | Quackenbush | Thayer.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Koji Uehara/Junichi Tazawa, Boston Red Sox – Edward Mujica has pitched three days in a row.
2. Jonathan Broxton, Milwaukee Brewers – K-Rod has appeared in four straight games.
3. Kevin Quackenbush, San Diego Padres – Quack got the save last night and Benoit is not expected to return until next week at the earliest.