Holds are a notoriously difficult category to predict due to the number of variables involved. Relievers who rack up a ton of holds are often solid relievers on good teams who come in ahead of strong closers in the 7th and 8th innings. Good closers will prevent very talented relievers from taking over the 9th inning duties, leaving these fantasy studs perfectly positioned to rack up holds every night. Additionally, being on good teams simply provides more hold opportunities because these teams are more often ahead in the late innings. Because it is difficult to predict injuries and changes in the hierarchy before the season starts (that’s why we are here!), the following rankings are those pitchers most likely to get a lot of holds over the course of the season. There is also value added to guys who are going to be guaranteed to get some saves due to a closer injury to start the season.
1. Wade Davis
2. Andrew Miller
3. Jordan Walden
4. Jason Grilli
5. Tyler Clippard
6. Jake Petricka
7. Tony Watson
With the exception of Clippard, who will at least begin the season as Oakland’s closer with Sean Doolittle injured, this group represents the cream of the set-up man crop. Each of these players will set-up elite closers and reap the benefits of numerous hold opportunities. Their stock will be further bolstered by their stability in their roles. If they out-grow their set-up role, they will trade hold opportunities for save opportunities.
8. Joel Peralta
9. Brad Boxberger
10. Casey Janssen
11. Darren O’Day
12. Jenrry Mejia
13. Joakim Soria
Peralta and Mejia will begin the season in the closer spot, but their real value will be piling up holds once Kenley Jansen and Bobby Parnell return from injury. The early-season saves will be a nice bonus. Joakim Soria will get holds for as long as Joe Nathan can resist imploding this season. Again, Soria’s biggest upside will be stepping in for Nathan, but even if Nathan can stay the Tigers closer, Soria will be setting him up without much of a challenge from Joba Chamberlain or Al Alburquerque.
14. Will Smith
15. Aaron Sanchez
16. J.P. Howell
17. Kelvin Herrera
18. Aaron Loup
LOOGYs are valuable fantasy players for only one reason: holds. Given a hold opportunity, a pitcher can tally one by recording a single out. Lefty specialists will be an asset only if they are consistently used in that role, given the fact that they will not log many innings. Aaron Loup, J.P. Howell, and Will Smith should be used to get tough lefties out on a consistent basis.
19. Casey Fien
20. Bryan Shaw
21. Ken Giles
22. Jumbo Diaz
23. Tanner Scheppers
24. Danny Farquhar
If you checked out our Top 15 Middle Relievers post, you may be surprised to see Ken Giles low on this list. While Giles may be a good fantasy gamble in the saves category if you think Jonathan Papelbon’s Philly days are numbered, Giles’s production in the holds category is much more limited. Even if Pap is the Phillies closer all year, it is likely that the team loses close to 100 games. On a team that bad, holds are harder to come by. That said, when the game is on the line in the 7th or 8th, expect Giles to grab some holds.
25. Pedro Strop
26. Mike Dunn
27. Brad Zeigler
28. Jonathan Broxton
29. Edward Mujica
30. Sergio Romo
Given the number of relievers on each team, these lower-ranked players could still yield significant dividends if they find themselves in advantageous roles. Guys like Pedro Strop and Jonathan Broxton will always make their owners anxious, but when you throw 100 MPH, managers will give you a shot in big spots.
