2018 NL West Preview

February 28, 2018

Arizona Diamondbacks – Fernando Rodney somehow recorded 39 saves for the Diamondbacks last year, but he’ll be shooting arrows in Minnesota this year. That leaves the ninth inning in limbo, with three arms in line for the closer’s role. Archie Bradley was the team’s best reliever last season, but Arizona may want the flexibility to use him in any key situation, regardless of inning. Two newcomers will battle Bradley for the job. Newly acquired Brad Boxberger has experience closing in the majors, while Yoshihisa Hirano is a veteran closer from Japan who has saved 156 games since 2010. We think Bradley is the best bet for the job, but be prepared for the dreaded asterisk to remain as the season gets going.

Starting 2018 hierarchy: Bradley | Boxberger | Hirano.
Holds candidates: Boxberger, Hirano, Neftali Feliz.

Colorado Rockies – The Rockies have the most expensive bullpen in baseball after they signed Wade Davis to a three-year, $52 million contract. They also snagged righty Bryan Shaw in the offseason and re-signed lefty Jake McGee to hefty contracts, and we’ll see if the Rockies get the bang for their buck that they expect. Those three guys are the key arms, but Adam Ottavino and Mike Dunn will also be in the mix for some holds during the season.

Starting 2018 hierarchy: Davis | Shaw | McGee.
Holds candidates: Shaw, McGee, Ottavino, Dunn.

Los Angeles Dodgers – The reigning National League champions will enter 2018 with perhaps the game’s most dominant closer in Kenley Jansen. The Dodgers did lose a valuable setup man, however, as Brandon Morrow moved on to close for the Cubs. That means the Dodgers will look to an assortment of options to get the ball to Jansen. Josh Fields is back and figures to be one of the top contenders to pitch the eighth along with Pedro Baez, who is hoping to rebound after a disastrous end to 2017. Don’t sleep on lefty Scott Alexander, acquired via trade from the Royals, who posted an impressive ground ball rate of 73.8% last year. Lefty Tony Cingrani will also be in the mix for holds after joining the Dodgers for last year’s postseason push.

Starting 2018 hierarchy: Jansen | Fields | Alexander.
Holds candidates: Fields, Alexander, Baez, Cingrani.

San Diego Padres – The Padres are set at closer with All-Star lefty Brad Hand, though he may not be exclusively deployed in the ninth. Behind Hand, the Padres have plenty of options, with Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen the guys to likely start as the key setup men for manager Andy Green. Keep an eye on Japanese submariner Kazuhisa Makita, whose unique delivery and 80 MPH fastball will be debuting in the majors this year.

Starting 2018 hierarchy: Hand | Yates | Stammen.
Holds candidates: Yates, Stammen, Makita, Phil Maton.

San Francisco Giants — The Giants bullpen, plagued by injuries last year, hopes it can remain healthy in 2018. Mark Melancon will start the season as closer, with Sam Dyson and lefty Tony Watson serving as the primary setup men. Watson is more reliable than Dyson, though Dyson somehow converted 14 of 17 save chances with the Giants last year. Will Smith is also expected to be ready for Opening Day after missing 2017 due to Tommy John surgery, and his return will give Bruce Bochy some flexibility in the late innings with how he deploys his top lefties.

Starting 2018 hierarchy: Melancon | Watson | Dyson.
Holds candidates: Watson, Dyson, Smith, Hunter Strickland.

 

Brad Ziegler healthy and available again

September 19, 2017

Boston Red Sox – After Doug Fister only managed to get six outs, the Red Sox emptied their bullpen amidst a slugfest against the Orioles. The game went to extras, and after the Sox took the lead in the 11th, Carson Smith earned his first save of the season. Smith was the 10th Boston pitcher of the game and is unlikely to get any additional save chances down the stretch.

Hierarchy remains: Kimbrel | Reed | Kelly.

Miami Marlins – Before Monday night’s game, the Marlins said that Brad Ziegler was available to pitch, having apparently recovered from a nagging back injury. But the team wouldn’t need him, as they ran out to a huge lead against the Mets, allowing Vance Worley to pitch the final three innings and earn his first save of the year. Worley does not figure into the usual late inning plans in Miami.

Hierarchy remains: Ziegler | Barraclough | Steckenrider.

San Diego Padres – While the Padres remain hopeful that Phil Maton can be the team’s future closer, he hasn’t pitched in many high-leverage spots lately. Instead, Craig Stammen and Buddy Baumann have been sharing the 7th inning, bridging the gap between the starters and set-up man Kirby Yates. If you’re in a super-deep league and are looking for holds, we’re guessing these guys are available.

Updated hierarchy: Hand | Yates | Stammen.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today
1. Brad Brach – Zach Britton has gone back to back games (2.1 IP).
2. Joe Kelly – Craig Kimbrel and Addison Reed have both pitched in four of five.

Tomorrow
1. Brad Brach/Mychal Givens/Darren O’Day – See above. Britton, Brach, Givens, and O’Day have all gone in back to back games, so monitor who is used tonight to see who will be available tomorrow.
2. Addison Reed/Joe Kelly – See above. Monitor tonight’s usage to see who will be available tomorrow.
3. Chris Hatcher/Santiago Casilla – If Blake Treinen and Chris Hatcher go tonight, it’ll be three straight. Monitor usage to see who will be available tomorrow.
4. Dellin Betances/David Robertson – Aroldis Chapman pitched 1.2 innings last night, and Dellin Betances has gone in back to back games. Monitor usage to see who will be available tomorrow.
5. Kirby Yates/Craig Stammen/Buddy Baumann – Brad Hand, Kirby Yates, and Craig Stammen have all gone back to back. Monitor usage to see who will be available tomorrow.

Luke Gregerson confirmed as Astros closer

March 31, 2015

Houston Astros – Luke Gregerson will close for the Astros to start the season, manager AJ Hinch said this afternoon. Gregerson was the frontrunner for the job after signing a 3-year, $18.5 million contract with the Astros in the offseason, and solidified his status with a strong spring. Chad Qualls and Pat Neshek also had excellent springs, and will fill the 7th and 8th innings. It isn’t apparent who would fill in on nights when Gregerson is unavailable, but we’ll give the edge to Qualls, who closed last season.

Hierarchy remains: Gregerson | Qualls | Neshek.

Chicago White Sox – Jake Petricka has been battling forearm and elbow soreness for the past week and will open the season on the disabled list. Petricka was the heavy favorite to set up for David Robertson (who was battling a sore forearm himself earlier this spring), and the White Sox may have to mix and match until his return. Zach Putnam has had an awful spring, though he’s come around as of late; given his brief experience in the closer role, we’ll move him to first in line by default. Javy Guerra and Zach Duke will likely see their roles increase as well.

Updated hierarchy: Robertson | Putnam | Guerra.

Washington Nationals – The injury bug has been buzzing around the Nats clubhouse all spring, and their top two relievers have gotten bit. Drew Storen left a game yesterday after popping a blister on his foot. He doesn’t expect to miss any regular season time, but Casey Janssen might — the set-up man has been battling shoulder tendonitis. Craig Stammen stands to inherit 8th inning duties if Janssen is out.

Hierarchy remains: Storen | Janssen | Stammen.

Los Angeles Dodgers – We’re continuing to look for some clarity in the Los Angeles bullpen, but it seems more and more likely that Don Mattingly will head into the regular season with a closer-by-committee. The two leading candidates for the job, Joel Peralta (5.68 ERA in 6.1 spring IPs) and Chris Hatcher (7.36 ERA in 7.1 IPs) have done little to distinguish themselves; meanwhile, once-darkhorse Sergio Santos had a rough outing the other day and saw his own spring ERA jump to 4.70. Santos is still an interesting candidate, as he’s got the past experience and is consistently missing bats (10 Ks in 7.2 IPs). But given his contract status, he’s not even a lock to make the team. Those in deep leagues or leagues with holds may want to look at the only reliever who has been dominant for the Dodgers this spring: lefty Paco Rodriguez (9.1 IPs, 0.00 ERA, 0.32 WHIP, 12 Ks, 0 BBs). Given J.P. Howell’s pedestrian spring (6.2 IPs, 8.10 ERA), Rodriguez could jump him as the go-to lefty in the Dodgers pen, and potentially snag an occasional save when matchups are right.

Hierarchy remains: Peralta* | Hatcher | Santos.
*closer-by-committee

2015 NL East Preview

March 9, 2015

Atlanta Braves – In 2012, Craig Kimbrel reached a milestone that no pitcher had ever reached before, striking out more than 50 percent (116 out of 231) of the batters that he faced. Kid K hasn’t managed that feat in the two years since; he’s merely settled for being arguably the best closer in baseball. Behind him, though, are a lot of question marks, as Kimbrel will be flanked by as many as three aging former stoppers — Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson, and Jose Veras all joined the roster in the offseason. (Incidentally, so did Matt Capps, but he already got cut.) Grilli and Johnson seem likely to make the team — Johnson has impressed in camp — as do Michael Kohn and James Russell, younger arms who have been steady in their relatively short careers. Luis Avilan also returns, and will definitely be a factor if he’s closer to his 2013 self; less so if the 2014 version shows up.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Kimbrel | Grilli | Johnson.
Holds candidates: Grilli | Johnson.

Miami Marlins – Steve Cishek is worried that he might get fined a few times for taking too long between pitches, but he’s still a very solid option for saves, especially for those who like closers without much competition. Mike Dunn is a perfectly respectable set-up man, but the lefty doesn’t have overpowering stuff. AJ Ramos, meanwhile, still walks too many guys. We do like this bullpen overall in terms of depth — they added Aaron Crow in the offseason, and Carter Capps has electric stuff, though he hasn’t put it all together yet. So if they can score a few runs, they should be able to bridge nicely to Cishek, who could match the 39-save performance he had in 2014.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Cishek | Dunn | Ramos.
Holds candidates: Dunn, Ramos.

New York Mets – The Mets bullpen, an abject disaster for the first half of 2014 (Jose Valverde, Kyle Farnsworth, et al.), steadied itself down the stretch and could potentially be a team strength in 2015. They don’t have much in the way of lefthanded relief — Josh Edgin is the only reasonable option at the moment — but with Bobby Parnell returning to join Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia, and Vic Black, the Mets have got four hard-throwing righties who will jockey to hold down the late innings. Mejia will start the year as closer, though Terry Collins turned some heads when he said that the closer job is Parnell’s to lose once he returns. This strikes us as a bit odd, since Mejia had a solid, albeit up-and-down year (56.1 IPs, 2.72 ERA, 60 Ks, 21 BBs, 4 HRs) after being moved to the bullpen in May, and amassed almost as many saves (28) as Parnell has accumulated in his entire career (36). So we figure that Mejia holds the job into May and beyond if he starts out hot; otherwise, Parnell will get it back. Jeurys Familia, meanwhile, continues to look like the closer of the future.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Mejia | Familia | Black.
Holds candidates: Familia, Edgin.

Philadelphia Phillies – Count us among the folks who can’t wait for Jonathan Papelbon to get his hostile, crotch-grabbing self traded, which would open the door for youngster Ken Giles to ascend to the role he’s destined for. Giles put up a 1.18 ERA last year along with 64 strikeouts in just 45.2 innings. If you’re in a league that drafts any middle relievers at all, he should be one of the first off the board. Jake Diekman is the other power arm in the bullpen; the lefty should gobble up any holds that don’t go Giles’s way.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Papelbon | Giles | Diekman.
Holds candidates: Giles, Diekman.

Washington Nationals – With Rafael Soriano gone and Tyler Clippard shipped off to Oakland, Drew Storen finally has the closer job all to himself. Aside from a bumpy 2013, Storen has excelled thanks in part to a unique delivery that sees him turn his back to the hitter and then throw entirely across his body. (Related: We miss you, Paul Edinger.) Casey Janssen signed a 1-year, $3.5 million contract in the offseason and will get any save chances when Storen needs a night off. We’ll give the second in line spot to Craig Stammen for now, based on experience alone, though we do like Aaron Barrett to crack the hierarchy at some point.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Storen | Janssen | Stammen.
Holds candidates: Janssen | Barrett.

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Rafael Betancourt returns as Rockies closer; Drew Storen impressive again

August 18, 2013

Colorado Rockies — Rafael Betancourt returned and pitched the ninth inning in a four-run loss; Walt Weiss is on the record saying that the next save chance will belong to the big righthander. Hierarchy change: Rafael Betancourt to Closer, Rex Brothers to Set-up, Matt Belisle to 2nd in line. 

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
COLRafael BetancourtRex BrothersMatt BelisleRafael Betancourt8/18/13

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Washington Nationals — After Rafael Soriano blew his second save in two days, starter Dan Haren wound up collecting his first career save in the 15th inning, earning the game ball for his trouble. Also for the second straight game, Craig Stammen was held back and used in a longer relief role, while Drew Storen again looked very impressive in set-up, striking out the side in the seventh inning. Hierarchy change: Drew Storen to 2nd in line, replacing Craig Stammen.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
WASRafael SorianoTyler ClippardDrew StorenRafael Soriano8/18/13

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Minnesota Twins — Casey Fien has an astronomical 23.63 ERA over his last three appearances. Hierarchy change: Jared Burton to Set-up, Casey Fien to 2nd in line.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
MINGlen PerkinsJared BurtonCasey FienGlen Perkins8/18/13

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Seattle Mariners — Oliver Perez allowed six runs, four hits, and two walks in Saturday’s eighth; his struggles continue. No hierarchy change.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
SEADanny FarquharYoervis MedinaCharlie FurbushDanny Farquhar8/18/13

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New York Mets — David Aardsma finally got into a game, but it was to pitch the fourth and fifth innings after the starter got hurt. This may have just been because he was the best-rested option, but we’ll continue to watch whether he has truly fallen out of favor at the back end of the Mets’ bullpen. No hierarchy change.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
NYMLaTroy HawkinsGonzalez GermenDavid AardsmaBobby Parnell8/18/13
Bobby Parnell (DL)

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VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Jose Veras, Detroit Tigers — Joaquin Benoit has pitched in three of the last four games.
2. Drew Storen, Washington Nationals — Rafael Soriano and Tyler Clippard have each pitched in four of the last five games, and Craig Stammen threw three innings last night. Unless the Nationals are planning to bring Dan Haren out again, Storen might get a chance in the ninth sooner than anyone expected.