Weekly Hot Seat Update: April 24, 2015

This week, we’ll spotlight the Pirates and check in on the four committees on our depth chart.

Pittsburgh Pirates

We’ve already written a lot about Mark Melancon’s velocity. Now, we’ll look at the arms behind him. But before we dive in, let’s state one thing up front so the rest of this section doesn’t get misconstrued: Tony Watson is the handcuff. He’s the guy you want. But for two reasons, we’re still going to spend a little time talking about the Pirates.

-Lefthandedness: Watson wouldn’t be the first set-up man who gets passed over just because he happens to be a lefty. But he’s got a few things going for him, chief among them that he’s faced a greater percent of righthanded batters every year since 2012 — this year, 29 of the 33 hitters that he’s retired have been righthanded. This makes him the farthest thing from a LOOGY this side of Aroldis Chapman. Also in Watson’s favor is that he’s not the only lefty in the bullpen — the Pirates can also look to Antonio Bastardo if they want to play matchups.

-Clint Hurdle: In 2012, Jason Grilli was one of the best set-up men in baseball. Pitching the 8th inning ahead of Joel Hanrahan, he put up 90 strikeouts in 58.2 innings, a 2.91 ERA, and 32 holds. And every time Hanrahan needed a night off, Grilli would still pitch the 8th inning and Juan Cruz would get the save opportunity. So Clint Hurdle has pulled the “I like my 8th inning guy to stay in the 8th inning no matter what” thing before. Fortunately, he’s already looked to Watson on nights when Melancon is unavailable.

If either of these factors does end up trumping Watson’s handcuff status, there are two guys who could potentially benefits. Jared Hughes had been the most effective reliever in the Pittsburgh bullpen until Wednesday, when he gave up 2 runs without recording an out. The wild card is Arquimedes Caminero, who throws 101 mph and has 11 strikeouts in 8.2 innings so far.

Quick takes on the committees:

Dodgers: Joel Peralta probably could’ve kicked his asterisk if he’d managed to lock down a 4-out save on Thursday. Instead, he walked the first two hitters he faced and didn’t have enough to return for the 9th inning. He’s still the best guy to own until Kenley Jansen comes up, though the newly recalled Sergio Santos might be someone to watch. Yimi Garcia is also having quite a season, and his save on Friday night could be a sign of big things to come.

Yankees: Despite all the turmoil that faced Dellin Betances in the early going, he’s still got a 0.00 ERA. And since starting the year with 6 walks in 3.1 innings, Betances has looked a lot more like his former self, posting 9 strikeouts and only 1 walk and 2 hits in his past 6 innings. Betances’s resurgence is probably why Joe Girardi stubbornly refuses to declare that Andrew Miller is the full-time stopper. Despite Miller’s early-season brilliance, Betances’s rally means the lefty is probably on a short leash.

Rays: The Rays know that Brad Boxberger is far and away their best reliever. They’re just using him the way sabermetricians have been urging for years — against the strongest portion of the other team’s lineup. So look for other relievers in Tampa to get a save opportunity every other week or so, with Kevin Jepsen being the best non-Boxberger reliever to own.

Blue Jays: Despite a powerful arsenal, Miguel Castro hasn’t been generating a ton of strikeouts, managing just 7 Ks (and 4 BBs) in 9.1 innings so far. Roberto Osuna is the one with the better ratios thus far (10 Ks, 3 BBs in 9.2 innings), while Brett Cecil continues to lurk with the “experience” trump card in his back pocket. Still hard to predict what’s going to happen here, though Castro obviously remains the guy with the leg up. (Though if the Jays stay in contention, their closer at the end of the season might be more the equine type.)

Other Hot Seat notes: Fernando Rodney has put up three scoreless innings since getting wrecked in back to back games earlier this month. Just as encouraging, his control seems to have returned, as he’s posted 5 Ks and 0 BBs in that span, compared with 1 K and 4 BBs in his first four outings… Cody Allen rebounded nicely the day after his meltdown on April 20. He’s probably bought himself at least a couple more blown saves before the Indians look elsewhere… Tyler Clippard’s ratios are alarming (2 Ks and 5 BBs in 6 innings), but he’s only allowed one run so far and no one else in the A’s bullpen has looked particularly sharp… Neftali Feliz still hasn’t pitched since his 47-pitch outing on April 19, but he’d probably need to blow another save before his seat gets hot.

Miguel Castro blows save, Wade Davis replaces Holland as closer

April 19, 2015

Toronto Blue Jays – Miguel Castro blew his first save of the season yesterday.  This was the first earned run given up by Castro, who has gotten off to a good start to the season much to the delight of the scout who signed him.   Brett Cecil pitched a scoreless 10th and picked up the win after Josh Donaldson hit a walk-off homer in the bottom of the inning.  This all comes just one night after Cecil had a terrible outing, and it looked like Castro had the chance to solidify himself as the closer.  With Castro and Cecil pitching on back-to-back days, Osuna could get the call on Sunday if there is a save opportunity and further complicate things in the Blue Jays bullpen.

Hierarchy remains: *Castro | Osuna | Cecil.
*closer-by-committee

Kansas City Royals — Greg Holland has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a right pectoral strain.  The injury does not appear to be serious, but Holland will be rested for about a week.  Wade Davis will take over closing duties in his absence, with Kelvin Herrera handling the 8th inning.

Updated hierarchy: Davis | Herrera | Frasor.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Joel Peralta recorded his third save of the season last night.  Chris Hatcher got the last out of the 7th and J.P. Howell pitched the 8th.  Peralta has not given up a hit in his last four appearances and looks to be asserting himself as the primary closer until Kenley Jansen returns.

Hierarchy remains: *Peralta | Hatcher | Baez.
*closer-by-committee

New York Mets — Alex Torres came on to get the last out of the 9th inning and record his first career save.  With Jeurys Familia and Jerry Blevins getting the night off, Carlos Torres made a mess of a 4 run lead to start the 9th.  He gave up three runs and had the tying run on first base, before A. Torres struck out Christian Yelich to end the game.

Hierarchy Remains: Familia | C.Torres | Blevins.

Oakland A’s — Jesse Chavez recorded a save yesterday by pitching the last 3.2 innings after starter Jesse Hahn left with an injury.  Chavez does not factor into the A’s late inning plans but Sean Doolittle will when he returns and he is making progress.

Hierarchy remains: Clippard | O’Flaherty | Otero.

Tampa Bay Rays — Grant Balfour gave up 3 runs last night, and the Rays decided they have seen enough.  Balfour was designated for assignment after the game.

Updated hierarchy: Boxberger | Jepsen | Frieri.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays – Miguel Castro and Brett Cecil have both pitched in two straight
2. Joaquin Benoit, San Diego Padres – Craig Kimbrel has pitched on back-to-back days and three of the last four.
3. Pedro Strop/Jason Motte, Chicago Cubs – Hector Rondon blew the save yesterday and has appeared in two straight games, throwing a total of 48 pitches.  Pedro Strop has also pitched in two straight so the Cubs could go to Motte if they want to give Strop the day off as well.

Koji Uehara activated; Chris Hatcher has another bad outing

April 13, 2015

Pittsburgh Pirates – After a ridiculous spring that included a 21:1(!) K:BB ratio, Arquimedes Caminero has brought his 101-mph fastball to the 7th inning in Pittsburgh. On Sunday, he picked up his 2nd hold of the season, and he’s now totaled 2.2 scoreless to start the year.

Updated hierarchy: Melancon | Watson | Caminero.

Chicago White Sox – Zach Duke picked up his second straight 8th inning hold on Sunday. The White Sox have been wise to make good on their offseason investment (3 years, $15M), as Duke has been one of the only reliable arms in the Chicago bullpen thus far. Would-be set-up man Zach Putnam has struggled out of the gate (4 ERs in 2 innings) after struggling during the spring (9.35 ERA) and might be looking at a trip to the minors if he can’t sort things out soon.

Updated hierarchy: Robertson | Duke | Guerra.

Tampa Bay Rays – Ernesto Frieri cleaned up an 8th inning mess and then stayed on for the 9th after the Rays tacked on a run. Frieri allowed a run himself, but picked up a vulture save.

Hierarchy remains: Boxberger | Jepsen | Balfour.

Colorado Rockies – John Axford has left the Rockies for a while to be with his son, who just had surgery following a rattlesnake attack. His absence may be poorly timed for Axford owners, as LaTroy Hawkins just blew his second save in a row and remains firmly on the Hot Seat. With Axford away, Adam Ottavino and Boone Logan are the relievers who could benefit if the Rockies are looking to give Hawkins a break.

Hierarchy remains: Hawkins | Ottavino | Logan.

Seattle Mariners – Fernando Rodney had an atrocious outing on Sunday afternoon, allowing the A’s to score four runs in the bottom of the 9th inning — Yoervis Medina would eventually pick up the save in extras. Rodney also had a shaky spring, with 7 walks in 8.1 IPs, and with his control problems spilling over into the regular season, those in deeper leagues might look to stash either Medina or Danny Farquhar should Rodney end up on the Hot Seat. (He’s already pretty close.)

Hierarchy remains: Rodney | Farquhar | Medina.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Chris Hatcher had another brutal outing on Sunday, allowing 3 runs to score while only recording one out. Joel Peralta came in afterwards to lock down the 1-out save, and is now firmly in the lead in the Los Angeles committee; in fact, the way things have gone thus far, it would surprise us to see anyone other than Peralta used in the 9th going forward. We’ll hold off on lifting the asterisk for one more save, but frankly, Hatcher might not even stay in the bigs for very much longer if he keeps pitching the way he has (33.75 ERA) over the season’s first week.

Updated hierarchy: *Peralta | Hatcher | Howell.
*closer-by-committee

Boston Red Sox – Koji Uehara will come off the disabled list today and will resume closing immediately.

Updated hierarchy: Uehara | Mujica | Ogando.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Joba Chamberlain, Detroit Tigers – Joakim Soria has pitched in three straight.
2. Roman Mendez, Texas Rangers – Neftali Feliz and Shawn Tolleson have both pitched in three straight.
3. Eric O’Flaherty, Oakland A’s – Tyler Clippard has pitched in two straight and three of four, throwing 57 pitches in the process.
4. Jumbo Diaz, Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman has pitched in four of the last five games.

Weekly Hot Seat Update: April 10, 2015

April 10, 2015

After elbow injuries to Joe Nathan and Jenrry Mejia and the recent demotion of Brett Cecil, three of the shakiest closers in the game have already been replaced. Who starts the season on the hot seat? And who stands to benefit if they falter?

5. Miguel Castro
Koji Uehara‘s impending return means that we didn’t even consider Edward Mujica for this spot. Instead it goes to the putative head of the brand-new Toronto closer committee: 20-year-old future starter Castro, whose right elbow (and its single tendon) was expected to start the season at Class A Dunedin. Castro’s rapid rise makes for a great story, but if he falters, it’ll be simple for the Jays to try out fellow youngster Roberto Osuna or return to Cecil.

4. LaTroy Hawkins
The 42-year-old already has his first blown save of the season, and PECOTA predicts that he’ll give up almost as many runs this year (36) as he earns strikeouts (43). Not exactly a recipe to lower a manager’s blood pressure. Walt Weiss can turn to Adam Ottavino, John Axford, or (when he gets back to the majors) perpetual “closer of the future” Rex Brothers.

3. Jason Grilli
Stepping into Craig Kimbrel’s golden cleats is the 38-year-old Grilli, who has an extensive history of injuries, and an apparently revitalized Jim Johnson lurking behind him. The Braves will give him the first shot at the job, but they’ll move on in a hurry if he performs like he did last season in Pittsburgh.

2. Dellin Betances
Betances, one of the breakout stars of 2014, struggled all through spring training, and hasn’t been much better now that the games count. Although the righty seems to have regained his missing velocity, control problems continue to plague him. He’s already in a platoon situation with lefty Andrew Miller, who’s a real threat to take the job and make it his own.

1. Chris Hatcher
Converted catcher Hatcher got the Dodgers’ first save of the year, but he might not be in line for too many more after getting blasted in a tied ninth inning on Tuesday. Joel Peralta, Hatcher’s main competition for the job in Kenley Jansen‘s absence, may have had a rough 2014, but he’s posted a consistently above-average WHIP and K rate over the last five years — and his first two outings so far this year have been scoreless, earning him a win and a save.

Miguel Castro gets first Blue Jays save; Koji Uehara back Monday?

April 10, 2015

Toronto Blue Jays — On the day Brett Cecil was demoted from the closer job, new committee head Miguel Castro mowed down the Yankees in the ninth to earn his first career save. A righty, the 6-5 Castro retired three Yankee lefthanded batters in Stephen Drew, Didi Gregorius and Jacoby Ellsbury. Roberto Osuna, Toronto’s other 20-year-old phenom, handled his business in the sixth and seventh, and Cecil responded to his new role encouragingly, with an effective eighth.

Hierarchy remains: *Castro | Osuna | Cecil.
*closer-by-committee

Boston Red Sox — The Red Sox haven’t had a save situation yet, but fans and owners pining for the return of Koji Uehara may not have to wait much longer. Uehara has a scheduled relief outing for Single-A Greenville on Friday, and manager John Farrell said the team isn’t ruling out a possible return to the big club after just the one rehab outing. Because Uehara’s hamstring injury “wasn’t arm-related,” as Farrell put it, we’re pretty comfortable with the expectation that Uehara will be back for the team’s home opener on Monday. As a side note, current closer Edward Mujica got some work in during the 9th inning of the team’s 6-2 win over the Phillies Thursday night.

Hierarchy remains: Mujica | Ogando | Tazawa.

New York Mets — Pitching in a non-save situation Thursday, Jeurys Familia allowed two hits and a run in the ninth inning of the Mets’ 6-3 win. Manager Terry Collins said before the game Thursday that Familia would not be the team’s exclusive closer, but will be “the guy” once he “can get lefties out in certain situations.” Confusingly, Collins finished by saying, “Right now Jeurys is going to close.” In case you were wondering, lefties hit .293 against Familia last season, but the two hits he allowed Thursday were to righties (Ian Desmond and Reed Johnson). It’s safe to say Familia is still the guy until Mejia returns.

Hierarchy remains: Familia | Torres | Montero.

Los Angeles Dodgers — The Dodgers acquired righty reliever Ryan Webb from the Orioles Thursday. Webb was recently designated for assignment, but has a career 3.38 ERA and gives LA some much-needed bullpen depth. Webb has never recorded a save, but could conceivably enter a game in the late innings if Chris Hatcher or Joel Peralta falter. His situation is worth watching.

Hierarchy remains: *Hatcher | Peralta | Howell.
*closer-by-committee

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Andrew Miller, New York Yankees — Miller remains in a committee situation and could be in line for a save if the matchup against his former team, the Red Sox, is right.
2. Joel Peralta, Los Angeles Dodgers — In another committee, Chris Hatcher and Peralta have each recorded a save. Don Mattingly could turn to Peralta again in the right situation.