Joel Peralta nudges his way to the front in Los Angeles

March 26, 2015

Los Angeles Dodgers — Chris Hatcher and his Wilsonesque beard have endured some rough outings lately, pushing his spring ERA over 10. Although Hatcher is a virtual lock to make the team because he’s out of minor league options, Joel Peralta may have edged in front of him in the race to lead what appears to be a confirmed committee situation that could also include Sergio Santos, Juan Nicasio, and lefties J.P. Howell and Paco Rodriguez. As expected, Brandon League will join Kenley Jansen on the DL to start the season, and some in LA are looking Rafael Soriano’s way.

Updated hierarchy: Peralta* | Hatcher | Santos.
*closer-by-committee

Oakland A’s — A struggling Ryan Cook was sent to the minors on Tuesday to fix his mechanics. Eric O’Flaherty and Dan Otero will back up Tyler Clippard during Sean Doolittle’s absence, and young R.J. Alvarez is another intriguing option. Doolittle, meanwhile, is staying busy teaching his coaches about social media.

Updated hierarchy: Clippard | O’Flaherty | Otero.

Boston Red Sox — Koji Uehara, who turns 40 next week, might miss Opening Day with a hamstring strain. Edward Mujica would likely take the closer’s role until Uehara can get healthy, with Alexi Ogando moving ahead of Junichi Tazawa as a backup option.

Updated hierarchy: Uehara | Mujica | Ogando.

Tampa Bay Rays — Grant Balfour made his first appearance of the spring on Monday and expects to be ready for Opening Day. All three of Tampa’s current top relievers allowed a run in the game. Jake McGee is throwing curveballs again and should be back to closing in late April or early May.

Hierarchy remains: Balfour | Boxberger | Jepsen.

Toronto Blue Jays — As expected, Brett Cecil was officially named Toronto’s closer; Aaron Loup will set him up, with Steve Delabar and Miguel Castro behind them.

Hierarchy remains: Cecil | Loup | Delabar.

Colorado Rockies — Walt Weiss told reporters that Adam Ottavino will be the club’s top vulture save option when 42-year-old closer LaTroy Hawkins is fatigued, or watching Matlock reruns.

Updated hierarchy: Hawkins | Ottavino | Axford.

Cincinnati Reds — The eighth inning is wide open for the Reds, according to manager Bryan Price, who named no fewer than five possibilities for set-up work. We’ll leave things the way they are until the situation clears up, but one intriguing option Price didn’t mention is lefty Tony Cingrani, who may find a welcoming home in the bullpen.

Hierarchy remains: Chapman | Diaz | LeCure.

Chris Hatcher emerging as frontrunner for Dodgers’ closer gig

March 19, 2015

Los Angeles Dodgers – A new name has emerged in the most unsettled bullpen in the big leagues. Chris Hatcher, a former catcher (just like Kenley Jansen!) has been turning heads in camp, and some members of the media have anointed him the frontrunner for the closer job. Don Mattingly has remained quiet about bullpen roles, and we still think Joel Peralta is a very strong possibility (and his most recent outing was a good one), but beat writers tend to know best, so we’ll move him to the top of the committee for now. Another candidate to watch is former Blue Jays closer Sergio Santos. Santos wasn’t even considered a lock to make the team as recently as a few weeks ago, but a strong spring has put him in the conversation. Meanwhile, Brandon League is taking some time off due to shoulder soreness.

Updated hierarchy: *Hatcher | Peralta | Santos.
*closer-by-committee

Toronto Blue Jays – Thanks to an injury to Marcus Stroman, signs are pointing to a spot in the rotation for promising youngster Aaron Sanchez. That basically clears Brett Cecil’s path to the Opening Day closer gig.

Updated hierarchy: Cecil | Loup | Delabar.

New York Yankees – Though Joe Girardi said the closer role would be determined by a spring training competition between Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, most of the speculation was that Betances would be the guy. (Which is why we ranked him so highly on our preseason closer rankings.) We still don’t have a definitive answer, but nothing drastic has changed; Betances is still the frontrunner and likely closer for the Bombers.

Hierarchy remains: Betances | Miller | Carpenter.

Oakland A’s – Tyler Clippard has let his once-surefire gig as interim closer slip a bit, as a few tough preseason outings have brought Ryan Cook — and Eric O’Flaherty and Dan Otero — into the conversation. Sean Doolittle will start his throwing program soon, so this could just be a short-term problem for Oakland, and to be clear, we still think Clippard is the best healthy reliever to own. But the situation warrants watching in the coming weeks.

Hierarchy remains: Clippard | Cook | O’Flaherty.

Tampa Bay Rays – In the race to close games in Tampa’s sans-McGee bullpen, Grant Balfour had a few distinct advantages. He has the most experience in the role, he had expressed an interest in it, and most importantly, Kevin Cash had mentioned him as a possibility. But Balfour has missed the last few weeks of spring training following the death of his father, while Brad Boxberger has come out of the gate with three scoreless innings. With his strong start, we think Boxberger has pulled even with Balfour, and suspect the Opening Day closer will be largely determined by which player looks better over the next couple weeks.

Hierarchy remains: Balfour | Boxberger | Jepsen.

2015 Tiered Closer Rankings

The Closer Monkey contributors pooled our collective personal closer rankings together and averaged the results; below is our composite list, sorted into tiers for your drafting convenience. Enjoy!

Tier 1 – The Elite
1. Aroldis Chapman
2. Craig Kimbrel
3. Greg Holland

Analysis: Not a lot needs to be said about this trio, but we’ll gush about them a bit anyway. They’re dominant, they have high strikeout rates, and they have proven track records of success.

The “maybe we should move him to the rotation” discussion that normally follows Chapman around all spring has finally dissipated this year, and he’s ready to follow up on what many considered his best season. Kimbrel continues to do his thing (look otherworldly), while Holland is coming off a year where he actually earned a few MVP votes.

Depending on your league size, an early round pick on one of these guys might mean you can ignore closers until the very last few rounds, where you can speculate on Tier 6 guys or middle relievers and still have a solid composite bullpen.

Tier 2 – The Very Good
4. David Robertson
5. Mark Melancon
6. Dellin Betances
7. Cody Allen

Analysis: The main player to watch here is Betances, who just had one of the best seasons any reliever has ever had. His ridiculous numbers would have been enough to push him into the Elite tier, except for the fact that he hasn’t won the job yet. We think he will, though, so we’ve included him in our second tier alongside three guys who we universally like.

Robertson has yet to fully recapture his magical 2011 season, but he’ll be great on the South Side, and could log 40 saves and 100 strikeouts. Thanks to his great control, Melancon has put up 2 straight years with a sub-2 ERA and figures to get lots of chances on a solid Pirates team. And Allen emerged last year as one of the top young stoppers in baseball whose best years are ahead of him.

Tier 3 – The Reliable
8. Trevor Rosenthal
9. Koji Uehara
10. Huston Street
11. Drew Storen
12. Zach Britton
13. Kenley Jansen

Analysis: This tier contains our two favorite veterans (Uehara and Street) mixed in with some promising youngsters.

Rosenthal had some bumpy moments and an unsightly WHIP last year, but did more than enough (45 saves, 11.1 K/9) to be included here. Storen’s deceptive delivery and good control led him to a 1.12 ERA last season. And Zach Britton’s nasty sinker suggests that he’ll still be able to get outs even if he’s not striking out the world.

Finally, this tier was a good spot for Kenley Jansen, an absolutely dominant stopper on a Dodgers team that’s going to win a lot of games. But Jansen, of course, is likely to miss the first month of the season, and might need some time to get up to speed.

Tier 4 – Safe-ish
14. Steve Cishek
15. Glen Perkins
16. Hector Rondon
17. Fernando Rodney
18. Sean Doolittle
19. Jonathan Papelbon

Analysis: Save for Cishek, who is really a Tier 3/Tier 4 tweener, there are minor concerns with every player listed here, from staying healthy (Perkins, Doolittle); to inexperience (Rondon); to past volatility (Rodney); to the fact that literally no one likes you including your own fan base (Papelbon).

But it seems likely that at least four of these six players will be perfectly fine and will hold their jobs for much or all of the season. If you’re going with a cheap saves approach — minimal draft investment combined with waiver wire dominance — you might want to think about snagging someone from this tier to keep you afloat until you can accumulate enough players through free agency.

Tier 5 – Hold on for the ride
20. Santiago Casilla
21. Joaquin Benoit
22. Jake McGee
23. Francisco Rodriguez
24. Addison Reed

Analysis: We’ve now reached the point where every remaining player has a moderate-to-major concern. It’s also where we’ll kick up our analysis a bit, since these players are always the most interesting.

Casilla is okay, but he’s far from dominant and will probably be on a short leash, since Sergio Romo has ample experience in the closer role. Benoit still hasn’t pitched in a spring training game, and can’t go three days in a row even when perfectly healthy. Jake McGee is great, but he’s coming off elbow surgery and is targeting a late April return. Even if he gets up to speed quickly, Brad Boxberger or Grant Balfour could be locked in to the role by then.

Francisco Rodriguez started hot last year, but tailed off significantly down the stretch and still hasn’t reported to camp. Finally, Addison Reed is just kinda bad, plus he’s dealing with shoulder soreness. Pick your poison here, as there are probably only two 30+ save guys in this fivesome.

Tier 6 – Yikes
25. Neftali Feliz
26. Joe Nathan
27. Luke Gregerson
28. Jenrry Mejia
29. Brett Cecil
30. LaTroy Hawkins

Analysis: This tier is where fantasy seasons are sometimes made, as there’s always a closer or two at the bottom of everyone’s list who goes on to defy expectations and have a great year. Obviously, it’s just hard to figure out who that player is.

Our bottom six starts with Neftali Feliz, whose velocity vanished last season. Though he’s put in a lot of work in the offseason, he also talked about not needing — or seemingly even wanting — to raise his strikeout rate. Yikes.

Joe Nathan is 40 years old, and had a 4.81 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 2014. Yikes.

Luke Gregerson was solid last year, but his numbers were a bit inflated by a lucky BABIP. Additionally, he plays for the terrible Astros and hasn’t even won the job yet. Yikes.

Jenrry Mejia also doesn’t have the gig for sure yet; in fact, Terry Collins has said that he needs to be “lights out” to prevent Bobby Parnell from taking over upon his return. Yikes.

Brett Cecil is the presumed frontrunner in Toronto, but megaprospect Aaron Sanchez is breathing down his neck and the Jays are clearly unsettled about their closer situation, having kicked the tires on Jonathan Papelbon. Yikes.

And finally, though we adore LaTroy Hawkins as a human being, nobody at Closer Monkey thinks he can pull off last year’s magic trick, where he saved 23 games and had a 3.31 ERA, despite the fact that he only struck out 5.3 hitters per 9 innings, and played half his games in Coors Field. Yeah. Yikes.

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2015 AL East preview

March 6, 2015

Baltimore Orioles — It’s a bullpen bonanza in Baltimore, as the Orioles return seven pitchers from last year, a group that combined to throw 80% of the innings out of the ‘pen last year. Zach Britton saved 37 games last season after winning the job and will be back as the closer again in 2015. Darren O’Day should get the bulk of the eighth-inning chances with Andrew Miller in New York, with Tommy Hunter and lefty Brian Matusz competing for the seventh inning.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Britton | O’Day | Hunter.
Holds candidates: O’Day, Matusz.

Boston Red Sox — Despite heading towards 40, Koji Uehara got a two-year, $18 million deal from the Sox to remain their closer. Behind the seemingly ageless Uehara are Junichi Tazawa and Edward Mujica, who will compete for the eighth inning. Mujica got most of the save opportunities at the end of the season when the Sox shut Uehara down, and has more closing experience than Tazawa. 2011 draftee Matt Barnes might be relevant this year if Boston chooses to move him to the bullpen, and Alexi Ogando is also around.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Uehara | Mujica | Tazawa.
Holds candidates: Tazawa, Craig Breslow.

New York Yankees — With David Robertson departed to the AL Central, the Yankees went out and got Andrew Miller. However, despite a $36 million deal, Miller isn’t the team’s closer . . . at least not yet. He’s in a battle for the job with Dellin Betances, who impressed last year with a 1.40 ERA, setting the Yankee record for strikeouts by a reliever with 135. Betances has terrific stuff and is probably the better pitcher, but it’s possible that Joe Girardi uses him more strategically, in the highest-leverage spots. Girardi could even platoon the two based on matchups. Former Brave David Carpenter projects to be the seventh-inning guy.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Betances | Miller | Carpenter.
Holds candidates: Carpenter, Adam Warren.

Tampa Bay Rays — Joe Maddon is gone, which perhaps means a more stable bullpen in 2015. Jake McGee will lead that group when he returns from elbow surgery, as he impressed as the closer last year when he finally got the role for good. Grant Balfour struggled mightily last season but still wants the closer job. He’ll have to compete with newly-acquired Kelvin Jepsen and Ernesto Frieri, as well as Brad Boxberger, who had a strong 2014. In addition, Jeff Beliveau had 28 strikeouts in 24 innings last season, and might be the only lefty on the team’s Opening Day roster.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Balfour | Boxberger | Jepsen.
Holds candidates: Boxberger, Beliveau.

Toronto Blue Jays — With Casey Janssen no longer the Jays’ closer, Brett Cecil and Aaron Sanchez are the top candidates for the job, but John Gibbons isn’t committing to either man yet. For now, we think Cecil has the edge because Sanchez could still snag a spot in the rotation, but it’s worth noting that Cecil was scratched from Friday’s spring training game with soreness in his shoulder. Aaron Loup and Todd Redmond are likely to pitch middle relief in front of the eventual closer, with Steve Delabar also in play.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Cecil | Sanchez | Loup.
Holds candidates: Loup, Redmond.

White Sox may be returning to closer committee

August 28, 2014

Chicago White Sox — One day after Jake Petricka’s second straight blown save sent him to the Hot Seat, Robin Ventura tried to squeeze a two-inning save out of Javy Guerra. When Guerra hit a batter with his 33rd pitch, putting two men on with two out, it was Zach Putnam summoned for the one-out, three-pitch save. Ventura didn’t say much after the game — the link to his postgame news conference almost immediately sent viewers to a test pattern — but earlier Wednesday, he put his struggling bullpen on notice that results will be required of anyone expecting to return next year. We won’t elevate Putnam or anyone else to the top spot without more info, but we will give Petricka his closer committee asterisk back. If Ventura does make a change, we expect the chances to be split among Putnam, Guerra, Petricka, and Matt Lindstrom, in that pecking order.

Updated hierarchy: Petricka | Putnam | Guerra.

Oakland A’s — Eric O’Flaherty gave up a solo home run, but earned his first career save on Wednesday. He remains atop the Oakland closer committee. Ryan Cook was used in the sixth and seventh; Dan Otero pitched in the seventh and eighth.

Hierarchy remains: O’Flaherty | Cook | Gregerson.

Milwaukee Brewers — Although Jeremy Jeffress struggled in the seventh last night, the former top prospect has been getting a lot of high-leverage looks for the Brewers lately. He’s moved ahead of Brandon Kintzler, whose strikeout rate is alarmingly low (4.36 K/9).

Updated hierarchy: Rodriguez | Smith | Jeffress.

Houston Astros — Chad Qualls learned on Wednesday afternoon that he would be staying in Houston; unfortunately, he blew the save that night with another awful outing against Oakland. The A’s have been responsible for three of Qualls’s four blown saves and 11 of his 18 earned runs. In non-Oakland games, Qualls has a 1.52 ERA.

Hierarchy remains: Qualls | Fields | Sipp.

Toronto Blue Jays — Chalk another one up for the Vulture Save Watch. We thought it would be Brett Cecil if the Jays needed a save on Wednesday night, and sure enough, he got the last out of the eighth, then came back out and struck out the side in an impressive ninth.

Hierarchy remains: Janssen | Loup | Cecil.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Luke Gregerson, Oakland A’s — Eric O’Flaherty got the save on Wednesday and hasn’t been used on back-to-back days since May 2013. Because he threw only eight pitches, now might be the time to take the leap — but if it isn’t, Luke Gregerson is the best A’s reliever who didn’t pitch yesterday.