Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: American League Closers

July 13, 2012

SPECIAL UPDATE: TRADE DEADLINE BUY/SELL (PART 2 OF 2)

Glossary
BUY+: This player has a large chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance of  losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TLDR Version
BUY+: Aaron Crow, Glen Perkins.
BUY: Greg Holland, Jared Burton, Grant Balfour, Brandon League, Charlie Furbush
SELL: Addison Reed, Tom Wilhelmsen
SELL+: Jonathan Broxton, Matt Capps

Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles bullpen has been spectacular, top to bottom, thus far this year.  Jim Johnson and Pedro Strop have been solid in their roles, and the Orioles are unlikely to seek any help at the deadline.  They’re leading the race for the second Wild Card and aren’t going to be selling, either.  BUY/SELL: None.
Boston Red Sox – Alfredo Aceves and Vicente Padilla are both playing out 1-year contracts, but it’s unlikely the Red Sox will be selling at the deadline– despite being tied for last place in the AL East, they’re still well within range of a Wild Card spot.  Despite some early struggles, Aceves and Padilla have been solid at the back end of the Sox rotation, and an acquisition is unlikely to affect the immediate hierarchy.  Daniel Bard, returned to a relief role, could potentially shake things up if they struggle, however.  BUY/SELL: None.
New York Yankees – Rafael Soriano has been rock solid since taking over the 9th inning, while David Robertson has continued to be spectacular in any role other than closer.  Any acquisitions the Yankees make are unlikely to affect their hierarchy.  BUY/SELL: None.
Tampa Bay Rays – Fernando Rodney’s dominance has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, and with Kyle Farnsworth recently returned from the DL, the Rays are unlikely to add any bullpen arms.  BUY/SELL: None.
Toronto Blue Jays – Whether the Blue Jays are buyers or sellers has been a topic of debate, with GM Alex Anthopolous saying earlier this month that they were buyers, while Buster Olney reported a few days later that other executives were expecting the Jays to sell.  But even if they do sell, Casey Janssen has a 2-year deal and would likely be sticking around.  And if they buy, they’ll probably look somewhere other than the bullpen, as they’ve got Sergio Santos returning soon.  BUY/SELL: None. 

Chicago White Sox – The White Sox are buying, and that’s potentially bad news for their solid, but young bullpen.  They could look to acquire a veteran, and even though Addison Reed has only blown one save in 14 chances, the acquisition of a Huston Street or a Jonathan Broxton could mean Reed is pushed back to set-up duty.  BUY: None.  SELL: Addison Reed.
Cleveland Indians – The trade rumors surrounding the Indians have generally been centered on hitting, as they seem unlikely to be shopping for any relief help at the deadline.  BUY/SELL: None.
Detroit Tigers – The Tigers are looking to buy, but like the Indians, they seem to be in the market for a bat, or possibly a starting pitcher.  Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit have been solid at the back-end of the Tigers’ pen, and their hierarchy is unlikely to be affected by any deals.  BUY/SELL: None.
Kansas City Royals – Jonathan Broxton is likely to move by the break, and will likely see his value drop if he goes to a contender that plugs him in to a set-up role.  Certain to benefit, however, is Aaron Crow, or possibly Greg Holland, who would inherit the closer job if Broxton moves.  BUY+: Aaron Crow.  BUY: Greg Holland.  SELL+: Jonathan Broxton.
Minnesota Twins – Once Matt Capps returns from the DL, the Twins will look to deal him.  With his paltry strikeout rates, it’s unlikely that he would land anywhere where he could close, and his value will almost certainly plummet.  Glen Perkins, who just signed a three-year extension, won’t be going anywhere and stands to continue getting saves.  BUY+: Glen Perkins.  BUY: Jared Burton.  SELL+: Matt Capps.

Los Angeles Angels – The Angels have the best closer/set-up combo in the majors with Ernesto Frieri and Scott Downs.  They’re leading the Wild Card race so are obviously not selling, and any acquisitions they make are unlikely to affect their hierarchy.  BUY/SELL: None.
Oakland A’s – Ryan Cook isn’t going anywhere, but the A’s are actively looking to move Grant Balfour.  If Balfour catches on with the right team– like the Mets, or possibly the Cardinals– he could be in the mix for saves.  BUY: Grant Balfour.  SELL: None. 
Seattle Mariners – The Mariners are actively shopping Brandon League, but Tom Wilhelmsen’s name hasn’t surfaced in any reported trade talks thus far.  Like most closers for bottom feeders, Wilhelmsen’s value will either drop sharply (if he’s traded to a team that uses him in the 8th inning) or rise slightly (if he’s able to close for a contender), making him a somewhat scary fantasy proposition.  If League is dealt, his value will probably drop or remain the same, but it could skyrocket if he remains and Wilhelmsen is shipped off.  A deep sleeper for saves is Charlie Furbush, who has only given up 2 runs in his last 23.2 innings and could inherit the job if the Mariners are able to move both Wilhelmsen and League.  BUY: Brandon League, Charlie Furbush.  SELL: Tom Wilhelmsen.
Texas Rangers – With the second-best record in all of baseball, the Rangers will be buyers at the trade deadline.  They might look to add a set-up man, as Mike Adams has been somewhat shaky this season, but no pick-up will supplant Joe Nathan at closer.  BUY/SELL: None.

 

Aaron Crow now the set-up man in Kansas City

June 28, 2012

San Francisco Giants – Sergio Romo picked up his fourth save of the season on Wednesday.  Both Santiago Casilla and Jeremy Affeldt had pitched the night before, and in 4 of the last 5.  No hierarchy change.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedSF |Casilla |Affeldt |Romo |Wilson |6/28/12 |Wilson(DL) |

 
Kansas City Royals – Aaron Crow finished the 8th inning yesterday, keeping the game tied and eventually earning a win when the Royals scored in the bottom half.  On Tuesday, he pitched the 8th inning with the Royals ahead by 2 runs.  Greg Holland has struggled over the past two weeks, allowing 11 baserunners in his last 3.1 innings.  Hierarchy change: Aaron Crow to Set-up, Greg Holland to 2nd in line. 

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedKC |Broxton |Crow |Holland |Broxton |6/28/12 |Soria(DL) |

 
VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. David Robertson, New York Yankees – Rafael Soriano threw 30 pitches in earning the save last night, and has now pitched in four of the last five games.

Glen Perkins picks up a save; Ernesto Frieri now the full-time closer

June 21, 2012

Minnesota Twins – With Matt Capps dealing with an inflamed right shoulder, Glen Perkins picked up the save on Wednesday, pitching a clean inning.  Capps is expected back in a day or two.  No hierarchy change. 

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedMIN |Capps |Perkins |Burton |Capps |6/21/12

 
Los Angeles Angels – Scott Downs pitched the 8th inning last night, earning his 12th hold of the year.  But Ernesto Frieri has now gotten 8 of the last 11 save opportunities for the Angels, and since Downs’s return from a minor injury to his side, the lefty has been used exclusively as a set-up man.  The platoon is over; it’s now Frieri’s job for good.  No hierarchy change.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedLAA |Frieri |Downs |Walden |Walden |6/21/12

 
VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Joaquin Benoit, Detroit Tigers – As expected, Jose Valverde’s injury isn’t particularly serious, but he will be out through the weekend.  Joaquin Benoit will get save chances until he returns.
2. Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins – If Matt Capps still can’t go today, Perkins could get another save opp.

Greg Holland to the DL; Cordero earns save for Blue Jays

April 23, 2012

Boston Red Sox – After Daniel Bard’s turn in the rotation was rained out on Sunday night, Bobby Valentine announced he will use Bard to bolster the back end of the team’s bullpen — but also vowed that Bard will still make his next scheduled start on Friday. Another debacle like Saturday’s, however, and Bard might wrest the closer job from Alfredo Aceves. No hierarchy change.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedBOS |Aceves |Morales |Tazawa |Bailey |4/23/12

 
Kansas City Royals- Greg Holland was placed on the 15-day disabled list Saturday with a “stress reaction” in his ribs. Although the ensuing bone scan showed no fracture, he might be three weeks away from returning to the Royals pen. Lefty José Mijares will likely move to 2nd in line, but young fireballer Jeremy Jeffress could move up quickly if he can harness his stuff. Hierarchy change: Aaron Crow to Set-up, José Mijares to 2nd in Line.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedKC |Broxton |Crow |Mijares |Broxton |4/23/12 |Soria(DL) |Holland(DL) |

  
Toronto Blue Jays- With Sergio Santos on the DL, new closer Francisco Cordero picked up a somewhat rocky save in his first day on the job. No hierarchy change.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedTOR |Cordero |Janssen |Frasor |Santos |4/23/12 |Santos (DL) |

  
VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Casey Janssen or Jason Frasor, Toronto Blue Jays– Francisco Cordero has pitched in two of the last three games, and if the Blue Jays want to limit his workload, another pitcher might get a shot to close on Monday.

New closer in TB; Red Sox bullpen a mess

Boston Red Sox- Alfredo Aceves and Mark Melancon both blew save chances in Sunday’s Red Sox game, with manager Bobby Valentine saying after the game that there were lots of options on the table, including possibly bringing Daniel Bard back to the bullpen.  Franklin Morales, who had a strong outing Sunday, could also be a candidate to close.  Hierarchy change: Franklin Morales to 2nd in line, replacing Vicente Padilla.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedBOS |Aceves |Melancon |Morales |Bailey |4/9/12

 
Arizona Diamondbacks- Bryan Shaw picked up the save on Sunday, as JJ Putz had pitched two consecutive days prior.  No hierarchy change.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedARI |Putz |Hernandez |Saito |Putz |4/9/12

 
Tampa Bay Rays- Fernando Rodney closed out Sunday’s game against the Yankees, notching his second save in as many days.  It seems that Joel Peralta’s leash was at short as it could be, as Rodney will close until Kyle Farnsworth returns from the DL.  Hierarchy change: Fernando Rodney to Closer, Joel Peralta to Set-up.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedTB |Rodney |Peralta |McGee |Farnsworth |4/9/12 |Farnswor(DL)|

 
VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Kerry Wood- Carlos Marmol has pitched two days in a row, and in three of the last four.
Vinnie Pestano/Rafael Perez- Chris Perez has pitched two days in a row, and in three of the last four.  So, too, has Pestano, however, so Rafael Perez is also a candidate for a vulture save opp.
Jon Rauch- Frank Francisco has pitched two days in a row, and in three of the last four.
Greg Holland- Jonathon Broxton has pitched two days in a row.

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