Trevor Rosenthal hurting; Greg Holland’s struggles continue

June 16, 2015

St. Louis Cardinals – Up one run in the 9th, Kevin Siegrist slammed the door for the Cards, picking up his second save of the year. After the game, Mike Matheny told reporters that closer Trevor Rosenthal has been experiencing “tightness” in his throwing arm. While Rosenthal has not been placed on the DL and remains the closer in St. Louis, owners desperate for saves may want to pick up Siegrist, who has been phenomenal this year.

Hierarchy remains: Rosenthal | Siegrist | Maness.

Kansas City Royals – Royals closer Greg Holland made a mess of the 9th inning against the Brewers last night, giving up four hits and three runs without recording an out before getting yanked. Uber-handcuff Wade Davis bailed out Holland for his 8th save of the year. Royals manager Ned Yost blamed himself for Holland’s struggles, noting that he has not used Holland in six games. For his part, Holland said he has never felt better, though he’s still got some really ugly ratios (13 Ks vs 10 BBs) this season.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds placed Tony Cingrani on the 15-day DL on Monday. The left-hander has struggled recently and an MRI confirmed swelling in his pitching shoulder. Fellow left-hander Manny Parra will replace Cingrani in our hierarchy. While a LOOGY, Parra has a sterling 0.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the season. Also expect Ryan Mattheus to pick up some more holds.

Updated hierarchy: Chapman | Hoover | Parra.

Miami Marlins – Carter Capps has been used in very high-leverage situations recently, including pitching the 8th inning in last night’s one-run game against the Yankees, striking out the side and picking up his third hold of the year. With the Marlins mixing and matching in the late innings, we think Capps has the best chance of running with the set-up man job. Sam Dyson, meanwhile, has been used more sparingly of late, and will bow out of our hierarchy for now.

Updated hierarchy: Ramos | Capps | Dunn.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Bobby Parnell, New York Mets – Jeurys Familia has thrown 87 pitches in the last 5 days, including 29 in a mess of an outing last night.
2. Keone Kela/Tanner Scheppers, Texas Rangers – Shawn Tolleson has pitched in the last 3 out of 4 games for the Rangers, including 2 straight.
3. Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays bullpen has been worked-over recently, with Osuna avoiding the brunt of the workload.
4. Kevin Siegrist, St. Louis Cardinals – Siegrist is the best bet for another save chance if Trevor Rosenthal needs another day off.

Daniel Hudson snags a save; Sean Doolittle moved to 60-day DL

June 15, 2015

Tampa Bay Rays – Kevin Jepsen picked up another save for the Rays on Sunday. Brad Boxberger had thrown 28 pitches Saturday, while Jake McGee had pitched in three of the last four. Still, the way this bullpen is managed, any of these three guys could get a save on any given night at this point.

Hierarchy remains: *Boxberger | McGee | Jepsen.
* = closer-by-committee

Boston Red Sox – Matt Barnes was sent back to the minors to work on his stuff; Alexi Ogando will see more hold opportunities as a result. Barnes will be joined in AAA by the possible closer of the future for the Red Sox, Pat Light, who has shot through the minors after being converted to a reliever this year.

Updated hierarchy: Uehara | Tazawa | Ogando.

Oakland Athletics – The A’s don’t expect Sean Doolittle to return any time soon; they just transferred him to the 60-day DL to clear a roster spot.

Hierarchy remains: Clippard | Scribner | O’Flaherty.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Daniel Hudson picked up the save on Sunday, as Arizona gave Brad Ziegler the day off after the closer had pitched on two straight. It’s interesting that this opportunity went to Hudson rather than Addison Reed, who has been decent since moving out of the closer role and hadn’t pitched in five days. But if Chip Hale was playing the hot hand, it certainly makes sense — Hudson has only allowed one earned run in his past 13 innings. We’ll monitor usage going forward to see if Hudson has surpassed Reed for good.

Hierarchy remains: Ziegler | Reed | Hudson.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Pedro Strop, Chicago Cubs – The Cubs are still in all-out committee mode (Hector Rondon got the 8th in a tie game yesterday; Jason Motte got the 9th), but if Rondon isn’t used for the save chance tonight, it’ll almost certainly be Strop, as Motte is likely unavailable after pitching in three straight.
2. Hansel Robles, New York Mets – Jeurys Familia was used across multiple innings again yesterday, and has now thrown 58 pitches over the last four days. Bobby Parnell, meanwhile, probably won’t go in a third straight game this soon after his activation. That likely leaves the Mets in mix-and-match mode tonight, with Robles being the most likely candidate to snag a save chance.
3. Joaquin Benoit, San Diego Padres – Craig Kimbrel has pitched in two straight and three of four (51 total pitches).
4. Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays – Anything goes in the Tampa bullpen.

Jake McGee records another save for Rays, Mets struggle without Familia

June 14, 2015

Tampa Bay Rays — Jake McGee recorded his third save of the season on Saturday after Brad Boxberger pitched the 8th inning.  Boxberger replaced starter Chris Archer after he gave up a leadoff walk to start the 8th.  After giving up the tying homerun to the first batter he faced, Boxberger was able to get out of the inning without anymore runs.  Kevin Cash had good things to say about him since he went through the heart of the White Sox order to finish the 8th and helped them win the game.  This looks like a full committee right now, with the Rays using Boxberger in big spots before the 9th if they need to.  We will leave Boxberger as head of the committee for now, but if McGee gets the next save opportunity, he would likely move to the top.

Hierarchy remains: *Boxberger | McGee | Jepsen.

New York Mets — With Jeurys Familia away from the team on paternity leave, the Mets were unable to hold a late inning lead.  Manager Terry Collins mentioned Bobby Parnell as an option to close while Familia is away, but instead used the righty to get the last out of the 8th inning.  Collins went with rookie Hansel Robles to start the 9th inning.   He got two outs but also gave up a run and left two runners on.  Lefty Alex Torres came on to try and get Freddie Freeman to end the game but instead gave up the game tying run.  Familia is clearly the closer when he comes back, but we will see if Collins actually gives Parnell a chance or if he goes back to Robles when Familia is not available.

Updated hierarchy: Familia | Parnell | Robles.

Atlanta Braves — Williams Perez picked up his first career save in extra innings last night.  Jim Johnson and Jason Grilli each pitched a scoreless inning earlier in the game, and Grilli ended up with the win.

Hierarchy remains: Grilli | Johnson | Cunniff.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Joe Smith, Los Angeles Angels – Huston Street has pitched in three straight
2. Bobby Parnell/Hansel Robles, New York Mets – Jeurys Familia is on paternity leave so Terry Collins could use former closer Bobby Parnell or give rookie Hansel Robles another chance on Sunday.
3. Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays – Brett Cecil has pitched in two straight, including a 30 pitch outing on Friday.

A farewell to (both) arms: Pat Venditte hits the DL

June 13, 2015

Oakland Athletics — Nothing (green and) gold can stay. Switch-pitching Pat Venditte, who started his career with 5.2 scoreless innings, became the latest Oakland player to hit the disabled list, with a frayed right labrum. And no, everyone, he can’t just pitch with his left arm, not if he wants his shoulder to heal right. We’ll toss Eric O’Flaherty in the hierarchy for now, based solely on his history as an above-average reliever, but Billy Beane is probably taking applications if you’re interested.

Updated hierarchy: Clippard | Scribner | O’Flaherty.

New York Mets — Terry Collins apparently bought Bobby Parnell’s explanation for minor league hitters teeing off on him at Binghamton and St. Lucie (.373 average against, one walk per inning); he plans to use Parnell if a save situation arises while Jeurys tends to his Familia on paternity leave.

Updated hierarchy: Familia | Parnell | C.Torres.

New York Yankees — Joe Girardi clarified that lefthander Justin Wilson will move into the primary set-up role now that Dellin Betances has become the Yankees’ closer. Chris Martin could get an occasional look in the eighth too, depending on matchups. Brian Cashman has said that Andrew Miller could be out for a month.

Updated hierarchy: Betances | Wilson | Martin.

Cleveland Indians — Nick Hagadone’s recent usage puts him back behind Bryan Shaw in the Indians’ hierarchy.

Updated hierarchy: Allen | McAllister | Shaw.

Tampa Bay Rays — As foretold by the Vulture Save Watch, Jake McGee was summoned for the save on Friday night, allowing Brad Boxberger to take a night off.

Hierarchy remains: *Boxberger | McGee | Jepsen.

Boston Red Sox — Matt Barnes and Junichi Tazawa had a Friday evening to forget. The Red Sox were up four runs when Barnes began the seventh. He gave up three straight hits, Tazawa yielded four hits and a baserunner via error, and Tommy Layne finished up by surrendering a home run, giving Toronto a seventh-inning cycle and nine straight runs scored. It’s unlikely that this debacle will change Boston’s late-innings approach, but we couldn’t let it pass without comment.

Hierarchy remains: Uehara | Tazawa | Barnes.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Bobby Parnell, New York Mets — As noted above, the Mets are ready to toss Parnell back into a save situation if needed. Jeurys Familia threw 25 pitches on Friday and could become a father any day.
2. Joe Smith, Los Angeles Angels — Huston Street has pitched back-to-back (45 total pitches).
3. Jason Motte/Pedro Strop, Chicago Cubs — Hector Rondon took an extra-inning loss on Friday and needed 25 pitches to do it. Rondon has pitched in two straight games, and his position isn’t secure right now.
4. Aaron Loup/Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays — It took the Jays 34 games to get Friday’s save, and it took Brett Cecil 30 pitches to earn it. Osuna threw 24 pitches himself, and Loup has pitched in three of four games, so the Jays are probably hoping lightning doesn’t strike in two straight games.
5. Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati Reds — Aroldis Chapman (who has been linked to a possible trade to Washington) has pitched in two of three, and four of six. J.J. Hoover pitched two innings (30 pitches) on Friday.
6. Yimi Garcia, Los Angeles Dodgers — Kenley Jansen has pitched in three of four games. So has Garcia, but he threw only seven pitches on Friday; Jansen needed almost thrice as many.

Weekly Hot Seat Update: June 12, 2015

A few quick lists this week, comprising all 30 of the top guys in our depth chart:

Top three closers at the moment — Zach Britton; David Robertson; Drew Storen
These guys have high strikeout rates, low walk rates, and there’s nothing in their advanced stats to suggest trouble ahead. Britton‘s GB% is second among all qualified relievers (69.8%).

Knocking on that door — Dellin Betances; Kenley Jansen
With Andrew Miller out for what could be an extended period of time, Betances will get the chance to prove that his impressive skills can play in the ninth inning. Jansen has looked good in his nine appearances, but the .071 BABIP is, er, unsustainable.

Pitching worse than their numbers — John Axford; Tyler Clippard; Greg Holland; Brad Ziegler
These four guys have combined for 37 saves with pretty decent ERAs, but each of them have worrying low K rates (mitigated some for Ziegler and Axford due to their high groundout rates) and are letting too many guys get on base. As we told you a few weeks ago, Holland‘s surface success is not supported by his underlying metrics, and we don’t recommend waiting until the two reach an equilibrium.

Probably better than you think — Luke Gregerson; Jason Grilli; Cody Allen; Hector Rondon; Brett Cecil; Brad Boxberger
The first three guys are raking in saves pretty well, and though their ERAs are higher than you’d like, the fundamentals look pretty solid. Rondon isn’t pitching lights-out or anything, but he doesn’t deserve to be ousted for a committee either. He and Clippard are nearly twins (same IP, same K rate), but Rondon has a much lower walk rate and has given up hits 5% more often on batted balls. And it’s not the fault of Cecil or Boxberger that they’re not getting any save opportunities lately (or, in Cecil‘s case, at all, ever); they’re doing most of what they’re being asked to do.

Guys with 13+ saves who are likely to regress — Joakim Soria; Mark Melancon; Santiago Casilla; Trevor Rosenthal; Francisco Rodriguez; Koji Uehara
If you have a strong bullpen, you might consider moving any of these guys in a trade. Play up those gaudy save numbers and don’t mention that Rosenthal and Soria have astronomically high strand rates that are keeping their ERAs artificially low, that K-Rod is boasting a sub-.220 BABIP for the second straight year, or that Koji Uehara is two months older than Allen Iverson. Sell high, friends.

Big names pitching well (enough) — Glen Perkins; Jonathan Papelbon; Aroldis Chapman; Craig Kimbrel; Huston Street
Some exposure to age and regression here — and there’s no telling where Papelbon might end up — but overall, these guys are getting it done.

Why you don’t have to pay for saves — Carson Smith; Shawn Tolleson; A.J. Ramos; Jeurys Familia
None of these guys were their team’s top choice coming into spring training, but through combinations of injuries and ineffectiveness, they’re closers now — and paying dividends for the owners fortunate enough to grab them first. We’ll be sure to keep you ahead of the curve on the next guys to make this list — maybe Evan Scribner, Wade Davis, or Tony Watson.