July 15, 2021
Special Update (Part 1 of 2 — check back later for the National League)
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Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
TL;DR – AL relievers
BUY+: Joely Rodriguez.
BUY: Cole Sulser, Gregory Soto, Alex Colome, Mike Mayers.
SELL: Paul Fry, Matt Barnes, Jordan Romano, Taylor Rogers, Hansel Robles, Ryan Pressly, Raisel Iglesias, Kendall Graveman.
SELL+: Lou Trivino, Ian Kennedy.
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AL East
Baltimore Orioles — Baltimore will once again be selling at the trade deadline and the list of candidates to be dealt includes Paul Fry, who has struggled lately as the Orioles’ closer. If Fry does get traded, he certainly won’t be closing for his new team. That would pave the way for Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott to complete for any remaining save chances, unless one of them also gets traded. BUY: Cole Sulser; SELL: Paul Fry.
Boston Red Sox — The first-place Red Sox boast a reliable one-two punch at the back end of their bullpen in closer Matt Barnes and setup man Adam Ottavino. In fact, Boston just signed Barnes to a two-year contract extension. Although this would ordinarily augur Barnes’s job security, there’s been some speculation that the pay raise could ease tensions in the event that Boston brings back old friend Craig Kimbrel. SELL: Matt Barnes.
New York Yankees — The Yankees’ ninth-inning troubles have been well-documented lately, with both Aroldis Chapman and Chad Green struggling. It’s likely that Chapman will remain as the team’s full-time closer, but New York could certainly bolster their bullpen to make a push for the playoffs. It’s also possible the Yankees try to deal Chapman if the team falters over the next two weeks. We’ll wait and see. BUY/SELL: None.
Tampa Bay Rays — If the Rays, who are in a tight battle with Boston at the top of the AL East standings, add anyone to their bullpen, it’ll be just another guy with equal odds to close, open, and pitch the sixth inning. BUY/SELL: None.
Toronto Blue Jays — The Jays have been buyers so far, adding bullpen arms like Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards, but how they finish July will determine whether they make a bigger splash with an established closer. If they go that route, then Jordan Romano’s value would drop. We’ll put a light sell on Romano. SELL: Jordan Romano.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox — The White Sox have an eight-game lead in the AL Central and are only one game back of the best record in the AL. They could look to add some bullpen arms at the deadline, but Liam Hendriks, fresh off an All-Star game appearance where he didn’t know his mic was live, is their unquestioned closer. BUY/SELL: None.
Cleveland Indians — Cleveland is hanging around in the wild-card picture, but it’s unlikely that any deadline deals will alter their current bullpen setup. James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase are both young arms that aren’t likely to be traded and they should continue to split save chances in the second half. BUY/SELL: None.
Detroit Tigers — The Tigers had a slightly better first half of the season than expected, as they are percentage points ahead of the Twins for third in the division. They’re still not in contention for a playoff spot, though, so it seems like it would make sense for them to give their lone All-Star representative, Gregory Soto, a longer look at closing in the second half of the season. We’ll put a slight buy on Soto as he could pull away from the committee and see more save chances the rest of the way. BUY: Gregory Soto.
Kansas City Royals — The Royals are in last place and have not seen many saves. Greg Holland and Josh Staumont each have five, while Scott Barlow has four. Even if KC deals the veteran Holland, it’s not clear that they would move away from a committee approach, so there isn’t a ton of value to speculate on here. BUY/SELL: None.
Minnesota Twins — The Twins have been one of the biggest disappointments of the season and are likely to be sellers at the deadline. The Twins are currently using a committee of Taylor Rogers and Hansel Robles to close out games, but both are candidates to be traded before the deadline. If both do move, Alex Colome, whom the Twins signed in the offseason to close, could find his way back to the job even though he hasn’t pitched well enough to deserve it. We will put a slight buy on Colome, and a slight sell on Rogers and Robles, since it’s unlikely they’ll see save chances if traded to contenders. BUY: Alex Colome; SELL: Taylor Rogers, Hansel Robles.
AL West
Houston Astros — The conventional wisdom has long been that Houston will add bullpen depth behind the reliable Ryan Pressly before the deadline, taking another team’s closer (Kendall Graveman? Raisel Iglesias?) to bolster their own eighth-inning options. But as the end of July draws nearer, an even splashier option has gained traction — Craig Kimbrel. It seems almost certain that the Astros will make a move, but only Kimbrel would be likely to displace Pressly. SELL: Ryan Pressly.
Los Angeles Angels — Although LA isn’t quite out of the playoff chase — especially with Anthony Rendon, Justin Upton, and Mike Trout expected back from injury soon — Raisel Iglesias’s looming free agency means that he could be on his way out of Anaheim for the right price. Iglesias has good odds to close if he does move, but if a contender grabs him, he’d likely end up in a setup role. BUY: Mike Mayers; SELL: Raisel Iglesias.
Oakland A’s — Another team tied closely to Craig Kimbrel has been Oakland, which sits in the second wild card slot and a few games behind Houston in the divisional race. Even a lesser acquisition like Richard Rodriguez could bump Lou Trivino out of the ninth, which is not an indictment of his thus-far solid performance. SELL+: Lou Trivino.
Seattle Mariners — Kendall Graveman, a converted starter who has overcome Tommy John surgery to put up lights-out numbers this season from the bullpen, is the epitome of deadline trade bait. If Graveman does get dealt, expect a committee of mediocrities in his place that probably won’t be worth speculating on. SELL+: Kendall Graveman.
Texas Rangers — The Rangers are hopelessly adrift, and Ian Kennedy has a reasonable salary and an expiring contract. There aren’t a lot of teams that would slot Kennedy into the ninth, but he could be an attractive middle-innings option virtually anywhere. We think Joely Rodriguez would have a good shot at closing if Kennedy is traded. BUY+: Joely Rodriguez; SELL+: Ian Kennedy.
