July 16, 2021
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Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
TL;DR – NL relievers
BUY+: David Bednar, Anthony Bender.
BUY: Noe Ramirez, Tejay Antone, Andrew Chafin.
SELL: Tyler Rogers, Richard Rodriguez, Ranger Suarez, Brad Hand.
SELL+: Joakim Soria, Heath Hembree, Yimi Garcia.
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NL East
Atlanta Braves – As the deadline approaches, the Braves find themselves at a crossroads. They’re only a few games out of first place in a weak division that they figured to have a good shot at winning, but they’re a game below .500 and just lost their star player, Ronald Acuna, for the season. We figure this puts them firmly in “do nothing” mode at the deadline, especially since they’ve got closer Will Smith signed for another year.
BUY/SELL: None.
Miami Marlins – Yimi Garcia has performed well enough that a contender might be willing to part with a low-level prospect in exchange for his services for the season’s final two months. But he hasn’t been good enough to displace virtually any team’s closer at this point. This means his value is likely to drop off a cliff, while Anthony Bender is the best bet to be elevated in his place.
BUY+: Anthony Bender, SELL+: Yimi Garcia.
New York Mets – Despite a slew of injuries, the Mets find themselves in first place, and they seem relatively happy with Edwin Diaz’s performance to this point, despite some shaky outings just before the break. While they may add some bullpen help, Diaz is unlikely to be displaced.
BUY/SELL: None.
Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies are ostensibly buyers at the deadline, with the bullpen being a place they can definitely look to improve. Ranger Suarez recently ascended to the top of this committee, but he could be displaced if they were to add a big name like Craig Kimbrel, or even a smaller one like Richard Rodriguez.
SELL: Ranger Suarez.
Washington Nationals – The Nationals face a brutal stretch of games to start their second half, and unless they find themselves in competition two weeks from now, that makes Brad Hand a prime trade candidate. With how weak this division is, though, the Nats could easily decide to make a run. We’ll put a light sell on Hand; watch to see how the team performs and he could be on the move in a hurry.
SELL: Brad Hand.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs – The Cubs haven’t been shy about wanting to trade Craig Kimbrel, with the Astros, Athletics and, more recently, the Red Sox named as possible landing places. Wherever Kimbrel ends up, he will likely remain as a closer so his value won’t change much. Andrew Chafin is most likely to benefit from a Kimbrel trade, but Ryan Tepera and Rex Brothers are also candidates to take over the Cubs job assuming that none of them are traded themselves. With all 3 likely to become free agents after the season, the closers job may go to whoever is left.
BUY: Andrew Chafin.
Cincinnati Reds – Decision day is coming for the Reds, who find themselves 3.5 games out of a wild card spot, and 4 games behind Milwaukee for the division lead. A hot start to the second half of the season could see them become heavy buyers at the trade deadline. A losing streak could see them sell anything they can. Regardless of whether they buy or sell, Heath Hembree and Brad Brach are likely to lose a lot of value. Either the Reds bring in help for their bullpen (which is among the worst in the majors right now), or Hembree and Brach are seen as expendable trade targets. One name to watch is Tejay Antone, who was pitching well until hitting the IL last month, Antone is scheduled to return in late July, and may find that his competition for the closers job has already moved on.
BUY: Tejay Antone; SELL+: Heath Hembree.
Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers have had one of the most consistent bullpens over the last few years, led by Josh Hader. They were so confident in the back end, they felt safe trading away J.P. Feyereisen. Milwaukee will probably be buyers at the deadline, but the bullpen isn’t likely to change much at all, so while you should absolutely want Josh Hader on your team, his value isn’t changing because of any trades.
BUY/SELL: None.
Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates, perpetually in year 2 of a 5 year rebuild, will be sellers at the deadline again. Their most valuable asset is Richard Rodriguez, who has been a solid closer all year for the Pirates. He has a couple years of arbitration left, but that shouldn’t deter the Pirates form moving him, as they aren’t likely to be contenders in 2022 either. Rodriguez isn’t likely to be a closer on any of the contenders, so his value will take a hit depending on his landing spot. If Rodriguez goes, David Bedner is the first choice to get save chances. Bedner has been a steady hand in the set up role since taking over for Kyle Crick, and makes for a good speculative add.
BUY+: David Bedner; SELL: Richard Rodriguez.
St. Louis Cardinals – Alex Reyes and his 18% walk rate has somehow managed to dance through the raindrops without getting wet, and with team control through 2023 he isn’t likely to be traded. In fact the entire St. Louis Hierarchy is just starting to hit arbitration, so the Cardinals will probably stay put as far as their bullpen is concerned. If there is a shakeup it would likely come from Reyes’ peripheral numbers catching up with him, as having more walks than all but 2 of the starting pitchers on your team seems unsustainable. We will keep an eye on Reyes in the second half, but don’t expect the Cardinals to be major players at the trade deadline.
BUY/SELL: None.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers – It’s business as usual in LA with Kenley Jansen firmly holding down the closer’s role with 21 saves, a 1.24 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. Blake Treinen is one of the league’s steadiest setup men and should continue to see a large amount of hold opportunities and some save chances if Jansen is unavailable. The Dodgers could make a trade to bolster the bullpen, but it’s unlikely anyone would supplant Jansen.
BUY/SELL: None.
San Diego Padres – Baseball president A.J. Preller has been aggressive in the trade market and will probably continue to be before the deadline, but bullpen is not among the team’s top needs. Closer Mark Melancon has been solid, nailing down 27 saves to the tune of a 2.04 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He’s surrounded by other top late-inning arms in Emilio Pagan, Drew Pomeranz (IL), Craig Stammen, Tim Hill and Austin Adams, all who have ERAs below 3.20.
BUY/SELL: None.
San Francisco Giants – The Giants might be baseball’s most surprising team, as they have the league’s best record in what could be its most top-heavy division, so they will likely be buyers. But will a new closer be part of the deadline plan? Time will tell, but whoever is acquired, if anyone, will be subject to manager Gabe Kapler and his old tricks. Kapler has been employing a committee approach in the ninth inning this season with Jake McGee (2.72 ERA, 19 saves) and Tyler Rogers (1.47 ERA, 10 saves). Our bet is McGee nailing down the most saves in the second half.
SELL: Tyler Rogers.
Colorado Rockies – The Rockies will certainly be sellers at the deadline, but it’s hard to know whether they will part ways with closer Daniel Bard (4.06 ERA, 14 saves), who is under team control until 2023. Trading Bard could be unwise unless they receive a significant offer, which isn’t likely for the 36-year-old. Mychal Givens (2.92 ERA in 24.2 IP), however, is in the final year of his deal and is a likely trade candidate.
BUY/SELL: None.
Arizona Diamondbacks – The league’s worst team is 40 games under .500 at the All-Star break, so save chances are few and far between. Joakim Soria, 37, is a free agent after the season and is not part of the team’s long-term plans, so look for him to be moved. If Soria is dealt, there is no obvious healthy option to claim the role, so it’s really hard to mark anyone as a “buy.” In dynasty leagues, J.B. Bukauskas could be the long-term answer, but he has an ERA above 9.00, so we wouldn’t recommend buying him for this season. Maybe Noe Ramirez wanders into this role by default.
SELL+: Joakim Soria, BUY: Noe Ramirez
