July 13, 2012
SPECIAL UPDATE: TRADE DEADLINE BUY/SELL (PART 2 OF 2)
Glossary
BUY+: This player has a large chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
TLDR Version
BUY+: Aaron Crow, Glen Perkins.
BUY: Greg Holland, Jared Burton, Grant Balfour, Brandon League, Charlie Furbush
SELL: Addison Reed, Tom Wilhelmsen
SELL+: Jonathan Broxton, Matt Capps
Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles bullpen has been spectacular, top to bottom, thus far this year. Jim Johnson and Pedro Strop have been solid in their roles, and the Orioles are unlikely to seek any help at the deadline. They’re leading the race for the second Wild Card and aren’t going to be selling, either. BUY/SELL: None.
Boston Red Sox – Alfredo Aceves and Vicente Padilla are both playing out 1-year contracts, but it’s unlikely the Red Sox will be selling at the deadline– despite being tied for last place in the AL East, they’re still well within range of a Wild Card spot. Despite some early struggles, Aceves and Padilla have been solid at the back end of the Sox rotation, and an acquisition is unlikely to affect the immediate hierarchy. Daniel Bard, returned to a relief role, could potentially shake things up if they struggle, however. BUY/SELL: None.
New York Yankees – Rafael Soriano has been rock solid since taking over the 9th inning, while David Robertson has continued to be spectacular in any role other than closer. Any acquisitions the Yankees make are unlikely to affect their hierarchy. BUY/SELL: None.
Tampa Bay Rays – Fernando Rodney’s dominance has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, and with Kyle Farnsworth recently returned from the DL, the Rays are unlikely to add any bullpen arms. BUY/SELL: None.
Toronto Blue Jays – Whether the Blue Jays are buyers or sellers has been a topic of debate, with GM Alex Anthopolous saying earlier this month that they were buyers, while Buster Olney reported a few days later that other executives were expecting the Jays to sell. But even if they do sell, Casey Janssen has a 2-year deal and would likely be sticking around. And if they buy, they’ll probably look somewhere other than the bullpen, as they’ve got Sergio Santos returning soon. BUY/SELL: None.
Chicago White Sox – The White Sox are buying, and that’s potentially bad news for their solid, but young bullpen. They could look to acquire a veteran, and even though Addison Reed has only blown one save in 14 chances, the acquisition of a Huston Street or a Jonathan Broxton could mean Reed is pushed back to set-up duty. BUY: None. SELL: Addison Reed.
Cleveland Indians – The trade rumors surrounding the Indians have generally been centered on hitting, as they seem unlikely to be shopping for any relief help at the deadline. BUY/SELL: None.
Detroit Tigers – The Tigers are looking to buy, but like the Indians, they seem to be in the market for a bat, or possibly a starting pitcher. Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit have been solid at the back-end of the Tigers’ pen, and their hierarchy is unlikely to be affected by any deals. BUY/SELL: None.
Kansas City Royals – Jonathan Broxton is likely to move by the break, and will likely see his value drop if he goes to a contender that plugs him in to a set-up role. Certain to benefit, however, is Aaron Crow, or possibly Greg Holland, who would inherit the closer job if Broxton moves. BUY+: Aaron Crow. BUY: Greg Holland. SELL+: Jonathan Broxton.
Minnesota Twins – Once Matt Capps returns from the DL, the Twins will look to deal him. With his paltry strikeout rates, it’s unlikely that he would land anywhere where he could close, and his value will almost certainly plummet. Glen Perkins, who just signed a three-year extension, won’t be going anywhere and stands to continue getting saves. BUY+: Glen Perkins. BUY: Jared Burton. SELL+: Matt Capps.
Los Angeles Angels – The Angels have the best closer/set-up combo in the majors with Ernesto Frieri and Scott Downs. They’re leading the Wild Card race so are obviously not selling, and any acquisitions they make are unlikely to affect their hierarchy. BUY/SELL: None.
Oakland A’s – Ryan Cook isn’t going anywhere, but the A’s are actively looking to move Grant Balfour. If Balfour catches on with the right team– like the Mets, or possibly the Cardinals– he could be in the mix for saves. BUY: Grant Balfour. SELL: None.
Seattle Mariners – The Mariners are actively shopping Brandon League, but Tom Wilhelmsen’s name hasn’t surfaced in any reported trade talks thus far. Like most closers for bottom feeders, Wilhelmsen’s value will either drop sharply (if he’s traded to a team that uses him in the 8th inning) or rise slightly (if he’s able to close for a contender), making him a somewhat scary fantasy proposition. If League is dealt, his value will probably drop or remain the same, but it could skyrocket if he remains and Wilhelmsen is shipped off. A deep sleeper for saves is Charlie Furbush, who has only given up 2 runs in his last 23.2 innings and could inherit the job if the Mariners are able to move both Wilhelmsen and League. BUY: Brandon League, Charlie Furbush. SELL: Tom Wilhelmsen.
Texas Rangers – With the second-best record in all of baseball, the Rangers will be buyers at the trade deadline. They might look to add a set-up man, as Mike Adams has been somewhat shaky this season, but no pick-up will supplant Joe Nathan at closer. BUY/SELL: None.
