Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: American League

July 17, 2018

Special Update (Part 1 of 2 — check back tomorrow for the National League)

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Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR – AL relievers
BUY+: Roberto Osuna.
BUY: Zach Britton, Mychal Givens, Diego Castillo, Nate Jones, Joe Jimenez, Trevor Hildenberger.
SELL: Sergio Romo, Joakim Soria, Shane Greene, Fernando Rodney, Hector Rondon, Blake Parker.
SELL+: Ryan Tepera.
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AL East

Baltimore Orioles — The Orioles sure do stink, which means they will be sellers at the deadline. One player who will have plenty of suitors is closer Zach Britton. Among the interested teams are the Phillies, the Red Sox and the Astros, just to name a few. With so many teams interested in Britton, it makes his fantasy outlook very clouded. If he goes to the Phillies, it’s likely he closes for them so Gabe Kapler can send out Seranthony Dominguez whenever he wants. There’s also a good chance he takes the closer’s role from Hector Rondon if he goes to Houston. However, if Britton is shipped to Boston, he’ll simply be a bridge to Craig Kimbrel. Teams are also interested in Brad Brach, and he would most certainly not close if he gets traded. And if Brach stays in Baltimore, will he close for the rest of the year or will they give Mychal Givens an audition for next season? This will be a tricky situation to navigate as we get closer to the trade deadline, so buy and sell with some caution. BUY: Zach Britton, Mychal Givens.

Boston Red Sox — The Red Sox are the best team in baseball and have one of the best closers in Craig Kimbrel. Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes have held up their end of the bargain in the late innings as well, but the Sox have been linked to Zach Britton as well as Fernando Rodney. Rodney will be a nice addition to the Boston bullpen, but won’t supplant Kimbrel as closer. BUY/SELL: None.

New York Yankees –The Yankees are among the many teams interested in Zach Britton, but if they can’t get Britton they may look elsewhere for bullpen help. In any case, Aroldis Chapman’s job is safe, so any pitcher the Yankees do acquire will not close games unless Chapman gets hurt. BUY/SELL: None.

Tampa Bay Rays — The Rays have somehow hung around this year, though unfortunately for them they play in such a top-heavy American League and are doubtful to actually contend. What does this mean for their bullpen? Sergio Romo is on a one-year deal and is a potential candidate to get traded. If that’s the case, Diego Castillo will be a guy to own. Even if Romo stays, it’s worth picking up Castillo, who should get a chance to audition for a role he should have next year. BUY: Diego Castillo; SELL: Sergio Romo.

Toronto Blue Jays — The Blue Jays have already come out and said Roberto Osuna will be their closer when he returns from his suspension. Now’s the time to get whatever value you can out of Ryan Tepera, or stash Osuna if he’s still available. BUY+: Roberto Osuna. SELL+: Ryan Tepera

AL Central

Chicago White Sox — Joakim Soria has been a surprising success for the rebuilding White Sox, especially over the last two months. On the whole, he’s sporting a 2.75 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and 14 saves. He will most certainly be shopped, and wherever he ends up — unless he stays put — it’ll likely be in a setup capacity. If Soria is dealt, Jace Fry, Jeanmar Gomez and Xavier Cedeno are early candidates to lead a committee, at least until Nate Jones returns from the DL. Jones is probably the best long-term bet to close if Soria is gone, but don’t get too excited about any of these options. BUY: Nate Jones; SELL: Joakim Soria.

Cleveland Indians –After Cody Allen, the Cleveland bullpen is a bit of a mess. Relief ace Andrew Miller is still out with a knee injury (though he’s working his way back), and the rest of the cast has been mediocre or worse. Still, they’re in the driver’s seat in the AL Central, so they will certainly be looking for relief help at the deadline, though no acquisition would supplant Allen. BUY/SELL: None.

Detroit Tigers — Shane Greene is healthy again for the going-nowhere Tigers, so that means he becomes a valuable piece ahead of the deadline. His setup man, Joe Jimenez, who pitched well while he was out and is an All-Star this year, would seize the closer’s job for himself if Greene is dealt. But wherever Greene goes, he’ll set up ahead of his new team’s closer. BUY: Joe Jimenez; SELL: Shane Greene.

Kansas City Royals — After trading Kelvin Herrera, the Royals sport one of the worst bullpens in baseball. With the team 25 games out of first place, they will likely try to deal away some pieces, but any of Wily Peralta, Kevin McCarthy, Tim Hill or Brandon Maurer won’t close anywhere if traded and aren’t reliable options if they stay. Still, though, Peralta has pitched well and may seize the KC job for the rest of the year with a few more clean saves. BUY/SELL: None.

Minnesota Twins — Fernando Rodney has had another solid campaign in his age 41 season, leading some teams to inquire about his availability before the deadline. Changing teams is nothing new for Rodney, who has played for SIX different squads since 2015! Expect the Twins to trade him if the right deal comes along. In his stead, we like Trevor Hildenberger, who has been solid this season. Ryan Pressly would likely set him up as Addison Reed is shelved with a triceps injury. BUY: Trevor Hildenberger; SELL: Fernando Rodney.

AL West

Houston Astros –With a playoff birth all but locked up, the Astros are widely expected to firm up their one major weakness: the ninth inning. Although Hector Rondon has been a revelation, Houston could still look to upgrade to Raisel Iglesias, Zach Britton (whom they almost acquired last July), or even Brad Hand. Either way, Rondon is unlikely to be saving games for this team come October. SELL: Hector Rondon.

Los Angeles Angels — Wild Card hopes are slipping away from the Angels, who might be willing to sell high on any member of their relief committee, including Blake Parker, Cam Bedrosian, or Justin Anderson. This makes this a difficult situation for speculation, as any pitcher who moves will likely see fewer save chances, while the one(s) who stay will reap the benefits. We’ll put a light sell signal on Parker, because he’s the committee leader at the moment. SELL: Blake Parker.

Oakland Athletics — Baseball’s lowest payroll hasn’t kept Oakland out of the thick of the wild card race. Although the team’s rotation is a much bigger area of need than their impressive bullpen, it’s possible that they’ll double down on their strength in order to deploy relievers earlier and earlier. Either way, Blake Treinen’s role should be safe. BUY/SELL: None.

Seattle Mariners — All-Star Edwin Diaz and his league-leading 36 saves aren’t going anywhere, and with Seattle fighting for the playoffs, they aren’t likely to move any other important relievers either. BUY/SELL: None.

Texas Rangers –The Rangers are hopelessly out of contention, but closer Keone Kela is young, cheap, and good, so they’d demand a high price to trade him. Jake Diekman could be a useful lefty on a contender, but he won’t be getting save chances anywhere. BUY/SELL: None.

Arodys Vizcaino returns to DL while Tyler Clippard blows save

July 15, 2018

Atlanta Braves — The Braves tried to be careful with Arodys Vizcaino by giving him at least two days off in between each of his three appearances since returning from the DL in early July.  However, it didn’t matter as the Braves placed Vizcaino back on the DL after he was unable to get loose before the game on Saturday.  The Braves hope it is only inflammation in his pitching shoulder, but this is certainly not good news for Vizcaino.  We think this will be a committee with Dan Winkler and A.J. Minter, but since Minter has already gotten two saves in July, he could have a chance of becoming the primary closer.

Updated hierarchy: *Minter | Winkler | Carle.
* = closer-by-committee

St. Louis Cardinals — Jordan Hicks has had kind of a rough week off the mound after an article came out about how closer Bud Norris has been mercilessly riding him.  Hicks has since said that he knows Norris is only trying to help him become a better player, but it’s fair to wonder if the off-field issues led to his poor performance on Saturday.  The 21-year old came on in the 7th inning to protect a one-run lead but took the loss after allowing four earned runs and only recording one out.  In other St. Louis Cardinals news, manager Mike Matheny was fired after the game.  We will see if this change impacts the bullpen usage at all moving forward.

Hierarchy remains: Norris | Hicks | Tuivailala.

Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays went with Tyler Clippard yesterday to protect a one-run lead in the ninth inning, but he couldn’t get the job done.  Clippard gave up doubles to the first two batters he faced but was able to get the next three batters out to keep the game tied.  Clippard now has two blown saves in the ninth inning, which is as many as the rest of the Blue Jays’ relievers combined.  Seung Hwan Oh will likely see the next save chance and could establish himself as the primary closer until Roberto Osuna is eligible to return in three weeks.

Hierarchy remains: *Oh | Clippard | Axford.
* = closer-by-committee

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today
1. Jake McGee – Wade Davis and Adam Ottavino have both pitched in three straight.
2. Eric Goeddel – Kenley Jansen has pitched in three of four, throwing a total of 57 pitches.
3. Richard Rodriguez – Felipe Vazquez has pitched in three of four, including both games of the doubleheader yesterday.  Kyle Crick and Edgar Santana have both pitched in two straight and three of four.  Richard Rodriguez got a big out yesterday and could get the call in the Pirates’ overworked bullpen.

Monday
1. Jose Cano – Jose helped his son Robinson win the Home Run Derby, but then he held Yasiel Puig to zero homers a few years later.

 

Will Smith picks up a save for the Giants

June 30, 2018

San Francisco Giants – Bruce Bochy announced before Friday’s game that Sam Dyson would be unavailable for a save chance after pitching in four of the last seven games. Mark Melancon had also pitched in four of seven, so with a one-run lead and Tony Watson having already pitched, the save chance fell to Will Smith. Smith pitched a perfect 9th with two strikeouts to earn his first save of the year. Dyson has had a rough June, with a 5.11 ERA and two blown saves. Because Bochy announced before the game that Dyson would get the night off, we aren’t ready to remove him from the closer’s role, but he is on a burning hot seat with Watson, Melancon and now Smith pitching well behind him.

Hierarchy remains: Dyson | Melancon | Watson.

Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays used Seung Hwan Oh in the 8th inning of a one-run game before they turned to Tyler Clippard instead of Ryan Tepera to close out the game in the 9th. Clippard converted for his fifth save of the year. Tepera started out with six straight save conversions, but has since blown two in a row. John Gibbons said after the game that Tepera was unavailable, but this has all the looks of a committee, with Tepera, Oh and Clippard all getting saves in the past week. Whoever closes for Toronto in July, it seems that it is only a temporary role, as Toronto GM Ross Atkins announced that Roberto Osuna is the team’s closer when he returns from his suspension on August 5. Osuna is serving a 75-game suspension for a violation of MLB’s domestic violence policy, and has a court date on July 9th. Now may be the time to stash Osuna in case he was dropped when the suspension was announced.

Hierarchy remains: *Tepera | Oh | Clippard.
* = closer-by-committee

Tampa Bay Rays – Sergio Romo started the 9th inning, but after two quick outs he gave up a single and got pulled for Jose Alvarado. Alvarado got a groundout to end the game and secure his second save of the year. Tampa Bay may still use Romo as a starter, but if he isn’t opening games he will certainly continue to see save opportunities when available.

Hierarchy remains: *Romo | Alvarado | Roe.
* = closer-by-committee

Atlanta Braves – The Braves had a five-run lead going into the 9th inning, but when Luke Jackson loaded the bases with only one out, they brought in Dan Winkler. An inherited runner scored, but Winkler got out of the inning to record his first save of the year. The Braves are clearly in committee mode and used AJ Minter in the 8th inning. Both Minter and Winkler are pitching well, so any save opportunity will come down to matchups, at least until Arodys Vizcaino returns.

Hierarchy remains: *Minter | Winkler | Carle.
* = closer-by-committee

Los Angeles Dodgers — Setup man Josh Fields was placed on the 10-day DL with shoulder inflammation. Manager Dave Roberts has indicated he will use a variety of pitchers to replace Fields in the 8th. Fields’ absence isn’t likely to be very long, but while he is out we think Scott Alexander is likely to see a bump in responsibilities. Alexander has five holds in his last eight appearances, but as a lefty his situational use may cut down on clear save opportunities.

Updated hierarchy: Jansen | Goeddel | Alexander.

Baltimore Orioles – Darren O’Day has hit the 60-day DL, and may be out for the rest of the season with a hamstring injury. As we noted, this makes Brad Brach the clear frontrunner for saves when Zach Britton is inevitably traded.

Hierarchy remains: Britton | Brach | Givens.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today
1. Lou Trivino – Blake Treinen has pitched in back to back games and four of the last five.
2. Adam Ottavino – Wade Davis has gone on back-to-back days, and the only time he has pitched three n a row this year (June 5/6/7), he blew the save chance on that third day.

Tomorrow
1. Joe Kelly/Matt Barnes – Craig Kimbrel got a much needed rest last night, but if he pitches today it will be three of four with over 40 pitches in that span.
2. Steve Cishek – Brandon Morrow has pitched back-to-back games (while only throwing seven pitches), so today would be three in a row for him.
3. Kyle Crick – Today would be back-to-back and three of four for Felipe Vazquez.

Brad Boxberger’s ugly June continues

June 23, 2018

Arizona Diamondbacks — Brad Boxberger blew a save in the bottom of the 11th inning, but managed to keep the game tied. When Arizona retook the lead in the 13th, it was T.J. McFarland who closed the game out. This was McFarland’s first career save, with both Hirano and Bradley having pitched earlier in the game. McFarland is normally a long reliever for Arizona, and doesn’t usually see the late innings. Meanwhile, Boxberger has been awful in June, sporting a 9.95 ERA and as many blown saves as conversions. With Arizona holding onto first place in the NL West, they may have to look to Bradley or Hirano if Boxberger continues to struggle.

Hierarchy remains: Boxberger | Bradley | Hirano.

Atlanta Braves — The Braves turned to Dan Winkler, not Arodys Vizcaino, to protect a two-run lead in the 9th inning. Winkler had a brutal outing, giving up four runs and paving the way for Zach Britton to create his own drama (see below). After the game, Brian Snitker indicated that Vizcaino was dealing with a sore shoulder and that he hoped Vizcaino would be available today. We will monitor this to be sure it isn’t worse, but any shoulder injury is worth taking seriously.

Hierarchy remains: Vizcaino | Winkler | Minter.

Los Angeles Angels — One day after Justin Anderson’s noteworthy save, Blake Parker pitched a perfect 9th inning in a one-run game to lock down his ninth save of the year. Parker had been going through a rough stretch, so this outing was badly needed to right the ship. Meanwhile, Cam Bedrosian recorded his second straight hold, and has only given up one earned run in June. This is one of the most unpredictable bullpens in the majors, and this past week keeps that designation alive.

Updated hierarchy: *Parker | Anderson | Bedrosian
* = closer-by-committee

Kansas City Royals — For the first time since trading closer Kelvin Herrera, the Royals won a game. They took the lead in the 9th inning and called upon Tim Hill to close out the victory. He pitched a perfect inning to earn the first save of his career. Hill was set to face the bottom of the Houston lineup in a tie game, and Ned Yost liked the matchups that part of the lineup presented, as two lefties and a switch hitter were due up in the ninth for Houston. Still probably wise to stay away from this bullpen if you’re looking for saves.

Updated hierarchy: *McCarthy | Hill | Maurer.
* = closer-by-committee

Texas Rangers — Jesse Chavez was called on to protect a three-run lead in the 8th inning, and after the Rangers put up four more runs in the 9th, he stayed in to pick up his first save since April 2015. The other news for the Rangers is that Chris Martin was activated from the DL, and pitched a perfect 7th inning for his ninth hold of the year. He jumps right back into the hierarchy after Friday’s solid outing.

Updated hierarchy: Kela | Diekman | Martin.

Baltimore Orioles — Zach Britton got the call to protect a four-run lead in Friday’s 9th inning, but he had a miserable outing. Five hits and a hit batter brought in four runs, and Britton’s only recorded out was Freddie Freeman getting thrown out at the plate after a  Nick Markakis double. Darren O’Day cleaned up the mess, and the Orioles went on to win in extra innings. This was a concerning outing for fantasy owners, but this was the first time Britton had given up any runs this year. Britton is still likely to get save chances while he is in a Baltimore uniform because the Orioles are basically out of the playoff race already, and with Britton in a contract year, they will want to showcase him as a trade piece.

Hierarchy remains: Britton | Brach | O’Day. 

Toronto Blue Jays – Roberto Osuna has agreed to a 75-game suspension under the MLB domestic violence policy, which will keep him out until August 5th. It’s too soon to speculate how Toronto will handle Osuna when he finishes his suspension, but Ryan Tepera has seized control of the closer’s role for now and may keep that spot upon Osuna’s return.

Hierarchy remains: Tepera | Oh | Clippard.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. AJ Minter –Dan Winkler is coming off a 20-pitch outing and Arodys Vizcaino is dealing with a sore shoulder. If both can’t go it would be Minter to get the chance today.

Sunday:
1. Dan Winkler/AJ Minter — If Arodys Vizcaino does pitch today, he may get held out of Sunday’s contest to try and rest his shoulder.
2. Jared Hughes — If Raisel Iglesias pitches today, it will be back-to-back and three of the last four.
3. Brad Brach — Same goes for Zach Britton.

Jared Hughes picks up first Reds save with Raisel Iglesias on the DL

May 25, 2018

Cincinnati Reds — Pitching for the third straight day, Jared Hughes got the final two outs of the ninth inning to secure the first save for the Reds since Raisel Iglesias was placed on the disabled list, Hughes’s second overall. Hughes relieved Amir Garrett, who tossed 26 pitches over 1.2 innings. Garrett started the ninth with three lefties due up, but got the hook after allowing a two-run homer. Look for Michael Lorenzen to get the call should the Reds have another late-inning lead Friday, but that’s more because Hughes has been busy — he’s gone in four of the last five — and not because this is a murky committee situation. As we said before, we believe Hughes is the guy to lean on for saves with Iglesias out.

Hierarchy remains: Hughes | Garrett | Lorenzen.

Tampa Bay Rays —  It’s official. Rays manager Kevin Cash will use relievers to open each of the three games this weekend. Sergio Romo will start on Friday and Sunday, with Ryne Stanek taking the ball Saturday. The theory here is that the Orioles, like the Angels last weekend, are righty-heavy at the top of their order, so using a strong reliever to mow them down early will soften them up for the long reliever who follows. We’ll see how long this trend continues, but if Romo is starting games half of the time, he’s out of the running for vulture saves and holds. Jose Alvarado and Chaz Roe should pick up the slack. We’ll keep an eye on this fascinating strategy.

Updated hierarchy: Colome | Alvarado | Romo.

Toronto Blue Jays — The domestic assault allegations against Roberto Osuna are serious and of a physical nature, which may result in a significant ban, according to Jon Heyman. Osuna has reportedly denied causing any physical harm to the alleged victim. He continues to remain on paid administrative leave, which should be the case for the foreseeable future as the investigation continues.

Hierarchy remains: *Clippard | Tepera | Oh.
* = closer-by-committee

New York Mets — Jeurys Familia has received the dreaded “vote of confidence” — though we believe this one — from manager Mickey Callaway, who says he has no plans to remove Familia from the closer’s role. Familia blew the save Wednesday and leads the majors with four such blunders, but he also has a 2.35 ERA with 28 Ks in 23 innings, so it’s not like he’s been terrible.

Hierarchy remains: Familia | Gsellman | Ramos. 

Oakland A’s — Yusmeiro Petit threw three innings in middle relief to pick up the win Thursday, but it was Lou Trivino getting a couple outs in the eighth before handing the ball to Blake Treinen. Trivino has late-inning holds in two of the last three narrow wins for the A’s, giving him five holds on the season. Petit has been solid, but he’s being used more in middle relief lately, so we’ll give the slight edge to Trivino in the hierarchy.

Updated hierarchy: Treinen | Casilla | Trivino.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. Michael Lorenzen — As we said, Jared Hughes has pitched in three straight and four of five. Amir Garrett threw 26 pitches Thursday and has pitched in two of three.

Saturday:
1. Santiago Casilla — Entering Friday, Blake Treinen has pitched in two of three, throwing 43 pitches.
2. Jose Alvarado — Alex Colome has thrown in two straight, though he threw only two pitches on Thursday. If he has a taxing outing today, Alvarado may be the guy for saves on Saturday.