Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: American League

July 17, 2018

Special Update (Part 1 of 2 — check back tomorrow for the National League)

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Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR – AL relievers
BUY+: Roberto Osuna.
BUY: Zach Britton, Mychal Givens, Diego Castillo, Nate Jones, Joe Jimenez, Trevor Hildenberger.
SELL: Sergio Romo, Joakim Soria, Shane Greene, Fernando Rodney, Hector Rondon, Blake Parker.
SELL+: Ryan Tepera.
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AL East

Baltimore Orioles — The Orioles sure do stink, which means they will be sellers at the deadline. One player who will have plenty of suitors is closer Zach Britton. Among the interested teams are the Phillies, the Red Sox and the Astros, just to name a few. With so many teams interested in Britton, it makes his fantasy outlook very clouded. If he goes to the Phillies, it’s likely he closes for them so Gabe Kapler can send out Seranthony Dominguez whenever he wants. There’s also a good chance he takes the closer’s role from Hector Rondon if he goes to Houston. However, if Britton is shipped to Boston, he’ll simply be a bridge to Craig Kimbrel. Teams are also interested in Brad Brach, and he would most certainly not close if he gets traded. And if Brach stays in Baltimore, will he close for the rest of the year or will they give Mychal Givens an audition for next season? This will be a tricky situation to navigate as we get closer to the trade deadline, so buy and sell with some caution. BUY: Zach Britton, Mychal Givens.

Boston Red Sox — The Red Sox are the best team in baseball and have one of the best closers in Craig Kimbrel. Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes have held up their end of the bargain in the late innings as well, but the Sox have been linked to Zach Britton as well as Fernando Rodney. Rodney will be a nice addition to the Boston bullpen, but won’t supplant Kimbrel as closer. BUY/SELL: None.

New York Yankees –The Yankees are among the many teams interested in Zach Britton, but if they can’t get Britton they may look elsewhere for bullpen help. In any case, Aroldis Chapman’s job is safe, so any pitcher the Yankees do acquire will not close games unless Chapman gets hurt. BUY/SELL: None.

Tampa Bay Rays — The Rays have somehow hung around this year, though unfortunately for them they play in such a top-heavy American League and are doubtful to actually contend. What does this mean for their bullpen? Sergio Romo is on a one-year deal and is a potential candidate to get traded. If that’s the case, Diego Castillo will be a guy to own. Even if Romo stays, it’s worth picking up Castillo, who should get a chance to audition for a role he should have next year. BUY: Diego Castillo; SELL: Sergio Romo.

Toronto Blue Jays — The Blue Jays have already come out and said Roberto Osuna will be their closer when he returns from his suspension. Now’s the time to get whatever value you can out of Ryan Tepera, or stash Osuna if he’s still available. BUY+: Roberto Osuna. SELL+: Ryan Tepera

AL Central

Chicago White Sox — Joakim Soria has been a surprising success for the rebuilding White Sox, especially over the last two months. On the whole, he’s sporting a 2.75 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and 14 saves. He will most certainly be shopped, and wherever he ends up — unless he stays put — it’ll likely be in a setup capacity. If Soria is dealt, Jace Fry, Jeanmar Gomez and Xavier Cedeno are early candidates to lead a committee, at least until Nate Jones returns from the DL. Jones is probably the best long-term bet to close if Soria is gone, but don’t get too excited about any of these options. BUY: Nate Jones; SELL: Joakim Soria.

Cleveland Indians –After Cody Allen, the Cleveland bullpen is a bit of a mess. Relief ace Andrew Miller is still out with a knee injury (though he’s working his way back), and the rest of the cast has been mediocre or worse. Still, they’re in the driver’s seat in the AL Central, so they will certainly be looking for relief help at the deadline, though no acquisition would supplant Allen. BUY/SELL: None.

Detroit Tigers — Shane Greene is healthy again for the going-nowhere Tigers, so that means he becomes a valuable piece ahead of the deadline. His setup man, Joe Jimenez, who pitched well while he was out and is an All-Star this year, would seize the closer’s job for himself if Greene is dealt. But wherever Greene goes, he’ll set up ahead of his new team’s closer. BUY: Joe Jimenez; SELL: Shane Greene.

Kansas City Royals — After trading Kelvin Herrera, the Royals sport one of the worst bullpens in baseball. With the team 25 games out of first place, they will likely try to deal away some pieces, but any of Wily Peralta, Kevin McCarthy, Tim Hill or Brandon Maurer won’t close anywhere if traded and aren’t reliable options if they stay. Still, though, Peralta has pitched well and may seize the KC job for the rest of the year with a few more clean saves. BUY/SELL: None.

Minnesota Twins — Fernando Rodney has had another solid campaign in his age 41 season, leading some teams to inquire about his availability before the deadline. Changing teams is nothing new for Rodney, who has played for SIX different squads since 2015! Expect the Twins to trade him if the right deal comes along. In his stead, we like Trevor Hildenberger, who has been solid this season. Ryan Pressly would likely set him up as Addison Reed is shelved with a triceps injury. BUY: Trevor Hildenberger; SELL: Fernando Rodney.

AL West

Houston Astros –With a playoff birth all but locked up, the Astros are widely expected to firm up their one major weakness: the ninth inning. Although Hector Rondon has been a revelation, Houston could still look to upgrade to Raisel Iglesias, Zach Britton (whom they almost acquired last July), or even Brad Hand. Either way, Rondon is unlikely to be saving games for this team come October. SELL: Hector Rondon.

Los Angeles Angels — Wild Card hopes are slipping away from the Angels, who might be willing to sell high on any member of their relief committee, including Blake Parker, Cam Bedrosian, or Justin Anderson. This makes this a difficult situation for speculation, as any pitcher who moves will likely see fewer save chances, while the one(s) who stay will reap the benefits. We’ll put a light sell signal on Parker, because he’s the committee leader at the moment. SELL: Blake Parker.

Oakland Athletics — Baseball’s lowest payroll hasn’t kept Oakland out of the thick of the wild card race. Although the team’s rotation is a much bigger area of need than their impressive bullpen, it’s possible that they’ll double down on their strength in order to deploy relievers earlier and earlier. Either way, Blake Treinen’s role should be safe. BUY/SELL: None.

Seattle Mariners — All-Star Edwin Diaz and his league-leading 36 saves aren’t going anywhere, and with Seattle fighting for the playoffs, they aren’t likely to move any other important relievers either. BUY/SELL: None.

Texas Rangers –The Rangers are hopelessly out of contention, but closer Keone Kela is young, cheap, and good, so they’d demand a high price to trade him. Jake Diekman could be a useful lefty on a contender, but he won’t be getting save chances anywhere. BUY/SELL: None.