Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: American League

July 12, 2017

Special Update (Part 1 of 2 — check back tomorrow for the National League)

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Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR – AL relievers
BUY+: Tommy Kahnle.
BUY: Bruce Rondon, Mike Minor, Joakim Soria, Cam Bedrosian, David Hernandez, Blake Parker, Keone Kela, Matt Bush.
SELL: David Robertson, Justin Wilson, Bud Norris, Jose Leclerc, Alex Claudio.
SELL+: None.
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AL East

Baltimore Orioles — The Orioles are four games back in a wide-open Wild Card race and 3.5 games in front of the last-place team in the American League, which means the team is still unsure how it will proceed at the trade deadline. How does this affect the bullpen? Zach Britton is not likely to be moved, which means that Brad Brach and Darren O’Day aren’t going to assume the closer’s role in Baltimore. Either one of those setup men, however, is an intriguing trade target for a team in need of some bullpen depth. Brach was the team’s closer during Britton’s extended DL stint, but it’s unlikely he closes for a new team if he does get moved. BUY/SELL: None.

Boston Red Sox — The Red Sox own one of the best bullpens in the American League thanks in large part to All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel. Joe Kelly (1.49 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) has been the team’s next-best pitcher, but his hold on the 8th inning in Boston is not all that certain. The Sox are in the market for another reliever, with David Phelps and Pat Neshek being mentioned as potential targets. But Boston also has an in-house option in Carson Smith, who is set to throw from a mound this week. If he progresses well, the Sox may stand pat in the ‘pen. BUY/SELL: None.

New York Yankees — The Yankees will be buyers at the deadline, with Brad Hand highlighted as one of the potential targets. They have also scouted Pat Neshek. Despite recent struggles, Dellin Betances (15.00 ERA in July) should remain the handcuff to Aroldis Chapman, though the addition of a reliever like Hand will put some more pressure on Betances. BUY/SELL: None.

Tampa Bay Rays — Like the Yankees, the Rays could use another bullpen arm as they make a push for a playoff spot. Closer Alex Colome (3.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) has not been lights-out this year, but Kevin Cash doesn’t seem interested in making a switch to either Brad Boxberger or Tommy Hunter, and it’s unlikely the Rays will trade for someone with the intention of having him slot immediately into the closer’s role. BUY/SELL: None.

Toronto Blue Jays — The Blue Jays are in a similar predicament as the Orioles at the All-Star break. Toronto is five games back in the Wild Card race, but only 2.5 games from being last in the American League. It’s more than likely that the Jays will be sellers, but it’s less than likely that they trade 22-year-old closer Roberto Osuna. BUY/SELL: None.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox — The White Sox will almost certainly be sellers at the deadline and they have a number of bullpen arms who could be interesting to contending teams. Closer David Robertson tops the list and will likely be dealt before the trade deadline. He is an attractive option due to his postseason experience and ability to go more than one inning. The Nationals have been linked to Robertson since before the season, and that would likely be the best situation for fantasy owners since he would take over as the Nationals’ closer immediately. The Red Sox and Yankees have also been rumored to be interested in Robertson, but he would likely serve in a setup role to either Kimbrel or Chapman. We will list Robertson as a soft sell based on the possibility of ending up somewhere as a setup man. Tommy Kahnle should get a chance to close if Robertson is dealt, unless he also gets traded. BUY+: Tommy Kahnle; SELL: David Robertson.

Cleveland Indians — Cleveland’s bullpen got them to the World Series last year, and they won’t be making any moves that affect Andrew Miller or Cody Allen at the back end. BUY/SELL: None.

Detroit Tigers — The Tigers already cut their Opening Day closer in Francisco Rodriguez and it would not be surprising if their current closer is not around for much longer, although for much different reasons. Justin Wilson is having a great year, and teams are usually willing to overpay for bullpen help at the deadline. The Astros have been linked to Wilson for a while and the Dodgers also seem interested. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Wilson probably will not remain as a closer if he is dealt. Bruce Rondon could get another shot to close if Wilson is shipped somewhere else. BUY: Bruce Rondon; SELL: Justin Wilson.

Kansas City Royals — The Royals started the year out slow, but after a record of 17-9 in June, they put themselves back into contention. That might not matter in a couple weeks for Kelvin Herrera. Herrera hasn’t been as good this year (4.50 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.74 K/9) as the past couple years, but he is still a very good reliever and has a team-friendly contract. The Nationals are rumored to be interested in Herrera. Joakim Soria is a veteran arm who is having a good season (11.68 K/9, 11 holds) but his contract is a little richer, so he may stick around and close if Herrera is dealt. Mike Minor (1.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) is having a stellar season in the bullpen and could close if both Herrera and Soria are gone at the deadline. BUY: Joakim Soria, Mike Minor; SELL: Kelvin Herrera.

Minnesota Twins — Closer Brandon Kintzler was recently named an injury replacement for the All-Star team, and the Twins are surprisingly in second place in the AL Central. While Kintzler thought his manager was calling to tell him he was being traded, we don’t think he will be going anywhere. The Twins opted not to trade Kintzler last year when they were much further out of contention, and they will likely keep the All-Star around this season as well. BUY/SELL: None.

AL West

Houston Astros — The Astros, who sport a ridiculous 16.5-game lead in the AL West, are virtual locks for the postseason. They will definitely be buyers ahead of the deadline, but will they add another piece to their strong back-end? Some rumors have the Astros targeting starting pitching, but if that proves unsuccessful, they could aim to boost the bullpen depth. The Detroit Free Press says the Astros may be interested in Tigers closer Justin Wilson. For now, the Tigers have been asking for Houston’s top outfield prospect Derek Fisher, which could prove to be too steep a price. BUY/SELL: None.

Los Angeles Angels — The Angels are two games under .500 and way, way behind the Astros in the division, but they’re only three games behind New York and Tampa for a Wild Card berth. Mike Trout’s return could turn the Angels into buyers, or the team can falter and find themselves sellers. Either scenario puts the Angels in the conversation to trade for or deal away some relievers, and they have some intriguing options. Health has been the big issue with the back end of the ‘pen, as Huston Street is back on the DL again. Bud Norris (2.23 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) and Cam Bedrosian (1.69 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) have pitched well, but each pitcher has had their injury woes this season. Both players are healthy now and could probably be had at the deadline for a reasonable price, especially Norris. If either player is traded to a contender, it’s hard to imagine they’d be a closer with their new club. BUY: Cam Bedrosian, David Hernandez, Blake Parker; SELL: Bud Norris.

Oakland Athletics — The A’s are always active at the deadline, and as one of the worst teams in the American League, they will certainly be sellers. Oakland features a handful of relievers, like Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle and Santiago Casilla, who all could be intriguing to some contenders. One report suggests Doolittle (0.69 WHIP, 12.84 K/9) and Madson (2.17 ERA, 0.80 WHIP) are likely to be traded to contenders. Neither player would close for their new team, so keep that in mind when managing your own roster. Casilla, meanwhile, may stick around as he hasn’t been as impressive (3.82 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) as his bullpen mates, though a contender could look to acquire a veteran reliever like Casilla for cheap. If everyone is dealt, watch out for Liam Hendriks (5.40 ERA, though a 12.03 K/9), or… GULP… John Axford (6.30 ERA) to get a promotion. BUY/SELL: None.

Seattle Mariners — The M’s are four games under .500, but just four games back in the Wild Card race and figure to be buyers at the deadline, primarily because the team is sporting the highest payroll in team history (more than $150 million) and may want to deal for a player or two to put them over the hump. Edwin Diaz seems firmly entrenched in the closer’s role again, but Seattle could look outside the organization to boost the depth behind him. It’s not clear if the team has been connected to any specific reliever, so stay tuned to see if anyone will join Nick Vincent and old closer Steve Cishek behind Diaz in the bullpen. BUY/SELL: None.

Texas Rangers — The Rangers’ bullpen is in shambles and has blown a league-worst 17 save chances. Still, though, Texas is within striking distance of the Wild Card (three games back), and GM Jon Daniels said over the weekend he doesn’t envision his team selling. In fact, the team is likely to pursue relievers and/or controllable players via trade, according to a report. So, what should the Rangers do? Currently sporting a three-headed committee, Texas could be in the market for a marquee reliever, like Brad Hand. Meanwhile, if there’s no deal to be made, keep an eye on the currently injured Keone Kela, Matt Bush or the recently-returned Jeremy Jeffress staking their claim as the team’s primary stopper. BUY: Keone Kela, Matt Bush; SELL: Jose Leclerc, Alex Claudio.

Roberto Osuna dealing with anxiety issues, Blake Parker records save

June 25, 2017

Toronto Blue Jays – Closer Roberto Osuna was unavailable on Friday night because he is dealing with anxiety issues.  Ryan Tepera was given the chance to start the ninth inning on Friday night in a save situation, but ran into trouble and was pulled.  It is unknown how long Osuna could be out, but the Blue Jays will likely mix and match in the ninth inning until he is available to pitch again.

Hierarchy remains: Osuna | Tepera | Barnes. 

Los Angeles Angels — An Angels’ reliever recorded a save yesterday and of course that reliever was….Blake Parker.  Parker came on with the bases loaded and two outs in the ninth inning and struck out the only batter he faced to pick up his first save of the season.  Cam Bedrosian started the ninth inning with the Angels up five so it was not a save opportunity.  He allowed two hits, two walks, and two runs before getting pulled in favor of Parker.  David Hernandez pitched a perfect seventh with two strikeouts.  This game did not help offer any clarity to who will get the next save chance so we will continue to monitor this closely.

Hierarchy remains: *Street | Hernandez | Bedrosian.
* = closer-by-committee

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today
1. Ryan Tepera – If Roberto Osuna is unable to pitch, Tepera may get another shot.
2. Arodys Vizcaino – Jim Johnson has pitched in three of four, throwing a total of 51 pitches.

Monday
1. Keone Kela – If Matt Bush pitches on Sunday, that will be two out of three, including a 31 pitch outing.

Kenley Jansen can’t convert save chance with nine run lead

May 7, 2017

Los Angeles Dodgers — Kenley Jansen got the last out of the eighth inning on Saturday night after he entered with the bases loaded and the Dodgers up four runs.  The Dodgers added five more runs in the top of the ninth, but Jansen still came back out for the bottom of the ninth to attempt the save in a 10-1 game.  Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Jansen was not able to get the job done and instead earned his first hold of the season after Chris Hatcher got the last out of the game.  Jansen was still in a playful mood post game as he jokingly told reporters, “I’m not getting sent down” after a closed door meeting between manager Dave Roberts and general manager Farhan Zaidi.

Hierarchy remains: Jansen | Baez | Fields.

Baltimore Orioles — Brad Brach got the day off yesterday and Darren O’Day recorded his second save of the season.  Hopefully you were paying attention to the Vulture Save Watch and stole a save in your fantasy leagues.

Hierarchy remains: Brach | O’Day | Givens.

Cincinnati Reds — Robert Stephenson pitched three scoreless innings to finish off a Reds’ blowout win, and he recorded his first career save in the process.  We don’t know if it’s more surprising that Stephenson got the save or that he didn’t give up a run (he had given up at least one run in six of his first seven appearances this season), but needless to say, he won’t factor into the Reds’ normal late inning plans.

Hierarchy remains: Iglesias | Storen | Lorenzen.

Colorado Rockies — Chris Rusin picked up a three inning save on Saturday.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Ottavino | Dunn.

Toronto Blue Jays — Joe Biagini will make his first Major League start today.  Joe Smith struck out the side in a perfect eighth inning on Friday night and should slide into the set-up role.  Jason Grilli might get a chance to reclaim a late inning role with Biagini in the rotation.

Updated hierarchy: Osuna |  Smith | Grilli.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today
1. Pedro Baez/Josh Fields – Kenley Jansen will likely be unavailable after throwing 33 pitches last night.  Baez might also rest since he has appeared in two straight and three of four.
2. Joakim Soria – Kelvin Herrera has pitched in three straight

Monday
1. Blake Parker – If Bud Norris pitches on Sunday, that will make it three straight.
2. Pedro Baez/Josh Fields – If Jansen does come back on Sunday after his 33 pitch effort yesterday, he will definitely get Monday off.

Rodney blows another save

April 30, 2017

Arizona Diamondbacks — Fernando Rodney allowed three runs in the ninth inning last night and recorded his second consecutive blown save.  After the game, manager Torey Lovullo said that Rodney is still the closer.  Archie Bradley came on to get the last two outs of the eighth inning last night, and he looks like a possible option to close games.  However when asked if Bradley would see save chances Lovullo said “not right now.”  The Diamondbacks seem intent on sticking with Rodney for now, but he will be unavailable on Sunday  so if there is a save chance it could give us a glimpse into what the plans would be if Rodney continues to struggle.

Hierarchy remains: Rodney | Hoover | de la Rosa.

Philadelphia Phillies – Just when it looked like Hector Neris may have settled into the closer’s role after converting three straight saves, he blew up on Saturday night.  Neris gave up back-to-back-to-back homers to the first three batters he faced in the ninth inning trying to protect a three run lead.  After the game manager Pete Mackanin stated the obvious that he would “like to have a lights-out closer, but we don’t have one right now.”  Neris should still see most save chances but this slip up could allow Benoit to get back into the conversation.

Hierarchy remains: *Neris | Benoit | Ramos.
* = closer-by-committee

Toronto Blue Jays — Roberto Osuna got back on track with a perfect inning for the save yesterday.  Jason Grilli was nowhere to be found as Joe Smith got his second consecutive eighth inning hold.  However, it was Joe Biagini who had the most important role in the win. He threw a perfect sixth and seventh inning, including stranding two inherited runners in the sixth while protecting a one run lead.

Updated hierarchy: Osuna | Biagini | Smith.

Texas Rangers — Keone Kela pitched a scoreless eighth inning ahead of closer Matt Bush yesterday, and has yet to allow a run since getting called up in mid-April.  Kela should continue to see time in the later innings and with Jeffress coming off an outing where he gave up three runs and took the loss, he could work his way into the set-up role.

Updated hierarchy: Bush | Jeffress | Kela.

New York Mets — Hansel Robles struck out four batters in 1.2 scoreless innings yesterday, and has been pitching well recently.  Meanwhile Fernando Salas has been struggling after getting off to a solid start, giving up six runs over his past four appearances.

Updated hierarchy: Familia | Reed | Robles.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. J.J. Hoover/Jorge de la Rosa – Fernando Rodney threw 34 pitches in a blown save on Saturday
2. Hansel Robles/Fernando Salas – Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed have both pitched in three straight
3. Adam Ottavino – Greg Holland has pitched in two straight and the Rockies could be cautious with him this early in the season.

Monday:
1. Nate Jones – David Robertson threw 33 pitches on Saturday and if he pitches again on Sunday, he would likely be rested on Monday.
2. Andrew Miller/Brian Shaw – If Cody Allen pitches on Sunday, that will be the fourth time in five days.  Miller threw 29 pitches on Saturday so if he also pitches on Sunday, that could leave Brian Shaw for the save on Monday.

Could Joe Biagini get some save opportunities in Toronto?

April 29, 2017

Toronto Blue Jays — The Blue Jays’ bullpen continues to be a disaster. Presumptive setup man Jason Grilli was brought in with one out in the eighth inning to protect a one-run lead, and immediately gave up the tying homer and a walk. After a strikeout, Grilli was pulled, but took the loss when his runner came around to score, lifting his ERA to an ugly 7.27. With Roberto Osuna also struggling, some think John Gibbons should turn to Joe Biagini. Biagini doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff, but has a reliable cut fastball, and certainly wouldn’t be the first reliever to lean heavily on a cutter. Don’t be surprised if Biagini starts getting the eighth inning, or even a shot at the ninth.

Hierarchy remains: Osuna | Grilli | Biagini.

Baltimore Orioles — The clock finally struck midnight for Brad Brach, with his first three earned runs of the season coming as part of a massive 10-run Yankee comeback. Orioles fans can be comforted by the imminent return of Zach Britton (Sunday or Tuesday), and cautioned by the two walks and a home run he gave up in last night’s rehab outing against the legendary Akron Rubber Ducks. #AffordableFamilyFun!

Hierarchy remains: Brach | O’Day | Givens.

Minnesota Twins — Brandon Kintzler has been excellent as Minnesota’s closer, but behind him the Twins are searching for consistency. Ryan Pressly got his ERA below 9 on Friday, but it was in the seventh inning of a game his team was losing by two. It appears that Pressly is getting some space to fix his command issues, so look for Taylor Rogers to pick up the slack. He’s something of a lefty specialist, but has five holds already, including the last out of the eighth last night.

Updated hierarchy: Kintzler | Belisle | Rogers.

Los Angeles Angels — The Vulture Save Watch correctly predicted that Bud Norris would get a break, but with a three-run lead in the ninth, the Angels decided to use Jose Alvarez against a lefty-heavy lineup. Alvarez is not a typical LOOGY, but he’s the only lefty in the bullpen, so he picks up some matchups. David Hernandez pitched a perfect eighth inning, while Blake Parker was waiting to put out any fires that may have arisen in the ninth. We think it’s still Parker, then Hernandez, behind Norris.

Hierarchy remains: Norris | Parker | Hernandez.

New York Mets — Jeurys Familia pitched himself into trouble in his first save opportunity, loading the bases with three singles, up two in the ninth. Familia did strike out the next batter, but was pulled so lefty Josh Edgin could face Bryce Harper. Edgin got Harper to ground into a 1-2-3 double play, picking up his first save. Familia had a rough outing, but hopefully has worked through the rust.

Hierarchy remains: Familia | Reed | Salas.

Tampa Bay Rays — With both Alex Colome and Danny Farquhar resting, Jumbo Diaz got the call up four in the 9th. After a leadoff double followed by a single and a sacrifice fly, Chase Whitley came in to end the threat. He got the next two outs for his first save of the year. Whitley has been an effective long reliever since his return from Tommy John surgery; going forward, he’s mostly just a threat for three-inning saves.

Hierarchy remains: Colome | Farquhar | Diaz.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today
1. Hunter Strickland — Mark Melancon has gone in three straight (4 of 5).
2. Nick Vincent — Edwin Diaz has pitched in three in a row (50 pitches).
3. Darren O’Day — Brach needed 30 pitches last night and has thrown 58 in the last three days.
4. Drew Storen/Michael Lorenzen — Bryan Price has been very committed to not throwing relievers on consecutive days, and Raisel Iglesias pitched last night. It was Iglesias’s first appearance since last Sunday, though, so if there was ever a time to go back-to-back, today would likely be it.
5. Sergio Romo — Kenley Jansen has pitched in two straight (3 of 4).
6. Addison Reed — The Mets might go easy on Jeurys Familia as he returns to the closer role.

Sunday
1. Arodys Vizcaino — Jim Johnson has gone in two in a row and might rest if he pitches Saturday.
2. Reed — If Familia does go, he won’t pitch Sunday.
3. Trevor Rosenthal — Seung Hwan Oh has pitched on back-to-back days, including a four-out save last night. Look for him to rest Sunday if he gets another chance tonight.
4. Dellin Betances — Aroldis Chapman has thrown 49 pitches over three days.
5. Andrew Miller — It’s been two of three for Cody Allen.
6. Corey Knebel — Same for Neftali Feliz, who took the loss Friday.