Hot Seat: August 15, 2015

Here’s our latest Hot Seat update, a ranking of current closer job security.

Hottest – In a committee, or on the verge of losing their job right now

30. Edward Mujica (cuffs: Fernando Rodriguez/Sean Doolittle)
29. Junichi Tazawa (cuff: Jean Machi)
28. Tommy Kahnle (cuff: Justin Miller)
27. Bruce Rondon (cuff: Alex Wilson)

-Oakland’s next save chance might go to Doolittle after he successfully completed his second rehab outing on Friday. Koji Uehara’s injury has thrown the Boston bullpen into chaos, with neither Tazawa nor Machi clearly in charge. In Detroit, Bruce Rondon has grabbed the job from Alex Wilson, but has only slightly more job security.

Hot – Closers who could be in danger after their next blown save

26. Santiago Casilla (cuff: Sergio Romo)
25. Carson Smith (cuffs: Fernando Rodney/Tom Wilhelmsen)
24. Brad Boxberger (cuff: Jake McGee)
23. Greg Holland (cuff: Wade Davis)

-Casilla has stayed iffy, and Holland drops down a level after his four-run, no out debacle on Thursday. Some more regular work might help him.

Warmish – Two blown saves in a row and these players might be in trouble

22. Luke Gregerson
21. Glen Perkins
20. Arodys Vizcaino

-Gregerson and Perkins aren’t out of the woods yet; Vizcaino continues to impress, but probably needs to do a little more to escape this cohort.

Cool – These players would have to blow 3 consecutive saves for their jobs to be in jeopardy

19. Francisco Rodriguez
18. Hector Rondon
17. Brad Ziegler
16. AJ Ramos
15. David Robertson
14. Jeurys Familia
13. Huston Street
12. Roberto Osuna
11. Kenley Jansen
10. Cody Allen
9. Ken Giles
8. Mark Melancon

-Osuna moves up five slots on the strength of a three-save week. Street and Robertson slide a bit.

Sub-zero – These players would have to blow 4+ consecutive saves for their jobs to be in jeopardy

7. Jonathan Papelbon
6. Trevor Rosenthal
5. Shawn Tolleson
4. Zach Britton
3. Andrew Miller
2. Craig Kimbrel
1. Aroldis Chapman

-Welcome Papelbon and Rosenthal to the safest zone of all. Britton and Miller each get passed by Kimbrel after some minor struggles.

Hot Seat: August 8, 2015

Teams at the top are desperate for wins. Those near the bottom are assessing what they’ve got. That means short leashes everywhere, and the return of the Hot Seat column. Note that these rankings are in order of current job security.

Hottest – In a committee, or on the verge of losing their job right now

30. Alex Wilson (cuff: Bruce Rondon)
29. Tommy Kahnle (cuff: Justin Miller)

-Wilson hasn’t allowed a run since the trade of Joakim Soria, but has very low strikeout rates and a resurgent Bruce Rondon behind him. Tommy Kahnle has been good lately and just picked up his first save at the top of a Colorado committee, but he could lose his chance to run with the job if his next outing is poor.

 

Hot – Closers who could be in danger after their next blown save

28. Edward Mujica (cuff: Drew Pomeranz)
27. Carson Smith (cuff: Fernando Rodney/Tom Wilhelmsen)
26. Santiago Casilla (cuff: Sergio Romo)
25. Brad Boxberger (cuff: Jake McGee)

-Boxberger and Casilla are coming off rough outings, while Carson Smith has been wildly inconsistent lately. Edward Mujica is also on a short leash, having just taken over the job.

 

Warmish – Two blown saves in a row and these players might be in trouble

24. Arodys Vizcaino
23. Luke Gregerson
22. Greg Holland
21. Glen Perkins

-Vizcaino has been great thus far, but is only a week into the gig. Gregerson and Holland have been mostly good this season, but often don’t look like the best pitcher in the bullpen. Perkins has had a rough stretch.

 

Cool – These players would have to blow 3 consecutive saves for their jobs to be in jeopardy

20. Francisco Rodriguez
19. Brad Ziegler
18. Koji Uehara
17. Roberto Osuna
16. Hector Rondon
15. AJ Ramos
14. Jeurys Familia
13. David Robertson
12. Kenley Jansen
11. Cody Allen
10. Huston Street
9. Ken Giles
8. Mark Melancon
7. Trevor Rosenthal
6. Jonathan Papelbon

-The majority of stoppers fall in this category for now, and though these players span 15 spots in the rankings, there isn’t a tremendous difference between any of the guys. They’re all pretty good and they’re all pretty secure for the time being. Papelbon might be in the Sub-zero category, but he’s got fan favorite Drew Storen pitching the 8th ahead of him, which might mean some added pressure.

 

Sub-zero – These players would have to blow 4+ consecutive saves for their jobs to be in jeopardy

5. Shawn Tolleson
4. Craig Kimbrel
3. Zach Britton
2. Andrew Miller
1. Aroldis Chapman

-Tolleson has been fine, but he’s not quite on the level with the other four — he’s mainly in this tier because he has very little competition in the Texas bullpen.

Weekly Hot Seat Update: June 20, 2015

We currently have three closer committees and each one is a little bit different. Let’s take a look at them in a little greater detail, and think about what they might look like in the short term and the long term.

Tampa Bay Rays — When Jake McGee started the season on the DL, most people thought that whoever started the season as the closer for the Rays would just be keeping it warm until McGee got back.  After all, McGee was coming off a season where he recorded 19 saves, struck out well over a batter per inning, and had an ERA under 2.00.  Brad Boxberger had other ideas, however.  By the time McGee made his season debut on May 17th, Boxberger was already 10 for 10 in save opportunities and had an ERA just over 1.00.  Boxberger picked up five more saves in the month of May, but then the calendar turned to June, and everything seemed to change.  McGee rattled off seven straight scoreless appearances, including saves in three straight outings.  Meanwhile, Boxberger blew a couple of saves and saw his ERA jump over 3.00.  It looked like McGee had all the momentum moving forward.  Then things changed again. On Thursday, Boxberger recorded the save, while McGee took the eighth inning.  There didn’t seem to be any special reasons for this, as the Nationals had two righties and a switch-hitter to start the eighth inning against the lefty McGee, and Boxberger took the top of the order in the ninth.  Again on Friday, Boxberger got the save after McGee pitched the eighth.  It’s hard to read too much into a couple games but usage certainly suggests that Boxberger continues to be the closer.  We think the Rays will use both guys (and mix Kevin Jepsen in as well) to try and keep everyone fresh, but Boxberger should see the majority of save chances.

Seattle Mariners — Carson Smith has recorded the last three saves for the Mariners and his numbers have been fantastic this season.  Still, manager Lloyd McClendon seems to want Fernando Rodney back in his former role as closer.  It took McClendon a long time to remove Rodney from the job, and now, after three scoreless outings, he has already started talking about Rodney getting save opportunities when Smith is unavailable.  If Smith continues to pitch as well as he has, it will be hard to remove him from the closer’s role, but if he falters at all, and Rodney can put together a few more strong appearances, Rodney could get a chance to reclaim the job.

Chicago Cubs — Seven different Rays relievers recorded saves last season when Joe Maddon was the team’s manager.  This year, four different relievers have already picked up saves for the Cubs, even though Maddon said a week ago that he would prefer to have one guy for the ninth inning.  Hector Rondon has gotten most of the save chances, including the most recent one.  Rondon was very good last year and despite a couple blown saves, his numbers are pretty good this year.  Rondon should have a chance to become the full-time closer again for the Cubs, but with Pedro Strop, Jason Motte, (and potentially Rafael Soriano) looming, he needs to make sure he doesn’t slip up.

Weekly Hot Seat Update: June 12, 2015

A few quick lists this week, comprising all 30 of the top guys in our depth chart:

Top three closers at the moment — Zach Britton; David Robertson; Drew Storen
These guys have high strikeout rates, low walk rates, and there’s nothing in their advanced stats to suggest trouble ahead. Britton‘s GB% is second among all qualified relievers (69.8%).

Knocking on that door — Dellin Betances; Kenley Jansen
With Andrew Miller out for what could be an extended period of time, Betances will get the chance to prove that his impressive skills can play in the ninth inning. Jansen has looked good in his nine appearances, but the .071 BABIP is, er, unsustainable.

Pitching worse than their numbers — John Axford; Tyler Clippard; Greg Holland; Brad Ziegler
These four guys have combined for 37 saves with pretty decent ERAs, but each of them have worrying low K rates (mitigated some for Ziegler and Axford due to their high groundout rates) and are letting too many guys get on base. As we told you a few weeks ago, Holland‘s surface success is not supported by his underlying metrics, and we don’t recommend waiting until the two reach an equilibrium.

Probably better than you think — Luke Gregerson; Jason Grilli; Cody Allen; Hector Rondon; Brett Cecil; Brad Boxberger
The first three guys are raking in saves pretty well, and though their ERAs are higher than you’d like, the fundamentals look pretty solid. Rondon isn’t pitching lights-out or anything, but he doesn’t deserve to be ousted for a committee either. He and Clippard are nearly twins (same IP, same K rate), but Rondon has a much lower walk rate and has given up hits 5% more often on batted balls. And it’s not the fault of Cecil or Boxberger that they’re not getting any save opportunities lately (or, in Cecil‘s case, at all, ever); they’re doing most of what they’re being asked to do.

Guys with 13+ saves who are likely to regress — Joakim Soria; Mark Melancon; Santiago Casilla; Trevor Rosenthal; Francisco Rodriguez; Koji Uehara
If you have a strong bullpen, you might consider moving any of these guys in a trade. Play up those gaudy save numbers and don’t mention that Rosenthal and Soria have astronomically high strand rates that are keeping their ERAs artificially low, that K-Rod is boasting a sub-.220 BABIP for the second straight year, or that Koji Uehara is two months older than Allen Iverson. Sell high, friends.

Big names pitching well (enough) — Glen Perkins; Jonathan Papelbon; Aroldis Chapman; Craig Kimbrel; Huston Street
Some exposure to age and regression here — and there’s no telling where Papelbon might end up — but overall, these guys are getting it done.

Why you don’t have to pay for saves — Carson Smith; Shawn Tolleson; A.J. Ramos; Jeurys Familia
None of these guys were their team’s top choice coming into spring training, but through combinations of injuries and ineffectiveness, they’re closers now — and paying dividends for the owners fortunate enough to grab them first. We’ll be sure to keep you ahead of the curve on the next guys to make this list — maybe Evan Scribner, Wade Davis, or Tony Watson.

Weekly Hot Seat Update: May 29, 2015

With all the closer changes so far this season, it’s easy to see the value in owning guys who are first in line.  But while it’s always nice to have a new closer, wouldn’t it be even better to get the next dominant one?  Back in 2012, Greg Holland was first in line to saves for the Royals, behind Jonathan Broxton.  After the Royals traded Broxton, Holland stepped in and solidified himself as a top-five closer over the next several seasons.  Who could be the next Greg Holland?

Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays — McGee is a little different than the other guys on this list since he closed for a while last year, and could even see save chances right now, in a committee with Brad Boxberger.  Still, with McGee coming back from injury, and coming off a rough outing, this seemed like a good time to talk about him.  McGee was an elite reliever last year, striking out 90 batters to go along with an ERA under 2 and a WHIP under 1.  He gave up a grand slam on Tuesday to raise his ERA over 8.00 in limited appearances this season.  McGee’s strikeout numbers are still there (6 in 3.1 innings), and in his first three appearances he only gave up one hit.  If Boxberger gets hurt or starts to struggle, McGee could take the job and run with it.

Carson Smith, Seattle Mariners — Smith is probably the least well-known reliever on this list, but some people think he should take over as the Mariners closer right now.  Called up in September last year, Smith impressed in limited action, giving up only five baserunners in 8.1 innings.  Smith has continued to dominate hitters this season, giving up 9 hits while striking out 24 in 21 IP.  With over 40 saves in his minor league career, Smith has shown the ability to close out games, and should be a guy to watch the rest of this season.

Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies — When Ken Giles joined the Phillies last year in June, he gave up a run in his first appearance.  It took almost a month and a half before he gave up another one.  He finished 2014 with 64 strikeouts in 45.2 innings, good enough to rank him in the top 15 in K/9 among relief pitchers with more than 40 IP.  Giles has not been as dominant this year, but he’s still striking out about a batter per inning.  It’s no secret that the Phillies would like to trade their current closer, Jonathan Papelbon, and if that happens, Giles could step right in and be a lights-out closer.

Dellin Betances, New York Yankees — Remember when Dellin Betances was supposed to be the Yankees’ closer this season after David Robertson left?  Andrew Miller had a little something to say about that, but that hasn’t stopped Betances from remaining one of the best relievers in the game.  Betances has yet to allow an earned run in 26 innings so far this season, and his 41 strikeouts lead all relievers.  Although he wasn’t able to capitalize on Robertson’s departure early this season, he still looks like a guy who could be one of the best fantasy closers in baseball if he can get the full-time gig.

Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals – Let’s finish up with the guy who’s currently pitching behind the example we mentioned at the top.  Like Betances, Wade Davis has yet to allow an earned run this season, and has only given up 8 hits in 20 innings.  He also has 7 saves from when closer Greg Holland was hurt earlier this season.  Davis’s strikeout numbers aren’t as good as some of the other guys listed above, but he is still at almost one per inning, and he finished last season with over 100 Ks.