Closer Monkey’s Leverage Ledger | August 20

In one of the most turbulent slates of the season, relievers recorded seven wins, though one was accompanied by a blown save (Luis Mey), and ten saves while suffering seven losses. Here are the saves in condensed form:

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Three Takeaways

(1) Match-up Mansolino strikes again: Taking over at the bottom of the 11th with a one-run lead, Corbin Martin retired the side against the Red Sox while throwing 10 pitches (50% strike rate) without a whiff. Yennier Cano hit a batter and issued a one-out walk before inducing an inning-ending double play groundout at the bottom of the tenth, then collected his second win after his team’s rally at the top of the 11th. Yaramil Hiraldo was summoned for his first save chance in the ninth, but struggled with this command. He also gave up Nathaniel Lowe’s game-tying two-run home run, his only hit allowed while issuing four walks and striking out two in the ninth during his first blown save. Rico Garcia stranded the bases loaded while striking out all three batters faced in the eighth, notching his second hold. Kade Strowd yielded two hits and a walk before being removed in the eighth. Keegan Akin tossed two clean frames, securing his 14th hold.

There are many moving parts to this contest, but our hierarchy will reflect a slight change based on Garcia taking over at the highest-leveraged moment, rather than getting the save chance. Stranding the bases loaded with three consecutive strikeouts, there is no save otherwise:

Can he maintain this level of performance in future appearances? I am not sure. However, seeing Akin logging two innings and recent patterns, it feels like Garcia will get the next save chance, if he’s not needed sooner:

Updated Hierarchy: *Rico Garcia | *Yennier Cano | *Dietrich Enns

*= closer-by-committee

(2) JoJo is not a “closer.” I have warned fantasy players that JoJo Romero will be the preferred save option when available. However, he will likely face an opponent’s best lineup, especially if it contains a left-handed hitter. For a second consecutive game, Romero worked the eighth inning against the top of the Marlins lineup. He notched his 18th hold, retiring the 2-3-4 lineup pocket in order while striking out one. He has appeared in three straight contests. Riley O’Brien took over with a three-run lead at the bottom of the ninth in Miami and walked the first two batters he faced, recorded consecutive strikeouts, and then induced a game-ending groundout, recording his second save. He threw 18 pitches (50% strike rate) and produced two whiffs (11.1 SwStr%).

He has been scoreless in his last six appearances and converted two of three save chances with five strikeouts versus five walks across 6.2 innings. However, he must display better command, or traffic will be his undoing. With reports that Kyle Leahy will transition into a “piggyback” option for Cardinal starters:

Updated Hierarchy: *JoJo Romero | *Riley O’Brien | Matt Svanson

*= closer-by-committee

(3) No Santillan in the eighth? When a manager establishes a defined hierarchy, it provokes speculation when it’s not followed. Graham Ashcraft let his only inherited runner score, giving up two hits and recording a strikeout during two-thirds scoreless in the seventh, getting credit for his 17th hold. In the eighth, it was Luis Mey, who allowed a game-tying home run by Jo Adell, resulting in his first blown save, but he also collected his first win courtesy of his team’s two-run rally at the top of the ninth. After not pitching the eighth with a one-run lead, it was Tony Santillan shutting the door for his fourth save, retiring the Angels’ 7-8-9 lineup pocket in order while recording two strikeouts in the ninth. He threw 12 pitches (66.7% strike rate) and induced one whiff (8.3 SwStr%).

It’s his first save since July 30, and there is no changing of the guard. Terry Francona informed Emilio Pagán that he would not be pitching in this game to give him rest, per the game recap by Gordon Wittenmyer for Cincinnati.com:

Those with Pagán should not panic, but should monitor his results closely, as a brutal stretch of games is on tap.

Hierarchy Remains: Emilio Pagán | Tony Santillan | Graham Ashcraft

Here are the remaining leverage events of interest from Tuesday.

Leverage Ledger

Arizona DiamondbacksSecuring his second save, Andrew Saalfrank took over at the top of the ninth against the Guardians’ 3-4-5 hitters, lined up against two switch hitters and a left-handed batter. He preserved the one-run lead by retiring the side and striking out one on nine pitches (55.6% strike rate) with three whiffs (33.3 SwStr%).

He has converted two of three save chances in his last three outings.

  • Kyle Backhus stranded two runners despite issuing a walk with an inning-ending popout against Angel Martínez for his seventh hold in the eighth.
  • Andrew Hoffmann was credited with his third hold, giving up two hits, an earned run, and a walk during two-thirds of the eighth.
  • Juan Burgos collected his first win, stranding a runner while allowing a hit and a walk during one-third of the seventh.

Hierarchy Remains: *Andrew Saalfrank | *Andrew Hoffmann | *Juan Morillo

*= closer-by-committee

Atlanta Braves – Capping his team’s comeback win, Raisel Iglesias retired the side at the top of the ninth, preserving a one-run lead and recording his 20th save. He threw nine pitches (77.8% strike rate) and produced three whiffs (33.3 SwStr%).

This extended his scoreless streak to 12 games, and he’s converted all nine save opportunities in them, posting a 0.417 WHIP with 11 strikeouts.

  • Dylan Lee worked a clean top of the eighth and collected his second win as a result of his team’s go-ahead rally at the bottom of the inning.
  • Dane Dunning tossed a clean seventh, striking out two.

Hierarchy Remains: Raisel Iglesias | Dylan Lee | Pierce Johnson

Chicago Cubs – (Game 1) – Back from his illness and right into the ninth inning, Daniel Palencia worked around a one-out walk to Sal Frelick and a single by Caleb Durbin by inducing a game-ending double play groundout against William Contreras, preserving his team’s two-run lead and locking down his 17th save. He threw 17 pitches (64.7% strike rate) and produced three whiffs (17.5 SwStr%) while recording one strikeout in his scoreless appearance.

  • Drew Pomeranz fired a clean top of the eighth, striking out two, and secured his tenth hold.
  • Caleb Thielbar worked a clean seventh and recorded one strikeout for his 16th hold.
  • Brad Keller let his only inherited runner score, giving up a hit and two walks while striking out two during two-thirds of the sixth, posting his 19th hold.

(Game 2) – Completing a sweep, Andrew Kittredge locked down his second save, retiring the side at the top of the ninth against Milwaukee, throwing 10 pitches (60% strike rate) without a whiff.

  • Ryan Brasier worked a clean eighth, notching his fourth hold.
  • Taylor Rogers navigated around two hits and recorded a strikeout during a scoreless seventh for his tenth hold.

Hierarchy Remains: Daniel Palencia | Brad Keller | Andrew Kittredge

Detroit TigersAfter tossing two scoreless frames, including stranding the “place” runner at the top of the tenth, Will Vest allowed a hit and recorded a strikeout, then collected his sixth win on a walk-off rally at the bottom of the inning. He threw 26 pitches (69.2% strike rate) and induced one whiff. He’s been scoreless in his last six games, posting a 0.649 WHIP with seven strikeouts versus one walk.

  • Kyle Finnegan kept the game scoreless, retiring the side and striking out one at the top of the eighth, throwing 16 pitches (81.3% strike rate) and producing two whiffs (12.5 SwStr%). This extends his scoreless streak to ten games, eight since his acquisition.

Hierarchy Remains: *Kyle Finnegan | *Will Vest | Tyler Holton

*= closer-by-committee

Kansas City Royals – Handed a three-run lead, John Schreiber worked around a two-out walk to Marcus Semien for a scoreless ninth, securing his first save of the season. He threw 11 pitches (54.5% strike rate) without a whiff. Providing his teammates with a much-needed night off, Schreiber recorded his first save since one year ago today and extended his scoreless streak to six games.

  • Angel Zerpa collected his fourth win, logging 1.2 scoreless innings, despite allowing a hit and a walk.

Hierarchy Remains: Carlos Estévez | Lucas Erceg | John Schreiber

Philadelphia Phillies – Locking down his 22nd save, Jhoan Duran retired the Mariners’ 9-1-2 hitters in order, including a game-ending strikeout of Cal Raleigh, preserving a two-run lead. He threw 12 pitches (66.7% strike rate) and generated four whiffs (33.3 SwStr%).

This extends his scoreless streak to seven games since the trade deadline while converting all six save opportunities with a 0.351 WHIP and five strikeouts over 5.2 innings.

  • David Robertson worked a clean top of the eighth, striking out two, and collected his first win courtesy of a two-run rally at the bottom of the inning.
  • Matt Strahm stranded a runner and retired his only batter in the eighth.
  • Orion Kerkering gave up a hit, two earned runs, and two walks during one-third of the seventh, resulting in his sixth blown save.

Updated Hierarchy: Jhoan Duran | Matt Strahm | David Robertson

The Athletics – Recording his first career save, Hogan Harris retired the Twins’ 6-7-8 lineup pocket in order, throwing 11 pitches (63.6% strike rate) and inducing one whiff.

This was his first appearance since August 13, when he logged three scoreless innings during a loss.

  • Justin Sterner notched his 11th hold, tossing two scoreless frames, scattering two hits, and striking out two.

Updated Hierarchy: *Sean Newcomb | *Elvis Alvarado | *Hogan Harris

*= closer-by-committee

Quick Hits

  • Boston Red Sox: Entering at the top of the 11th, Garrett Whitlock produced consecutive groundouts, but let the “place” runner score, resulting in his third loss. He also gave up a walk during his inning of relief. Aroldis Chapman worked a scoreless tenth, walking one and striking out three on 13 pitches (69.2% strike rate) while generating six whiffs (46.2 SwStr%).
  • Chicago White Sox: Called upon with the bases loaded and one out at the bottom of the eighth, leading by one, Steven Wilson induced a pop-out against Marcell Ozuna, then gave up Drake Baldwin’s two-RBI single, resulting in his fifth blown save. Tyler Alexander gets charged with his first loss and credited with a third hold, giving up two hits, two earned runs, and two walks while recording an out in the seventh and eighth innings.
  • Cleveland Guardians: Tim Herrin took over in the seventh, allowing a hit, two earned runs, and a walk during his two-thirds of the inning, resulting in his third loss.
  • Houston Astros: Tasked with a tied game at the bottom of the tenth, Kaleb Ort induced a flyout, intentionally walked Dillon Dingler, struck out Javier Báez, walked Jahmai Jones, then walked in the game-winning run, resulting in his second loss.
  • Los Angeles Angels: With the score tied at the top of the ninth, Kenley Jansen allowed Jose Trevino’s one-out single, hit Ke’Bryan Hayes with a pitch, and walked Will Benson to load the bases. TJ Friedl plated the go-ahead run with a sacrifice fly, and Gavin Lux doubled, scoring one run, but Benson was thrown out at home, ending the inning. Jansen gets tagged with his third loss, giving up two hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out one.
  • San Diego Padres: Closing a four-run win over the Giants, Robert Suarez retired the side against the 5-6-7 lineup pocket on 10 pitches (70% strike rate) without a whiff.
  • Seattle Mariners: Taking over a tied game at the bottom of the eighth, Matt Brash suffered his second loss, allowing two hits, including J.T. Realmuto’s go-ahead two-run home run, and a walk while striking out one.
  • Texas Rangers: Almost like clockwork, another sullied game for this bullpen. Hoby Milner took over a tied game at the bottom of the seventh and allowed three consecutive hits, resulting in an earned run and his third loss without retiring a batter.
  • Toronto Blue Jays: Finishing a four-run win over the Pirates, Jeff Hoffman fired a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded a strikeout. He threw nine pitches (55.6% strike rate) without a whiff. This extended his scoreless streak to eight games, during which he has a 0.909 WHIP with two wins and three saves in four chances.

News, Notes, and Observations

With eyes on minor league rehab assignments, beginning with Tanner Scott making his first appearance at Triple-A. He threw 16 pitches (62.5% strike rate) and produced four whiffs (25 SwStr%) working with increased velocity:

According to Sonja Chen of MLB.com, he could be activated as soon as this weekend, or at the latest, on Monday against the Reds:

Justin Slaten also logged a strong outing at Triple-A, striking out the side:

Lastly, Robert Stephenson has been making progress toward a return:

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net