Where does Rafael Soriano fit in to the Cubs bullpen?

July 20, 2015

Kansas City Royals – In perhaps the most unlikely save of 2015, Joe Blanton got the last three outs of a 3-run Royals victory on Sunday. Save for Blanton, virtually the entire Kansas City bullpen had pitched on both Friday and Saturday, and rather than make someone go three straight, Ned Yost opted for Blanton. He does not factor in to Kansas City’s usual late inning plans.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

Cleveland Indians – After Cody Allen blew the save in the 9th, Zach McAllister got the last two outs in the 11th after the Indians had retaken the lead. Despite the blown save, Allen’s job is perfectly safe.

Hierarchy remains: Allen | Shaw | McAllister.

Chicago Cubs – After Sunday’s game, the Cubs promoted Rafael Soriano to the big league club after the veteran posted seven scoreless minor league appearances. Given Joe Maddon’s familiarity with him — Soriano had arguably his best season when serving as the Rays’ closer in 2010 — we think he’ll be a factor in the late innings right away. Additionally, depending on where you stand on sunk cost theory, the Cubs ate a lot of money to get Soriano the big leagues, as they DFA’d former starter Edwin Jackson to make room for him. (Jackson still had $15.6 million left on his deal.) Pedro Strop has had a few bad outings lately, so we’ll tentatively slot Soriano in to the 2nd in line spot and see how Maddon utilizes him in the early going.

Updated hierarchy: *Motte | Rondon | Soriano.
* = closer-by-committee

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. J.J. Hoover, Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman threw 44 pitches on Sunday and will likely be held out of the game tonight.
2. Joe Smith, Los Angeles Angels – A double header today means an outside chance of a save opportunity for Joe Smith…
3. Junichi Tazawa, Boston Red Sox – …or Junichi Tazawa.

McGee records save for Rays

July 19, 2015

Tampa Bay Rays — Jake McGee picked up his 4th save of the season on Saturday and has not allowed a run in his last 18 appearances.  However, it was Brad Boxberger who pitched in the more important spot, as he faced the top of the order in the 8th inning.  Boxberger still appears to be the closer for the Rays but McGee could still see some save opportunities when Boxberger is needed before the 9th inning.

Hierarchy remains: Boxberger | McGee | Jepsen.

Seattle Mariners – Carson Smith recorded his 7th save of the season yesterday, while Fernando Rodney was used for the last out of 8th inning.  Smith gave up a run in the 9th, but the fact that Rodney was used in the 8th and Smith was able to convert another save opportunity should bode well for him moving forward.

Hierarchy Remains: *Smith | Rodney | Lowe.
* = closer-by-committee.

Kansas City Royals – Ryan Madson earned his first save since 2011 in an extra innings win for the Royals yesterday.  Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland had all pitched earlier in the game, with Holland blowing the save in the 9th.  Madson has been a great comeback story this year with an ERA under 2.00, and could challenge Kelvin Herrera for the 7th inning role if he continues to pitch well.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

San Francisco Giants – Sergio Romo entered the game with 2 outs and 2 men on in the 8th inning, with the Giants up by 4.  He retired the only batter he faced and then stayed on to pitch a scoreless 9th for his first save of the year.

Hierarchy remains: Casilla | Romo | Strickland.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals – Greg Holland has pitched in two straight, including a 26 pitch blown save yesterday.
2. Fernando Rodney, Seattle Mariners – Carson Smith picked up the save yesterday but it took him 30 pitches so Lloyd McClendon could choose to go with Rodney on Sunday.

Baseball’s back, and so is Huston Street

July 18, 2015

Los Angeles Angels — After a Friday workout that included agility drills, a full warmup, and 14 pitches at game speed, Huston Street announced that he would be available to pitch on Saturday.

Hierarchy remains: Street | Smith | Gott.

Washington Nationals — A “barking” shoulder has landed new father David Carpenter on the disabled list, but Aaron Barrett, who returned from injury right before the break, should resume the primary seventh inning role for the Nats.

Updated hierarchy: Storen | Janssen | Barrett.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Kevin Siegrist, St. Louis Cardinals — Trevor Rosenthal was held out of the All-Star game due to overwork, and his first appearance of the second half required 39 pitches.
2, Bruce Rondon, Detroit Tigers — Joakim Soria threw 29 pitches on Friday.
3. Daniel Hudson/Oliver Perez, Arizona Diamondbacks — Brad Ziegler pitched two innings (26 pitches) in last night’s extra-inning game, and Hudson threw 27 pitches himself.

Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: National League

July 16, 2015

Special Update (Part 2 of 2 — click here for the American League)

—–
Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR – NL relievers
BUY+: Ken Giles.
BUY: Jeremy Jeffress, Daniel Hudson, Tommy Kahnle, LaTroy Hawkins, Arodys Vizcaino.
SELL: Francisco Rodriguez, Jim Johnson, Jonathan Papelbon, Brad Ziegler, John Axford.
SELL+: None.
—–

NL East

Atlanta Braves – The Braves are more likely to sell than buy at the deadline given their position in both the NL East and Wild Card standings, and with Jason Grilli now out for the season, closer Jim Johnson is now the only reliever that will be on the trade block for the Braves. If the Braves do ship Johnson, Arodys Vizcaino is likely to get the first crack at the closer’s role. BUY: Arodys Vizcaino, SELL: Jim Johnson.

Miami Marlins – AJ Ramos has lots of team control left, and at super-cheap entry level prices it is hard to imagine Miami moving him. The Marlins definitely won’t be buyers, since they are out of it now. BUY/SELL: None.

New York Mets – The Mets are just two games back of Washington in the division and a lone game back in the Wild Card race, so they probably would be buyers if their bullpen was a big need. It isn’t, however, since Jeurys Familia has been great, Bobby Parnell is a solid backup and Jenrry Mejia is back from suspension. BUY/SELL: None.

Philadelphia Phillies – Jonathan Papelbon is the obvious trade target in the league, since he’s been begging for a trade almost every day and is tired of waiting. He can block any trade, and he wants to go to a contender, so he’s not really a big sell candidate because he would probably be a closer wherever he went. The rumors are to the Cubs (probable closer), the Blue Jays (definite closer), the Rangers (probably would supplant Tolleson, as good as he’s been) and the Dodgers or Angels (maybe not over Jansen or Street). Ken Giles is the major beneficiary, and he has been really good this year. BUY+: Ken Giles, SELL: Jonathan Papelbon.

Washington Nationals – Drew Storen has been solid, but the rest of the bullpen has been less effective. The Nationals want to win this year, so it’s not out of the question that the Nats could go after a huge name to supplant Storen and knock him to the 8th inning, given them a really solid 1-2-3. However, it’s likely that Washington will go with Storen as its closer in the chase for the NL East title. BUY/SELL: None.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs definitely could be looking for bullpen help, specifically Jonathan Papelbon. Motte has been good since leading the committee, but they have been linked to Papelbon pretty heavily, and any good-to-great reliever would likely take over the 9th inning in Chicago. The Cubs are still playing for this year, so they could make moves, but they may be more concerned with starting pitching rather than the bullpen, where there are plenty of arms, including Rafael Soriano, who may join the roster after the All-Star break. BUY/SELL: None.

Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman is going to be expensive when his deal ends after this season, but Cincinnati doesn’t mind spending money despite calling themselves small market. The Reds likely won’t deal him, and if they did, he’d be the closer wherever he went. BUY/SELL: None.

Milwaukee Brewers – K-Rod is likely going to be on the move. He will probably close wherever he goes, but this opens the door for Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith. The problem is K-Rod’s backloaded contract, with a lot of money tied up for next year if anybody takes him. It takes two to make a trade, and with a year left on his deal, the Brewers may not have anywhere to move him. BUY: Jeremy Jeffress, SELL: Francisco Rodriguez.

Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates lead the NL Wild Card by 5.5 games and Mark Melancon put together an All-Star campaign in the first half of the season. BUY/SELL: None.

St. Louis Cardinals – Trevor Rosenthal has been great for the Cardinals, though he was scratched from the All-Star roster due to arm soreness.The NL Central leaders won’t be looking for any bullpen help during the stretch drive. BUY/SELL: None.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks – Brad Ziegler is entrenched as the closer, but he only has a one-year club option on his deal. This is about as attractive as a trade contract can get. Not a true rental, but if you want it to be it can be. If Arizona sells (and a poor start after the All-Star break could be the tipping point), they would probably deal Ziegler. Daniel Hudson would be the beneficiary, with Enrique Burgos also potentially getting some chances. BUY: Daniel Hudson, SELL: Brad Ziegler.

Colorado Rockies – The Rockies are 8.5 games back in the Wild Card, and John Axford is an attractive trade target thanks to his friendly contract. However, the Rockies may want to keep him for the final year of his deal, despite Axford being eligible for a raise through arbitration. If Axford is dealt, Tommy Kahnle and LaTroy Hawkins are the two choices for manager Walt Weiss. BUY: Tommy Kahnle and LaTroy Hawkins, SELL: John Axford.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Kenley Jansen is too good to be replaced and the Dodgers are too good to deal him. BUY/SELL: None.

San Diego Padres – The Padres aren’t ready to blow up their team yet, though Craig Kimbrel has been linked to the Yankees by ESPN’s Buster Olney. If the Yankees indeed want to add Kimbrel to their already deep bullpen, it won’t be cheap, as Kimbrel is signd through 2017 at lots of money. If the Padres deal set-up man Joaquin Benoit, he won’t close wherever he goes. BUY/SELL: None.

San Francisco Giants – The defending champions are just two games out of the final Wild Card spot and won’t be hunting for another closer to replace an up-and-down Santiago Casilla. BUY/SELL: None.

 

Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: American League

Special Update (Part 1 of 2 — check back tomorrow for the National League)

—–
Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR – AL relievers
BUY+: None.
BUY: Junichi Tazawa, Jake McGee, Bruce Rondon, Carson Smith, Edward Mujica, Drew Pomeranz.
SELL: Koji Uehara, Brad Boxberger, Joakim Soria, Fernando Rodney, Roberto Osuna.
SELL+: Tyler Clippard.
—–

AL East

Baltimore Orioles – Baltimore’s pen is as strong as any in the league right now with the 1-2 punch of Zach Britton and Darren O’Day. They are contending, so they’re unlikely to sell, and Britton has been lights out, so they’re probably not buying relief help either. They’ll likely stand pat on everything. BUY/SELL: None.

Boston Red Sox – The Red Sox are still in it, but they are currently in last place, 6.5 games back. If things take a turn for the worse, Koji Uehara could be on the move. He only has the rest of this year and next year left, but at $9 million per season, it would be tough for someone to take him on and not use him as a closer. Any closer that could move, though, becomes a light sell target for these purposes. Uehara is the man as long as he stays, but if Boston starts selling, he’s one of a few guys they could legitimately find buyers for. Let’s give a light buy for Tazawa for the same reasons, as he still has arbitration years left, so he’s unlikely to be traded away. BUY: Junichi Tazawa, SELL: Koji Uehara.

New York Yankees – The Yankees are currently in first, and most of their bullpen concern is from possible injuries and not trades. Miller has a trade-friendly contract (4 years, $36 million), but with the Yankees contending, they won’t be sellers. They could add bullpen depth due to uncertainty behind Miller and Dellin Betances, but those are the only guys who will get consistent save opportunities. BUY/SELL: None.

Tampa Bay Rays – Tampa Bay is home to one of the league’s most unsettled bullpens. The Rays are still contending in the AL East, but they are playing worse than their record would indicate (they have a -9 run differential). If they play poorly over the next two weeks, they could sell quickly, but if so, it’s actually unlikely that they would want to move Brad Boxberger or Jake McGee, based on their team-friendly contracts. They are both relatively young and still have a couple years of team control. (Kevin Jepsen is more likely to get traded away.) We’ll place a light sell tag on Boxberger, and light buy on McGee, because McGee has been absolutely dominant since coming back (he has only given up runs once in 19 appearances) and Boxberger has struggled a bit lately, taking 2 straight losses earlier this month. Long term, McGee could become the closer, but neither player will be traded. BUY: Jake McGee, SELL: Brad Boxberger.

Toronto Blue Jays – It’s a pretty messy situation in Toronto’s bullpen. As a result, they have been linked to several closers who could become available via trade, including Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez and maybe Glen Perkins or Koji Uehara. Either way, we’re going to place the sell tag on 20-year-old Roberto Osuna, who would likely get immediately replaced as closer if Toronto trades for one. Osuna could be traded himself, too. SELL: Roberto Osuna.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox – The White Sox are all but out of it, so they likely will be selling. Rotation pieces are the ones more likely to go than the bullpen, but good relievers on bad teams are always potential targets. David Robertson just signed a 4-year deal, though, so it would be hard to imagine them throwing that out unless a huge prospect comes back. BUY/SELL: None.

Cleveland Indians – The Indians could be sellers at 11 games back in the AL Central, but they probably wouldn’t be trading Cody Allen. If they buy, they might look to add a late inning reliever, but we don’t see Allen being displaced. BUY/SELL: None.

Detroit Tigers – At the All-Star Break, the Tigers are 9 games out in the AL Central, but still are in striking distance for one of the two Wild Card spots. If the Tigers are going to be in contention at the trade deadline, they’re going to have to surge without Miguel Cabrera, who is out the next several weeks with a calf strain. If the Tigers are still way out of it come July 31, they could consider trading Joakim Soria, a proven commodity whose contract expires at the end of the year. No one else in this bullpen stands out, so we’ll go with Bruce Rondon as the most likely man to close if Soria is moved. BUY: Bruce Rondon, SELL: Joakim Soria.

Kansas City Royals – The Royals have the best bullpen in the league, and probably wouldn’t want to break it up. They may deal one of their surplus guys to get help elsewhere, but there’s no way those deals would involve Greg Holland or Wade Davis. Nobody they would trade for would become a closer immediately in KC. BUY/SELL: None.

Minnesota Twins – With the Twins in second place, they probably won’t be sellers, and Perkins has one of the friendliest deals for a top-level closer (he makes $6 million next year and in 2017, with a club option for 2018). It’s unlikely they would replace him, but they could be buyers of bullpen help behind him. BUY/SELL: None. 

AL West

Houston Astros – The first-place Astros will likely be buyers at this point, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be trading for a replacement for Luke Gregerson. Still, Houston’s GM, when he’s not getting hacked, is actively looking for a “flame-throwing bullpen arm.” We’ll put a light sell on Gregerson as he might get supplanted if Houston decides to make a big move for someone like Aroldis Chapman. SELL: Luke Gregerson.

Los Angeles Angels – Angels closer Huston Street is currently battling a groin injury, but recently said he’s improving. He’s going to play catch on Sunday as part of the rehab process, and could be back sometime soon. He’s the man for the Angels, and it would be surprising if the team traded for closer help as Joe Smith is a pretty capable — albeit temporary — replacement. BUY/SELL: None.

Oakland Athletics – Tyler Clippard is the least likely player to still be closing at this time next month. A free agent next year for the notoriously stingy A’s, Clippard is effective, but not dominant, and has already been featured in trade rumors. He’s a typical guy the A’s would move if they were going to sell, which, with Oakland 10 games out, seems like a real possibility. If they make a move, that could lead to a closer-by-committee between veteran Edward Mujica and former starter Drew Pomeranz, the latter of whom hasn’t given up a run since June 19. BUY: Edward Mujica, Drew Pomeranz, SELL+: Tyler Clippard.

Seattle Mariners – The M’s are 9 games out at this point, so they may be looking to sell at the deadline. Look for Seattle to do whatever they can to trade closer Fernando Rodney, who is a free agent at the end of the year and has been quite shaky for most of the year. Rodney’s exit could clear the way for Carson Smith to take over the full-time job, if he hasn’t done so already. BUY: Carson Smith, SELL: Fernando Rodney.

Texas Rangers – The Rangers were shopping for bullpen help when they took Neftali Feliz out of the closer role, and have been linked to Jonathan Papelbon, but they stumbled upon Shawn Tolleson, who has locked the gig up. It’s possible the Rangers would want to get a more established guy, but Tolleson has been excellent, and has only blown one save all season. BUY/SELL: None.