Mark Melancon’s woes continue; Joe Nathan nears return

April 22, 2015

Pittsburgh Pirates – Mark Melancon had another rough outing on Tuesday in what has been a less than stellar year for the Pirates closer. His velocity has been down all season and his ERA moved to 8.53 after he allowed three runs on Tuesday. Melancon doesn’t “pay attention” to the drop in his fastball and manager Clint Hurdle was quick to point out that even with a slight dip, “there’s no injury.” But something doesn’t seem right with Melancon, and fantasy owners should look for him to be added to the hot seat in this week’s column.

Hierarchy remains: Melancon | Watson | Hughes.

Detroit Tigers – Joe Nathan is eligible to return from the DL on Wednesday after he completes a rehab assignment in Toledo. If everything goes as planned, he could be ready as early as Friday, though Brad Ausmus was less sure of that timetable than Nathan.

Hierarchy remains: Soria | Chamberlain | Krol.

Philadelphia Phillies – Luis Garcia has been terrific for the Phillies this season and he picked up his second hold of the year on Tuesday. Garcia has not allowed a run since Sept. 10, 2014, and has struck out seven batters in his last six innings of work, including two on Tuesday. With Jake Diekman’s ERA a robust 13.50, Garcia is the safer bet in the seventh inning going forward.

Updated hierarchy: Papelbon | Giles | Garcia.

Kansas City Royals – Kelvin Herrera was suspended five games for Sunday’s nastiness, and he will appeal that suspension, a process that is estimated to take two weeks to complete. Herrera will be available during the appeal, which is good news for the Royals as they try and get Greg Holland back off the DL.

Hierarchy remains: Davis | Herrera | Frasor.

Houston Astros – Chad Qualls chalked another one up for the Vulture Save Watch with a clean ninth inning.

Hierarchy remains: Gregerson | Qualls | Neshek.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Bryan Shaw, Cleveland Indians – Cody Allen has thrown 48 pitches over the last two games; Bryan Shaw does have three straight appearances under his belt, but has been extremely efficient over the last two.
2. Roberto Osuna/Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays – John Gibbons has mixed and matched relievers for the past week.

Miguel Castro blows save, Wade Davis replaces Holland as closer

April 19, 2015

Toronto Blue Jays – Miguel Castro blew his first save of the season yesterday.  This was the first earned run given up by Castro, who has gotten off to a good start to the season much to the delight of the scout who signed him.   Brett Cecil pitched a scoreless 10th and picked up the win after Josh Donaldson hit a walk-off homer in the bottom of the inning.  This all comes just one night after Cecil had a terrible outing, and it looked like Castro had the chance to solidify himself as the closer.  With Castro and Cecil pitching on back-to-back days, Osuna could get the call on Sunday if there is a save opportunity and further complicate things in the Blue Jays bullpen.

Hierarchy remains: *Castro | Osuna | Cecil.
*closer-by-committee

Kansas City Royals — Greg Holland has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a right pectoral strain.  The injury does not appear to be serious, but Holland will be rested for about a week.  Wade Davis will take over closing duties in his absence, with Kelvin Herrera handling the 8th inning.

Updated hierarchy: Davis | Herrera | Frasor.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Joel Peralta recorded his third save of the season last night.  Chris Hatcher got the last out of the 7th and J.P. Howell pitched the 8th.  Peralta has not given up a hit in his last four appearances and looks to be asserting himself as the primary closer until Kenley Jansen returns.

Hierarchy remains: *Peralta | Hatcher | Baez.
*closer-by-committee

New York Mets — Alex Torres came on to get the last out of the 9th inning and record his first career save.  With Jeurys Familia and Jerry Blevins getting the night off, Carlos Torres made a mess of a 4 run lead to start the 9th.  He gave up three runs and had the tying run on first base, before A. Torres struck out Christian Yelich to end the game.

Hierarchy Remains: Familia | C.Torres | Blevins.

Oakland A’s — Jesse Chavez recorded a save yesterday by pitching the last 3.2 innings after starter Jesse Hahn left with an injury.  Chavez does not factor into the A’s late inning plans but Sean Doolittle will when he returns and he is making progress.

Hierarchy remains: Clippard | O’Flaherty | Otero.

Tampa Bay Rays — Grant Balfour gave up 3 runs last night, and the Rays decided they have seen enough.  Balfour was designated for assignment after the game.

Updated hierarchy: Boxberger | Jepsen | Frieri.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays – Miguel Castro and Brett Cecil have both pitched in two straight
2. Joaquin Benoit, San Diego Padres – Craig Kimbrel has pitched on back-to-back days and three of the last four.
3. Pedro Strop/Jason Motte, Chicago Cubs – Hector Rondon blew the save yesterday and has appeared in two straight games, throwing a total of 48 pitches.  Pedro Strop has also pitched in two straight so the Cubs could go to Motte if they want to give Strop the day off as well.

Top 30 relievers for holds leagues

Holds are a notoriously difficult category to predict due to the number of variables involved. Relievers who rack up a ton of holds are often solid relievers on good teams who come in ahead of strong closers in the 7th and 8th innings. Good closers will prevent very talented relievers from taking over the 9th inning duties, leaving these fantasy studs perfectly positioned to rack up holds every night. Additionally, being on good teams simply provides more hold opportunities because these teams are more often ahead in the late innings. Because it is difficult to predict injuries and changes in the hierarchy before the season starts (that’s why we are here!), the following rankings are those pitchers most likely to get a lot of holds over the course of the season. There is also value added to guys who are going to be guaranteed to get some saves due to a closer injury to start the season.

1. Wade Davis
2. Andrew Miller
3. Jordan Walden
4. Jason Grilli
5. Tyler Clippard
6. Jake Petricka
7. Tony Watson

With the exception of Clippard, who will at least begin the season as Oakland’s closer with Sean Doolittle injured, this group represents the cream of the set-up man crop. Each of these players will set-up elite closers and reap the benefits of numerous hold opportunities. Their stock will be further bolstered by their stability in their roles. If they out-grow their set-up role, they will trade hold opportunities for save opportunities.

8. Joel Peralta
9. Brad Boxberger
10. Casey Janssen
11. Darren O’Day
12. Jenrry Mejia
13. Joakim Soria

Peralta and Mejia will begin the season in the closer spot, but their real value will be piling up holds once Kenley Jansen and Bobby Parnell return from injury. The early-season saves will be a nice bonus. Joakim Soria will get holds for as long as Joe Nathan can resist imploding this season. Again, Soria’s biggest upside will be stepping in for Nathan, but even if Nathan can stay the Tigers closer, Soria will be setting him up without much of a challenge from Joba Chamberlain or Al Alburquerque.

14. Will Smith
15. Aaron Sanchez
16. J.P. Howell
17. Kelvin Herrera
18. Aaron Loup

LOOGYs are valuable fantasy players for only one reason: holds. Given a hold opportunity, a pitcher can tally one by recording a single out. Lefty specialists will be an asset only if they are consistently used in that role, given the fact that they will not log many innings. Aaron Loup, J.P. Howell, and Will Smith should be used to get tough lefties out on a consistent basis.

19. Casey Fien
20. Bryan Shaw
21. Ken Giles
22. Jumbo Diaz
23. Tanner Scheppers
24. Danny Farquhar

If you checked out our Top 15 Middle Relievers post, you may be surprised to see Ken Giles low on this list. While Giles may be a good fantasy gamble in the saves category if you think Jonathan Papelbon’s Philly days are numbered, Giles’s production in the holds category is much more limited. Even if Pap is the Phillies closer all year, it is likely that the team loses close to 100 games. On a team that bad, holds are harder to come by. That said, when the game is on the line in the 7th or 8th, expect Giles to grab some holds.

25. Pedro Strop
26. Mike Dunn
27. Brad Zeigler
28. Jonathan Broxton
29. Edward Mujica
30. Sergio Romo

Given the number of relievers on each team, these lower-ranked players could still yield significant dividends if they find themselves in advantageous roles. Guys like Pedro Strop and Jonathan Broxton will always make their owners anxious, but when you throw 100 MPH, managers will give you a shot in big spots.

2015 AL Central preview

March 6, 2015

Chicago White Sox – Chicago’s bullpen was a mess right from the start in 2014. To ensure that didn’t happen again, the Sox went out and signed former Yankees closer David Robertson. Jake Petricka and Zach Putnam, who split the closer’s job at the end of 2014, should slide into set-up roles in front of Robertson. The White Sox also added veteran lefty Zach Duke in the off-season, and he could see some time in the later innings.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Robertson | Petricka | Putnam.
Holds candidates: Petricka, Putnam.

Cleveland Indians – The Indians return the core of their bullpen for 2015. Cody Allen took over for John Axford in the middle of 2014 and never looked back. Manager Terry Francona has nothing but good things to say about Allen, who will start a season as closer for the first time in his young career. Brian Shaw and Scott Atchison did a nice job in the 7th and 8th innings last year and should return to those roles to start this upcoming season. Nick Hagadone could be a guy to watch, as he is a big, hard-throwing lefty with good strikeout potential.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Allen | Shaw | Atchison.
Holds candidates: Shaw, Marc Rzepczynski.

Detroit Tigers – Joe Nathan struggled all year in 2014 and hopes to bounce back in 2015. He’ll start the year as the closer, but Joakim Soria will be right behind him if he slips up. The Tigers brought Joba Chamberlain back, and also signed lefty Tom Gorzelanny. Bruce Rondon is one of the most interesting members of the Tigers bullpen, a young flamethrower coming off Tommy John surgery.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Nathan | Soria | Chamberlain.
Holds candidates: Soria, Gorzellany.

Kansas City Royals – The Royals bullpen was one of the main reasons for their successful 2015 season. Closer Greg Holland combined with Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera to form arguably the best relief tandem in baseball. All three guys will return in 2015 and, if that wasn’t good enough, they’ll also get Luke Hochevar back. Hochevar missed all of 2014, but was a dominant set-up man in 2013. Tim Collins was in line to be the Royals’ lefty specialist, but he was pulled from Wednesday’s spring training game and may need Tommy John surgery. Rookie phenom Brandon Finnegan may wind up in the bullpen as a result.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Holland | Davis | Herrera.
Holds candidates: Davis, Herrera.

Minnesota Twins  – Glen Perkins missed the end of the 2014 season, but he’s healthy now, and ready to close again for the Twins. Righty Casey Fien and lefty Brian Duensing will likely start the season in the back end of the bullpen. Tim Stauffer is competing for the fifth spot in the rotation, but if he doesn’t win the job, he could also be an option in the later innings.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Perkins | Fien | Duensing.
Holds candidates: Fien, Duensing.

John Holdzkom: a name to remember

September 17, 2014

Detroit Tigers — After Glen Perkins handed the Tigers a win in the top half of the ninth, Joe Nathan’s poor command and Ezequiel Carrera’s defensive mistake combined to give it right back. After the game, Brad Ausmus confirmed that Nathan remains the closer, 5.10 ERA and all, but Nathan remains on the Hot Seat, where he’s made his home for almost two months now. Although Tigers fans are pining for Joakim Soria, at least this way Nathan is guaranteed more mean tweets to read on camera.

Hierarchy remains: Nathan | Soria | Chamberlain.

Pittsburgh Pirates — John Holdzkom’s major league career now comprises six scoreless innings, two baserunners, and 11 strikeouts. A former prospect rediscovered in an independent league earlier this season, Holdzkom is eliciting comparisons to a young K-Rod, and is a name to remember for October and beyond, especially in holdz holds leagues.

Updated hierarchy: Melancon | Watson | Holdzkom.

Kansas City Royals — Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera came into Tuesday night with the two longest scoreless streaks in the major leagues, a combined 62 2/3 innings that started way back on June 27. Both streaks were snapped in the eighth inning of a 7-5 Royals loss. Kansas City used eight relievers; Davis and Herrera were the only ones to be scored on.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

Chicago White Sox — Zach Putnam earned his fifth save on Tuesday while Jake Petricka stood by if needed. Petricka blew a save on Monday, and Chicago’s bullpen remains in flux.

Hierarchy remains: Petricka | Putnam | Guerra.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Tyler Clippard/Rafael Soriano, Washington Nationals — Drew Storen has pitched in three straight games and Washington has clinched the division.
2. Joakim Soria, Detroit Tigers — Joe Nathan has thrown 68 pitches in the last four days. He’s not pitching on Wednesday.
3. Jared Burton, Minnesota Twins — Glen Perkins has pitched on three of the last four days, including a three-run debacle on Tuesday night that ultimately earned him the cheapest of cheap wins.
4. Kevin Quackenbush, San Diego Padres — Joaquin Benoit could return to the Padres late this week, just in time not to help you in your playoffs.