Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: American League

July 17, 2018

Special Update (Part 1 of 2 — check back tomorrow for the National League)

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Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR – AL relievers
BUY+: Roberto Osuna.
BUY: Zach Britton, Mychal Givens, Diego Castillo, Nate Jones, Joe Jimenez, Trevor Hildenberger.
SELL: Sergio Romo, Joakim Soria, Shane Greene, Fernando Rodney, Hector Rondon, Blake Parker.
SELL+: Ryan Tepera.
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AL East

Baltimore Orioles — The Orioles sure do stink, which means they will be sellers at the deadline. One player who will have plenty of suitors is closer Zach Britton. Among the interested teams are the Phillies, the Red Sox and the Astros, just to name a few. With so many teams interested in Britton, it makes his fantasy outlook very clouded. If he goes to the Phillies, it’s likely he closes for them so Gabe Kapler can send out Seranthony Dominguez whenever he wants. There’s also a good chance he takes the closer’s role from Hector Rondon if he goes to Houston. However, if Britton is shipped to Boston, he’ll simply be a bridge to Craig Kimbrel. Teams are also interested in Brad Brach, and he would most certainly not close if he gets traded. And if Brach stays in Baltimore, will he close for the rest of the year or will they give Mychal Givens an audition for next season? This will be a tricky situation to navigate as we get closer to the trade deadline, so buy and sell with some caution. BUY: Zach Britton, Mychal Givens.

Boston Red Sox — The Red Sox are the best team in baseball and have one of the best closers in Craig Kimbrel. Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes have held up their end of the bargain in the late innings as well, but the Sox have been linked to Zach Britton as well as Fernando Rodney. Rodney will be a nice addition to the Boston bullpen, but won’t supplant Kimbrel as closer. BUY/SELL: None.

New York Yankees –The Yankees are among the many teams interested in Zach Britton, but if they can’t get Britton they may look elsewhere for bullpen help. In any case, Aroldis Chapman’s job is safe, so any pitcher the Yankees do acquire will not close games unless Chapman gets hurt. BUY/SELL: None.

Tampa Bay Rays — The Rays have somehow hung around this year, though unfortunately for them they play in such a top-heavy American League and are doubtful to actually contend. What does this mean for their bullpen? Sergio Romo is on a one-year deal and is a potential candidate to get traded. If that’s the case, Diego Castillo will be a guy to own. Even if Romo stays, it’s worth picking up Castillo, who should get a chance to audition for a role he should have next year. BUY: Diego Castillo; SELL: Sergio Romo.

Toronto Blue Jays — The Blue Jays have already come out and said Roberto Osuna will be their closer when he returns from his suspension. Now’s the time to get whatever value you can out of Ryan Tepera, or stash Osuna if he’s still available. BUY+: Roberto Osuna. SELL+: Ryan Tepera

AL Central

Chicago White Sox — Joakim Soria has been a surprising success for the rebuilding White Sox, especially over the last two months. On the whole, he’s sporting a 2.75 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and 14 saves. He will most certainly be shopped, and wherever he ends up — unless he stays put — it’ll likely be in a setup capacity. If Soria is dealt, Jace Fry, Jeanmar Gomez and Xavier Cedeno are early candidates to lead a committee, at least until Nate Jones returns from the DL. Jones is probably the best long-term bet to close if Soria is gone, but don’t get too excited about any of these options. BUY: Nate Jones; SELL: Joakim Soria.

Cleveland Indians –After Cody Allen, the Cleveland bullpen is a bit of a mess. Relief ace Andrew Miller is still out with a knee injury (though he’s working his way back), and the rest of the cast has been mediocre or worse. Still, they’re in the driver’s seat in the AL Central, so they will certainly be looking for relief help at the deadline, though no acquisition would supplant Allen. BUY/SELL: None.

Detroit Tigers — Shane Greene is healthy again for the going-nowhere Tigers, so that means he becomes a valuable piece ahead of the deadline. His setup man, Joe Jimenez, who pitched well while he was out and is an All-Star this year, would seize the closer’s job for himself if Greene is dealt. But wherever Greene goes, he’ll set up ahead of his new team’s closer. BUY: Joe Jimenez; SELL: Shane Greene.

Kansas City Royals — After trading Kelvin Herrera, the Royals sport one of the worst bullpens in baseball. With the team 25 games out of first place, they will likely try to deal away some pieces, but any of Wily Peralta, Kevin McCarthy, Tim Hill or Brandon Maurer won’t close anywhere if traded and aren’t reliable options if they stay. Still, though, Peralta has pitched well and may seize the KC job for the rest of the year with a few more clean saves. BUY/SELL: None.

Minnesota Twins — Fernando Rodney has had another solid campaign in his age 41 season, leading some teams to inquire about his availability before the deadline. Changing teams is nothing new for Rodney, who has played for SIX different squads since 2015! Expect the Twins to trade him if the right deal comes along. In his stead, we like Trevor Hildenberger, who has been solid this season. Ryan Pressly would likely set him up as Addison Reed is shelved with a triceps injury. BUY: Trevor Hildenberger; SELL: Fernando Rodney.

AL West

Houston Astros –With a playoff birth all but locked up, the Astros are widely expected to firm up their one major weakness: the ninth inning. Although Hector Rondon has been a revelation, Houston could still look to upgrade to Raisel Iglesias, Zach Britton (whom they almost acquired last July), or even Brad Hand. Either way, Rondon is unlikely to be saving games for this team come October. SELL: Hector Rondon.

Los Angeles Angels — Wild Card hopes are slipping away from the Angels, who might be willing to sell high on any member of their relief committee, including Blake Parker, Cam Bedrosian, or Justin Anderson. This makes this a difficult situation for speculation, as any pitcher who moves will likely see fewer save chances, while the one(s) who stay will reap the benefits. We’ll put a light sell signal on Parker, because he’s the committee leader at the moment. SELL: Blake Parker.

Oakland Athletics — Baseball’s lowest payroll hasn’t kept Oakland out of the thick of the wild card race. Although the team’s rotation is a much bigger area of need than their impressive bullpen, it’s possible that they’ll double down on their strength in order to deploy relievers earlier and earlier. Either way, Blake Treinen’s role should be safe. BUY/SELL: None.

Seattle Mariners — All-Star Edwin Diaz and his league-leading 36 saves aren’t going anywhere, and with Seattle fighting for the playoffs, they aren’t likely to move any other important relievers either. BUY/SELL: None.

Texas Rangers –The Rangers are hopelessly out of contention, but closer Keone Kela is young, cheap, and good, so they’d demand a high price to trade him. Jake Diekman could be a useful lefty on a contender, but he won’t be getting save chances anywhere. BUY/SELL: None.

Victor Arano, Cody Allen, and a bunch of vulture saves

July 5, 2018

Philadelphia Phillies — 23-year-old rookie Victor Arano didn’t quite convert his first save opportunity (June 18), but he made it through two scoreless innings on Wednesday to become the eighth Phillies reliever with a save in 2018. Only five of Arano’s 28 appearances this season have come in late/close situations, but he has good numbers (2.32 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.6 K/9) and could see an increased role going forward.

Hierarchy remains: *Dominguez | Hunter | Neshek.
* = closer-by-committee

St. Louis Cardinals — Although Bud Norris felt a slight “stinger” in his finger during his ninth-inning appearance, causing a slight delay, he stayed on to finish a scoreless inning.

Hierarchy remains: Norris | Hicks | Tuivailala.

Cincinnati Reds — With Raisel Iglesias coming off three straight days of work, Jared Hughes picked up the vulture save that we expected.

Hierarchy remains: Iglesias | Hughes | Garrett.

Miami Marlins — You weren’t surprised to see Brad Ziegler get the Independence Day save for Miami. Nothing surprises you. You read the Vulture Save Watch.

Hierarchy remains: Barraclough | Steckenrider | Ziegler.

Houston Astros — Okay, we were a day late with our call on this one — Hector Rondon got a day off immediately after a 35-pitch outing, leaving Ken Giles to lock down the Independence Day save.

Hierarchy remains: Rondon | Giles | Devenski.

Cleveland Indians — With Wednesday night’s save, Cody Allen became Cleveland’s all-time leader in the category, passing Bob Wickman.

Hierarchy remains: Allen | Ramirez | Perez.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. Jeremy Jeffress — Corey Knebel has gone in three straight, and we think Josh Hader will get two days off after his three-inning performance on Tuesday. Jeffress threw 23 pitches yesterday but is coming off four days’ rest.

Zach Britton records save while Arodys Vizcaino battles injury

June 24, 2018

Baltimore Orioles — After a rough outing on Friday night, the Orioles sent Zach Britton right back out there in a save situation, and he pitched a scoreless inning for his first save in 2018.  Britton will continue to see save chances while the Orioles try to boost his trade value.

Hierarchy remains: Britton | Brach | O’Day. 

Atlanta Braves — Arodys Vizcaino was unavailable again on Saturday as he battles a balky shoulder.  The Braves are hopeful Vizcaino will be ready on Sunday, but if his shoulder does not get better, a trip to the disabled list could be possible.

Hierarchy remains: Vizcaino | Winkler | Minter.

Kansas City Royals — After starting pitcher Ian Kennedy went seven innings and the Royals had a one-run lead, manager Ned Yost turned to Wily Peralta for the eighth inning.  Peralta pitched a scoreless inning for the hold and was hitting 97-98 on the radar gun.  Brandon Maurer trotted out for the save chance in the ninth and after striking out the first batter, he gave up back to back singles and a sacrifice fly to allow the game-tying run to score.  Manager Ned Yost said he wanted to give Kevin McCarthy the night off.  This bullpen is very unsettled after the trade of Kelvin Herrera, but we still think Kevin McCarthy is the best reliever to own at this point.

Hierarchy remains: *McCarthy | Hill | Maurer.
* = closer-by-committee

Cleveland Indians — Veteran lefty Oliver Perez recorded the last two outs of the seventh inning last night before giving way to Neil Ramirez in the eighth and Cody Allen in the ninth.  Perez has recorded four holds in his last seven appearances and has quickly moved up in a bullpen desperate for quality innings.

Updated hierarchy: Allen | Ramirez | Perez.

Texas Rangers — Keone Kela picked up the save on Saturday and is a perfect 18 for 18 in save chances this season.  However, with the Rangers in last place in the AL West, they are reportedly making Kela available on the trade market.  We have already seen two closers get traded this season, and we will monitor this situation to see if any teams start making offers.

Hierarchy remains: Kela | Diekman | Martin.

Philadelphia Phillies — Seranthony Dominguez returned to the closer’s role on Saturday and responded with a perfect inning, including two strikeouts.  Dominguez is the best reliever that the Phillies have but don’t expect him to be used like a traditional closer.  Manager Gabe Kapler will likely continue to mix and match and that hurts Dominguez’s chances for racking up saves.

Hierarchy remains: *Dominguez | Ramos | Hunter.
* = closer-by-committee

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today
1. Dan Winkler/AJ Minter – Arodys Vizcaino is battling shoulder soreness.
2. Brad Brach – Zach Britton has pitched in two straight and three of four.

Monday
1. Lou Trivino – Blake Treinen threw 25 pitches in a five out save yesterday and could get Monday off if he pitches on Sunday.
2. Jordan Hicks/Sam Tuivailala – If Bud Norris pitches on Sunday, it will be three in a row.  If Jordan Hicks is also needed on Sunday, it will also be three in a row for him and that could leave Sam Tuivailala for any save chance on Monday.
3. Chaz Roe/Jose Alvarado – Sergio Romo has gone in two straight.  Chaz Roe has also gone in two straight so if they both pitch on Sunday, Jose Alvarado could get the call on Monday.

 

Jordan Hicks and Hector Rondon record saves

June 10, 2018

St. Louis Cardinals — Jordan Hicks recorded his first career save yesterday.  Hicks and closer Bud Norris had both pitched in back-to-back games, but Norris had it a little tougher with the rain delay on Friday so he got the day off.  Norris is still the closer for now but this is becoming something to watch.  Norris was perfect in save chances through May but has already blown two opportunities in June.  Hicks, on the other hand, is pitching well and has seen an uptick in strikeouts in June.  After only recording 6 strikeouts in over 13 innings in April, he already has 8 strikeouts in only 4 innings in June.

Hierarchy remains: Norris | Hicks | Tuivailala

Houston Astros — With the Astros clinging to a one-run lead on Saturday, they again turned to Hector Rondon to close it out.  Rondon converted the save chance and now has recorded each of the last two saves for the Astros.  Manager A.J. Hinch mentioned that they might set an Astros’ record for how many guys record saves this season.  He also said that he thinks Ken Giles will get save opportunities, but he is not going be afraid to use whoever is pitching well.  Giles stays at the top of the committee and Rondon slides into first in line based on his recent success.

Updated hierarchy: *Giles | Rondon | Devenski.
* = closer-by-committee

San Diego Padres – For the second time already in June, it was Kirby Yates who got the ninth inning instead of Brad Hand.  Hand faced the 3-4-5 hitters in the Marlins lineup in the eighth inning for his third hold in his past five appearances.  That left Yates for the ninth and he converted his second save.  We aren’t ready to declare this a committee yet, but it’s clear the Padres aren’t afraid to use Hand before the ninth and Yates should continue to see saves in those situations.

Hierarchy remains: Hand | Yates | Stammen.

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs decided to give Brandon Morrow a second day of rest on Saturday, and they used Steve Cishek instead.  Cishek pitched a perfect ninth to pick up his second save of the season.  Brandon Morrow is still clearly the closer but with Cishek and Pedro Strop also pitching well, the Cubs have the luxury of giving Morrow more days off throughout the year.

Hierarchy remains: Morrow | Cishek | Strop.

Baltimore Orioles — Darren O’Day has been activated from the DL, and Zach Britton could be back as soon as tomorrow.  Even though O’Day was closing before he went on the DL, he will likely work in a set-up role for Brad Brach at this point.

Updated Hierarchy: Brach | O’Day | Bleier.

Tampa Bay Rays — Chaz Roe secured his first career save on Saturday.  Roe came on in the eighth inning with two on and two out and got Jean Segura to ground out.  Roe returned for the ninth and pitched a scoreless inning for the save.  Jose Alvarado was warming up so he likely would have come on for the save if Roe ran into any trouble.  This situation is still very unsettled so it will be hard to rely on any one guy for saves at this point.

Hierarchy remains: *Alvarado | Romo | Roe.
* = closer-by-committee

Oakland A’s — Santiago Casilla has returned from the disabled list.  Casilla is an interesting case because he has not been used in a set-up role much this season, but when Treinen had an injury scare at the end of April, Casilla was the one who got the call as the closer.  He will likely not be a good option for holds but could still be an option to close when Treinen is not available.

Updated hierarchy: Treinen | Trivino | Casilla.

Cleveland Indians — Neil Ramirez came on in the eighth of a tie game yesterday and pitched two scoreless innings.  Ramirez has yet to allow a run in five appearances in June and with most of the Indians’ bullpen struggling, he seems to be gaining trust from manager Terry Francona.

Updated hierarchy: Allen | Ramirez | Otero.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today
1. Joe Jimenez – Shane Greene has pitched in three straight games.
2. Neil Ramirez/Dan Otero – Cody Allen has pitched in two straight, and four of five.  Ramirez threw 30 pitches over two innings yesterday.
3. Justin Anderson – Blake Parker has pitched in two straight and three of four.
4. David Robertson – Aroldis Chapman has also pitched in two straight and three of four.

Luis Garcia gets save for Phillies while Brad Ziegler keeps giving up runs

May 27, 2018

Philadelphia Phillies – Seranthony Dominguez continued his scoreless streak and also recorded his first win after the Phillies took the lead in the bottom of the eighth.  Who got the call for the save in the ninth?  Luis Garcia, of course.  Garcia pitched a scoreless inning to pick up his first save of the season.  The Phillies are in full committee mode and have a number of options to close out games.

Hierarchy remains: *Neris | Ramos | Dominguez.
* = closer-by-committee

Miami Marlins – The Marlins called on their closer Brad Ziegler to pitch the ninth inning of a tie game, and it didn’t go well.  Ziegler took the loss, giving up three runs while only recording two outs.  Ziegler’s ERA is now 7.54, but he is also 9 for 9 in save chances.  It’s pretty hard for a closer to lose his job without blowing a save, but Ziegler has to be on the edge.

Hierarchy remains: Ziegler | Barraclough | Steckenrider. 

Cincinnati Reds — Jared Hughes got his second straight save chance since Raisel Iglesias got hurt, and although he made it very interesting by loading the bases with no outs, he was able to convert.  Hughes should continue to be the primary closer while Iglesias is out, but he has pitched in five of the past seven games and may need some rest.  David Hernandez got the eighth inning hold ahead of Hughes yesterday and could be an option, along with left Amir Garrett, if Hughes is unavailable.

Updated hierarchy: Hughes | Garrett | Hernandez.

Oakland A’s — The A’s placed Santiago Casilla on the DL with a sore right shoulder.  The A’s are hopeful Casilla doesn’t miss much time, but Lou Trivino and Yusmeiro Petit should fill in while he is out.

Updated hierarchy: Treinen | Trivino | Petit.

Cleveland Indians — Andrew Miller has returned to the DL, and has no timetable for return.  The Indians bullpen has really struggled this year, but Dan Otero got the job done on Saturday night by getting the last two outs of the eighth.  The Indians will likely continue to use the veteran righty in a late-inning role.

Updated hierarchy: Allen | Otero | Olson.

New York Mets — The struggles continued for AJ Ramos on Saturday.  He entered the game in the fifth inning with the Mets down just one, but he gave up three runs and could not even finish the inning.  It’s hard to imagine the Mets using Ramos in any meaningful innings anytime soon.  Look for Seth Lugo to take his place in the 7th and 8th inning.

Updated hierarchy: Familia | Gsellman | Lugo.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today
1. Matt Barnes – Both Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly have pitched in two straight and four of five.
2. Amir Garrett/David Hernandez – Jared Hughes has pitched in five of the last seven games.
3. Alex Colome – Edwin Diaz has appeared in two straight and four of the past five.
4. Dan Otero/Tyler Olson – Cody Allen has gone in back-to-back games and three of four.
5. Brandon Kintzler – Sean Doolittle has gone in two straight, including a five out save on Thursday.

Monday
1. Tony Watson – If Hunter Strickland pitches on Sunday, it will be three straight.
2. Robert Gsellman – The Mets play a doubleheader on Monday so Gsellman could get a shot if the Mets have save opportunities in both games, especially if Familia pitches on Sunday.
3. AJ Minter – The Braves are the other team in the doubleheader so Minter could see a save chance for the same reason listed above.