In a move that encapsulates the volatile market for saves this season, Tony Vitello summoned Ryan Walker with one at the top of the sixth against the Mets, with the following explanation:
He recorded a strikeout against Luis Robert Jr. and induced an inning-ending flyout by Mark Vientos, throwing 12 pitches (66.7 Strike%) without a whiff.
Blade Tidwell notched his first save, logging three scoreless frames against his former team, scattering two hits and striking out two in an eventual five-run win. He threw 37 pitches (64.9 Strike%) and produced seven whiffs (18.9 SwStr%). This usage pattern adds another bullpen into the fantasy landscape without a defined closer. Will this be an isolated situation or a signal that Vitello will rely on a matchup-based approach he hinted at in this post from February by Susan Slusser for The San Francisco Chronicle:
With this in mind, some notes of interest from potential candidates in a potential shared save approach.
Keaton Winn
Through three games, he has notched a hold with six strikeouts versus one walk (50 K-BB%), a 70.7 strike percentage, a 0.33 WHIP, a 26.8 percent swinging strike rate, and a 52.2 contact percentage allowed. However, he has produced all of his whiffs on his split-fingered fastball in this limited sample.
Caleb Kilian
He’s been scoreless in both outings this season, retiring all eight batters faced with three strikeouts (37.5 K-BB%), a 12 percent swinging strike rate, a strike percentage of 68, and a 75 percent contact rate allowed. He has a 7.1 percent swinging strike rate with his four-seam fastball and a 33.3 swinging strike percentage with his knuckle-curve while mixing in a sinker and a slider. Like Winn, it’s a small sample size with little high-leverage experience.
Erik Miller
His next save will be the first of his career, but he has recorded 24 saves in the two previous seasons. He would be strictly used against a left-handed hitting pocket in the ninth based on his career .257 weighted on-base average (wOBA) through 161 left-handed hitters faced in his career with 52 strikeouts versus 23 walks (18 K-BB%). His Achilles’ heel has been a 1.19 WHIP against them; traffic in save situations increases the level of difficulty.
Only Vitello knows how his usage patterns will proceed. It may have been an isolated incident for Walker in this contest. Still, fantasy managers must prepare for the possibility of fluidity, especially given his results during save situations last season:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HrgJK/1/
Here are the results of interest from the other two games in this limited slate.
Atlanta Braves
Recording his first save of the season and the second of his career, Osvaldo Bido closed out a lopsided win over Arizona, tossing three innings, giving up two hits, an earned run, and a walk. He threw 42 pitches (26 strikes – 61.9 Strike%) and induced four whiffs (9.5 SwStr%). Tyler Kinley fired a clean sixth and struck out one on 10 pitches (60 Strike%) with one whiff.
With Bido’s and Tidwell’s saves, 39 different pitchers have recorded a save this season, and six have extended three-inning saves (12 percent) of the 50 saves posted through last night’s contests.
Minnesota Twins
Avoiding a sweep, but remaining turbulent with leverage usage patterns, the Twins finished a four-run win against the Royals. Justin Topa worked into and then out of trouble in a non-save outing at the bottom of the ninth. Jonathan India reached on an error, and Isaac Collins drew a walk before Topa induced a double play groundout by Lane Thomas, followed by a game-ending Kyle Isbel strikeout. It would have been a save chance, but his teammates scored three runs at the top of the ninth.
- Taylor Rogers stranded two runners while striking out his only batter (Jac Caglianone) for his first hold.
- Cole Sands allowed two hits and an earned run during his two-thirds of the eighth, getting credit for his first hold.
- Kody Funderburk fired a clean seventh, striking out one and securing his second hold. This bullpen deployment indicates a matchups-based approach.
This game was not an ideal usage pattern for those who picked up Sands based on his save last week. He was used as the highest-leveraged reliever, facing the top of the Royals’ batting order. As a reminder of how aggressive fantasy players were on Sunday night in the two NFBC overall contests:
- Sands’ NFBC Main Event Results: 21 additions with a $278 maximum bid, and an average winning bid of $136
- Sands’ NFBC OC Results: 212 additions with a $212 maximum bid, and an average winning bid of $65.87
There is time to recoup some value from the aggressive nature of these bids, but the Twins bullpen may continue being a matchups-based matrix, causing frustration throughout the year.
News, Notes, and Observations
Baltimore Orioles
There is no official timeline for a return, but Andrew Kittredge began his rehab outings at Tripe-A on Wednesday:
Houston Astros
Until Josh Hader faces hitters, a timeline for return remains unknown:
And if this timeline shared by Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle is accurate, Hader will not be ready until May.
Los Angeles Angels
In two separate updates by Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register, a note about Kirby Yates:
And within his five takeaways from the Angels’ road trip:
Fantasy players who added Jordan Romano have at least two more weeks of production, with eyes on his 3.02 xERA and 3.43 SIERA, which foretell a migration to the mean.
Minnesota Twins
Understanding the team may burn and churn relievers this season, this signing made sense:
Minnesota also traded for Garrett Acton for bullpen depth in a minor league transaction with Miami.
Philadelphia Phillies
A much-needed boost may arrive soon for the Phillies, Orion Kerkering:
San Diego Padres
If Jason Adam appears in consecutive games this weekend, he will be activated on Monday, providing a stable late-inning presence and helping the team maximize Mason Miller’s workload by reducing multi-inning appearances.
San Francisco Giants
First, the team placed José Buttó on the 15-day injured list:
Neither of these relievers has begun a rehab progression in live games, but they are on pathways to return:
Tampa Bay Rays
An Edwin Uceta update from Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times:
Definitely good news, but again, no timeline until he’s pitching in minor-league rehab contests.
Relievers on the Radar
There is already some unrest in certain bullpens, making these relievers worth tracking for performance and usage during this weekend’s games.
Erik Sabrowski (CLE)
- Through four games, he’s recorded six strikeouts against two walks (30.8 K-BB%) with a 0.55 WHIP, and a 23.7 percent swinging strike rate across 3.2 scoreless innings.
Graham Ashcraft (CIN)
- He has posted two holds over four scoreless outings with an 8:2 K:BB (37.5 K-BB%), a 1.00 WHIP, a 20.8 percent swinging strike rate, and a 59.5 contact percentage allowed.
Connor Phillips (CIN)
- The good news is that he notched his first career save on March 30, working around two walks. However, this remains a theme and caps his potential upside. He’s issued five walks while recording five strikeouts in his four innings of work this season. But his 25.6 percent swinging strike rate with his sweeper remains tantalizing.
Gregory Soto (PIT)
- It’s encouraging that he’s produced a 66.2 strike percentage in his limited sample size with the Pirates. One recalls a similar situation where a high-velocity southpaw reshaped his career with this franchise (Aroldis Chapman). Through four games, spanning 4.1 innings, Soto has a 0.69 WHIP with eight strikeouts versus two walks (35.3 K-BB%) with a 16.9 percent swinging strike rate, and a 59.3 contact percentage against.
Bryan Baker (TB)
- He has not received a save chance yet, but has appeared in the ninth inning in both of his outings this season. He’s retired all six batters faced, two via strikeout (33.3 K-BB%), with a 21.7 percent swinging strike rate and a paltry 54.3 contact percentage allowed. It’s a small sample size, but an intriguing one in a struggling leverage ladder.
Jacob Latz (TEX)
- He’s made a spot start and retired the side in his only relief outing this season. His role remains in flux with the Rangers, but if his velocity and whiff rates rise as a reliever, he could work himself into his team’s closer-by-committee rotation.
Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe, and be well.
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