Closer Monkey’s Leverage Ledger | 4.2.2026

Wednesday’s full slate resulted in four wins and losses by relievers, with seven saves converted. Here are the saves in condensed form: 

Today’s three takeaways include: Emilio Pagán, Cade Smith, and the Nationals’ late-inning machinations. As for the vulture options across today’s slate: 

Vulture Save Options for 4.2.2026

  • John Schreiber (KC): After Erceg was forced into action last night, providing him a day off with a short turnaround makes sense, opening the door for Schreiber to notch another vulture save this week. 

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Although it was April Fools yesterday, it came as no surprise that Kansas City placed its closer on the 15-day injured list:

Looking at the team’s upcoming schedule, if there are no setbacks, he should rejoin the team on the 14th when they start a series in Detroit. It’s convenient this injury coincides with his appreciable drop in velocity this season, and if this does not bounce back, his leverage role may be reduced. As for last night’s game versus Minnesota, at one point, the Royals led 12 – 1, but as this note implies, the bullpen struggled, though the weather conditions were a contributing factor:

Bailey Falter took over at the top of the ninth with a seven-run lead, but created chaos, allowing three hits, three earned runs, and two walks while retiring one batter, prompting his removal, and a save opportunity for Lucas Erceg. He entered with two runners on and one out when the lead shrank to four, inducing a pop-out by Austin Martin and a game-ending fielder’s choice groundout against James Outman for his second save, throwing seven pitches (71.4 Strike%) with one whiff (14.3 SwStr%).

Once Estévez begins his rehab, his velocity reports must be monitored closely, but he’s one of the more challenging decisions for fantasy players with short benches and no injured reserve designations moving forward, especially if Erceg entrenches himself as the preferred save option.

Updated Hierarchy: Lucas Erceg | Matt Strahm | John Schreiber

Three Takeaways

Pagán and count leverage: Last year did not go well for Ryan Helsley or Devin Williams, partly because of their struggles when hitters were ahead in the count. It’s very early, but there are some things going on under the hood with Emilio Pagán. In Wednesday’s non-save outing, he allowed three hits, including a two-run home run by Bryan Reynolds, and a hit batter while recording two strikeouts at the top of the ninth against Pittsburgh. He threw 33 pitches (19 strikes – 57.6 Strike%) and produced six whiffs (18.2 SwStr%). In 2025, he owned a 65.5 strike percentage and threw first strikes 64.4 percent of the time. In this year’s limited sample, his strike percentage sits at 61.1 percent with a paltry 35.3 percent first-strike rate. It was a 2-1 count when Reynolds launched his home run:

When batters are ahead this year, Pagán has the following splits by pitch, understanding it’s a small sample size:

  • Four-seam results with the batter ahead: .991 xSLG and .570 xwOBA
  • Split-fingered fastball results with the batter ahead: 1.682 xSLG and a .871 xwOBA

It’s not as steep as other relievers, but he’s also working with reduced velocity:

This can improve as the weather warms, but if his velocities remain in line with 2024, he finished with a 1.34 WHIP.

Hierarchy Remains: Emilio Pagán | Tony Santillan | Graham Ashcraft

Cade Smith and his four-seam: After recording two outs, Cade Smith allowed a solo home run by Freddie Freeman, followed by a game-ending deep flyout by Will Smith, finishing a three-run win over the Dodgers in a non-save appearance.

He threw 19 pitches (13 strikes – 68.4 Strike%) and only induced one whiff. It’s not the start fantasy players hoped for. He’s allowed at least a run in three consecutive outings, resulting in a 1.50 WHIP with three strikeouts versus one walk across four innings. His four-seam fastball has accounted for 12 of his 14 batted ball events early on, with zero barrels, though it feels like more, given his 40 percent line drive rate this season. Although his hard hit percentage this year sits below last year’s, Smith has a .353 xBA, a .671 xSLG, and a .434 xwOBA with his fastball. His home run last night was low-and-in to a left-handed hitter and he was successful in previous seasons with this heatmap with the four-seam:

Like real estate, location matters. This should improve going forward, but his next few outings will be tracked.

Hierarchy Remains: Cade Smith | Shawn Armstrong | Erik Sabrowski

Butera’s high jinks in high-leverage situations: Deploying three relievers at the bottom of the ninth did not result in a win. Cole Henry suffered his first loss and a first blown save, taking over with two runners on and two outs in the ninth, giving up a game-tying two-RBI single by Edmundo Sosa, issuing a walk, then retiring Brandon Marsh on a flyout. In the tenth, he gave up J.T. Realmuto’s lead-off single, followed by a walk-off Justin Crawford single. PJ Poulin was summoned with a runner on and issued two walks, one of which resulted in an earned run, earning him his second hold over one-third of the ninth. Clayton Beeter stranded two runners in the eighth, but was removed after Trea Turner’s single and Kyle Schwarber was on deck. Beeter gave up a hit, an eventual earned run, while getting credit for his first hold during his combined inning of relief. There may be many days like this in 2026 for the Nationals while Blake Butera determines how roles are defined, or not, during his first season as a manager in the majors. It’s tough trusting any of them, even Beeter, when save chances are not assured.

Updated Hierarchy: *Clayton Beeter | *PJ Poulin | *Cole Henry

*= closer-by-committee

Here are the remaining leverage events of interest from Wednesday’s slate.

American League

Houston Astros

The good news is Bryan Abreu increased his velocity in this outing, producing three strikeouts.

However, he also left a slider over the plate that Roman Anthony deposited over the wall in left-field:

Abreu threw 16 pitches (75 Strike%) and generated seven whiffs (43.8 SwStr%). It’s been a rough start to the season for the reliever, but if he mitigates contact, a rebound may be in the offing on his team’s road trip.

  • Kai-Wei Teng allowed Wilyer Abreu’s solo shot in the eighth and recorded a strikeout.
  • Bryan King fired a clean seventh, striking out one for his first hold.
  • A.J. Blubaugh notched his first hold, retiring the side and striking out one in the sixth.

Hierarchy Remains: Bryan Abreu | Bryan King | Kai-Wei Teng

New York Yankees

Forced into action at the bottom of the eighth with the bases loaded, David Bednar gave up Cal Raleigh’s two-RBI double before recording an inning-ending strikeout of Julio Rodríguez. Returning for the ninth, he held on for his second save, giving up Randy Arozarena’s one-out double and Dominic Canzone’s two-out RBI single. All told, Bednar logged 1.1 innings with three hits, an earned run, and a strikeout while throwing 40 pitches (27 strikes – 67.5 Strike%) while only inducing three whiffs (7.5 SwStr%).

Noting the small sample size this season provides, Bednar has only produced a 6.3 percent swinging strike rate while allowing more contact (88.1 percent). Thankfully, the quality of contact has been poor, but through three games, his 2.70 ERA accompanies a 4.51 SIERA and a 6.37 xERA.

  • Camilo Doval allowed two hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out one over two-thirds of the eighth before he was lifted.
  • Fernando Cruz retired both batters in the seventh and recorded one strikeout.

Hierarchy Remains: David Bednar | Camilo Doval | Fernando Cruz

Tampa Bay Rays

Boxscore surfing does not always tell the whole story. Griffin Jax suffered his second loss, but as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports, the defense did not do him any favors:

Jax finished with three hits, five runs (three earned), and a walk without recording an out on his ledger for this appearance. His WHIP spiked to 3.50, and he’s only recorded one strikeout versus two walks through four games, spanning two innings. It’s been a less than optimal start to the 2026 season for him. However, his whiff rates must improve and he cannot keep giving up this much contact during his outings. He may need a turn or two in a lower-leveraged situation, which opens the door for a reliever like Bryan Baker to receive a save chance.

Updated Hierarchy: *Bryan Baker | *Griffin Jax | *Garrett Cleavinger

*= closer-by-committee

Texas Rangers

Calling upon their saves leader at the bottom of the fifth did not go well. Tyler Alexander allowed two hits, an earned run, and two walks, facing the Orioles. It’s tough trusting a reliever with a 5.08 SIERA, a 7.7 swinging strike percentage, and a 92.3 percent Z-Contact rate. Carter Baumler worked two innings, allowing a solo home run (Dylan Beavers) among his two hits, and a walk while striking out two. Jacob Latz retired the side on 14 pitches (9 strikes – 64.3 Strike%) without a whiff. Roles in this leverage ladder remain unstable and unpredictable. Fantasy managers should see if Latz gets more leverage work in future contests.

Updated Hierarchy: *Robert Garcia | *Chris Martin | *Jacob Latz

*= closer-by-committee

Toronto Blue Jays

Suffering his first loss, Brendon Little allowed an RBI single by Tyler Freeman, scoring the “ghost runner,” and a walk while striking out one at the top of the tenth. Jeff Hoffman fired a clean ninth, striking out the side on 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) with six whiffs (37.5 SwStr%).

Through four games, he’s posted a 0.75 WHIP with 10 strikeouts versus zero walks (62.5 K-BB%), and a robust 31.8 percent swinging strike rate.

  • Mason Fluharty retired both batters via strikeout while stranding two runners in the eighth.
  • Tommy Nance was tagged with his first blown save, allowing a hit, an earned run, and two walks while striking out one in one-third of the eighth.
  • Tyler Rogers notched his second hold, navigating around two hits during a scoreless outing in the seventh. 

Hierarchy Remains: Jeff Hoffman | Tyler Rogers | Louis Varland

Quick Hits

  • Baltimore Orioles: Another extended outing resulted in a save. Recently promoted, Albert Suárez logged three innings, giving up two hits, an earned run, and a walk while striking out two against Texas, finishing al five-run margin.
  • Detroit Tigers: In a shutout loss against Arizona, Kyle Finnegan navigated around two walks for a scoreless bottom of the eighth, throwing 10 of his 20 pitches for strikes (50 Strike%) with two whiffs.
  • Minnesota Twins: Turning in the only scoreless appearance for his bullpen in a loss in Kansas City, Anthony Banda allowed a hit and recorded a strikeout during the bottom of the eighth. 

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks

Matching his save total from last season, Jonathan Loáisiga completed a combined shutout against the Tigers, navigating around two hits, including a two-out double by Riley Greene, with a game-ending groundout, securing his first save with the Diamondbacks. He threw 16 pitches (9 strikes – 56.3 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (18.8 SwStr%).

  • Juan Morillo recorded his second hold, retiring the side and striking out one in the eighth.
  • Taylor Clarke allowed a hit and struck out two in a scoreless seventh, notching his second hold.

Updated Hierarchy: Paul Sewald | Jonathan Loáisiga | Taylor Clarke

Atlanta Braves

Filling up the strike zone, Raisel Iglesias finished a four-run win over the A’s despite giving up Jacob Wilson’s one-out double, with a scoreless ninth while striking out one. He threw 17 pitches (15 strikes – 88.2 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (11.8 SwStr%). This marked his second appearance, both scoreless, with one strikeout and a 0.50 WHIP.

  • Dylan Lee worked a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit and striking out one.
  • Robert Suarez allowed a hit and recorded a strikeout in a scoreless seventh.

Hierarchy Remains: Raisel Iglesias | Robert Suarez | Dylan Lee

Colorado Rockies

Entering at the bottom of the tenth with a one-run lead, Jimmy Herget recorded his first save since September 30, 2022, retiring the side against the Blue Jays’ top of the lineup on 16 pitches (75 Strike%) without a whiff.

  • Brennan Bernardino collected his first win, retiring the bottom of the order during a clean bottom of the ninth, ahead of his team’s rally in the tenth.
  • Victor Vodnik kept the score tied with a scoreless eighth while giving up a hit.
  • Antonio Senzatela logged two scoreless frames, allowing a hit and striking out three. 

Updated Hierarchy: Victor Vodnik | Jimmy Herget | Juan Mejia

Milwaukee Brewers

In order of appearance, Grant Anderson retired the side and recorded a strikeout at the bottom of the seventh. Aaron Ashby collected his second win, working around a lead-off walk to Jonathan Aranda with a flyout and an inning-ending double play groundout by Junior Caminero in the eighth. At the bottom of the frame, Ashby’s teammates plated six runs. He’s recorded two wins through his first four appearances, spanning 5.2 innings with nine strikeouts, and a 0.88 WHIP.

  • DL Hall gave up a hit and struck out three in a scoreless ninth, closing out a six-run lead. 

Hierarchy Remains: Trevor Megill | Abner Uribe | Ángel Zerpa

New York Mets

Tasked with the extra innings, Tobias Myers suffered his first loss, allowing Masyn Winn’s RBI bloop single at the bottom of the 11th. Myers worked 1.2 innings, yielding a hit, an unearned run, and a walk while striking out one.

Devin Williams tossed a scoreless ninth, walking and striking out one on 18 pitches (50 Strike%) with three whiffs (16.7 SwStr%).

Through three games, he’s posted a 1.00 WHIP with four strikeouts versus two walks (16.7 K-BB%) and a robust 18.4 percent swinging strike rate.

  • Luke Weaver fired a clean eighth, striking out one. Brooks Raley worked a clean seventh, striking out two.
  • Huascar Brazobán suffered his first blown save, letting one of two inherited runners score, yielding a hit and striking out one over two-thirds of the sixth.

Hierarchy Remains: Devin Williams | Luke Weaver | Brooks Raley

Philadelphia Phillies

Benefiting from a tremendous defensive play, Jhoan Duran collected his first win, retiring both batters at the top of the tenth, one via strikeout, one on an inning-ending double play lineout ahead of his team’s walk-off rally. He threw six pitches (66.7 Strike%) and produced two whiffs (33.3 SwStr%).

Through four games, he owns a 1.09 WHIP with six strikeouts against zero walks (42.9 K-BB%) across 3.2 innings.

  • José Alvarado allowed a hit during a scoreless ninth.
  • Zach Pop retired the side and recorded a strikeout in the eighth.
  • Brad Keller struggled, giving up three hits, including a three-run home run by CJ Abrams, while striking out one in the seventh.

Hierarchy Remains: Jhoan Duran | Brad Keller | José Alvarado

Pittsburgh Pirates

Although he warmed up with a three-run lead and three right-handed hitters lined up at the top of the ninth, Gregory Soto retired the side against the Reds’ 6-7-8 lineup pocket and recorded two strikeouts.

It was a non-save situation because his teammates tacked on four runs during the top of the ninth, but the usage pattern indicates Soto is gaining a larger leverage role in this bullpen. He threw 13 pitches (10 strikeouts – 76.9 Strike%) and produced two whiffs (15.4 SwStr%). It must be noted, Dennis Santana had worked in three of the previous four days:

  • Justin Lawrence fired a clean eighth, facing the 3-4-5 hitters, and recorded a strikeout for his first hold.
  • Isaac Mattson notched his first hold, logging 1.1 scoreless frames while yielding a hit.
  • Mason Montgomery issued a walk and served up a two-run home run (Eugenio Suárez), while striking out one during his two-thirds of the sixth, getting credit for his first hold.

Hierarchy Remains: *Dennis Santana | *Gregory Soto | Justin Lawrence

*= closer-by-committee

San Diego Padres

Pressed into action with a runner on and two outs at the top of the eighth, Mason Miller induced an inning-ending popout, then returned for the ninth, allowing a lead-off single by Luis Arraez, then striking out the next three batters for his second save. He threw 19 pitches (15 strikes – 78.9 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (21.1 SwStr%) during his 1.1 scoreless frames.

Miller lost his hitless streak in this outing; before Arraez’s hit, he had not given up one since September 6 of last year. He did extend his active scoreless streak to 24 innings.

  • Adrian Morejon gave up two hits, an earned run, and a walk while striking out one over 1.2 innings for his first hold.
  • Jeremiah Estrada notched his first hold, firing a clean seventh and recording two strikeouts.

Hierarchy Remains: Mason Miller | Jeremiah Estrada | Adrian Morejon

St. Louis Cardinals

Brought into the game at the top of the 11th with the bases loaded and one out, Gordon Graceffo induced a fielder’s choice groundout and a game-ending flyout, then collected his first win on a walk-off rally at the bottom of the inning. Chris Roycroft recorded an out and issued two walks during one-third of the 11th.

  • Justin Bruihl walked one during a scoreless tenth.
  • Riley O’Brien worked a scoreless ninth, giving up a hit and striking out two on 16 pitches (75 Strike%) with four whiffs (25 SwStr%).
  • JoJo Romero retired all four batters faced, one via strikeout, and stranded two runners in the seventh.
  • Ryne Stanek allowed a hit and recorded a strikeout during two-thirds scoreless in the seventh.

This was the second straight time that Stanek was used in the seventh, Romero in the eighth, and O’Brien in the ninth for those scoring at home.

Hierarchy Remains: *Riley O’Brien | *JoJo Romero | *Ryne Stanek

*= closer-by-committee

Quick Hits

  • Chicago Cubs: Closing out a four-run lead, Daniel Palencia worked a scoreless top of the ninth, allowing Yoán Moncada’s two-out single and recording a strikeout on nine pitches (88.9 Strike%) with two whiffs (22.2 SwStr%).
  • San Francisco Giants: As the first reliever in, Caleb Kilian stranded two runners in the sixth and retired all five batters faced, two via strikeout on 15 pitches (11 strikes – 73.3 Strike%) with two whiffs. José Buttó left with an injury in the eighth, but allowed three hits, four earned runs, and four walks while striking out one, throwing only eight of 28 pitches for strikes.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe, and be well. 

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net