Saturday featured a 16-game slate despite a postponement in New York. Relievers recorded seven wins, though two were accompanied by a blown save designation, and converted seven saves. They also suffered six losses and four blown saves. Cleveland deployed its closer in the eighth inning with a lead, A.J. Hinch has fantasy players scrambling again, and a walk-off home run in St. Louis are our topics in today’s takeaways.
Three Takeaways
(1) Clase in the eighth, Cade in the ninth: During a one-run win in Game 1, Cade Smith took over at the top of the ninth with a one-run lead, giving up a lead-off Cedanne Rafaela single, followed by walking Jarren Duran, before retiring the next three hitters for a scoreless ninth, and his third save. He threw 18 pitches (11 strikes – 61.1 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (16.7 SwStr%) while recording a strikeout.
He has a five-game scoreless streak and converted three consecutive saves in as many appearances. Emmanuel Clase fired a clean top of the eighth, facing the Red Sox 6-7-8 hitters, and recorded two strikeouts on 14 pitches (9 strikes – 64.3 Strike%) with three whiffs (21.4 SwStr%) for his first hold.
He was confident and commanded his arsenal well in this outing. After the game, Stephen Vogt explained how Clase would be used, though it seems temporary, in the game recap by Tim Stebbins of MLB.com:
For now:
Updated Hierarchy: *Emmanuel Clase | *Cade Smith | Hunter Gaddis
*= closer-by-committee
(2) Invest in Vest: Taking over at the top of the eighth with a one-run lead during Game 1, Will Vest issued a walk before inducing an inning-ending flyout. He returned for the ninth, retiring the Orioles’ top of the lineup in order, two via strikeout for his third save over his last four appearances. He threw 33 pitches (19 strikes – 57.6 Strike%) and produced five whiffs (15.2 SwStr%).
He’s posted 14 strikeouts against four walks (23.3 K-BB%) with a 0.583 WHIP through 12 innings. During Game 2, Tommy Kahnle preserved the four-run win with a scoreless ninth, walking and striking out one. For fantasy purposes, Kahnle should be used against left-handed pockets in the late innings, and he’s been used like the highest-leveraged reliever since posting his fourth save, not a closer. Vest represents the primary save share, and meaning he projects for the majority of save chances, but they are not assured since Hinch does not use traditional roles by inning in his leverage machinations.
Adjusted Hierarchy: *Will Vest | *Tommy Kahnle | Tyler Holton
*= match-up-based approach
(3) Megill and contact: Entering a tied game at the bottom of the ninth, Trevor Megill retired Brendan Donovan on a lineout, then served up Nolan Arenado’s walk-off home run, resulting in his second loss.
This snapped a modest three-game scoreless streak. He only threw five pitches (80 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s posted a 1.36 WHIP with nine strikeouts versus four walks (15.6 K-BB%) in 7.1 innings. His current 4.91 ERA has a 3.59 SIERA but a 6.12 xERA, which is quite a chasm between the two indicators. Since xERA uses batted ball data, it makes sense to take this another step. As this chart illustrates, he’s allowing more contact in the strike zone (Z-Contact%), more barrels, and more fly balls, a recipe for disaster during high-leverage events:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1T6Gw/1/
This is not isolated for Megill. Since the start of last season, he’s produced 137 batted ball events, allowing 13 barrels (9.5%), 59 hard hits (43.1%), and 68 flyballs (49.6%). Our hierarchy remains unchanged, but those who can stash Craig Yoho preemptively may benefit; however, any change of the guard in Milwaukee may not occur until mid-May or later.
Hierarchy Remains: Trevor Megill | Abner Uribe | Jared Koenig
For the save streamers, a potentially busy day awaits:
Vulture Save Options for April 27
- Cade Smith (CLE): With Clase temporarily working in “lower leveraged” situations, Smith remains in line for upcoming save chances.
- Camilo Doval (SF): Walker has appeared in consecutive games.
- Tony Santillan (CIN): It’s in Coors, but Pagán has pitched in back-to-back contests.
- Kyle Leahy (STL): Helsley and Maton have pitched on Friday and Saturday.
- José Buttó (NYM): If Díaz gets his workload managed, he will not pitch today. If he does pitch, then you have Buttó for Monday.
- Shelby Miller (ARI): If Martinez is deemed “unavailable” again by the staff, he should be in line for the save opportunity.
Doubleheader Odds
- New York Yankees: Prime target in a sweep: Luke Weaver; YOLO: Fernando Cruz
- Toronto Blue Jays: Prime target in a sweep: Yimi García; YOLO: Chad Green
Vulture Save Stashes for April 28
- Yennier Cano (BAL): If Félix Bautista pitches today, he will be off tomorrow.
Here are the remaining leverage events of interest from Saturday.
Closer CliffsNotes
Arizona Diamondbacks
Reserved until the top of the tenth, Justin Martinez suffered his first loss, letting the “place” runner score after throwing a one-out wild pitch. He also issued a walk while facing Atlanta’s 5-6-7-8 hitters, throwing 10 pitches (50 Strike%) without a whiff.
He has a 0.56 WHIP with 11 strikeouts against two walks (27.3 K-BB%) through nine innings but has only appeared in two games since April 18, and we must note the decreased average velocity in this appearance.
- Drey Jameson escaped with a scoreless top of the ninth despite allowing a hit and two walks.
- Jalen Beeks was tagged with his first blown save, giving up two hits, three earned runs, and two walks while striking out one in the eighth.
Hierarchy Remains: Justin Martinez | Shelby Miller | Jalen Beeks
Atlanta Braves
Protecting a one-run lead at the bottom of the tenth, Dylan Lee recorded his first career save, retiring the top of Arizona’s lineup on three consecutive groundouts, throwing 10 pitches (70 Strike%) with one whiff. Raisel Iglesias gets charged with his second blown save and collected his first win after allowing Eugenio Suárez’s game-tying solo home run among his two hits at the bottom of the ninth.
Iglesias threw 10 pitches (70 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He owns a 1.10 WHIP with nine strikeouts against two walks (17.5 K-BB%) across ten innings.
- Daysbel Hernández worked around two walks and recorded a strikeout in a scoreless eighth for his third hold.
- Scott Blewett retired all four batters, three via strikeout.
Hierarchy Remains: Raisel Iglesias | Daysbel Hernández | Dylan Lee
Cincinnati Reds
Appearing for the third time in four days, Emilio Pagán notched his seventh save, allowing a hit, an earned run, and a walk while striking out three at Coors. An interesting scoring decision gave him the earned run, awarding Nick Martini an RBI double. Pagán threw 18 pitches (11 strikes – 61.1 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (22.2 SwStr%).
He’s posted a 0.53 WHIP with 14 strikeouts against two walks (25.5 K-BB%) through 13.1 innings.
- Alexis Díaz fired a clean bottom of the eighth, striking out one for his second hold.
- Scott Barlow worked a clean seventh, recording one strikeout and his fourth hold.
Hierarchy Remains: Emilio Pagán | Tony Santillan | Graham Ashcraft
Kansas City Royals
Shutting the door on his seventh save, Carlos Estévez fired a clean top of the ninth and recorded a strikeout while preserving a combined shutout against the Astros. He threw six pitches, all strikes, and induced one whiff (16.7 SwStr%) while facing the 6-7-8 lineup pocket.
He’s posted a 1.08 WHIP with 11 strikeouts versus nine walks (3.6 K-BB%) in 13 innings.
- John Schreiber navigated around two hits and struck out one in a scoreless eighth, securing his first hold.
- Steven Cruz tossed a clean seventh for his second hold.
Hierarchy Remains: Carlos Estévez | Lucas Erceg | Daniel Lynch IV
Los Angeles Dodgers
Capping a late rally and a four-run win, Tanner Scott retired the side and recorded two strikeouts at the top of the ninth against Pittsburgh. He threw 18 pitches (11 strikes – 61.1 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (11.1 SwStr%).
He has a 0.93 WHIP with 13 strikeouts (25.5 K-BB%) over 14 innings.
- Kirby Yates earned his second win, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out one in a scoreless eighth.
- Evan Phillips stranded two runners and retired both batters, one via strikeout at the top of the seventh.
Hierarchy Remains: *Tanner Scott | *Kirby Yates | Evan Phillips
*= match-up-based with a preferred save share (Scott)
Minnesota Twins
Finishing a four-run win, Jhoan Durán retired the side while facing the Angels’ 3-4-5 hitters on seven pitches (57.1 Strike%) without a whiff. He has a 0.973 WHIP with ten strikeouts against six walks (8.7 K-BB%) across 11.1 innings.
- Louis Varland fired a clean eighth, striking out two.
- Griffin Jax allowed a hit and recorded all three outs via strikeout in the seventh. He threw 19 pitches (14 strikes – 73.7 Strike%) and generated six whiffs (31.6 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless in his last three while striking out seven of 11 batters (63.6 K%).
- Brock Stewart notched his second hold, stranding a runner and retiring two while striking out one in the sixth.
Hierarchy Remains: Jhoan Durán | Louis Varland | Griffin Jax
New York Mets
Completing a combined shutout and converting his seventh save, Edwin Díaz worked around a one-out walk with three strikeouts in Washington, entering against the 5-6-7 lineup pocket. He threw 22 pitches (45.5 Strike%) and generated five whiffs (22.7 SwStr%).
He’s posted a 1.25 WHIP with 20 strikeouts versus seven walks (25.5 K-BB%) in 12 innings.
- Max Kranick stranded a runner while retiring both batters in the eighth, one via strikeout, for his second hold.
- A.J. Minter was credited with his seventh hold, walking one and striking out one, but left his outing with the training staff.
- Reed Garrett notched his ninth hold, scattering two hits in a scoreless seventh.
- Danny Young allowed a hit and recorded three strikeouts in a scoreless sixth, securing his fourth hold.
Updated Hierarchy: Edwin Díaz | José Buttó | Reed Garrett
San Francisco Giants
Despite allowing consecutive singles leading off the top of the ninth, Ryan Walker benefited from a pop-out on a bunt attempt, then bore down, recording consecutive strikeouts against Josh Smith and Joc Pederson. He collected his first win courtesy of a walk-off rally at the bottom of the frame. Walker threw 17 pitches (13 strikes – 76.5 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (23.5 SwStr%). He has a 1.31 WHIP with 12 strikeouts versus two walks (20.4 K-BB%) across 10.2 innings.
- Tyler Rogers tossed a scoreless eighth, giving up a hit, keeping the game tied.
Hierarchy Remains: *Ryan Walker | *Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers
*= closer-by-committee
St. Louis Cardinals
Although he suffered his second blown save, giving up Jackson Chourio’s game-tying two-run home run, Ryan Helsley collected his first win on a walk-off at the bottom of the inning.
He allowed two hits and two earned runs on 16 pitches (9 strikes – 56.3 Strike%) without a whiff. He has a 1.60 WHIP with ten strikeouts against eight walks (4.5 K-BB%) through ten innings. He suffered his second blown save on July 5 last year.
- Phil Maton retired the side and recorded one strikeout for his sixth hold in the eighth.
- Riley O’Brien stranded a runner while retiring his only batter in the seventh, securing his first hold.
- Steven Matz gave up a hit and struck out one in two-thirds scoreless in the seventh for his first hold.
Hierarchy Remains: Ryan Helsley | Phil Maton | JoJo Romero
Tampa Bay Rays
Closing a three-run win in San Diego, Pete Fairbanks allowed Manny Machado’s one-out double and recorded a strikeout in a scoreless ninth, securing his fifth save. He threw 17 pitches (9 strikes – 52.9 Strike%) and induced one whiff.
Through 11 appearances, he has a 1.45 WHIP with ten strikeouts against six walks (9.1 K-BB%) in 10.1 innings.
- Hunter Bigge notched his first hold, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out one in a scoreless eighth.
- Edwin Uceta fired a clean seventh and recorded a strikeout for his third hold.
Hierarchy Remains: Pete Fairbanks | Edwin Uceta | Mason Montgomery
Quick Hits
- Boston Red Sox: Finishing a four-run win in Game 2, Aroldis Chapman fired a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded two strikeouts on 10 pitches (80 Strike%) with five whiffs (50 SwStr%).
- Chicago White Sox: Bulk follower Jonathan Cannon took over at the bottom of the second. He earned his first win, logging 7.2 innings, giving up six hits, three earned runs, and two walks while striking out five.
- Pittsburgh Pirates: Colin Holderman gets tagged with his first loss. He gave up two hits, three earned runs, and a walk without recording an out in the eighth.
- Texas Rangers: Called upon with one out and runners on second and third, Jake Latz let the game-winning score on one pitch, a Patrick Bailey walk-off RBI single. Jacob Webb suffered his first loss, allowing a hit, an earned run, and two walks in two-thirds combined innings.
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