Thursday’s nine-game slate produced fours across the board. Relievers recorded four wins, saves, and holds. They also suffered four losses and four blown saves. In a leverage ladder that lost Joe Jiménez before the season began, a closer struggling with contact was not what Brian Snitker hoped for. Plus, a Reds reliever cannot convert his first save opportunity in the ninth inning and Arizona had a seventh reliever record a save through the team’s first 38 contests.
Three Takeaways
(1) Raisel vs. Quality of Contact: In 15 appearances this season, Raisel Iglesias has allowed six home runs, two more than last season. He has not discriminated: four have been hit by right-handed batters with two by left-handed hitters, three have occurred at home, and three have happened on the road. The good news is that he has a 1.07 WHIP with 18 strikeouts against two walks (26.7 K-BB%) through 15 innings with a 2.46 SIERA. His contact percentage and swinging strike rates are stable compared with last year’s and career levels. It’s not how much contact but the type.
However, his Statcast data shows he has a .367 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), a robust .526 expected weighted batting average on contact, and a 5.28 xERA. He’s already matched his barrels allowed total from last year, seven, in 35 batted ball events versus 175. Here are his updated batted ball trends:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cvCpx/1/
His 20 percent barrel rate and 42.9 hard-hit percentage are career-worsts in this year’s limited sample. With this in mind, here are his pitch usage percentages this season:
He’s throwing fewer change-ups while increasing his sinker use, which may not be the problem. As we view his splits by pitch, the slider has been an issue:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dhIOy/1/
There is no easy fix in this instance, especially with him working with reduced velocity:
In last night’s game, he allowed three hits, including Rece Hinds’ go-ahead two-run home run at the top of the ninth, on, you guessed it, a hanging slider:
Fantasy managers need him to throw more change-ups ahead in the count, which requires command of his arsenal. Hope lies in his SIERA, but if the quality of contact issues persist, the only thing insulating his closer role is the lack of competition on his leverage ladder.
Hierarchy Remains: Raisel Iglesias | Daysbel Hernández | Dylan Lee
(2) Graham cracked: Handed a two-run lead at the bottom of the ninth, Graham Ashcraft issued Ozzie Albies a lead-off walk, a mortal sin during leverage events. Sean Murphy followed with a single, though Rece Hinds did not judge the ball well in right field. With runners on the corners, Ashcraft recorded an out on an RBI sacrifice bunt by Eli White, but Michael Harris II roped a game-tying single, handing him his second blown save. This could have been nerves, and no one knows how this plays out if Hinds makes the catch on Murphy’s hit. Those in keeper leagues will note Luis Mey worked a scoreless tenth, walking and striking out one on 22 pitches (13 strikes – 59.1 Strike%) with two whiffs. He’s turned in three consecutive scoreless outings with four strikeouts against one walk. Taylor Rogers suffered his first loss, allowing Drake Baldwin’s two-out, walk-off RBI single. Rogers finished with a hit, an unearned run, and a walk (intentional – Eli White) while striking out one among his two outs at the bottom of the 11th.
Hierarchy Remains: Emilio Pagán | Tony Santillan | Graham Ashcraft
(3) Ginkel’s on the board: Taking over with a three-run lead at the top of the ninth against the Dodgers’ 8-9-1 lineup lane, Kevin Ginkel secured his first save despite allowing Shohei Ohtani’s solo home run. He threw 18 pitches (55.6 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (11.1 SwStr%).
This represents his first save since April 28 last year. He’s given up at least a run in three of five appearances this season but remains in the mix for saves with multiple injuries in the team’s leverage ladder.
Hierarchy Remains: *Shelby Miller | *Kevin Ginkel | Ryan Thompson
*= closer-by-committee
For the save streamers, a light forecast:
Vulture Save Options for May 9
- Louis Varland (MIN): Durán and Jax have pitched in consecutive contests.
- Mason Montgomery (TB): Fairbanks, Uceta, and Cleavinger have worked in back-to-back games.
Vulture Save Stash for May 10
- Pierce Johnson (ATL): If Iglesias pitches tonight, it will be three appearances in four days.
Here are the remaining leverage events of interest from Thursday.
Closer CliffsNotes
Baltimore Orioles
Taking over at the bottom of the eighth, Yennier Cano walked Harrison Bader leading off the inning, followed by a stolen base. He recorded a strikeout, then walked Byron Buxton, resulting in his removal from the contest. Gregory Soto inherited both runners and let them score on Brooks Lee’s two-RBI double and a run on his ledger, giving up Ty France’s single. Cano finished with two earned runs and two walks while striking out one for his second loss. Soto gave up two hits, an earned run, and a walk while striking out two.
Hierarchy Remains: Félix Bautista | Yennier Cano | Gregory Soto
Boston Red Sox
Completing a combined shutout, Liam Hendriks logged two scoreless innings, allowing one base runner on a hit-by-pitch. He threw 18 pitches (66.7 Strike%) without a whiff.
He owns a 0.25 WHIP across four scoreless innings through three outings in May.
- Garrett Whitlock gave up a hit and a walk while striking out two in a scoreless seventh.
- Justin Slaten collected his first win, retiring all four batters and stranding two at the top of the fifth.
Hierarchy Remains: Aroldis Chapman | Liam Hendriks | Greg Weissert
Minnesota Twins
Slamming the door on his sixth save, Jhoan Durán fired a clean top of the ninth against the Orioles’ 9-1-2 hitters and recorded a strikeout. He threw six pitches, all strikes, and produced two whiffs (33.3 SwStr%).
This extended his scoreless streak to seven games, during which he’s racked up 11 strikeouts against two walks (33.3 K-BB%) with a 0.857 WHIP through seven innings.
- Griffin Jax worked a clean eighth and recorded two strikeouts, keeping the game tied, then collected his first win after his teammates plated three runs at the bottom of the inning.
- Justin Topa tossed a clean seventh, striking out one.
- Cole Sands navigated around two hits for a scoreless sixth.
Hierarchy Remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Louis Varland
Philadelphia Phillies
Entering with a two-run lead at the bottom of the tenth, Matt Strahm allowed Danny Jansen’s RBI single and Chandler Simpson’s single before a game-ending strikeout secured his second save. Strahm threw 18 pitches (13 strikes – 72.2 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (16.7 SwStr%).
- José Alvarado collected his fourth win, giving up a hit and striking out one in a scoreless ninth, throwing 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s posted a 1.22 WHIP with 23 strikeouts versus three walks (26.4 K-BB%).
- Jordan Romano navigated around two hits and recorded a strikeout in a scoreless eighth. He’s been scoreless in his last four appearances.
Hierarchy Remains: *José Alvarado | *Jordan Romano | Orion Kerkering
*= floating closer concept
Tampa Bay Rays
During the top of the tenth, Manuel Rodríguez suffered his first loss, allowing two hits, two runs (one earned), and recording one strikeout. Brandon Marsh’s lead-off RBI double, a sacrifice bunt, and Trea Turner’s single were the contest’s differences.
Pete Fairbanks had his outing take a turn after an errant pick-off attempt let Johan Rojas reach third. A fielder’s choice groundout scored the game-tying run, handing Fairbanks his first blown save. He finished with a hit, an unearned run, and a walk while striking out one.
- Mason Montgomery notched his fifth hold, retiring his only batter and stranding a runner in the eighth.
- Edwin Uceta gave up four hits and three earned runs in the eighth, including Bryson Stott’s three-run home run.
- Garrett Cleavinger retired the side for his third hold in the seventh.
Hierarchy Remains: Pete Fairbanks | Edwin Uceta | Garrett Cleavinger
Toronto Blue Jays
Protecting a three-run lead, Chad Green nailed down his first save with a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded two strikeouts against the Angels’ top of the batting order. He threw nine pitches (77.8 Strike%) and induced one whiff (11.1 SwStr%), filling in with Jeff Hoffman and Yimi García unavailable.
- Yariel Rodríguez worked two scoreless frames, yielding a hit and striking out five on 29 pitches (69 Strike%), and produced seven whiffs (24.1 SwStr%). Appearing on consecutive days, he posted 3.1 scoreless innings, scattering two hits and recording seven strikeouts among 12 batters (58.3 K%).
Hierarchy Remains: Jeff Hoffman | Yimi García | Chad Green
Quick Hits
- Detroit Tigers: Wrapping up a sweep during a ten-run win in Game 2, Beau Brieske tossed a scoreless bottom of the ninth, walking one and striking out two on 17 pitches (8 strikes – 47.1 Strike%) with two whiffs (11.8 SwStr%).
- Kansas City Royals: Finishing a combined shutout, Steven Cruz retired the side and recorded one strikeout against the White Sox 2-3-4 hitters on 12 pitches (75 Strike%) with three whiffs (25 SwStr%). He has a 0.70 WHIP across ten scoreless innings. Chris Stratton fired a clean top of the eighth, striking out two.
- Los Angeles Angels: In order of appearance, Ryan Johnson took over the top of the sixth with a one-run lead. He allowed two hits and a walk before being removed, resulting in three earned runs and his first loss. Brock Burke let all three inherited runners score on two hits and two walks, putting an earned run on his ledger and suffering his first blown save.
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Appearing during a loss, Jack Dreyer logged three scoreless frames, allowing three hits and a walk while striking out one.
Closer Monkey Emails for 2025
This year, the daily emails will change. Those interested in daily free updates with links should subscribe to our page at Substack. Subscribers to the former site will not transfer over; readers must register using the new link.
Premium subscribers can still use this link for daily, ad-free content or submit a $25 payment via Venmo to @gjewett9.
Thanks for being part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe, and be well.
Statistical Credits: