Put your pencils down; the regular season is almost upon us. Tuesday’s slate was limited, but content was still provided, which will be presented differently today. Beginning with Carlos Estévez and this note from Anne Rogers of MLB.com:
In his final tuneup, Estévez allowed a hit and recorded a strikeout while facing minor-league hitters. He threw 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (20 SwStr%). He finishes with a 1.40 WHIP and three strikeouts across five innings, but the concern lies in his fastball velocity, sitting 3.6 miles per hour below last year’s average.
The good news is, he is a slow starter in terms of building up his velocity, beginning with his chart from Brooks Baseball:
And his velocities by month last year, and since his return this one, following a back issue at the start of training camp:
Hope lies in his velocity increasing like it did last April. However, fantasy managers should prepare in case it does not. Since 2022, he’s thrown 1,976 four-seam fastballs, and only 112 were at or below 95 miles per hour, with the following results:
- Estévez four-seams at or below 95 MPH: 20.8 whiff percentage, 15 batted ball events, .400 batting average on balls in play (BAbip), .351 expected batting average (xBA), .398 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), 53.3 hard hit percentage
Last, here is a heatmap of these four-seam fastballs:
I am not sure he will succeed with fastballs in the middle-middle with reduced velocity; elevating them until they recover will be the way. Especially as the preferred save share.
Projected Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Lucas Erceg | Hunter Harvey
Graham Ashcraft
Until we see actual leverage usage patterns, this remains purely speculative. However, he’s one of six pitchers to record a cutter at or above 97 miles per hour last year per Statcast:
As one can see, he did not get great results with them, but in shorter bursts, the velocity may play up, insulating his results. Placement will be pivotal, and here is his pitch heatmap with them at this velocity:
Against left-handed hitters, inside with more elevation would be ideal, inducing weak contact or pop-ups.
In the eighth inning of Tuesday’s exhibition contest, he retired the side and recorded one strikeout in the seventh, making his first one-inning relief appearance. There was no Statcast data available, and predicting how often he uses his slider will be intriguing to track. For reference, his pitch splits:
Getting his cutter closer to a double-digit swinging strike rate and his slider at 20 or better would be ideal. He’s open to being a high-leverage reliever, as this column by Gordon Wittenmyer illustrates:
Terry Francona has kept his leverage plan close to the vest, but Ashcraft was the last reliever used in this game; foreshadowing? Time will tell.
Adjusted Projected Hierarchy: *Graham Ashcraft | *Tony Santillan | *Taylor Rogers
*= closer-by-committee
Red Sox Hierarchy
It’s not absolute, but the bullpen hierarchy for Boston was shared by Alex Cora:
This should prevent fantasy players from being frustrated if Aroldis Chapman is used as such this weekend in Texas. It also leaves the door open for another reliever to eventually emerge with the role if the veteran reliever struggles with his command:
If there is roster space, those looking for future saves can stash Justin Slaten or Garrett Whitlock. It’s a long season.
Updated Hierarchy: Aroldis Chapman | Justin Slaten | Liam Hendriks
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Here are the remaining results of interest from Tuesday’s slate.
Closer CliffsNotes
Colorado Rockies
- Called upon with a runner on second and two outs, Victor Vodnik allowed an RBI single, with the runner moving to second, then scoring on a two-out RBI single before being tagged at second base in a run down. He gave up two hits and an earned run in one-third of the eighth, resulting in his first blown save. He threw 11 pitches (81.8 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He finishes spring with a 1.36 WHIP and eight strikeouts versus one walk (22.6 K-BB%).
- Seth Halvorsen gets tagged with the loss, giving up a hit and an earned run in two-thirds of the eighth. He recorded one strikeout on nine pitches (88.9 Strike%) with three whiffs (33.3 SwStr%). He posted a 1.50 WHIP with 10 strikeouts against five walks (12.2 K-BB%) over 9.1 innings.
Projected Hierarchy remains: Victor Vodnik | Tyler Kinley | Seth Halvorsen
Los Angeles Angels
- Appearing on consecutive days, Kenley Jansen was sharp, firing a clean top of the eighth while recording two strikeouts. He threw 13 pitches (76.9 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (15.4 SwStr%). He produced a 1.00 WHIP with four strikeouts in six innings.
Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Ben Joyce | Brock Burke
San Francisco Giants
- Preparing for the regular season, Ryan Walker tossed a scoreless ninth, giving up a hit and striking out one for his first spring save, in his last appearance. He threw 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) and produced two whiffs (12.5 SwStr%). He posted a 1.38 WHIP with 15 strikeouts versus two walks (36.2 K-BB%) over 8.2 innings.
- Camilo Doval gave up three hits and an earned run in the eighth. Randy Rodríguez collected his first win, working a scoreless seventh, walking and striking out one.
Projected Hierarchy remains: Ryan Walker | Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers
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