Not much has changed since last week’s first Trade Deadline Primer, but writers’ clickbait will continue, especially once we enter July. How teams handle their rosters will evolve over the next two weeks ahead of the All-Star game and take shape with about a week left before the July 30 deadline.
Setting a baseline, here are the playoff odds entering gameplay on June 28 from Baseball-Reference:
American League
In the American League, five teams have playoff odds of five percent or lower, and the defending World Champions have odds of less than ten percent.
National League
In the National League, only two teams have a less than one percent chance of the playoffs, and six teams below 12 percent, but there’s a logjam in the Wild Card standings still:
With this in mind, Jon Heyman once again listed seven relievers he believes could be moved. There is no research or semblance of reasoning by him, but you can see for yourself at this link. Otherwise, here are the seven relievers he listed:
- Tanner Scott (MIA)
- Mason Miller (OAK)
- Garrett Crochet (CWS)
- Carlos Estévez (LAA)
- Kenley Jansen (BOS)
- Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
- Michael Kopech (CHW)
Conflicting reports about Boston’s intentions with Kenley Jansen have surfaced recently. With their recent hot streak, the team may prefer to remain with its current roster while awaiting the returns of Tristan Casas and Liam Hendriks. Plus, in this column by Alex Speier of The Boston Globe, the veteran closer shared his thoughts about a trade potentially putting him into a match-up-based bullpen:
This does not sound like a reliever seeking change, even as a pending free agent.
Eno Sarris and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic put forth tiered rankings of players who may be moved. It’s a longer list of relievers with some interesting names included:
Noting Texas has struggled this year, Kirby Yates will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, along with José Leclerc. Runner-up Arizona resides only two-and-a-half games out of the last Wild Card spot, but if the drift in the standings, Paul Sewald, also a free agent at the end of the season, could be placed on the trade block.
Kyle Finnegan is the biggest one on the list with variance versus previously posted content. He’s the only reliever with every one of his team’s saves this season, a 100 percent save share. Washington faces the difficult task of weighing a retooling on the fly and vying for a postseason berth. Plus, they are promoting top prospect James Wood for his MLB debut on Monday.
Tampa Bay will also face a crossroads this year. It can move starting pitchers with Shane Baz and Jeffrey Springs on rehab assignments. If the team remains on its current trajectory, it may also trade Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam.
Using the last 30 days’ results (through June 27), here are some of the relievers discussed in these two columns in chart form with their SGPs (standings gain points):
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/usAHJ/1/
Last, using Tankathon, here are the strength of schedules for the remainder of the season by league.
American League
National League
Fantasy managers should note six of the teams facing tough deadline decisions reside in the top ten toughest remaining schedules. This may sway front offices as July 30 approaches.
Until then, we await game results and more injury updates while monitoring the trends in the standings.
Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.