July 21, 2022
Special Update (Part 1 of 2 — check back later for the National League)
—–
Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
TL;DR — AL relievers
BUY+: None.
BUY: Zach Jackson, Dany Jimenez, Joe Barlow, Alex Lange, Josh Staumont.
SELL: Brett Martin, Gregory Soto, Scott Barlow, Jhoan Duran.
SELL+: Lou Trivino.
—–
AL East
Baltimore Orioles — Shockingly, the Orioles enter the All-Star break at .500 and just 3.5 games out of a playoff spot. If the Orioles remain in contention, it’s unlikely they trade closer Jorge Lopez, who has two years of club control left after 2022. If they do have a fall from grace, the Orioles may look to move Lopez while his value is sky-high. Stay tuned. BUY/SELL: None.
Boston Red Sox — The Red Sox will probably still be in the hunt for a Wild Card spot when the trade deadline arrives, but their appetite to be buyers at the deadline may have waned after Chris Sale’s injury. It’s more likely the Sox stand pat or sell right now; if they do sell, it will likely involve pending free agents, none of whom are hierarchy guys. BUY/SELL: None.
New York Yankees — Clay Holmes has been one of the best relievers in baseball all season and won’t lose the ninth inning even if the Yankees get some bullpen help at the deadline. BUY/SELL: None.
Tampa Bay Rays — The Rays will likely be making moves at the deadline, but they aren’t the type to trade for a reliever that would take over the ninth inning. It should be business as usual for this carousel of *closers. BUY/SELL: None.
Toronto Blue Jays — The Jays fired their manager and have since won four of five to enter the All-Star break in the final Wild Card spot. They could use some help in the bullpen, but any acquisition is unlikely to replace Jordan Romano as closer. BUY/SELL: None.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox — Although the White Sox have disappointed a little bit in the first half, All-Star closer Liam Hendriks has not. Hendriks, who has not been scored on in his past 15 appearances, is fully locked into the closer’s role. BUY/SELL: None.
Cleveland Guardians — Emmanuel Clase just closed out the All-Star game and struck out the side on just ten pitches. Clase is young and the Guardians hope this is a sign of things to come. Cleveland could add some bullpen help if they stay in playoff contention, but no one they acquire would challenge Clase. BUY/SELL: None.
Detroit Tigers — The Tigers are an interesting team to watch at the deadline from a bullpen perspective. They’ll likely look to move setup man Michael Fulmer, a free agent at the end of the season. Andrew Chafin and Joe Jimenez could also be on the move, but the big question is what they do with Gregory Soto. If Detroit tries to cash in on Soto at the deadline, Alex Lange could reap the benefits. BUY: Alex Lange; SELL: Gregory Soto.
Kansas City Royals — Scott Barlow has 16 saves this season and could help a contender looking for bullpen help at the deadline. The Royals control Barlow through 2024, so they could decide to keep him — but he’s already 28 years old and his value may never be higher. If the Royals trade Barlow, Josh Staumont is likely to close. BUY: Josh Staumont; SELL: Scott Barlow.
Minnesota Twins — The Twins are currently leading the AL Central, but their bullpen is unsettled. Rookie Jhoan Duran had a solid first half, but can he be trusted to close games in a late-season playoff run? If Minnesota adds an established closer at the deadline, Duran’s value to fantasy owners will surely drop. BUY: None; SELL: Jhoan Duran.
AL West
Houston Astros — Solidly in the playoffs with room to spare, Houston might look to upgrade the back end of their bullpen, but there’s no reason to suspect Ryan Pressly’s role will be affected. BUY/SELL: None.
Los Angeles Angels — The Angels locked up closer Raisel Iglesias on a four-year deal this past offseason, and he won’t be going anywhere this summer, even with LA slipping farther away from the playoffs. BUY/SELL: None.
Oakland A’s — Although Lou Trivino has had some struggles this year (6.59 ERA, 1.94 WHIP), a lot of the problem has been bad luck (.331 BAA, .468 BABIP); his strikeout and walk rates are better than his career averages. He looks like a good, cheap target for a contender looking to bolster their setup options, and this could leave Zach Jackson (2.95 ERA, 12.5 K/9, 18 holds) or the recuperating Dany Jimenez (11 saves, but 4.38 ERA and 8.4 K/9) to inherit the closer role. BUY: Zach Jackson, Dany Jimenez; SELL+: Lou Trivino.
Seattle Mariners — After a 14-game winning streak, Seattle finds itself a surprising wild card as things stand today. The team could move for reinforcements at the deadline, but Paul Sewald is pitching well and should keep his job. BUY/SELL: None.
Texas Rangers — The Rangers are unlikely to contend for the playoffs this year and they could be showcasing Brett Martin right now in an attempt to flip the lefty under team control through 2026. In that case, maybe Joe Barlow’s demotion really will have been only “temporary.” BUY: Joe Barlow; SELL: Brett Martin.