Weekly Hot Seat Update: June 12, 2015

A few quick lists this week, comprising all 30 of the top guys in our depth chart:

Top three closers at the moment — Zach Britton; David Robertson; Drew Storen
These guys have high strikeout rates, low walk rates, and there’s nothing in their advanced stats to suggest trouble ahead. Britton‘s GB% is second among all qualified relievers (69.8%).

Knocking on that door — Dellin Betances; Kenley Jansen
With Andrew Miller out for what could be an extended period of time, Betances will get the chance to prove that his impressive skills can play in the ninth inning. Jansen has looked good in his nine appearances, but the .071 BABIP is, er, unsustainable.

Pitching worse than their numbers — John Axford; Tyler Clippard; Greg Holland; Brad Ziegler
These four guys have combined for 37 saves with pretty decent ERAs, but each of them have worrying low K rates (mitigated some for Ziegler and Axford due to their high groundout rates) and are letting too many guys get on base. As we told you a few weeks ago, Holland‘s surface success is not supported by his underlying metrics, and we don’t recommend waiting until the two reach an equilibrium.

Probably better than you think — Luke Gregerson; Jason Grilli; Cody Allen; Hector Rondon; Brett Cecil; Brad Boxberger
The first three guys are raking in saves pretty well, and though their ERAs are higher than you’d like, the fundamentals look pretty solid. Rondon isn’t pitching lights-out or anything, but he doesn’t deserve to be ousted for a committee either. He and Clippard are nearly twins (same IP, same K rate), but Rondon has a much lower walk rate and has given up hits 5% more often on batted balls. And it’s not the fault of Cecil or Boxberger that they’re not getting any save opportunities lately (or, in Cecil‘s case, at all, ever); they’re doing most of what they’re being asked to do.

Guys with 13+ saves who are likely to regress — Joakim Soria; Mark Melancon; Santiago Casilla; Trevor Rosenthal; Francisco Rodriguez; Koji Uehara
If you have a strong bullpen, you might consider moving any of these guys in a trade. Play up those gaudy save numbers and don’t mention that Rosenthal and Soria have astronomically high strand rates that are keeping their ERAs artificially low, that K-Rod is boasting a sub-.220 BABIP for the second straight year, or that Koji Uehara is two months older than Allen Iverson. Sell high, friends.

Big names pitching well (enough) — Glen Perkins; Jonathan Papelbon; Aroldis Chapman; Craig Kimbrel; Huston Street
Some exposure to age and regression here — and there’s no telling where Papelbon might end up — but overall, these guys are getting it done.

Why you don’t have to pay for saves — Carson Smith; Shawn Tolleson; A.J. Ramos; Jeurys Familia
None of these guys were their team’s top choice coming into spring training, but through combinations of injuries and ineffectiveness, they’re closers now — and paying dividends for the owners fortunate enough to grab them first. We’ll be sure to keep you ahead of the curve on the next guys to make this list — maybe Evan Scribner, Wade Davis, or Tony Watson.

Bobby Parnell returns; Jonathan Papelbon trade rumors heat up

June 12, 2015

Tampa Bay Rays — It was a bad seventh inning for the Rays bullpen Thursday night. Up 2-1, manager Kevin Cash went with Kevin Jepsen, who allowed the tying run before getting yanked. Brad Boxberger came into the game with men on first and third with one out and the 1-2-3 hitters due up for the Angels — arguably the highest leverage spot in the game, which is how Kevin Cash has said he’d handle Boxberger’s use in the past. Boxberger allowed an RBI groundout and an RBI double, allowing two inherited runs to score before he was pulled. Jepsen and Boxberger each recorded only one out, and the Rays went on to lose 6-2. With Boxberger’s recent ineffectiveness (6.1 IP, 5 ER since May 26) and his use in non-save situations, we’re going to slap the closer-by-committee tag back on Tampa for the time being.

Updated hierarchy: *Boxberger | McGee | Jepsen.

Chicago Cubs — Speaking of committees, manager Joe Maddon has employed one lately. Thursday night it was Hector Rondon’s turn again, as the righty picked up his 11th save. Pedro Strop pitched the eighth inning and Jason Motte was seen warming up and was ready to go if Rondon faltered in any way. Also of note, Maddon said newly signed reliever Rafael Soriano won’t get called up until after the All-Star break.

Hierarchy remains: *Rondon | Strop | Motte.

New York Mets — 14 months removed from Tommy John surgery, Bobby Parnell is finally back in the big leagues, albeit with diminished velocity. Parnell had been rehabbing for 30 days in the minors and, as a player with five years of major league experience, he had the right to veto an extended stay there. The Mets apparently didn’t ask him to stay on the farm, where he was torched for an 11.57 ERA in 14 innings between A and AA — an outcome he claims was the result of focusing on perfecting individual pitches during his outings. He’ll have to prove he can recapture his old form before he gets many high-leverage looks for the big club.

Hierarchy remains: Familia | C.Torres | Robles.

New York Yankees — Everything’s Not Lost in the Yankees bullpen after all with the Thursday return of righty Chris Martin. Martin had been sent to Triple-A late last month after his DL return so he could get “back on a roll,” according to manager Joe Girardi. Martin has one save and a 3.55 ERA in 12.2 innings for the Yankees this season.

Updated hierarchy: Betances | Shreve | Martin.

Philadelphia Phillies — You may notice a few dozen pickups of setup man Ken Giles on your preferred fantasy platform. That’s because the Phillies are ramping up trade discussions involving closer Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon is due to make $8 million more this season, with a $13 million option for 2016 that will vest if he finishes 26 more games this year. The Phillies are reportedly calling contenders to let them know the team will eat some of Papelbon’s salary for this season and next in order to get a better return. The Blue Jays and Cubs reportedly have talked to the Phillies this month, with the Mariners, Rays, and Marlins possibly interested as well.

Hierarchy remains: Papelbon | Giles | Garcia.

Washington Nationals — Aaron Barrett had a tough outing and was saddled with the loss. Pitching in a tie game in the seventh inning, Barrett gave up a home run and threw a wild pitch before being pulled from the game during an at-bat with an apparent injury. After the game, manager Matt Williams said Barrett was “uncomfortable” on the mound and will need to be evaluated on Friday. We assume Barrett will be unavailable for at least the next game or two, so Blake Treinen moves into his role in the Nationals hierarchy. With Washington’s bullpen in disarray, the team also recently traded for Yankee washout David Carpenter.

Updated hierarchy: Storen | Janssen | Treinen.

Colorado Rockies — LaTroy Hawkins was activated from the disabled list and immediately pitched against the Marlins Thursday, allowing two hits and picking up a strikeout in a scoreless inning with the Rockies down six. Let’s see Hawkins get some work when the Rockies have the lead before we bring him back into the hierarchy.

Hierarchy remains: Axford | Oberg | Brown.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays — Brad Boxberger has pitched in two straight games and has had a rough time of it the last few weeks. Look for McGee to get the next save opportunity if Boxberger (a) needs rest or (b) enters in a high-leverage spot earlier in the game.
2. Pedro Strop/Jason Motte, Chicago Cubs — Hector Rondon got the save chance Thursday night, but Motte was warming in the 9th just in case. The closer situation is still kind of murky, so keep an eye on Motte and Strop.
3. Jonathan Broxton, Milwaukee Brewers — Francisco Rodriguez has pitched in four of the last six games for the Brewers, who are suddenly winning games. If K-Rod needs a break Friday, look for Jonathan Broxton to get the opportunity.

Andrew Miller hits DL; Jake McGee gets first save

June 11, 2015

New York Yankees — As indicated in an alert on Wednesday, Andrew Miller has been placed on the disabled list with a strained forearm. Dellin Betances will close in his place, while Chasen Shreve and Jacob Lindgren move up to the 8th and 7th inning roles.

Updated hierarchy: Betances | Shreve | Lindgren.

Tampa Bay Rays — Jake McGee finally earned that elusive first save of 2015, allowing one hit and striking out two in an uneventful 9th inning. Brad Boxberger pitched the 8th, facing the 2-3-4 hitters in the Angels’ lineup. It was Boxberger’s first appearance in a week after a battle with triceps soreness, and he arguably pitched in a higher-leverage spot given whom he faced. Since a blown save on May 26, McGee has allowed just one hit and lowered his ERA from 8.10 to 3.00. He slides ahead of Kevin Jepsen for now, but those two may be used interchangeably.

Updated hierarchy: Boxberger | McGee | Jepsen.

Atlanta Braves –As predicted in the Vulture Save Watch, Jim Johnson picked up the save for the Braves as Jason Grilli got a night off following two straight appearances totaling 50 pitches.

Hierarchy remains: Grilli | Johnson | Cunniff.

Baltimore Orioles — Speaking of correct VSW predictions, Darren O’Day shut down the Red Sox over two innings to earn his second save of the season. Zach Britton was needed for a five-out save the previous night.

Hierarchy remains: Britton | O’Day | Hunter.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Pedro Strop/Jason Motte, Chicago Cubs — The Cubs are still in a committee, so Hector Rondon may not get the 9th.

Rafael Soriano signs with Cubs; another save for Carson Smith

June 10, 2015

Miami Marlins — Mike Dunn pitched the 8th inning ahead of AJ Ramos in a one-run game. Ramos couldn’t hold on to the lead, giving up a two-run walkoff bomb. Ramos has pitched well enough since taking over the closer’s role, but Dunn seems to have worked his way back into the late-inning mix, as this is his second straight 8th inning appearance.

Updated hierarchy: Ramos | Dyson | Dunn.

Seattle Mariners — Carson Smith continues to look like the lead arm in the Seattle committee; he was handed the 9th inning in a two-run game on Tuesday, his second straight save opportunity. This time it didn’t go quite as smoothly for him, with a leadoff home run and a single preceding the final out. The young righthander’s phenomenal season continues, and a couple more clean save opportunities could see him kick the asterisk.

Hierarchy remains: *Smith | Lowe | Furbush.

Boston Red Sox — Manager John Farrell reportedly had a long closed-door meeting with closer Koji Uehara before Tuesday’s game. Afterward, Farrell insisted that it was only a checkup after Uehara pitched in three straight games, but the timing is curious since the pitcher is a couple days removed from the heavy workload. Uehara has been as effective as ever this year, and even after his disaster outing on June 4, Koji got the ball for two straight save opportunities. This was probably nothing, but it may be worth keeping an eye on Junichi Tazawa, who has quietly put up six straight scoreless appearances, and has a 1.40 ERA on the season.

Hierarchy remains: Uehara | Tazawa | Barnes.

Chicago Cubs — The Cubs sought some bullpen help by signing former major league closer Rafael Soriano to a minor-league deal on Tuesday. Normally a minor-league signing isn’t newsworthy, but Soriano earned 32 saves in 2014 and will walk into one of the most unsettled bullpens in the league. Once he makes it to the show, expect him to be handed high-leverage situations, especially given his pro-rated $4 million salary (with $4 million more in incentives).

Hierarchy remains: *Rondon | Strop | Motte.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Darren O’Day, Baltimore Orioles — Zach Britton threw 28 pitches in a five-out save yesterday, and may need a night off.
2. Jonathan Broxton, Milwaukee Brewers — Francisco Rodriguez has pitched in two straight and three of the last four.
3. Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals — Both Greg Holland and Wade Davis have pitched in three straight games.
4. Jim Johnson, Atlanta Braves — Jason Grilli has pitched in two straight, throwing 50 pitches over that span.
5. Pedro Strop/Jason Motte, Chicago Cubs — The Cubs are running a committee until Rondon figures himself out.