Kelvin Herrera yanked again; day-to-day with forearm tightness

September 2, 2017

Kansas City Royals — For the second time in 10 days, Kelvin Herrera was pulled from a game in a save situation with forearm tightness. Both times it’s been Scott Alexander converting the unorthodox save, giving him two more than Herrera in that time period. Alexander has been solid this year and has now gone 11 straight appearances without a run, but he hasn’t seen consistent high-leverage use, and Mike Minor and Brandon Maurer had already pitched last night. We’ll keep an eye on Herrera’s “day-to-day” status — the last time he was pulled, he was held out for five days. We expect Brandon Maurer to be first in line for any save chances in the meantime.

Hierarchy remains: Herrera | Maurer | Minor.

Washington Nationals — Ryan Madson has been activated from the DL and figures to return to a late-inning role immediately. Dusty Baker is excited, and with good reason: Madson hasn’t given up a run in a Nationals uniform. Madson should fight for the eighth-inning role, but he’ll have to prove he’s ready first. Dusty Baker is also known for letting his players chase milestones, so he may try to get Brandon Kintzler two more saves to reach 30 on the year.

Updated hierarchy: Doolittle | Kintzler | Madson.

Cleveland Indians —  In the first game of a doubleheader, Cody Allen came on to bail out Bryan Shaw in the eighth inning. He escaped with the lead, but when he loaded the bases in the ninth with two outs, Terry Francona went to Joe Smith to pitch to Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera lined out to earn Smith his first save of the season. Smith is an important part of the Cleveland bullpen, and will continue to see high-leverage work, but there is no reason to think this was anything but a matchup play after Allen had thrown 28 pitches.

Hierarchy remains: Allen | Smith | Shaw.

Seattle Mariners — David Phelps is headed right back to the disabled list with the same right elbow impingement. Marc Rzepczynski returns to second in line.

Updated hierarchy: Diaz | Vincent | Rzepczynski.

Boston Red Sox — Matt Barnes was activated from the DL after spending the minimum amount of time there. He joins a crowded Boston bullpen, with Craig Kimbrel and Addison Reed locks in the last two innings. Expect Barnes to challenge for the seventh immediately, as Joe Kelly has struggled a bit after returning from the DL himself.

Hierarchy remains: Kimbrel | Reed | Kelly.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. Anthony Swarzak — It’s been three in a row for Corey Knebel.
2. Brandon Maurer — We told you about Herrera’s issues above.
3. Mychal Givens/Darren O’Day — Both Zach Britton and Brad Brach went two innings yesterday and have pitched in two out of three.
4. Tony Barnette — Alex Claudio got five outs Friday in his second straight day of work.
5. Archie Bradley/David Hernandez — Fernando Rodney has pitched in three of four (57 pitches). So has Bradley, but he threw only seven last night.

Sunday:
1. Joe Smith — Cody Allen has gone in two of three (48 pitches).
2. Alex Wilson — Shane Greene has too (32 pitches).
3. Tommy Hunter — And Alex Colome.
4. Kyle Barraclough/Drew Steckenrider — Both Brad Ziegler and Barraclough have gone in two in a row.
5. Luis Garcia — And so has Hector Neris.

Greg Holland on the hot seat in Colorado

August 24, 2017

Colorado Rockies —  Greg Holland had a rough Wednesday against his former club, giving up three runs as he recorded his third blown save this month in a walk-off loss to the Royals. After the game, Bud Black said that his initial instinct is to keep Holland as his closer, though he will talk about it. Holland’s last two outings have been disastrous, as he also allowed three earned runs on August 19. Nearly untouchable over the first three months of the season, Holland has now given up nine earned runs in August and is firmly on the hot seat in Colorado.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Neshek | McGee.

Texas Rangers — After Alex Claudio kept the game tied through the eighth and ninth innings, Jose Leclerc had a chance to convert a save in the 10th inning. Leclerc faltered, however, issuing two walks before being removed in favor of Tony Barnette, who came in locked down his first career save. Walks have been an issue for Leclerc, as he has now handed out nine over his last four games. Alex Claudio is clearly the best pitcher in the Rangers’ bullpen right now, with Barnette and Ricardo Rodriguez beginning the close the gap on Leclerc.

Updated hierarchy: *Claudio | Leclerc | Barnette.
* = closer-by-committee

Kansas City Royals — The Royals got some good news Wednesday, as Kelvin Herrera is not expected to miss any time due to Tuesday’s forearm tightness. While Herrera remains as closer, it is worth noting that Ned Yost said if Herrera does need some rest, whoever gets the ball instead will “depend on the situation.”

Hierarchy remains: Herrera | Maurer | Minor.

Seattle Mariners — David Phelps returned from the DL on Wednesday and immediately saw a high-leverage chance, entering a one-out, bases-loaded jam with the Mariners ahead, 4-3. Phelps allowed two of those inherited runners to score thanks to a single and a fielder’s choice, but the Mariners have to be happy to have one of their key arms back in the bullpen.

Updated hierarchy: Diaz | Vincent | Phelps.

Atlanta Braves – Jim Johnson faced four batters during Wednesday’s eighth inning with his team ahead by a run. A double, walk, wild pitch and two singles later, Johnson was well on his way to another four earned runs on his resume. He entered Wednesday having allowed seven runs over his last three appearances, but Brian Snitker opted to gamble on Johnson after yesterday’s bullpen session. Probably should have tried this instead.

Updated hierarchy: Vizcaino | Ramirez | Johnson.

St. Louis Cardinals — Trevor Rosenthal will have Tommy John surgery next week, which mean he will not only miss the rest of this season but much of next season as well. So far, nobody has emerged as a clear candidate to take over as closer in St. Louis. Seung Hwan Oh did himself no favors on Wednesday, allowing a single and a triple to the only two batters he faced in a low-leverage eighth inning during the Cardinals’ win.

Hierarchy remains: *Oh | Lyons | Brebbia.
* = closer-by-committee

Baltimore Orioles — Zach Britton’s impressive streak of 60 consecutive save chances converted came to an end on Wednesday. His streak of playoff games that he should have pitched remains at one.

Hierarchy remains: Britton | Brach | Givens.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. Brandon Maurer — Kelvin Herrera should be available, but Maurer may get the call if Ned Yost wants Herrera to get another day off.
2. Jose Leclerc — Alex Claudio has gone in two of the last three games, throwing 62 pitches over that time. If the Rangers have a lead, we’ll see how far, if at all, Leclerc has fallen in Jeff Banister’s eyes.

Friday:
1. Jerry Blevins— It will be two straight and three of four if AJ Ramos pitches on Thursday.

Kelvin Herrera pulled with forearm tightness; Brandon Maurer could close

August 23, 2017

Kansas City Royals — Kelvin Herrera got two quick outs with a one-run lead in the ninth but, after a bloop triple, he walked the bases loaded, then left with an injury on a 2-0 count. Lefty Scott Alexander got the unenviable task of converting the super-high-leverage save, and he rose to the occasion with a groundout to short. If Herrera’s injury — which Ned Yost described as “forearm tightness” — causes him to miss time, Brandon Maurer has the experience to take over, but his 20 saves come with a gross 6+ season ERA and a whopping 2.34 WHIP since the trade. Two factors potentially working in Maurer’s favor: his three major competitors — Mike Minor, Ryan Buchter, and Alexander — are all lefthanded, and Yost isn’t exactly known for progressive bullpen management. We will monitor the news today and alert you if Herrera hits the DL but, for now, we think it’ll be Maurer.

Hierarchy remains: Herrera | Maurer | Minor.

Cleveland Indians — Andrew Miller’s knee injury will require some time on the disabled list and some rehab tips from the Cavs. No word on a return date, but Terry Francona expects Miller to “get after” rehab.

Updated hierarchy: Allen | Smith | Shaw.

Seattle Mariners — Tony Zych has a forearm strain and will be sidelined for at least 10 days. Lefty Marc “Scrabble” Rzepczynski will hold down the seventh until David Phelps can return — possibly as early as Wednesday.

Updated hierarchy: Diaz | Vincent | Rzepczynski.

Pittsburgh Pirates — George Kontos (right groin strain) and Joaquin Benoit (left knee inflammation) each hit the DL on Tuesday. Although A.J. Schugel was unavailable on Tuesday due to a heavy recent workload, we expect him to pick up the bulk of the seventh-inning load for the Pirates, with Daniel Hudson another option.

Updated hierarchy: Rivero | Nicasio | Schugel.

Los Angeles Dodgers — One night after being used for only one out in the eighth, Tony Watson was summoned in the fifth inning on Tuesday. He earned the win, but seems to have lost his role as Kenley Jansen’s handcuff.

Updated hierarchy: Jansen | Baez | Fields.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. Brandon Maurer — Kelvin Herrera left last night with an apparent injury, and is likely to at least get Wednesday off.
2. Tommy Hunter — Alex Colome has gone in three of four. If Hunter (two of three) can’t go, we might learn which of Steve Cishek, Dan Jennings, Sergio Romo, and Brad Boxberger is really second in line for Tampa.
3. Santiago Casilla — Blake Treinen has pitched multiple innings in two of the last three games.
4. Pedro Baez — Kenley Jansen has gone in two straight and four of five.

Thursday:
1. Archie Bradley — Fernando Rodney has pitched in two straight games.

Kelvin Herrera blows save, leaves game with illness

July 20, 2017

Kansas City Royals — Before Wednesday’s game, Ned Yost mentioned that Kelvin Herrera had been ill, with a 102-degree fever and a sore throat. Yost called on Herrera anyway, only to see the closer give up the go-ahead home run, then leave the game with a trainer. After the game, Yost announced that Herrera was still ailing, not injured. Herrera himself said that he “ran out of energy.” The Royals won the game off Justin Wilson in the ninth, marking two blown saves for Nationals trade targets in the same inning. Joakim Soria remains the handcuff here.

Hierarchy remains: Herrera | Soria | Minor.

Atlanta Braves — Arodys Vizcaino gave up three hits in a rocky return from the disabled list, but we expect him to slide right back into his role as Jim Johnson’s understudy and presumptive heir.

Updated hierarchy: Johnson | Vizcaino | Ramirez.

Baltimore Orioles — As trade rumors continue to swirl around Zach Britton, Buck Showalter confirmed that Britton will get the next save opportunity. It will wait for another day, however, as the Orioles’ seven-run seventh put the game well out of reach.

Hierarchy remains: Britton | Brach | O’Day.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. Tony Zych/Steve Cishek — It’s been five saves in six days for Edwin Diaz, and Nick Vincent has pitched on each of those days as well. A save opportunity on Thursday could settle the question of who’s really second in line in Seattle.
2. Joakim Soria — Kelvin Herrera probably gets tomorrow off.
3. Hunter Strickland — Sam Dyson has gone in two straight, including a two-inning outing on Tuesday.
4. Jacob Barnes — Corey Knebel needed 31 pitches in a blown save on Wednesday and might get the day game off.

Friday:
1. Michael Lorenzen/Tony Cingrani — Raisel Iglesias got five outs on Wednesday, his second outing in three days.
2. Ryan Tepera — An appearance for Roberto Osuna would be four out of five.
3. Juan Nicasio/Tony Watson — Same for Felipe Rivero, except three out of four.

Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: American League

July 12, 2017

Special Update (Part 1 of 2 — check back tomorrow for the National League)

—–
Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR – AL relievers
BUY+: Tommy Kahnle.
BUY: Bruce Rondon, Mike Minor, Joakim Soria, Cam Bedrosian, David Hernandez, Blake Parker, Keone Kela, Matt Bush.
SELL: David Robertson, Justin Wilson, Bud Norris, Jose Leclerc, Alex Claudio.
SELL+: None.
—–

AL East

Baltimore Orioles — The Orioles are four games back in a wide-open Wild Card race and 3.5 games in front of the last-place team in the American League, which means the team is still unsure how it will proceed at the trade deadline. How does this affect the bullpen? Zach Britton is not likely to be moved, which means that Brad Brach and Darren O’Day aren’t going to assume the closer’s role in Baltimore. Either one of those setup men, however, is an intriguing trade target for a team in need of some bullpen depth. Brach was the team’s closer during Britton’s extended DL stint, but it’s unlikely he closes for a new team if he does get moved. BUY/SELL: None.

Boston Red Sox — The Red Sox own one of the best bullpens in the American League thanks in large part to All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel. Joe Kelly (1.49 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) has been the team’s next-best pitcher, but his hold on the 8th inning in Boston is not all that certain. The Sox are in the market for another reliever, with David Phelps and Pat Neshek being mentioned as potential targets. But Boston also has an in-house option in Carson Smith, who is set to throw from a mound this week. If he progresses well, the Sox may stand pat in the ‘pen. BUY/SELL: None.

New York Yankees — The Yankees will be buyers at the deadline, with Brad Hand highlighted as one of the potential targets. They have also scouted Pat Neshek. Despite recent struggles, Dellin Betances (15.00 ERA in July) should remain the handcuff to Aroldis Chapman, though the addition of a reliever like Hand will put some more pressure on Betances. BUY/SELL: None.

Tampa Bay Rays — Like the Yankees, the Rays could use another bullpen arm as they make a push for a playoff spot. Closer Alex Colome (3.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) has not been lights-out this year, but Kevin Cash doesn’t seem interested in making a switch to either Brad Boxberger or Tommy Hunter, and it’s unlikely the Rays will trade for someone with the intention of having him slot immediately into the closer’s role. BUY/SELL: None.

Toronto Blue Jays — The Blue Jays are in a similar predicament as the Orioles at the All-Star break. Toronto is five games back in the Wild Card race, but only 2.5 games from being last in the American League. It’s more than likely that the Jays will be sellers, but it’s less than likely that they trade 22-year-old closer Roberto Osuna. BUY/SELL: None.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox — The White Sox will almost certainly be sellers at the deadline and they have a number of bullpen arms who could be interesting to contending teams. Closer David Robertson tops the list and will likely be dealt before the trade deadline. He is an attractive option due to his postseason experience and ability to go more than one inning. The Nationals have been linked to Robertson since before the season, and that would likely be the best situation for fantasy owners since he would take over as the Nationals’ closer immediately. The Red Sox and Yankees have also been rumored to be interested in Robertson, but he would likely serve in a setup role to either Kimbrel or Chapman. We will list Robertson as a soft sell based on the possibility of ending up somewhere as a setup man. Tommy Kahnle should get a chance to close if Robertson is dealt, unless he also gets traded. BUY+: Tommy Kahnle; SELL: David Robertson.

Cleveland Indians — Cleveland’s bullpen got them to the World Series last year, and they won’t be making any moves that affect Andrew Miller or Cody Allen at the back end. BUY/SELL: None.

Detroit Tigers — The Tigers already cut their Opening Day closer in Francisco Rodriguez and it would not be surprising if their current closer is not around for much longer, although for much different reasons. Justin Wilson is having a great year, and teams are usually willing to overpay for bullpen help at the deadline. The Astros have been linked to Wilson for a while and the Dodgers also seem interested. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Wilson probably will not remain as a closer if he is dealt. Bruce Rondon could get another shot to close if Wilson is shipped somewhere else. BUY: Bruce Rondon; SELL: Justin Wilson.

Kansas City Royals — The Royals started the year out slow, but after a record of 17-9 in June, they put themselves back into contention. That might not matter in a couple weeks for Kelvin Herrera. Herrera hasn’t been as good this year (4.50 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.74 K/9) as the past couple years, but he is still a very good reliever and has a team-friendly contract. The Nationals are rumored to be interested in Herrera. Joakim Soria is a veteran arm who is having a good season (11.68 K/9, 11 holds) but his contract is a little richer, so he may stick around and close if Herrera is dealt. Mike Minor (1.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) is having a stellar season in the bullpen and could close if both Herrera and Soria are gone at the deadline. BUY: Joakim Soria, Mike Minor; SELL: Kelvin Herrera.

Minnesota Twins — Closer Brandon Kintzler was recently named an injury replacement for the All-Star team, and the Twins are surprisingly in second place in the AL Central. While Kintzler thought his manager was calling to tell him he was being traded, we don’t think he will be going anywhere. The Twins opted not to trade Kintzler last year when they were much further out of contention, and they will likely keep the All-Star around this season as well. BUY/SELL: None.

AL West

Houston Astros — The Astros, who sport a ridiculous 16.5-game lead in the AL West, are virtual locks for the postseason. They will definitely be buyers ahead of the deadline, but will they add another piece to their strong back-end? Some rumors have the Astros targeting starting pitching, but if that proves unsuccessful, they could aim to boost the bullpen depth. The Detroit Free Press says the Astros may be interested in Tigers closer Justin Wilson. For now, the Tigers have been asking for Houston’s top outfield prospect Derek Fisher, which could prove to be too steep a price. BUY/SELL: None.

Los Angeles Angels — The Angels are two games under .500 and way, way behind the Astros in the division, but they’re only three games behind New York and Tampa for a Wild Card berth. Mike Trout’s return could turn the Angels into buyers, or the team can falter and find themselves sellers. Either scenario puts the Angels in the conversation to trade for or deal away some relievers, and they have some intriguing options. Health has been the big issue with the back end of the ‘pen, as Huston Street is back on the DL again. Bud Norris (2.23 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) and Cam Bedrosian (1.69 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) have pitched well, but each pitcher has had their injury woes this season. Both players are healthy now and could probably be had at the deadline for a reasonable price, especially Norris. If either player is traded to a contender, it’s hard to imagine they’d be a closer with their new club. BUY: Cam Bedrosian, David Hernandez, Blake Parker; SELL: Bud Norris.

Oakland Athletics — The A’s are always active at the deadline, and as one of the worst teams in the American League, they will certainly be sellers. Oakland features a handful of relievers, like Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle and Santiago Casilla, who all could be intriguing to some contenders. One report suggests Doolittle (0.69 WHIP, 12.84 K/9) and Madson (2.17 ERA, 0.80 WHIP) are likely to be traded to contenders. Neither player would close for their new team, so keep that in mind when managing your own roster. Casilla, meanwhile, may stick around as he hasn’t been as impressive (3.82 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) as his bullpen mates, though a contender could look to acquire a veteran reliever like Casilla for cheap. If everyone is dealt, watch out for Liam Hendriks (5.40 ERA, though a 12.03 K/9), or… GULP… John Axford (6.30 ERA) to get a promotion. BUY/SELL: None.

Seattle Mariners — The M’s are four games under .500, but just four games back in the Wild Card race and figure to be buyers at the deadline, primarily because the team is sporting the highest payroll in team history (more than $150 million) and may want to deal for a player or two to put them over the hump. Edwin Diaz seems firmly entrenched in the closer’s role again, but Seattle could look outside the organization to boost the depth behind him. It’s not clear if the team has been connected to any specific reliever, so stay tuned to see if anyone will join Nick Vincent and old closer Steve Cishek behind Diaz in the bullpen. BUY/SELL: None.

Texas Rangers — The Rangers’ bullpen is in shambles and has blown a league-worst 17 save chances. Still, though, Texas is within striking distance of the Wild Card (three games back), and GM Jon Daniels said over the weekend he doesn’t envision his team selling. In fact, the team is likely to pursue relievers and/or controllable players via trade, according to a report. So, what should the Rangers do? Currently sporting a three-headed committee, Texas could be in the market for a marquee reliever, like Brad Hand. Meanwhile, if there’s no deal to be made, keep an eye on the currently injured Keone Kela, Matt Bush or the recently-returned Jeremy Jeffress staking their claim as the team’s primary stopper. BUY: Keone Kela, Matt Bush; SELL: Jose Leclerc, Alex Claudio.