Brad Boxberger tightens his hold in Tampa; Andrew Miller on the rise for the Yankees

April 11, 2015

Tampa Bay Rays — Grant Balfour entered in the fifth inning of Friday’s game with the Rays down seven, a solid indication that he’s not the first choice for high-leverage setup work in Tampa. Kevin Cash has also shown no indication that he’s using a closer committee, with Brad Boxberger getting enough endgame opportunities to shed his asterisk. Boxberger should have another three weeks in the role before Jake McGee returns.

Updated hierarchy: Boxberger | Jepsen | Balfour.

Kansas City Royals — After initially saying that Greg Holland would be available, Ned Yost changed his mind and said that “common sense” dictated that Holland not pitch on three straight days so early in the season. Pitching coach Dave Eiland was apparently behind the decision. In Holland’s absence, Wade Davis struck out the side to earn an early vulture save.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

Miami Marlins — It’s been a rough start to the season for Steve Cishek; the sidearmer gave up four runs in a Tuesday blowout, then blew Friday’s save in an outing that nonetheless brought his ERA back under 100. After the game, Cishek speculated that the team’s struggles may have been the result of “Zombie Night,” although the last time we checked, Kevin Gregg was pitching for Cincinnati.

Hierarchy remains: Cishek | Dunn | Ramos.

Minnesota Twins — Lefty Brian Duensing came on to face a lefty to close the eighth, with Minnesota up three runs. When the Twins scored three more in the top half of the ninth, he stayed on to finish the game, earning an unusual save.

Hierarchy remains: Perkins | Fien | Duensing.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Jumbo Diaz, Cincinnati Reds — Aroldis Chapman has pitched on three straight days, and four of the last five.
2. Kevin Jepsen, Tampa Bay Rays — Brad Boxberger has pitched on three of the last four days.
3. Andrew Miller, New York Yankees — This is a committee anyway — one that seems to be leaning in Miller’s direction — and Dellin Betances threw 25 pitches Friday and 32 on Wednesday.

2015 Tiered Closer Rankings

The Closer Monkey contributors pooled our collective personal closer rankings together and averaged the results; below is our composite list, sorted into tiers for your drafting convenience. Enjoy!

Tier 1 – The Elite
1. Aroldis Chapman
2. Craig Kimbrel
3. Greg Holland

Analysis: Not a lot needs to be said about this trio, but we’ll gush about them a bit anyway. They’re dominant, they have high strikeout rates, and they have proven track records of success.

The “maybe we should move him to the rotation” discussion that normally follows Chapman around all spring has finally dissipated this year, and he’s ready to follow up on what many considered his best season. Kimbrel continues to do his thing (look otherworldly), while Holland is coming off a year where he actually earned a few MVP votes.

Depending on your league size, an early round pick on one of these guys might mean you can ignore closers until the very last few rounds, where you can speculate on Tier 6 guys or middle relievers and still have a solid composite bullpen.

Tier 2 – The Very Good
4. David Robertson
5. Mark Melancon
6. Dellin Betances
7. Cody Allen

Analysis: The main player to watch here is Betances, who just had one of the best seasons any reliever has ever had. His ridiculous numbers would have been enough to push him into the Elite tier, except for the fact that he hasn’t won the job yet. We think he will, though, so we’ve included him in our second tier alongside three guys who we universally like.

Robertson has yet to fully recapture his magical 2011 season, but he’ll be great on the South Side, and could log 40 saves and 100 strikeouts. Thanks to his great control, Melancon has put up 2 straight years with a sub-2 ERA and figures to get lots of chances on a solid Pirates team. And Allen emerged last year as one of the top young stoppers in baseball whose best years are ahead of him.

Tier 3 – The Reliable
8. Trevor Rosenthal
9. Koji Uehara
10. Huston Street
11. Drew Storen
12. Zach Britton
13. Kenley Jansen

Analysis: This tier contains our two favorite veterans (Uehara and Street) mixed in with some promising youngsters.

Rosenthal had some bumpy moments and an unsightly WHIP last year, but did more than enough (45 saves, 11.1 K/9) to be included here. Storen’s deceptive delivery and good control led him to a 1.12 ERA last season. And Zach Britton’s nasty sinker suggests that he’ll still be able to get outs even if he’s not striking out the world.

Finally, this tier was a good spot for Kenley Jansen, an absolutely dominant stopper on a Dodgers team that’s going to win a lot of games. But Jansen, of course, is likely to miss the first month of the season, and might need some time to get up to speed.

Tier 4 – Safe-ish
14. Steve Cishek
15. Glen Perkins
16. Hector Rondon
17. Fernando Rodney
18. Sean Doolittle
19. Jonathan Papelbon

Analysis: Save for Cishek, who is really a Tier 3/Tier 4 tweener, there are minor concerns with every player listed here, from staying healthy (Perkins, Doolittle); to inexperience (Rondon); to past volatility (Rodney); to the fact that literally no one likes you including your own fan base (Papelbon).

But it seems likely that at least four of these six players will be perfectly fine and will hold their jobs for much or all of the season. If you’re going with a cheap saves approach — minimal draft investment combined with waiver wire dominance — you might want to think about snagging someone from this tier to keep you afloat until you can accumulate enough players through free agency.

Tier 5 – Hold on for the ride
20. Santiago Casilla
21. Joaquin Benoit
22. Jake McGee
23. Francisco Rodriguez
24. Addison Reed

Analysis: We’ve now reached the point where every remaining player has a moderate-to-major concern. It’s also where we’ll kick up our analysis a bit, since these players are always the most interesting.

Casilla is okay, but he’s far from dominant and will probably be on a short leash, since Sergio Romo has ample experience in the closer role. Benoit still hasn’t pitched in a spring training game, and can’t go three days in a row even when perfectly healthy. Jake McGee is great, but he’s coming off elbow surgery and is targeting a late April return. Even if he gets up to speed quickly, Brad Boxberger or Grant Balfour could be locked in to the role by then.

Francisco Rodriguez started hot last year, but tailed off significantly down the stretch and still hasn’t reported to camp. Finally, Addison Reed is just kinda bad, plus he’s dealing with shoulder soreness. Pick your poison here, as there are probably only two 30+ save guys in this fivesome.

Tier 6 – Yikes
25. Neftali Feliz
26. Joe Nathan
27. Luke Gregerson
28. Jenrry Mejia
29. Brett Cecil
30. LaTroy Hawkins

Analysis: This tier is where fantasy seasons are sometimes made, as there’s always a closer or two at the bottom of everyone’s list who goes on to defy expectations and have a great year. Obviously, it’s just hard to figure out who that player is.

Our bottom six starts with Neftali Feliz, whose velocity vanished last season. Though he’s put in a lot of work in the offseason, he also talked about not needing — or seemingly even wanting — to raise his strikeout rate. Yikes.

Joe Nathan is 40 years old, and had a 4.81 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 2014. Yikes.

Luke Gregerson was solid last year, but his numbers were a bit inflated by a lucky BABIP. Additionally, he plays for the terrible Astros and hasn’t even won the job yet. Yikes.

Jenrry Mejia also doesn’t have the gig for sure yet; in fact, Terry Collins has said that he needs to be “lights out” to prevent Bobby Parnell from taking over upon his return. Yikes.

Brett Cecil is the presumed frontrunner in Toronto, but megaprospect Aaron Sanchez is breathing down his neck and the Jays are clearly unsettled about their closer situation, having kicked the tires on Jonathan Papelbon. Yikes.

And finally, though we adore LaTroy Hawkins as a human being, nobody at Closer Monkey thinks he can pull off last year’s magic trick, where he saved 23 games and had a 3.31 ERA, despite the fact that he only struck out 5.3 hitters per 9 innings, and played half his games in Coors Field. Yeah. Yikes.

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2015 AL Central preview

March 6, 2015

Chicago White Sox – Chicago’s bullpen was a mess right from the start in 2014. To ensure that didn’t happen again, the Sox went out and signed former Yankees closer David Robertson. Jake Petricka and Zach Putnam, who split the closer’s job at the end of 2014, should slide into set-up roles in front of Robertson. The White Sox also added veteran lefty Zach Duke in the off-season, and he could see some time in the later innings.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Robertson | Petricka | Putnam.
Holds candidates: Petricka, Putnam.

Cleveland Indians – The Indians return the core of their bullpen for 2015. Cody Allen took over for John Axford in the middle of 2014 and never looked back. Manager Terry Francona has nothing but good things to say about Allen, who will start a season as closer for the first time in his young career. Brian Shaw and Scott Atchison did a nice job in the 7th and 8th innings last year and should return to those roles to start this upcoming season. Nick Hagadone could be a guy to watch, as he is a big, hard-throwing lefty with good strikeout potential.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Allen | Shaw | Atchison.
Holds candidates: Shaw, Marc Rzepczynski.

Detroit Tigers – Joe Nathan struggled all year in 2014 and hopes to bounce back in 2015. He’ll start the year as the closer, but Joakim Soria will be right behind him if he slips up. The Tigers brought Joba Chamberlain back, and also signed lefty Tom Gorzelanny. Bruce Rondon is one of the most interesting members of the Tigers bullpen, a young flamethrower coming off Tommy John surgery.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Nathan | Soria | Chamberlain.
Holds candidates: Soria, Gorzellany.

Kansas City Royals – The Royals bullpen was one of the main reasons for their successful 2015 season. Closer Greg Holland combined with Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera to form arguably the best relief tandem in baseball. All three guys will return in 2015 and, if that wasn’t good enough, they’ll also get Luke Hochevar back. Hochevar missed all of 2014, but was a dominant set-up man in 2013. Tim Collins was in line to be the Royals’ lefty specialist, but he was pulled from Wednesday’s spring training game and may need Tommy John surgery. Rookie phenom Brandon Finnegan may wind up in the bullpen as a result.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Holland | Davis | Herrera.
Holds candidates: Davis, Herrera.

Minnesota Twins  – Glen Perkins missed the end of the 2014 season, but he’s healthy now, and ready to close again for the Twins. Righty Casey Fien and lefty Brian Duensing will likely start the season in the back end of the bullpen. Tim Stauffer is competing for the fifth spot in the rotation, but if he doesn’t win the job, he could also be an option in the later innings.

Starting 2015 hierarchy: Perkins | Fien | Duensing.
Holds candidates: Fien, Duensing.

Sean Doolittle off DL, Uehara and Holland return

September 13, 2014

Oakland A’s – Closer Sean Doolittle returned from the DL yesterday.  Manager Bob Melvin said that everyone will return to their normal roles so it sounds like Doolittle will resume closing games immediately.

Updated hierarchy: Doolittle | O’Flaherty | Cook.

Boston Red Sox — Edward Mujica recorded another save on Friday night.  Meanwhile, Koji Uehara returned to throw a 1-2-3 8th inning.  It was Uehara’s first clean inning in almost a month.  Uehara will likely need a few more outings like that before he sees some save chances so Mujica should remain the closer for now.

Updated hierarchy: Mujica | Uehara | Tazawa.

Kansas City Royals — Greg Holland returned to the mound last night for the first time since September 3rd.  It was not a save situation but Holland did strike out the side.  Barring any setbacks with Holland’s triceps, he should immediately return to closing games.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

Tampa Bay Rays — Grant Balfour pitched a perfect 9th inning last night to record his first save since July 1st.  Jake McGee threw a perfect 8th inning and should continue to see the majority of save chances.  However, with Joel Peralta giving up 5 runs in his past two outings, Balfour could see more time in the later innings.

Updated hierarchy: McGee | Boxberger | Balfour.

San Diego Padres — Kevin Quackenbush picked up his third save of the season yesterday.  Benoit still wants to pitch again this season and he is scheduled to throw a bullpen on Sunday.

Hierarchy remains: Benoit | Quackenbush | Thayer.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Koji Uehara/Junichi Tazawa, Boston Red Sox – Edward Mujica has pitched three days in a row.
2. Jonathan Broxton, Milwaukee Brewers – K-Rod has appeared in four straight games.
3. Kevin Quackenbush, San Diego Padres – Quack got the save last night and Benoit is not expected to return until next week at the earliest.

Joakim Soria and Rafael Soriano make their returns

September 11, 2014

Oakland A’s — After a successful outing on Wednesday, Sean Doolittle is on track to return from the DL on Friday.

Hierarchy remains: O’Flaherty | Cook | Gregerson.

Houston Astros — With a lefty-heavy Mariners lineup in the 9th, it was Tony Sipp (mentioned in Wednesday’s VSW) who earned the save last night. It’s Josh Fields who will get most of the save chances as long as Chad Qualls is hurt, however.

Updated hierarchy: Qualls | Fields | Sipp.

Detroit Tigers — Joakim Soria returned from the DL on Wednesday, giving up one run in the ninth with the team behind. If Joe Nathan’s arm troubles worsen, Brad Ausmus could turn to the experienced Soria.

Updated hierarchy: Nathan | Chamberlain | Soria.

Washington Nationals — Rafael Soriano returned from a five-day hiatus to pitch in a low-leverage outing on Wednesday. Club brass hopes he’ll be willing to accept a set-up role as the postseason approaches.

Hierarchy remains: Storen | Clippard | Soriano.

Kansas City Royals — With Greg Holland remaining unavailable, Wade Davis picked up another save on Wednesday.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

Baltimore Orioles — The Orioles led 10-1 entering the bottom of the ninth and somehow still managed to squeeze out a save for Darren O’Day. Joe Saunders gets credit for the assist; he gave up two more baserunners than starter Wei-Yin Chin, while recording only 20 fewer outs.

Hierarchy remains: Britton | O’Day | Miller.

NFL — After an anonymous law enforcement source claimed that he sent a copy of the damning Ray Rice video to NFL officials in April, commissioner Roger Goodell announced that former FBI director Robert Mueller will head up an investigation into the league’s handling of evidence in the case. As cries for his dismissal grow louder, Goodell should be looking over his shoulder at Condoleeza Rice, who combines impressive professional credentials with a deep love of football — and could allow the Ravens to repurpose all their now-worthless “RICE” jerseys. Also in the mix is the logorrheic choice of the football gods, Gregg “TMQ” Easterbrook, who has written more words about the NFL than you have ever said. About anything.

Updated hierarchy: Goodell | Rice | Easterbrook.
Roger Goodell to Hot Seat.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Josh Fields, Houston Astros — As noted, Chad Qualls remains unavailable.
2. Joe Smith, Los Angeles Angels — As does Huston Street, until Friday.
3. Kevin Quackenbush, San Diego Padres — No news yet on Joaquin Benoit’s return.
4. Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals — Greg Holland might still be hobbled.
5. Will Smith, Milwaukee Brewers — K-Rod and Jonathan Broxton have been used a lot the last few days, and Wisconsin loves Pig Latin rap.