Weekly Hot Seat Update: May 22, 2015

With Addison Reed and Neftali Feliz now stuck in committees behind more effective pitchers, who’s left to discuss on the Hot Seat? You (and your leaguemates) already know Sean Doolittle is on a rehab assignment, giving up hard singles to Josh Hamilton, and planning to return as soon as this weekend. It’s no secret that Brett Cecil and Jason Grilli can’t be trusted, or that A.J. Ramos, Brad Ziegler, and Shawn Tolleson are the best guys to own in less-than-perfect situations. So today, let’s dig a little deeper — and find some possibly overvalued closers you might be able to flip for a profit. It’s the Selling High(-ish) edition of the Hot Seat.

1. Greg Holland
We know Holland has been phenomenal ever since he seized the closer’s role in Kansas City in July 2012. But this season, he has as many walks as strikeouts (6) and, given his history of stints on the disabled list, the stiff neck that kept him out on Tuesday looms ominously. Holland’s 0.90 ERA might look fantastic but, as Bill James once wrote, there are lizards hiding in the cellar: namely, a Jeremy Guthrie-esque K-rate, a .154 BABIP, and a 14% increase in batter contact that, together, scream reversion. Yes, he’s pitched only 10 innings this year, and he could always bounce back and make us look silly, but if you can score a superstar return from a guy with the sixth-highest FIP among closers, do it — and don’t ever look back.

2. John Axford
Okay. Not quite as exciting as the last guy. Not quite the same history of recent success. Not quite the same expected return. But if you’re in a league with an owner in thrall to the surface stats, and you’re okay rolling the dice with Closer Monkey for the next exciting new option, why not let Axford’s “proven closer” status and delightful 1.13 ERA speak for itself? After all, his K-BB% ratios for the last five years are 20-17-13-11-9 — and friends, you don’t want to be the one depending on the Ax Man to keep that neat little disappearing act profitable.

3. Mark Melancon
We mentioned Mark last week, and all he’s done since is further lower his K rate, make three more appearances (including 50 pitches last weekend), and have his pitching coach defend him as “a winner.” True enough; we just think the best way he can help you win is by turning himself into a quality infielder. Same goes, to a lesser extent, for Joakim Soria, whose numbers aren’t on the verge of collapse, but do look unsustainable. He even blew his first save today (sorry we didn’t post this sooner!).

Just remember — if you don’t want to pay for saves (and you shouldn’t), then you don’t want to overvalue them either. Keep track of your closers and hang onto the truly dominant — but don’t be afraid to flip a guy before luck (or mediocrity) catches up to him.

Zach McAllister making impact in Cleveland bullpen

May 21, 2015

Cleveland Indians – Zach McAllister pitched the eighth inning ahead of Cody Allen last night. Despite taking a loss on Monday, he has found himself pitching in higher-leverage spots as of late mainly due to his ability to make hitters miss with a 10.8 K/9 ratio. Manager Terry Francona recently praised McAllister and his usage suggests that he may get a crack at save opportunities if Cody Allen, who allowed another run on Wednesday, is unavailable.

Updated hierarchy: Allen | Shaw | McAllister.

Texas Rangers – Shawn Tolleson converted his first save opportunity as the head of the Texas committee. It wasn’t as smooth as he would have liked, as he gave up a double and an intentional walk, but he got the job done. It was a true committee leading up to the ninth, as utility pitcher Ross Ohlendorf was used in the eighth, combining with Alex Claudio and Tanner Scheppers to hold the Red Sox scoreless. Manager Jeff Banister was happy with his bullpen’s performance, and guys like Scheppers and Tolleson seem to be buying in to the committee. Still of interest is where Neftali Feliz, who had thrown 23 pitches on Tuesday, fits in all of this, and we may find out on Thursday if the Rangers have a late lead. For now, it appears that a cavalcade of pitchers will be used ahead of Tolleson on any given night.

Hierarchy remains: *Tolleson | Feliz | Scheppers.
* = closer-by-committee

Kansas City Royals — Greg Holland is feeling better after dealing with a stiff neck on Tuesday and is once again ready for regular duty in the ninth inning.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Bryan Shaw, Cleveland Indians – Cody Allen has appeared in two straight, tossing 38 pitches.

Luke Gregerson unavailable Wednesday; Holland held out with stiff neck

May 20, 2015

Houston Astros –Luke Gregerson entered the ninth with a four-run lead, but he allowed two earned runs on two hits and two walks before Pat Neshek recorded the final out for his first save of the season. After the game, manager A.J. Hinch said Gregerson will be unavailable on Wednesday because of his recent workload. Hinch also wasn’t sure if Gregerson’s recent struggles are related to off-field matters that put him on the bereavement list earlier in the month, but seemed to stand by his closer after the Astros got off to their best 40-game start in franchise history.

Hierarchy remains: Gregerson | Qualls | Neshek.

Kansas City Royals –Wade Davis picked up his seventh save of the season in the absence of Greg Holland, who woke up with a stiff neck and was unavailable on Tuesday. Doesn’t seem too serious, but Wade Davis may get another chance if Holland is still not 100%.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Enrique Burgos secured his second save in as many games, as predicted in the Vulture Save Watch. Prior to the game, manager Chip Hale said that Brad Ziegler was his top option to close, though he also wanted to stay away from him on Tuesday after Monday’s lengthy outing. As far as Burgos goes, Hale mentioned postgame that he’ll continue to “see what the matchups look like.”

Hierarchy remains: *Ziegler | Burgos | Reed.
* = closer-by-committee

Tampa Bay Rays — Jake McGee grabbed his first hold of 2015, setting up Brad Boxberger for his 11th save of the season. McGee now has four strikeouts in two innings since his return, and he is the sensible candidate to pitch directly ahead of Brad Boxberger. However, manager Kevin Cash has repeatedly reminded us that he’s playing matchups, meaning McGee and Boxberger can swap spots on a whim.

Hierarchy remains: *Boxberger | McGee | Jepsen.
* closer-by-committee

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Chad Qualls, Houston Astros – As noted above, Luke Gregerson will be unavailable tonight.
2. Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals – Davis may get another save chance tonight if Greg Holland’s stiff neck is still an issue.

Marlins in talks with Rafael Soriano; Jason Grilli returns

May 13, 2015

Miami Marlins – As we suspected yesterday, A.J. Ramos will get the bulk of the save opportunities in Mike Redmond’s newly-formed committee. Redmond will indeed mix and match, however, so Mike Dunn and Bryan Morris are also options to save games for the Marlins. In addition, the team is in talks with free agent Rafael Soriano, whose last save came on Sept. 21 against…you guessed it, the Marlins. Soriano’s agent, Scott Boras, has said that he is getting closer with “a few teams.”

Hierarchy remains: *Ramos | Dunn | Morris.
* = closer-by-committee

Atlanta Braves – Jason Grilli took the loss in his first outing in six days, though he said after the game that his back is fine and that he was just a little rusty. With Jim Johnson continuing to pitch well, the Braves may be more willing to give Grilli an extra day of rest here and there, especially if his back isn’t truly fine.

Hierarchy remains: Grilli | Johnson | Avilan.

Arizona Diamondbacks –Evan Marshall was optioned to AAA on Monday to make room for a much-needed long reliever. Marshall had pitched three straight scoreless innings despite some struggles this year and should be back with Arizona at some point. In the meantime, two guys that should see some late-inning chances are Oliver Perez and Enrique Burgos. The latter is 24 years old and was recently called up while Perez, 33, has just one hold in LOOGY duty this year. Perez may get the edge for now if both Addison Reed and Brad Ziegler are unavailable, but Burgos is a youngster to watch with 11 strikeouts in six innings of big-league work.

Updated hierarchy: Reed | Ziegler | Perez.

Kansas City Royals –Greg Holland proved he is indeed human on Tuesday as he blew his first save chance since July 24. The Royals retook the lead in the 10th, however, and Holland stayed on to earn the win.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Madson.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman earned a win after two straight losses, but he’s now pitched in three straight games.
2. Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals – Greg Holland threw 26 pitches over two innings on Tuesday and has racked up 56 pitches over the last three days.

Kelvin Herrera begins his suspension; Edward Mujica demoted

May 8, 2015

Kansas City Royals — Reliever Kelvin Herrera’s combined suspensions were reduced to six games, a penalty he began serving on Thursday. He’s eligible to return next Wednesday. In the meantime, Luke Hochevar returned from the disabled list after a rough rehab assignment and pitched a scoreless sixth inning against Cleveland. Comeback kid Ryan Madson pitched the seventh inning, though, so he gets the edge in our hierarchy for now, with Herrera out and Hochevar (who hasn’t pitched on two straight days all season) still working his way back. Oh, and did we mention that Greg Holland got his first save since returning from the DL? It truly was a busy night for the Royals ‘pen.

Updated hierarchy: Holland | Davis | Madson.

Boston Red Sox — The Red Sox were off Thursday, but made two significant moves in designating former setup man Edward Mujica for assignment and firing pitching coach Juan Nieves. Mujica’s departure likely means the call-up of prospect Matt Barnes, who may begin in the Boston bullpen. Barnes throws hard, which is more than you can say about most of the Red Sox pitching staff. He could enter the late-innings mix in the coming weeks.

Hierarchy remains: Uehara | Tazawa | Ogando.

St. Louis Cardinals — Jordan Walden will be out for 6 to 10 weeks with an injury to his pitching shoulder. Kevin Siegrist slides into the Cardinal hierarchy.

Updated hierarchy: Rosenthal | Maness | Siegrist.

Los Angeles Angels — Given a 2-0 lead in the ninth inning Thursday night, Angels closer Huston Street coughed it all up, surrendering three runs to take the loss against his namesake. Street allowed four singles and a walk, but the winning run came only when the speedy Jose Altuve beat out a double play that would have ended the inning.

Hierarchy remains: Street | Smith | Morin.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Mike Morin/Fernando Salas, Los Angeles Angels — After his blown save, Huston Street has pitched on three straight days (as has his lieutenant, Joe Smith). If the Angels get a save chance, we might learn whether Fernando Salas has nosed ahead of Mike Morin to be second in line.
2. Chris Hatcher, Los Angeles Dodgers — Yimi Garcia is still the top option, but Chris Hatcher recorded a save this week, proving the volatility of the situation. Rehabbing closer Kenley Jansen wants to come back next week, but Don Mattingly reigned that in a bit. For now, we’re dealing with a committee situation in LA.
3. Seth Maness, St. Louis Cardinals — Trevor Rosenthal has pitched on 5 of the last 7 days, and could be due for a night off Friday. He was called into action last night when Maness and Kevin Siegrist ran into trouble in the ninth inning of a 5-1 game.