Trevor Rosenthal ready to close again; Fernando Rodney on the ascent

June 19, 2015

Tampa Bay Rays — The committee chugs along in Tampa, where Brad Boxberger earned the save on Thursday night. Boxberger allowed a hit and struck out two in a complete ninth for the save, preceded by Jake McGee in a scoreless eighth, and Kevin Jepsen pitching around two hits and a walk in the seventh. We expect this committee to remain for the bulk of the season, with Boxberger still most likely to collect saves.

Hierarchy remains: *Boxberger | McGee | Jepsen.
* = closer-by-committee

Seattle Mariners — Carson Smith has converted all three save opportunities since taking over the closer’s role, but manager Lloyd McClendon is still worried about Smith’s durability, and said on Wednesday that old closer Fernando Rodney, or a combination of Rodney and others, would get the call when and if Smith is unavailable.

Updated hierarchy: *Smith | Rodney | Lowe.

Cleveland Indians — Bryan Shaw picked up his first save on Thursday night, but there’s nothing wrong with closer Cody Allen. During a long rain delay, manager Terry Francona had a lot of time to consider how to handle a bases-loaded threat in a tied fifth inning. Francona turned to Allen in the most pivotal moment of the game, and he got a fly out to end the danger, then followed with a 1-2-3 inning in the sixth. Zach McAllister then tossed 1.1 scoreless innings, leaving Shaw with the opportunity in the ninth. It’s safe to say this game featured some strange circumstances, and that Allen is still Francona’s man.

Hierarchy remains: Allen | McAllister | Shaw.

Colorado Rockies — Righty Brooks Brown was placed on the 15-day disabled list with shoulder inflammation, and Scott Oberg (5.55 ERA) had his second awful outing in three games, allowing three runs in an inning on Thursday night. So, who should slot in after John Axford in one of the worst bullpens in the major leagues? Mike Hampton? Pedro Astacio? Jose Jimenez? We’ll go with Boone Logan — who leads the team in holds (13) and averages 11.2 K/9 — and former closer LaTroy Hawkins, who tossed a scoreless inning with two strikeouts Thursday. It’s also worth keeping an eye on Tommy Kahnle, who has impressed since his major league callup on June 1.

Updated hierarchy: Axford | Logan | Hawkins.

St. Louis Cardinals — Trevor Rosenthal said after Wednesday night’s game that he feels he’s ready to return to closing, and on Thursday night, it appeared that was going to be the case. In a 1-0 game in the eighth inning, manager Mike Matheny sent Kevin Siegrist — who picked up a couple saves when Rosenthal was hurt — to the mound, while Rosenthal warmed up in the bullpen. Siegrist allowed the game-tying home run, though, so he earned the blown save and Rosenthal never got into the game. The Cardinals eventually lost when Kennys Vargas hacked a walkoff HR off Carlos Villanueva.

Hierarchy remains: Rosenthal | Siegrist | Maness.

Kansas City Royals — The last time we saw Greg Holland, he couldn’t record an out, and Wade Davis, the Robin to his Batman, was called on to convert the save. Holland returned with a vengeance Thursday night, earning the save while striking out two. Davis backed him up with a clean eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Tony Watson, Pittsburgh Pirates — Mark Melancon has earned saves on three straight nights, so he may be unavailable Friday.
2. Pedro Strop/Jason Motte, Chicago Cubs — Joe Maddon could turn to Strop, Motte, or Hector Rondon on any given night, depending on the matchup.
3. Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays — Brad Boxberger got the turn Thursday night, but keep an eye on Jake McGee, who also has three saves this year.

Trevor Rosenthal hurting; Greg Holland’s struggles continue

June 16, 2015

St. Louis Cardinals – Up one run in the 9th, Kevin Siegrist slammed the door for the Cards, picking up his second save of the year. After the game, Mike Matheny told reporters that closer Trevor Rosenthal has been experiencing “tightness” in his throwing arm. While Rosenthal has not been placed on the DL and remains the closer in St. Louis, owners desperate for saves may want to pick up Siegrist, who has been phenomenal this year.

Hierarchy remains: Rosenthal | Siegrist | Maness.

Kansas City Royals – Royals closer Greg Holland made a mess of the 9th inning against the Brewers last night, giving up four hits and three runs without recording an out before getting yanked. Uber-handcuff Wade Davis bailed out Holland for his 8th save of the year. Royals manager Ned Yost blamed himself for Holland’s struggles, noting that he has not used Holland in six games. For his part, Holland said he has never felt better, though he’s still got some really ugly ratios (13 Ks vs 10 BBs) this season.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds placed Tony Cingrani on the 15-day DL on Monday. The left-hander has struggled recently and an MRI confirmed swelling in his pitching shoulder. Fellow left-hander Manny Parra will replace Cingrani in our hierarchy. While a LOOGY, Parra has a sterling 0.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the season. Also expect Ryan Mattheus to pick up some more holds.

Updated hierarchy: Chapman | Hoover | Parra.

Miami Marlins – Carter Capps has been used in very high-leverage situations recently, including pitching the 8th inning in last night’s one-run game against the Yankees, striking out the side and picking up his third hold of the year. With the Marlins mixing and matching in the late innings, we think Capps has the best chance of running with the set-up man job. Sam Dyson, meanwhile, has been used more sparingly of late, and will bow out of our hierarchy for now.

Updated hierarchy: Ramos | Capps | Dunn.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Bobby Parnell, New York Mets – Jeurys Familia has thrown 87 pitches in the last 5 days, including 29 in a mess of an outing last night.
2. Keone Kela/Tanner Scheppers, Texas Rangers – Shawn Tolleson has pitched in the last 3 out of 4 games for the Rangers, including 2 straight.
3. Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays bullpen has been worked-over recently, with Osuna avoiding the brunt of the workload.
4. Kevin Siegrist, St. Louis Cardinals – Siegrist is the best bet for another save chance if Trevor Rosenthal needs another day off.

Weekly Hot Seat Update: June 12, 2015

A few quick lists this week, comprising all 30 of the top guys in our depth chart:

Top three closers at the moment — Zach Britton; David Robertson; Drew Storen
These guys have high strikeout rates, low walk rates, and there’s nothing in their advanced stats to suggest trouble ahead. Britton‘s GB% is second among all qualified relievers (69.8%).

Knocking on that door — Dellin Betances; Kenley Jansen
With Andrew Miller out for what could be an extended period of time, Betances will get the chance to prove that his impressive skills can play in the ninth inning. Jansen has looked good in his nine appearances, but the .071 BABIP is, er, unsustainable.

Pitching worse than their numbers — John Axford; Tyler Clippard; Greg Holland; Brad Ziegler
These four guys have combined for 37 saves with pretty decent ERAs, but each of them have worrying low K rates (mitigated some for Ziegler and Axford due to their high groundout rates) and are letting too many guys get on base. As we told you a few weeks ago, Holland‘s surface success is not supported by his underlying metrics, and we don’t recommend waiting until the two reach an equilibrium.

Probably better than you think — Luke Gregerson; Jason Grilli; Cody Allen; Hector Rondon; Brett Cecil; Brad Boxberger
The first three guys are raking in saves pretty well, and though their ERAs are higher than you’d like, the fundamentals look pretty solid. Rondon isn’t pitching lights-out or anything, but he doesn’t deserve to be ousted for a committee either. He and Clippard are nearly twins (same IP, same K rate), but Rondon has a much lower walk rate and has given up hits 5% more often on batted balls. And it’s not the fault of Cecil or Boxberger that they’re not getting any save opportunities lately (or, in Cecil‘s case, at all, ever); they’re doing most of what they’re being asked to do.

Guys with 13+ saves who are likely to regress — Joakim Soria; Mark Melancon; Santiago Casilla; Trevor Rosenthal; Francisco Rodriguez; Koji Uehara
If you have a strong bullpen, you might consider moving any of these guys in a trade. Play up those gaudy save numbers and don’t mention that Rosenthal and Soria have astronomically high strand rates that are keeping their ERAs artificially low, that K-Rod is boasting a sub-.220 BABIP for the second straight year, or that Koji Uehara is two months older than Allen Iverson. Sell high, friends.

Big names pitching well (enough) — Glen Perkins; Jonathan Papelbon; Aroldis Chapman; Craig Kimbrel; Huston Street
Some exposure to age and regression here — and there’s no telling where Papelbon might end up — but overall, these guys are getting it done.

Why you don’t have to pay for saves — Carson Smith; Shawn Tolleson; A.J. Ramos; Jeurys Familia
None of these guys were their team’s top choice coming into spring training, but through combinations of injuries and ineffectiveness, they’re closers now — and paying dividends for the owners fortunate enough to grab them first. We’ll be sure to keep you ahead of the curve on the next guys to make this list — maybe Evan Scribner, Wade Davis, or Tony Watson.

Weekly Hot Seat Update: May 29, 2015

With all the closer changes so far this season, it’s easy to see the value in owning guys who are first in line.  But while it’s always nice to have a new closer, wouldn’t it be even better to get the next dominant one?  Back in 2012, Greg Holland was first in line to saves for the Royals, behind Jonathan Broxton.  After the Royals traded Broxton, Holland stepped in and solidified himself as a top-five closer over the next several seasons.  Who could be the next Greg Holland?

Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays — McGee is a little different than the other guys on this list since he closed for a while last year, and could even see save chances right now, in a committee with Brad Boxberger.  Still, with McGee coming back from injury, and coming off a rough outing, this seemed like a good time to talk about him.  McGee was an elite reliever last year, striking out 90 batters to go along with an ERA under 2 and a WHIP under 1.  He gave up a grand slam on Tuesday to raise his ERA over 8.00 in limited appearances this season.  McGee’s strikeout numbers are still there (6 in 3.1 innings), and in his first three appearances he only gave up one hit.  If Boxberger gets hurt or starts to struggle, McGee could take the job and run with it.

Carson Smith, Seattle Mariners — Smith is probably the least well-known reliever on this list, but some people think he should take over as the Mariners closer right now.  Called up in September last year, Smith impressed in limited action, giving up only five baserunners in 8.1 innings.  Smith has continued to dominate hitters this season, giving up 9 hits while striking out 24 in 21 IP.  With over 40 saves in his minor league career, Smith has shown the ability to close out games, and should be a guy to watch the rest of this season.

Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies — When Ken Giles joined the Phillies last year in June, he gave up a run in his first appearance.  It took almost a month and a half before he gave up another one.  He finished 2014 with 64 strikeouts in 45.2 innings, good enough to rank him in the top 15 in K/9 among relief pitchers with more than 40 IP.  Giles has not been as dominant this year, but he’s still striking out about a batter per inning.  It’s no secret that the Phillies would like to trade their current closer, Jonathan Papelbon, and if that happens, Giles could step right in and be a lights-out closer.

Dellin Betances, New York Yankees — Remember when Dellin Betances was supposed to be the Yankees’ closer this season after David Robertson left?  Andrew Miller had a little something to say about that, but that hasn’t stopped Betances from remaining one of the best relievers in the game.  Betances has yet to allow an earned run in 26 innings so far this season, and his 41 strikeouts lead all relievers.  Although he wasn’t able to capitalize on Robertson’s departure early this season, he still looks like a guy who could be one of the best fantasy closers in baseball if he can get the full-time gig.

Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals – Let’s finish up with the guy who’s currently pitching behind the example we mentioned at the top.  Like Betances, Wade Davis has yet to allow an earned run this season, and has only given up 8 hits in 20 innings.  He also has 7 saves from when closer Greg Holland was hurt earlier this season.  Davis’s strikeout numbers aren’t as good as some of the other guys listed above, but he is still at almost one per inning, and he finished last season with over 100 Ks.

Sean Doolittle activated; Greg Holland struggling

May 26, 2015

Oakland Athletics – Sean Doolittle will be activated from the disabled list today. Bob Melvin has repeatedly said that while Doolittle won’t close right away, he will be serving in that role in short order. So we’re moving him to the top of the hierarchy because the assumption is that he will be the closer by the end of the week; we’ll tag him with an asterisk for now and remove it once he gets his first save.

Updated hierarchy: *Doolittle | Clippard | Scribner.
* = closer-by-committee

Texas Rangers – Neftali Feliz had only gotten into one game since the blown save that cost him his job, and on Monday we were given the reason — an abscess on his right side that has now resulted in a trip to the disabled list. Shawn Tolleson just picked up his fourth save in six games, and Feliz would have to do a lot upon returning to even get himself into the 1st in line spot. So if you don’t have a DL spot open, he’s probably droppable in most leagues at this point.

Hierarchy remains: Tolleson | Kela | Ohlendorf.

Kansas City Royals – In his first appearance since May 14, Greg Holland had a discouraging outing against the Yankees, allowing two runs while only recording one out. It was a blowout, and many closers are notoriously ineffective without the context of a save situation to jack up their adrenaline, but Holland wasn’t throwing as hard as usual. As we alluded in last week’s Hot Seat column, it might be time to buy some Wade Davis shares.

Hierarchy remains: Holland | Davis | Herrera.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Casey Janssen/Aaron Barrett, Washington Nationals – Drew Storen has pitched in back to back games, three of four, and five of seven. He could get the night off.
2. Seth Maness, St. Louis Cardinals – Trevor Rosenthal has pitched three innings over the last two days.
3. Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman has pitched in back to back games, throwing 46 pitches.
4. Chris Hatcher, Los Angeles Dodgers – Kenley Jansen has pitched in three of four and is coming off an injury.