Weekly Hot Seat Update: April 24, 2015

This week, we’ll spotlight the Pirates and check in on the four committees on our depth chart.

Pittsburgh Pirates

We’ve already written a lot about Mark Melancon’s velocity. Now, we’ll look at the arms behind him. But before we dive in, let’s state one thing up front so the rest of this section doesn’t get misconstrued: Tony Watson is the handcuff. He’s the guy you want. But for two reasons, we’re still going to spend a little time talking about the Pirates.

-Lefthandedness: Watson wouldn’t be the first set-up man who gets passed over just because he happens to be a lefty. But he’s got a few things going for him, chief among them that he’s faced a greater percent of righthanded batters every year since 2012 — this year, 29 of the 33 hitters that he’s retired have been righthanded. This makes him the farthest thing from a LOOGY this side of Aroldis Chapman. Also in Watson’s favor is that he’s not the only lefty in the bullpen — the Pirates can also look to Antonio Bastardo if they want to play matchups.

-Clint Hurdle: In 2012, Jason Grilli was one of the best set-up men in baseball. Pitching the 8th inning ahead of Joel Hanrahan, he put up 90 strikeouts in 58.2 innings, a 2.91 ERA, and 32 holds. And every time Hanrahan needed a night off, Grilli would still pitch the 8th inning and Juan Cruz would get the save opportunity. So Clint Hurdle has pulled the “I like my 8th inning guy to stay in the 8th inning no matter what” thing before. Fortunately, he’s already looked to Watson on nights when Melancon is unavailable.

If either of these factors does end up trumping Watson’s handcuff status, there are two guys who could potentially benefits. Jared Hughes had been the most effective reliever in the Pittsburgh bullpen until Wednesday, when he gave up 2 runs without recording an out. The wild card is Arquimedes Caminero, who throws 101 mph and has 11 strikeouts in 8.2 innings so far.

Quick takes on the committees:

Dodgers: Joel Peralta probably could’ve kicked his asterisk if he’d managed to lock down a 4-out save on Thursday. Instead, he walked the first two hitters he faced and didn’t have enough to return for the 9th inning. He’s still the best guy to own until Kenley Jansen comes up, though the newly recalled Sergio Santos might be someone to watch. Yimi Garcia is also having quite a season, and his save on Friday night could be a sign of big things to come.

Yankees: Despite all the turmoil that faced Dellin Betances in the early going, he’s still got a 0.00 ERA. And since starting the year with 6 walks in 3.1 innings, Betances has looked a lot more like his former self, posting 9 strikeouts and only 1 walk and 2 hits in his past 6 innings. Betances’s resurgence is probably why Joe Girardi stubbornly refuses to declare that Andrew Miller is the full-time stopper. Despite Miller’s early-season brilliance, Betances’s rally means the lefty is probably on a short leash.

Rays: The Rays know that Brad Boxberger is far and away their best reliever. They’re just using him the way sabermetricians have been urging for years — against the strongest portion of the other team’s lineup. So look for other relievers in Tampa to get a save opportunity every other week or so, with Kevin Jepsen being the best non-Boxberger reliever to own.

Blue Jays: Despite a powerful arsenal, Miguel Castro hasn’t been generating a ton of strikeouts, managing just 7 Ks (and 4 BBs) in 9.1 innings so far. Roberto Osuna is the one with the better ratios thus far (10 Ks, 3 BBs in 9.2 innings), while Brett Cecil continues to lurk with the “experience” trump card in his back pocket. Still hard to predict what’s going to happen here, though Castro obviously remains the guy with the leg up. (Though if the Jays stay in contention, their closer at the end of the season might be more the equine type.)

Other Hot Seat notes: Fernando Rodney has put up three scoreless innings since getting wrecked in back to back games earlier this month. Just as encouraging, his control seems to have returned, as he’s posted 5 Ks and 0 BBs in that span, compared with 1 K and 4 BBs in his first four outings… Cody Allen rebounded nicely the day after his meltdown on April 20. He’s probably bought himself at least a couple more blown saves before the Indians look elsewhere… Tyler Clippard’s ratios are alarming (2 Ks and 5 BBs in 6 innings), but he’s only allowed one run so far and no one else in the A’s bullpen has looked particularly sharp… Neftali Feliz still hasn’t pitched since his 47-pitch outing on April 19, but he’d probably need to blow another save before his seat gets hot.

Joe Nathan out for year; Mark Melancon picks up save despite continued low velocity

April 24, 2015

Detroit Tigers – Former closer Joe Nathan, the active leader in saves and the second-oldest player in the AL, is out for the season with a torn UCL in his pitching elbow. Nathan suffered the injury on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Toledo on Wednesday morning. Although Nathan will require a second Tommy John surgery, he insists that he will return to pitch another day. Joakim Soria, with 5 saves in 5 chances this season, should be secure in the closer role from this point forward. Ian Krol, meanwhile, got sent to the minors to work on his delivery, which will likely lead to more holds opportunities for Al Alburquerque.

Updated hierarchy: Soria | Chamberlain | Alburquerque.

Colorado Rockies — John Axford, back from dealing with his son’s snake bite, earned his second save of the season on Thursday, shutting down the Padres in the 9th. After the game, regular closer Adam Ottavino said that he had asked for the day off due to “usual pitcher soreness.” All indications are that Ottavino is fine and will remain the closer moving forward, but Axford will play an important role as well. In other news, former closer LaTroy Hawkins has been placed on the DL with tendinitis in his biceps. This is Hawkins’s final season in what has been a $47 million career; his next appearance in one of our updates may be as part of a front office.

Updated hierarchy: Ottavino | Axford | Betancourt.

Los Angeles Dodgers — LA continues to have the most volatile closing situation in the league. On Thursday, after Chris Hatcher and Joel Peralta had already pitched, Pedro Baez got the chance at his first career save, but promptly coughed up the one-run lead, allowing a leadoff single and a game-tying triple. Although Baez managed to strand that runner on third, the Dodgers went on to lose 3-2 against the Giants. The Baez move, which puzzled the great Vin Scully, shows how wide-open things are now in the Dodgers’ ninth. The uncertainty should end soon, with Kenley Jansen scheduled to begin a rehab assignment next week.

Hierarchy remains: *Peralta | Hatcher | Baez.
*closer-by-committee

New York Yankees — Andrew Miller picked up his AL-leading sixth save Wednesday; Miller, who has not allowed a run, has 15 strikeouts in 7 games this season. Joe Girardi hasn’t confirmed that Miller is the full-time closer, but we’re sure enough to remove the committee asterisk. Dellin Betances, meanwhile, has overcome his early control issues and allowed only one walk in his last five appearances. He’ll be the guy should Miller falter or get hurt.

Hierarchy remains: Miller | Betances | Carpenter.

Kansas City Royals — On Saturday, injured closer Greg Holland will be evaluated by team doctors, who will decide when he can begin a throwing program. Holland has not thrown a baseball since feeling discomfort in his pectoral muscle, but said he “feels a lot better.” He’s eligible to return from the DL on May 3, but it will take longer if his evaluation goes poorly. Wade Davis has done a fine job filling in for Holland, and he picked up the save Thursday night after a wild night in Chicago, where a bench-clearing brawl led to five ejections.

Hierarchy remains: Davis | Herrera | Frasor.

Pittsburgh Pirates — With his velocity still down, embattled Pirates closer Mark Melancon managed to shut down the Cubs 1-2-3 in the ninth inning Thursday, finishing with a strikeout of über-prospect Addison Russell. Melancon’s cut fastball hovered in the 85-90 mph range, down from the low-to-mid-90s range he reached for most of last season. Melancon remains Pittsburgh’s primary closer, but his seat ought to be feeling very warm…

Hierarchy remains: Melancon | Watson | Hughes.

Texas Rangers — Rangers manager Jeff Bannister will use Tanner Scheppers in lower-leverage situations for the time being after some rough outings. Bannister likes the righty’s stuff, so don’t be surprised to see Scheppers return to the eighth-inning role soon.

Updated hierarchy: Feliz | Tolleson | Scheppers.

Toronto Blue Jays – Liam Hendricks was ineffective in a 7-2 game, creating a save situation for Blue Jays committee head Miguel Castro. Castro made things even more interesting by giving up a three-run homer, but escaped with a fly out and a strikeout to end it. This poor outing notwithstanding, Castro remains the most likely closer on any given day.

Hierarchy remains: *Castro | Osuna | Cecil.
*closer-by-committee

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Roberto Osuna/Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays — Castro has pitched in two straight games and leads a committee, so Osuna or Cecil could see a chance Friday.
2. Chris Hatcher/Paco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Dodgers — It’s a closer-by-committee system until Jansen returns. It could be Hatcher’s turn on Friday, or they could turn to Rodriguez, one of the few relievers who didn’t pitch for the Dodgers last night.
3. Ernesto Frieri, Tampa Bay Rays — Manager Kevin Cash has made it clear that he’ll use his best reliever, Brad Boxberger, in the most important moments of a game, sometimes earlier than the ninth inning. This is a wise move for the Rays, but a headache for fantasy owners. Kevin Jepsen has pitched in two straight, so keep an eye on Frieri.
4. Jordan Walden, St. Louis Cardinals — Trevor Rosenthal has pitched in two straight games and could be in line for a night off Friday.
5. Jonathan Broxton, Milwaukee Brewers — Save opportunities are few and far between for the bad Brewers, but closer Francisco Rodriguez has pitched in two straight games (and on three days out of four). Look for Broxton to fill in if K-Rod needs a breather.

Joe Nathan suffers setback Wednesday

April 23, 2015

Detroit Tigers – The big league club got blown out, but the real story was with the Toledo Mud Hens. Joe Nathan was pulled from his rehab assignment after re-injuring his throwing arm. This is bad news for Nathan owners, but good news for Soria owners, as Soria seems locked in to the closer’s role for the time being.

Hierarchy remains: Soria | Chamberlain | Krol.

Tampa Bay Rays — Manager Kevin Cash earned a lot of praise Wednesday night for his willingness to use closer Brad Boxberger in the seventh inning of a tie game. The move paid off, as Boxberger struck out the heart of the Red Sox order. This led to Steven Geltz earning his first Major League save. Cash is of the mindset that his best reliever should pitch the most volatile situation, and this means that we’re back to calling this a committee for the time being. Boxberger is still the clear favorite for saves, but don’t be surprised if he is used in the seventh or eighth depending on the situation.

Hierarchy remains: *Boxberger | Jepsen | Frieri.
* closer-by-committee

Pittsburgh Pirates — After Tuesday’s troubles, Mark Melancon was ruled unavailable by manager Clint Hurdle before Wednesday’s game, with Hurdle maintaining that Melancon is still the closer. In a one-run game it was Tony Watson who got a six-out save for the Pirates in Melancon’s stead. As we noted yesterday, Melancon’s velocity is down and he has struggled mightily this season. Despite Hurdle’s statement, still expect to see Melancon on the hot seat in our weekly column.

Hierarchy remains: Melancon | Watson | Hughes.

Chicago Cubs — Jason Motte has had a rough start to the season, sporting an ERA over 6.00 in the early going. Edwin Jackson is reaping the benefits, and recently got a vote of confidence from his manager, saying he has earned the right to pitch in higher leverage situations. Maddon was quick to note that this was not a reflection on Motte or Brian Schlitter, but be ready to see Jackson picking up more holds for the Cubs.

Updated hierarchy: Rondon | Strop | Jackson.

Los Angeles Dodgers — Kenley Jansen is continuing his road back to bullpen this week with some bullpen sessions and a minor-league assignment could be on tap late next week. If everything goes as planned, Jansen is on target for a mid-May return.

Hierarchy remains: *Peralta | Hatcher | Baez.
*closer-by-committee

Toronto Blue Jays – Miguel Castro got a four-out save, but his committee colleagues Roberto Osuna and Brett Cecil also put in scoreless appearances. If all three continue to pitch well, manager John Gibbons may have more difficult decisions to make with the late innings. For now though, Castro is the favorite.

Hierarchy remains: *Castro | Osuna | Cecil.
*closer-by-committee

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Jumbo Diaz, Cincinnati Reds — Aroldis Chapman has pitched in two straight and the Reds have a matinee matchup.
2. Roberto Osuna/Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays — John Gibbons may use his relievers in different roles based on matchups.

Cody Allen struggling; Jake McGee on the mend

April 21, 2015

Cleveland Indians – Nick Hagadone is getting more opportunities in the late innings — he shared the 8th inning with Bryan Shaw last night — and is in line for more holds going forward. Cody Allen, meanwhile, imploded in the 9th, surrendering 4 runs and blowing a 3-run lead. He’s been very shaky so far this year, but after a stellar 2014 campaign, we don’t think his job is in jeopardy quite yet.

Updated hierarchy: Allen | Shaw | Hagadone.

Tampa Bay Rays – Jake McGee is on his way to the Durham Bulls to begin a rehab assignment after throwing a successful bullpen session on Sunday. Brad Boxberger has pitched well in the closer role to start the season, but expect McGee could potentially compete for save opportunities as soon as he completes his stint in Triple-A.

Hierarchy remains: Boxberger | Jepsen | Frieri.

Kansas City Royals – An MRI revealed that Greg Holland suffered a low-grade strain to his right pectoral muscle. As expected, Holland’s injury is not serious and should not have him sidelined for very long. Wade Davis will get saves in his absence, especially now that Kelvin Herrera may be suspended following his foray into headhunting on Sunday.

Hierarchy remains: Davis | Herrera | Frasor.

Detroit Tigers – In other injury news, Bruce Rondon is on the mend and has returned to throwing off a mound following being shut down with biceps tendonitis. He will return to the Tigers’ bullpen and could quickly become a strong holds option, pitching ahead of Joakim Soria until Old Man Joe Nathan hobbles back to the Hot Seat.

Hierarchy remains: Soria | Chamberlain | Krol.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Chad Qualls/Pat Neshek, Houston Astros – Luke Gregerson has pitched in three straight.
2. Roberto Osuna/Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays – John Gibbons has mixed and matched relievers for the past week.
3. Tanner Scheppers/Shawn Tolleson, Texas Rangers – Neftali Feliz might need a second day off after a marathon 47-pitch outing on Sunday.

Miguel Castro blows save, Wade Davis replaces Holland as closer

April 19, 2015

Toronto Blue Jays – Miguel Castro blew his first save of the season yesterday.  This was the first earned run given up by Castro, who has gotten off to a good start to the season much to the delight of the scout who signed him.   Brett Cecil pitched a scoreless 10th and picked up the win after Josh Donaldson hit a walk-off homer in the bottom of the inning.  This all comes just one night after Cecil had a terrible outing, and it looked like Castro had the chance to solidify himself as the closer.  With Castro and Cecil pitching on back-to-back days, Osuna could get the call on Sunday if there is a save opportunity and further complicate things in the Blue Jays bullpen.

Hierarchy remains: *Castro | Osuna | Cecil.
*closer-by-committee

Kansas City Royals — Greg Holland has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a right pectoral strain.  The injury does not appear to be serious, but Holland will be rested for about a week.  Wade Davis will take over closing duties in his absence, with Kelvin Herrera handling the 8th inning.

Updated hierarchy: Davis | Herrera | Frasor.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Joel Peralta recorded his third save of the season last night.  Chris Hatcher got the last out of the 7th and J.P. Howell pitched the 8th.  Peralta has not given up a hit in his last four appearances and looks to be asserting himself as the primary closer until Kenley Jansen returns.

Hierarchy remains: *Peralta | Hatcher | Baez.
*closer-by-committee

New York Mets — Alex Torres came on to get the last out of the 9th inning and record his first career save.  With Jeurys Familia and Jerry Blevins getting the night off, Carlos Torres made a mess of a 4 run lead to start the 9th.  He gave up three runs and had the tying run on first base, before A. Torres struck out Christian Yelich to end the game.

Hierarchy Remains: Familia | C.Torres | Blevins.

Oakland A’s — Jesse Chavez recorded a save yesterday by pitching the last 3.2 innings after starter Jesse Hahn left with an injury.  Chavez does not factor into the A’s late inning plans but Sean Doolittle will when he returns and he is making progress.

Hierarchy remains: Clippard | O’Flaherty | Otero.

Tampa Bay Rays — Grant Balfour gave up 3 runs last night, and the Rays decided they have seen enough.  Balfour was designated for assignment after the game.

Updated hierarchy: Boxberger | Jepsen | Frieri.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays – Miguel Castro and Brett Cecil have both pitched in two straight
2. Joaquin Benoit, San Diego Padres – Craig Kimbrel has pitched on back-to-back days and three of the last four.
3. Pedro Strop/Jason Motte, Chicago Cubs – Hector Rondon blew the save yesterday and has appeared in two straight games, throwing a total of 48 pitches.  Pedro Strop has also pitched in two straight so the Cubs could go to Motte if they want to give Strop the day off as well.