Trade Deadline Buy/Sell Report: American League Closers

July 17, 2013

SPECIAL UPDATE: TRADE DEADLINE BUY/SELL REPORT (PART ONE OF TWO)

Glossary
BUY+: This player has a large chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR Version
BUY+: Jose Cisnero
BUY: Matt Lindstrom; Glen Perkins; Jared Burton; Ryan Cook; Yoervis Medina
SELL: Koji Uehara; Addison Reed; Grant Balfour
SELL+: Joaquin Benoit; Jose Veras; Oliver Perez

Baltimore Orioles — In the thick of an extremely competitive AL East race, the O’s are likely to stay with their current approach in the bullpen: Darren O’Day and Tommy Hunter pitching effectively in front of an inconsistent Jim Johnson. BUY/SELL: None.
Boston Red Sox — Boston might not be satisfied with adding Matt Thornton; there’s still a chance that they acquire Bobby Parnell, Jonathan Papelbon, Addison Reed, or Francisco Rodriguez, any of whom would significantly erode Koji Uehara’s fantasy value. SELL: Koji Uehara.
New York Yankees — With all the injuries stalking the Bronx this season (including a 97 MPH All-Star Game fastball to Robinson Cano’s quadriceps), the late innings are the least of Joe Girardi’s concerns. Although New York could always add a setup arm, there’s not a pitcher in the world who could derail Mariano Rivera’s farewell tour. BUY/SELL: None.
Tampa Bay Rays — Fernando Rodney isn’t the most reliable closer in the league, but the Rays are still likely to stand pat at this year’s trade deadline. BUY/SELL: None.
Toronto Blue Jays — The Jays’ bullpen has been the team’s biggest strength this disappointing season, and although they might move a pitcher if they get the right offer, any trade is unlikely to affect the save picture. BUY/SELL: None. 

Chicago White Sox — With the White Sox languishing in the AL Central basement, Addison Reed could be traded if another team makes a great offer. If Reed does move, he’ll either take on a setup role (drastically decreasing his value) or close for a better team (mildly increasing it). On balance, we think the rest of this season will see a slight regression in Reed’s worth to you. Meanwhile, if Reed is traded, Matt Lindstrom will probably be the White Sox pitcher who benefits most. Jesse Crain could be in the mix also, once he returns from his injury, but (as noted in the link above) he’s even more likely to be flipped this month. BUY: Matt Lindstrom. SELL: Addison Reed.
Cleveland Indians — The Indians need to add a lefty arm and perhaps replace Vinnie Pestano, but Chris Perez and Cody Allen are pretty secure. BUY/SELL: None.
Detroit Tigers — Detroit is likely to trade for one or two relief pitchers; although it’s not yet clear whether they will replace Joaquin Benoit with a “proven closer” or simply reload with middle relief reinforcements, we think Benoit’s days as the closer in Comerica are numbered. SELL+: Joaquin Benoit.
Kansas City Royals — Although there’s a strong case that Kansas City should flip Greg Holland now, at the height of his value, the three years of team control remaining suggest that he’ll remain a Royal for a while. BUY/SELL: None.
Minnesota Twins — Glen Perkins is too good a closer to stay on this bad Minnesota team; if he’s traded, he’ll almost certainly be closing for a contender, while Ron Gardenhire goes to Jared (Burton) and dreams of someday getting a ring. BUY: Glen Perkins, Jared Burton.

Houston Astros — With Houston as bad as expected, Jose Veras is extremely likely to be traded this July — but he’ll probably move into a setup role wherever he ends up. Jose Cisnero is expected to succeed Veras, if necessary. BUY+: Jose Cisnero. SELL+: Jose Veras.
Los Angeles Angels — It’s been a disappointing year for the Angels and it’s unlikely that any exciting bullpen trade news will spark a second-half renaissance. BUY/SELL: None.
Oakland A’s — Oakland might add another arm in middle relief; they were chasing Matt Thornton before the Red Sox sealed that deal. With Grant Balfour facing free agency, though, don’t put it past Billy Beane to deal his All-Star closer, even with the A’s atop their division. BUY: Ryan Cook. SELL: Grant Balfour.
Seattle Mariners — Oliver Perez and Charlie Furbush are both attractive trade bait; Perez’s save chances are likely to drop off dramatically if (and when) he’s moved. Yoervis Medina could benefit as a result. BUY: Yoervis Medina. SELL+: Oliver Perez.
Texas Rangers — The Rangers are very happy with their deep bullpen; any trade they make will focus on their offense or starting rotation. BUY/SELL: None.

The Pedro Strop experiment going well in Chicago so far

July 15, 2013

Seattle Mariners – Charlie Furbush pitched the 8th inning ahead of Tom Wilhelmsen last night, marking the third time out of his last five appearances that he picked up an 8th inning hold.  Seattle bullpen usage has been hard to figure out since the return of Tom Wilhelmsen.  Oliver Perez got a save as recently as 10 days ago, while Yoervis Medina has been better than almost anyone, though recently, he’s generally been pitching the 9th when the M’s have a lead in a non-save situations.  If there’s actually a suitor for Tom Wilhelmsen at the trade deadline (which seems unlikely at this point), then Furbush’s high strikeout rates will throw him in to the mix for Seattle saves along with Perez and Medina.  No hierarchy change.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
SEATom WilhelmsenOliver PerezYoervis MedinaTom Wilhelmsen7/15/13
Stephen Pryor (DL)

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Chicago Cubs – Pedro Strop got out of a tight situation in the 6th inning last night, and was briefly in line for the win until Matt Guerrier blew the save the following inning.  Strop, so dominant for the Orioles in the first half last year, is trying to regain his form in Chicago, and the early returns are good: He’s now pitched 6 scoreless innings for the Cubs, allowing only 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 7.  Kevin Gregg did the Cubs no favors by imploding in the 9th last night, but if he’s dealt, Strop has an outside chance to inherit the 9th inning.  Hierarchy change: Pedro Strop to 2nd in line, replacing Matt Guerrier.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
CHCKevin GreggBlake ParkerPedro StropBlake Parker7/15/13

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Santiago Casilla back, Casey Fien pitching well

July 14, 2013

San Francisco Giants — Santiago Casilla was activated from the DL on Saturday and should resume his role as the set-up man ahead of Sergio Romo. Hierarchy change: Santiago Casilla to Set-up, Jeremy Affeldt to 2nd in line.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
SFSergio RomoSantiago CasillaJeremy AffeldtSergio Romo7/14/13

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Minnesota Twins – Casey Fien pitched the 8th ahead of Glen Perkins last night to pick up his 10th hold of the season.  Fien has not allowed a run and has only given up 4 hits in his last 9 appearances .  Hierarchy change:  Casey Fien to 2nd in line, replacing Caleb Thielbar.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
MINGlen PerkinsJared BurtonCasey FienGlen Perkins7/14/13

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Texas Rangers – Joakim Soria pitched the 8th inning with the Rangers up 3 on Saturday.  Soria has made 3 appearances since being activated off the DL and has yet to allow a run while picking up a hold in each appearance.  Hierarchy change: Joakim Soria to 2nd in line, replacing Neal Cotts.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
TEXJoe NathanTanner ScheppersJoakim SoriaJoe Nathan7/14/13

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VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. David Hernandez, Arizona Diamondbacks – Brad Ziegler has pitched in four of the past five games.

 

David Hernandez and Cody Allen record saves

July 13, 2013

Arizona Diamondbacks – As expected, Brad Ziegler was given the night off on Friday.  However, it was David Hernandez, and not J.J. Putz, who got the save.  J.J. Putz and Heath Bell were used to get through the 8th inning.  Manager Kirk Gibson told Hernandez before the game that he was going to get the call in the 9th so it appears he is ahead of Putz and Bell for saves.   Hierarchy change: David Hernandez to Set-up, J.J. Putz to 2nd in line.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
ARIBrad ZieglerDavid HernandezJ.J. PutzJ.J. Putz7/12/13

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Cleveland Indians — Cody Allen picked up his second save of the season last night as Chris Perez was given the night off after pitching in 5 of the past 6 games.  Cody Allen has 52 ks in 39.2 innings this season and should continue to see save opportunities if Perez is unavailable.  Hierarchy change: Cody Allen to Set-up, Joe Smith to 2nd in line.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
CLEChris PerezCody AllenJoe SmithChris Perez7/12/13

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Chicago White Sox – Matt Thornton has been traded to the Boston Red Sox.  Matt Lindstrom and Nate Jones should see time in the set-up role with Thornton gone.  Hierarchy change: Matt Lindstrom to Set-up, Nate Jones to 2nd in line.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
CHWAddison ReedMatt LindstromNate JonesAddison Reed7/12/13
Jesse Crain (DL)

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VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Junichi Tazawa, Boston Red Sox – Koji Uehara has pitched in two straight and three of the past four games.

 

Arizona going closer-by-committee; Tom Wilhelmsen struggling

July 12, 2013

Tampa Bay Rays – Fernando Rodney had the night off on Thursday, and Jake McGee who got the save in his absence.  The opp likely would’ve gone to Joel Peralta, but Peralta had to be summoned in the 8th inning to bail the Rays out of a sticky situation.  But McGee has been pitching very well lately, having only allowed 3 runs in his last 24.2 innings, and his usage over the past week suggest that he’s basically sharing the set-up role with Peralta at this point.  No hierarchy change.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
TBFernando RodneyJoel PeraltaJake McGeeFernando Rodney7/12/13

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Seattle Mariners – Tom Wilhelmsen has had two rough outings in a row, giving up two runs in a blowout on Wednesday and taking an extra-inning loss on Thursday.  He hasn’t done much to seize back the closer role since being re-appointed earlier this month.  Tom Wilhelmsen to Hot Seat.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
SEATom WilhelmsenOliver PerezYoervis MedinaTom Wilhelmsen7/12/13
Stephen Pryor (DL)

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Arizona Diamondbacks – Heath Bell has lost his hold on the closer’s role, and the D-Backs are going to a closer by committee. Arizona will be playing matchups for the time being, but Brad Ziegler was brought in to close the game tonight, and sports a 2.49 ERA, the best of the relievers in the Arizona pen. He has some experience closing from his days in Oakland, and it is likely that he will be given some opportunities going forward. Former closer J.J. Putz could find himself back in that role as well, as he had pitched the last two games and Gibson ruled him out before the game. Hierarchy change: Brad Ziegler to Closer, replacing Heath Bell.

.Closer.Set-Up.2nd in line.2014 Closer.Updated
ARIBrad ZieglerJ.J. PutzDavid HernandezJ.J. Putz7/11/13

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VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Yoervis Medina, Seattle Mariners – Tom Wilhelmsen has had two rough outings in a row, giving up two runs in a blowout on Wednesday and taking an extra-inning loss on Thursday.  He’ll likely get the day off today, as will Oliver Perez, who threw 30 pitches last night.  Medina is the best bet for a save chance tonight.
2. J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks – Brad Ziegler has pitched in three straight, and Putz might be sharing the closer role at this point anyway.  He’s the best bet to get the call tonight.