Mark Melancon rising; random saves for Darren Oliver, Kevin Jepsen

July 16, 2012

Toronto Blue Jays – Darren Oliver pitched the last two innings in a three-run game for the Jays last night, earning his first save of the season.  Casey Janssen remains the team’s regular closer, and will maintain that role for the foreseeable future, as the Jays also announced Sunday that Sergio Santos would undergo season-ending surgery.  No hierarchy change. 

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedTOR |Janssen |Oliver |Frasor |Santos |7/16/12

 
Los Angeles Angels – Both Ernesto Frieri and Scott Downs were unable to close the game out in the 9th inning against the Yankees on Sunday.  After they combined to allow three runs and six baserunners, Kevin Jepsen got the game’s final out, retiring Alex Rodriguez to earn his first save of the season.  Jepsen does not figure in to the Angels usual late-inning hierarchy.  No hierarchy change. 

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedLAA |Frieri |Downs |Hawkins |Walden |7/16/12

 
Boston Red Sox – The Red Sox placed Scott Atchison on the DL on Sunday.  After finishing the 7th and 8th innings on Sunday, Mark Melancon has given up just 1 run in 13.2 innings since returning from the minors.  He has struck out 12 and walked only 2 in that span, and moves up in Atchison’s absence.  Hierarchy change: Mark Melancon to 2nd in line, replacing Scott Atchison. 

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedBOS |Aceves |Padilla |Melancon |Bailey |7/16/12 |Bailey(DL) |

 
VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman has pitched in three straight.

Greg Holland returns to 8th inning role for Royals

July 15, 2012

Kansas City Royals – Greg Holland has re-taken the lead as the Royals go-to set-up man, an important spot to watch, given the likelihood that Jonathan Broxton will be dealt.  Holland helped to finish off the 7th, and then pitched the 8th inning for the second night in a row, earning the win.  Hierarchy change: Greg Holland to Set-up, Aaron Crow to 2nd in line.  

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedKC |Broxton |Holland |Crow |Broxton |7/15/12 |Soria(DL) |

 
New York Mets – The Mets bullpen is a mess at the moment, but the recently returned Pedro Beato could help provide some stability.  Beato was often used in the 8th inning last year, and could ease back in to a late inning role soon.  Hierarchy change: Pedro Beato to 2nd in line, replacing Tim Byrdak.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedNYM |Parnell |Rauch |Beato |Francisco |7/15/12 |Francisc(DL)|

 
VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins – Ron Gardenhire said he wanted to give Matt Capps one or two lower-pressure roles before re-inserting him as closer.  Capps got one such appearance yesterday, pitching the 8th inning in a blowout, but if the Twins want to hold him out of the 9th inning for another day, Glen Perkins will get the save chance.

Kris Medlen rising in Atlanta; Matt Capps returns

July 14, 2012

Minnesota Twins – The Twins activated Matt Capps from the DL.  He will resume closing immediately, as the Twins are hoping to build his value so they can deal him.  Hierarchy change: Matt Capps to Closer, Glen Perkins to Set-up, Jared Burton to 2nd in line.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedMIN |Capps |Perkins |Burton |Perkins |7/14/12

 
Atlanta Braves – Kris Medlen pitched two solid innings in relief yesterday, striking out 3 without allowing a hit.  Even once Jonny Venters returns from injury, Medlen may remain ahead of him on the depth chart.  Kris Medlen to 2nd in line, replacing Jonny Venters.

 |Closer |Set-Up |2nd In Line |2013 Closer |UpdatedATL |Kimbrel |O'Flaherty |Medlen |Kimbrel |7/14/12

 

Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: American League Closers

July 13, 2012

SPECIAL UPDATE: TRADE DEADLINE BUY/SELL (PART 2 OF 2)

Glossary
BUY+: This player has a large chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance of  losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TLDR Version
BUY+: Aaron Crow, Glen Perkins.
BUY: Greg Holland, Jared Burton, Grant Balfour, Brandon League, Charlie Furbush
SELL: Addison Reed, Tom Wilhelmsen
SELL+: Jonathan Broxton, Matt Capps

Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles bullpen has been spectacular, top to bottom, thus far this year.  Jim Johnson and Pedro Strop have been solid in their roles, and the Orioles are unlikely to seek any help at the deadline.  They’re leading the race for the second Wild Card and aren’t going to be selling, either.  BUY/SELL: None.
Boston Red Sox – Alfredo Aceves and Vicente Padilla are both playing out 1-year contracts, but it’s unlikely the Red Sox will be selling at the deadline– despite being tied for last place in the AL East, they’re still well within range of a Wild Card spot.  Despite some early struggles, Aceves and Padilla have been solid at the back end of the Sox rotation, and an acquisition is unlikely to affect the immediate hierarchy.  Daniel Bard, returned to a relief role, could potentially shake things up if they struggle, however.  BUY/SELL: None.
New York Yankees – Rafael Soriano has been rock solid since taking over the 9th inning, while David Robertson has continued to be spectacular in any role other than closer.  Any acquisitions the Yankees make are unlikely to affect their hierarchy.  BUY/SELL: None.
Tampa Bay Rays – Fernando Rodney’s dominance has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, and with Kyle Farnsworth recently returned from the DL, the Rays are unlikely to add any bullpen arms.  BUY/SELL: None.
Toronto Blue Jays – Whether the Blue Jays are buyers or sellers has been a topic of debate, with GM Alex Anthopolous saying earlier this month that they were buyers, while Buster Olney reported a few days later that other executives were expecting the Jays to sell.  But even if they do sell, Casey Janssen has a 2-year deal and would likely be sticking around.  And if they buy, they’ll probably look somewhere other than the bullpen, as they’ve got Sergio Santos returning soon.  BUY/SELL: None. 

Chicago White Sox – The White Sox are buying, and that’s potentially bad news for their solid, but young bullpen.  They could look to acquire a veteran, and even though Addison Reed has only blown one save in 14 chances, the acquisition of a Huston Street or a Jonathan Broxton could mean Reed is pushed back to set-up duty.  BUY: None.  SELL: Addison Reed.
Cleveland Indians – The trade rumors surrounding the Indians have generally been centered on hitting, as they seem unlikely to be shopping for any relief help at the deadline.  BUY/SELL: None.
Detroit Tigers – The Tigers are looking to buy, but like the Indians, they seem to be in the market for a bat, or possibly a starting pitcher.  Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit have been solid at the back-end of the Tigers’ pen, and their hierarchy is unlikely to be affected by any deals.  BUY/SELL: None.
Kansas City Royals – Jonathan Broxton is likely to move by the break, and will likely see his value drop if he goes to a contender that plugs him in to a set-up role.  Certain to benefit, however, is Aaron Crow, or possibly Greg Holland, who would inherit the closer job if Broxton moves.  BUY+: Aaron Crow.  BUY: Greg Holland.  SELL+: Jonathan Broxton.
Minnesota Twins – Once Matt Capps returns from the DL, the Twins will look to deal him.  With his paltry strikeout rates, it’s unlikely that he would land anywhere where he could close, and his value will almost certainly plummet.  Glen Perkins, who just signed a three-year extension, won’t be going anywhere and stands to continue getting saves.  BUY+: Glen Perkins.  BUY: Jared Burton.  SELL+: Matt Capps.

Los Angeles Angels – The Angels have the best closer/set-up combo in the majors with Ernesto Frieri and Scott Downs.  They’re leading the Wild Card race so are obviously not selling, and any acquisitions they make are unlikely to affect their hierarchy.  BUY/SELL: None.
Oakland A’s – Ryan Cook isn’t going anywhere, but the A’s are actively looking to move Grant Balfour.  If Balfour catches on with the right team– like the Mets, or possibly the Cardinals– he could be in the mix for saves.  BUY: Grant Balfour.  SELL: None. 
Seattle Mariners – The Mariners are actively shopping Brandon League, but Tom Wilhelmsen’s name hasn’t surfaced in any reported trade talks thus far.  Like most closers for bottom feeders, Wilhelmsen’s value will either drop sharply (if he’s traded to a team that uses him in the 8th inning) or rise slightly (if he’s able to close for a contender), making him a somewhat scary fantasy proposition.  If League is dealt, his value will probably drop or remain the same, but it could skyrocket if he remains and Wilhelmsen is shipped off.  A deep sleeper for saves is Charlie Furbush, who has only given up 2 runs in his last 23.2 innings and could inherit the job if the Mariners are able to move both Wilhelmsen and League.  BUY: Brandon League, Charlie Furbush.  SELL: Tom Wilhelmsen.
Texas Rangers – With the second-best record in all of baseball, the Rangers will be buyers at the trade deadline.  They might look to add a set-up man, as Mike Adams has been somewhat shaky this season, but no pick-up will supplant Joe Nathan at closer.  BUY/SELL: None.

 

Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: National League Closers

July 12, 2012

SPECIAL UPDATE: TRADE DEADLINE BUY/SELL (PART 1 OF 2)

Glossary
BUY+: This player has a large chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance of  losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TLDR Version
BUY+: Brandon Lyon, Francisco Rodriguez, Luke Gregerson.
BUY: Jose Veras, David Hernandez, Dale Thayer.
SELL: Frank Francisco, John Axford, Jason Motte, J.J. Putz, Huston Street.
SELL+: Brett Myers.

Atlanta Braves – Atlanta is still in the playoff hunt and could look to add an arm down the stretch.  This is unlikely to mean much to their bullpen hierarchy, however, as no one they could possibly acquire could threaten Craig Kimbrel.  BUY/SELL: None. 
Miami Marlins – The Marlins need bullpen help, but are several games under .500 and are unlikely to make any moves either way.  They have former closer Juan Oviedo (Leo Nunez) returning from suspension soon, and will hope to rally with the staff they have.  BUY/SELL: None. 
New York Mets – The Mets may look to add an arm in the bullpen– Grant Balfour’s name has been bandied about– and that’s actually bad news for their current crop of relievers.  Frank Francisco, due to return from the DL after the All Star Break, has been far from solid, and any new acquisition could push him for the closer’s job.  BUY: None.  SELL: Frank Francisco. 
Philadelphia Phillies – Despite the Phillies’ struggles, they’re unlikely to sell off any valuable bullpen assets.  Jonathan Papelbon has a long term contract, and they value Antonio Bastardo too highly to move him.  BUY/SELL: None.
Washington Nationals – Even without Drew Storen– who is expected back in a few weeks– the first place Nats have one of the strongest bullpens in the NL.  They’re unlikely to make any moves that would affect their hierarchy.  BUY/SELL: None.

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs are selling anything and everything, but they may not have many takers for the top arms in their bullpen.  Carlos Marmol has a big contract and is far too volatile to generate any interest.  Meanwhile, Shawn Camp, James Russell and Rafael Dolis are unlikely to affect the 9th inning role if they do end up landing anywhere else.  BUY/SELL: None.
Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman, despite some recent road bumps, is locked in to the closer role for the remainder of the year.  Sean Marshall has also been rock solid in the 8th inning role.  If the Reds look to make a trade, it won’t affect the bullpen.  BUY/SELL: None.
Houston Astros – The Astros are looking to move Brett Myers, whose has a $10 million option that will kick in if he finishes 45 games.  This makes him an interesting trade acquisition, as cash-strapped teams may be reluctant to move him into the closer role if they acquire him.  Unfortunately, this also hurts his value, as it further decreases the chance that he’ll close wherever he lands.  Brandon Lyon would inherit the job if Myers is dealt, which seems likely at this point.  BUY+: Brandon Lyon.  SELL+: Brett Myers.
Milwaukee Brewers – Brewers GM Doug Melvin said he would like to see how the team performs in the weeks after the break before deciding to sell.  But if they do, they have several players in the bullpen that could interest contenders.  John Axford has blown a handful of saves this year, and like most closers on bottom feeders, could see his value drop if he is dealt and moved into a set-up role.  Francisco Rodriguez and Jose Veras have also been mentioned in trade talks, though their values are likely to rise if they (or Axford) is moved.  BUY+: Francisco Rodriguez.  BUY: Jose Veras.  SELL: John Axford.
Pittsburgh Pirates – The first-place Pirates are buyers, but most media reports have them seeking a bat, not an arm.  Even if they were to tack on in the bullpen, an acquisition would probably inherit the 7th or 8th inning role, as Joel Hanrahan has been solid all year.  BUY/SELL: None.
St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals need some bullpen help, as Jason Motte has been shaky for much of the season.  The St. Louis Dispatch reported on Tuesday that Huston Street could be an option, and Street expressed the desire to close if he moves elsewhere.  Such a deal could hurt Motte’s value.  BUY: None.  SELL: Jason Motte.

Arizona Diamondbacks – They haven’t performed as well as expected, but the Diamondbacks are only four games out of first.  But as of right now, they’re sellers, reportedly listening to offers to Justin Upton.  J.J. Putz is an interesting trade target, and though his name hasn’t surfaced in trade talks yet, but he’s in the last year of his contract (the D’Backs have a club option) and could generate interest from contenders.  However, this might be more likely to hurt his value than help it, as he could land with a team that puts him in a set-up role.  David Hernandez would inherit the role if he gets traded.  BUY: David Hernandez.  SELL: J.J. Putz.
Colorado Rockies – ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Rockies would have to be overwhelmed in a deal for either Rafael Betancourt or Matt Belisle, so there isn’t much chance that either will move before the trade deadline.  At 32-51, the Rockies are obviously not buyers, either.  BUY/SELL: None.
Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers’ bullpen is solid, with Kenley Jansen still racking up strikeouts at an absurd rate.  They’re unlikely to be factors in the bullpen market at the deadline.  BUY/SELL: None.
San Diego Padres – Huston Street is a great bet to move somewhere else before the All Star Break, and a trade would either cause his value to rise slightly (if he goes to a contender and continues to close out games) or plummet (if he becomes a set-up man).  But a definite beneficiary is Luke Gregerson– or possibly Dale Thayer– who could see saves once Street lands elsewhere.  BUY+: Luke Gregerson.  BUY: Dale Thayer.  SELL: Huston Street. 
San Francisco Giants – The Giants proved last year that they’re willing to make a splash at the deadline, but they’re unlikely to make any moves, bullpen-wise, as they have two solid top-tier relievers in Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo.  BUY/SELL: None.