Closer Monkey

As the month concludes, things remain unsettled in multiple bullpens, but what is even more confusing is predicting how the trade deadline will affect leverage ladders. More clarity may evolve by the All-Star break, but this will be a pivotal stretch for teams on the bubble. Across Sunday’s full slate, relievers recorded nine wins and seven saves while suffering six losses. Here are the saves in condensed form:

For the save streamers, a light forecast:

Vulture Save Option for June 30

• Jeremiah Estrada (SD): Suarez, Adam, and Morejon have all pitched the previous two days. 

Vulture Save Stashes for July 1

• Bryan Baker (BAL): If Bautista pitches today, it would be back-to-back appearances. 
• Jordan Hicks (BOS): If Chapman pitches on Monday, it would mark consecutive outings. 
• Taijuan Walker (PHI): Kerkering and Strahm pitched on Sunday; if they are used on Monday, it’s two-in-a-row. 

Under the Hood: Robert Suarez

Entering with a one-run lead against the Reds’ 3-4-5 lineup pocket, Robert Suarez allowed a lead-off infield single by Elly De La Cruz, issued Gavin Lux a one-out walk, and a game-tying RBI single by Spencer Steer. With two runners on, Jose Trevino singled, loading the bases, followed by Will Benson’s walk-off RBI single, resulting in Suarez’s fourth loss and a third blown save. He threw 26 pitches (16 strikes – 61.5 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (11.5 SwStr%). First, his illustrator:

And his results:

His recent rough patch continued, allowing at least a run in four of his last seven appearances since June 14, recording a 3.721 WHIP with four strikeouts and four walks in his last 4.1 innings. This coincides with his struggles after a strong start to the season. Breaking his first 37 games in half appears as such:

• Suarez’s first 18 games: 17.2 IP, 15 saves, 18:4 K:BB (23 K-BB%), 0.565 WHIP, 69.4 Strike%, 12.8 SwStr%
• Suarez’s last 19 games (since May 12): 17 IP, 8 saves in 11 chances, 18:8 K:BB (12.8 K-BB%), 1.647 WHIP, 66.1 Strike%, 9.7 SwStr%

Taking this a step further, his splits by pitch in them:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/A2TdR/1/

He experienced a similar erosion of results after the All-Star break last year. Still, the rise in contact, and specifically hard contact, along with drops in K-BB percentage and whiffs, should concern fantasy managers. Here is his rolling game chart:

His next two weeks may not only determine his role in the second half, but they may also impact his opt-out decision at the end of the season. This will be monitored closely.

Here are the remaining leverage events of interest from Sunday.

Closer CliffsNotes

Chicago White Sox – Summoned with the bases loaded and one out at the top of the eighth, Mike Vasil not only stranded all three runners but also logged 1.2 scoreless frames, securing his second save. He allowed a walk and recorded a strikeout while throwing 17 pitches (9 strikes – 52.9 Strike%) without a whiff.

• Tyler Gilbert was awarded his second win, allowing a hit, a hit batter, and a walk while striking out two during a scoreless combined inning.
• Dan Altavilla tossed 1.1 scoreless frames and recorded a strikeout.
• Jordan Leasure gave up a hit, an earned run, and three walks while striking out one in the fifth.

Hierarchy Remains: *Grant Taylor | *Brandon Eisert | *Steven Wilson

*= closer-by-committee

Cincinnati Reds – Working around a walk for a scoreless top of the ninth with his team trailing by one, Emilio Pagán picked up his first win following a walk-off rally at the bottom of the inning. He threw 16 pitches (50 Strike%) and one whiff. Through nine games in June, he has this win while converting four of five save chances, posting a 0.753 WHIP with 13 strikeouts versus five walks (22.9 K-BB%) across 9.1 innings.

• Taylor Rogers worked a clean eighth.
• Tony Santillan stranded two of three inherited runners while retiring both batters in the seventh.

Updated Hierarchy: Emilio Pagán | Tony Santillan | Lyon Richardson

Colorado Rockies – Handed a one-run lead at the bottom of the 11th, Tyler Kinley notched his third save, retiring the side and striking out two. It’s his first save since June 4.

• Victor Vodnik had an adventurous tenth, giving up Sal Frelick’s lead-off single, scoring the game-tying run on a wild pitch, issuing a walk, then retiring the next two batters, keeping the game tied. He suffered his third blown save and collected his third win as a result.
• Seth Halvorsen navigated around two infield singles and a walk while striking out one for a scoreless ninth, preserving the tie. Juan Mejia tossed a clean eighth.
• Jake Bird logged 1.1 scoreless frames and recorded one strikeout.

Hierarchy Remains: Seth Halvorsen | Victor Vodnik | Jake Bird

Detroit Tigers – Locking down his 13th save, Will Vest retired the Twins’ 9-1-2 hitters in order, one via strikeout, completing a combined shutout. He only needed eight pitches (75 Strike%) and produced two whiffs (25 SwStr%).

This marked his first save since June 12, and he has been scoreless over his last three appearances. Vest was taking over as the closer before the injury scare with his pinky finger, and may receive this designation by the All-Star break.

• Tommy Kahnle notched his 11th hold, allowing a hit during a scoreless top of the eighth.

Hierarchy Remains: *Will Vest | *Tommy Kahnle | Tyler Holton

*= closer-by-committee with a preferred save share (Vest)

Houston Astros – Slamming the door on his AL-leading 23rd save, Josh Hader retired the side and recorded a strikeout, completing a combined shutout of the Cubs. He threw 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (27.3 SwStr%).

This marks his 14th appearance in June, during which he has four wins and nine saves, recording a 0.511 WHIP with 22 strikeouts against one walk (42.9 K-BB%) through 13.2 innings.

• Bryan Abreu fired two clean frames and recorded four strikeouts, securing his 20th hold. He has been scoreless in his last six games, racking up 16 strikeouts versus one walk (51.8 K-BB%) over 7.2 innings.

Hierarchy Remains: Josh Hader | Bryan Abreu | Bryan King

Los Angeles Angels – After stranding the “place” runner at the top of the tenth, Connor Brogdon could not repeat the feat during the 11th. He finished with three hits, three runs (two earned), and two walks (both intentional) en route to his first loss.

• Kenley Jansen allowed Daylen Lile’s lead-off double, recorded an out on a sacrifice bunt, then a game-tying RBI single by Jacob Young, retired CJ Abrams, intentionally walked James Wood, and recorded an inning-ending strikeout of Amed Rosario, resulting in his first blown save.
• Reid Detmers stranded a runner at the top of the seventh and logged 1.1 scoreless innings, walking one and striking out three.
• Ryan Zeferjahn was tagged with his fourth blown save, giving up a hit, an earned run, and a walk during two-thirds of the seventh.

Hierarchy Remains: Kenley Jansen | Reid Detmers | Ryan Zeferjahn

Miami Marlins – Called upon with a two-run lead at the bottom of the ninth in Arizona, Ronny Henriquez locked down his third save, all on Sundays, with a clean ninth while striking out one. He threw 13 pitches (9 strikes – 69.2 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (15.4 SwStr%).

His usage patterns remain varied, but he has been scoreless in seven of his last eight appearances, posting a win, two saves, and two holds with a 1.169 WHIP while recording 11 strikeouts versus two walks (30 K-BB%) through 7.2 innings.

• Calvin Faucher allowed three hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out two in the eighth.
• Lake Bachar collected his fourth win, working two clean frames and striking out three. 

Here is a comparison over the last 30 days between some Marlins’ relievers:

Henriquez should receive a larger leverage share, and Bachar has also pitched well. Will this transpire? Time will tell, but adjusting the hierarchy with the hopes it sticks.

Updated Hierarchy: *Ronny Henriquez | *Anthony Bender | *Calvin Faucher

*= closer-by-committee

Milwaukee Brewers – One out away from being within one game of the Cubs, Trevor Megill allowed Orlando Arcia’s game-tying solo home run, resulting in his third blown save.

Megill returned for the tenth, giving up Thairo Estrada’s RBI single, scoring the “place” runner, then recorded consecutive strikeouts. He gave up two hits, two runs (one earned), and recorded two strikeouts over two innings, throwing 30 pitches (22 strikes – 73.3 Strike%) with seven whiffs (23.3 SwStr%).

• Grant Anderson was tagged with his third loss, letting the “place” runner score on Kyle Farmer’s RBI single at the top of the 11th.
• Abner Uribe was awarded his 23rd hold despite giving up two hits and an earned run while striking out two in the eighth.
• Jared Koenig tossed a scoreless seventh, yielding a hit and striking out one for his 15th hold. 

Hierarchy Remains: Trevor Megill | Abner Uribe | Jared Koenig

Philadelphia Phillies – Finishing a one-run win in Atlanta, Matt Strahm navigated around a one-out single by Ozzie Albies and a two-out walk with a game-ending flyout for his fifth save. He threw 17 pitches (10 strikes – 58.8 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (17.6 SwStr%).

The good news is that he has converted three of his four save chances over his last seven appearances. However, he has posted a 1.429 WHIP with five strikeouts against two walks in his last seven innings.

Orion Kerkering worked a scoreless eighth, facing Atlanta’s 9-1-2-3 hitters, allowing a two-out single by Matt Olson while striking out three on 17 pitches (11 strikes – 64.7 Strike%) with three whiffs (17.6 SwStr%).

He has a 1-1 record with two saves and two holds in his last seven with a 0.952 WHIP.

Recent usage patterns are why we refrain from naming a closer for this franchise with Rob Thomson as the manager. 

Hierarchy Remains: *Orion Kerkering | *Matt Strahm | Jordan Romano

*= “floating closer” concept 

Seattle Mariners – A third consecutive extra-inning game in Texas resulted in a second win for Trent Thornton. He kept the game tied, stranding the “place” runner at the top of the 11th, then, with a three-run lead, allowed an unearned run on Corey Seager’s sacrifice fly, but preserved a two-run margin. He allowed two walks (both intentional) and recorded two strikeouts during his two innings.

• Carlos Vargas could not hold a two-run lead at the bottom of the tenth, giving up Seager’s game-tying two-run home run, resulting in his fourth blown save.
• Eduard Bazardo worked a scoreless ninth, yielding a hit and striking out one.
• Casey Legumina logged two clean frames and recorded two strikeouts.

Hierarchy Remains: Andrés Muñoz | Matt Brash | Carlos Vargas

Texas Rangers – Tasked with the top of the 11th, Cole Winn stranded the “place” runner despite issuing an intentional walk (Cal Raleigh), but things did not go as well in the 12th. He allowed two hits and three runs (two earned), resulting in his first loss.

• Luke Jackson tossed 1.2 innings, giving up three hits, two runs (one earned), and three walks (all intentional), while striking out one.
• Jacob Latz worked 2.1 scoreless frames, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out four.

Hierarchy Remains: Robert Garcia | Luke Jackson | Chris Martin

Toronto Blue Jays – Locking down his 18th save, Jeff Hoffman fired a clean bottom of the ninth, striking out the side while preserving a two-run win over the Red Sox. He threw 14 pitches (71.4 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (21.4 SwStr%).

Through 11 games in June, he has two wins and converted five of six save opportunities, posting a 1.00 WHIP with 12 strikeouts versus three walks (25 K-BB%) across nine innings.

• Nick Sandlin allowed a walk during a scoreless eighth, securing his third hold.
• Brendon Little retired the side and recorded a strikeout for his 15th hold in the seventh.
• Yariel Rodríguez earned his second win, stranding two runners at the bottom of the fifth and logging 1.2 scoreless frames, yielding a hit and striking out one.

Hierarchy Remains: Jeff Hoffman | Yariel Rodríguez | Chad Green

Washington Nationals – Setting a career-high for innings in an outing, Kyle Finnegan tossed three scoreless frames, issuing two walks (one intentional – Nolan Schanuel) and recording two strikeouts for his first win. He stranded both “place” runners and threw 30 pitches (66.7 Strike%) with one whiff.

He had only retired two batters in two separate outings since June 23 before this prolonged appearance. Finnegan may not be sexy, but his best ability is availability, which will benefit a contender before the trade deadline.

• Jose A. Ferrer logged two innings, giving up two hits and an earned run on a wild pitch, while striking out two.
• Cole Henry stranded one of two inherited runners, yielding a hit during a scoreless sixth.

Hierarchy Remains: Kyle Finnegan | Jose A. Ferrer | Brad Lord

Quick Hits

• Arizona Diamondbacks: Another ill-timed implosion for Jalen Beeks. He gave up two hits, five earned runs, and four walks (one intentional), while striking out two during two-thirds of the eighth, resulting in his first loss and a second blown save. He has allowed eight earned runs in his last two outings, retiring three of 12 batters between them. 
• Atlanta Braves: During a one-run loss, Dylan Lee entered against the Phillies’ 2-3-4 lineup pocket and worked around two hits while striking out one for a scoreless top of the eighth. He was matched up against Kyle Schwarber. Raisel Iglesias tossed a clean ninth, striking out one. 
• Baltimore Orioles: Sealing a win over the Rays, but losing the combined shutout, Félix Bautista allowed Brandon Lowe’s lead-off home run and issued Yandy Díaz a walk before retiring the next three batters via strikeout. He threw 24 pitches (13 strikes – 54.2 Strike%) and produced five whiffs (20.8 SwStr%). This snapped his ten-game scoreless streak, but he has recorded multiple strikeouts in four straight games and seven of his last 11 (20 strikeouts in 11 innings – 47.6 K%).
• Boston Red Sox: Working in an eventual loss, Aroldis Chapman fired a clean top of the ninth and recorded two strikeouts, throwing 12 pitches (75 Strike%) with two whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). This extended his scoreless streak to seven games, but he last recorded a save on June 20. Greg Weissert tossed a clean eighth. Garrett Whitlock worked a clean seventh, striking out one.
• Los Angeles Dodgers: As the “bulk follower,” Justin Wrobleski earned his fourth win, taking over at the bottom of the second and logging six scoreless frames, giving up three hits and a walk while striking out six.
• San Francisco Giants: Taking over at the bottom of the seventh, Erik Miller allowed two hits, resulting in two earned runs and his first loss, while getting credit for his tenth hold. Ryan Walker took over with two runners on and two outs, allowing a walk and Kyle Teel’s go-ahead two-RBI double, giving him his fifth blown save.

Roster Updates

Boston Red Sox: Not only will Jordan Hicks be activated this week, but he will be used as a reliever, which makes him an intriguing stash candidate in case the Red Sox trade Aroldis Chapman at the end of July. He hit 100 miles per hour in his last outing:

Toronto Blue Jays: With Hoffman turning the corner, the bullpen may get another boost. Yimi García appeared in a Triple-A game on Sunday, hitting 97.7 miles per hour:

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net